BH's Time Waster: Panthers Analysis & Full 2-Round Mock

[Bear Hands]

Hey all--

I've been slowly working on this so it's not some quick thing I've thrown together.  It's my Panthers analysis & predictive NFL mock based on other team's intel, boards, rumors, needs, the whole shebang.  Why?  I honestly don't know, I'm a draft nerd it seems.  My fiance has been wondering what the hell I've been working on while "watching" LiB (clearly not wedding planning haha):

First off, let’s talk about the Panthers... 

We have 6 selections: Pick 1(1), 39(2), 93(3), 114(4), 132(4), & 145(5)

That’s nearly 1 ½ rounds between our 2nd and 3rd picks, 54 slots.  I simply don’t see Fitterer being comfortable watching countless prospects we’ve been looking at drop off the board waiting 54 picks to go again.

I’m talking guys that could get early playing time i.e. Julius Brents DB, Steven Avila OG, Jonathan Mingo WR, Tyler Scott WR, Zach Charbonnet RB, Sam LaPorta TE, Dorian Williams LB, lots of prospects we’ve met with for visits that fit in that potential gap. And I’m sure there’s more they quite like.  

Now, am I saying let’s be impatient and trade down a ton? Absolutely not. Trade up from 93? Possibly, but there's little ammo.  I think a likely scenario we’ve all discussed is the slight trade down to gain a higher top-100 pick than 93.  I’d rather gain an impact add than accruing a bunch of late rounders at this point. 

That being said, this is all dependent on who is available come 39.  So then, who are the players that I deem unpassable, too high of value to trade down if there?  There’s a handful, but not a ton:

3 TEs: Dalton Kincaid/Sam LaPorta/Michael Mayer

2 EDGE: Will McDonald IV Iowa State, Tuli USC, BJ Ojulari LSU

3 WR: Jordan Addison USC, Zay Flowers BC

1 RB: Jahmyr Gibbs Alabama

 

With that being said, I can see both directions happening.  It comes down to these teams in the 20s-early 30s and who they covet.  My instinct is it will in fact be EDGE, TE, & WR.  So it’s really close to call.

So, here’s my mock, trying my best to put myself in each team’s shoes, scoping their intel, boards, & rumors for who makes sense:

 

NFL Mock Draft

The Trades:

1) IND receives #3, #105 | AZ receives #4, #34, 2024 3rd & late rd

2) HOU receives #8 | ATL receives #12, #33+24’ R4

3) DET receives #39, #93(3) | CAR receives #48, 81(3), 151(5)

4) GB receives #42, 2024 1st, Conditional 2025 pick | NYJ receive Aaron Rodgers

 

The Draft: ROUND 1 

1. CAR - Bryce Young QB Alabama
   • I am officially going all in on the Bryce Young chatter.  He is the guy, it is not smoke.  Write in the pick and let’s go.
2. HOU - Will Anderson Jr. DE Alabama 
   • Yep, I’m buying the no-QB rumors. No CJ or even Richardson.  You’re at #2 overall, take the best player if you’re not sold on the passers.  If they’re not over the moon, they’ll have no problem letting CJ fall to their division rival & shuffling QBs down the board..
3. IND (from AZ) - CJ Stroud QB Ohio State
   • With Houston passing on Stroud, the Colts see their opportunity to land the other QB you could start day 1. The incentive for a 3-4 swap is that AZ still gets their top choice at 4 because they’re obviously not going QB.  Just assures IND there's no other traders swooping in.  I just don't see AR fitting.
4. AZ (from IND) - Tyree Wilson DT/DE Texas Tech
   • They need to rebuild the DL and it can start with Wilson.  Top PR win rate to show for and has a ton of upside with his lean yet huge athletic size.  They have a ways to go roster retooling wise, but this is a start.
5. SEA - Anthony Richardson QB Florida 
   • This is the fit that I’ve just seen for a while and it just makes sense.  They’re here because of the Wilson trade and don’t see picking high for a bit with their capital this year.  Landing Richardson with his upside would be perfect for them behind Geno. It’s time to take a big swing in Seattle. I think Carrol wants to.  
6. DET- Devon Witherspoon CB Illinois 
   • Can totally see this happening with his buddy Kirby already in house and the Lions well represented at his impressive pro-day, I think DW at 6 is a real possibility.  The top CBs are viewed higher than perceived.
7. LVR - Christian Gonzalez CB Oregon 
   • Fills a big need and he’s a great dude. They need to make strides on defense with a leader in the secondary.  I don’t see them pouncing on Levis. Could see them trade up w/AZ in this scenario but IND gets the edge.        
8. HOU (from ATL) - Will Levis QB Kentucky 
   • With Vegas passing on Levis, HOU has their sights on a QB & trades up from 12 to jump TEN and other potential trade partners.      
9. CHI - Jalen Carter DT Georgia  
   • They’ve had a busy offseason and decide to take the gamble with Carter.  This is the furthest I see him falling unless there are bigger flags being uncovered in meetings. They take him over the offensive tackles.
10. PHI - Nolan Smith OLB Georgia 
    • I see this fit as one that just makes a lot of sense to me.  Seems like he could really compliment their defense well and they can use him all over the place.  Eagles won’t be this high often so I don’t think a trade down makes sense, take a top talent.  
11. TEN - Paris Johnson Jr. LT Ohio State
    • With QBs off the board, many holes, and limited capital, the Titans grab a top tackle, arguably their biggest need.  He’s the top tackle prospect for many, makes perfect sense.  
12. ATL (from HOU) - Bijan Robinson RB Texas 
    • I could honestly see this happening even if they stay at 8.  Bijan keeps them on pace in the division with new offenses getting established in CAR & NO.
13. NYJ - Darnell Wright OT Tennessee
    • A big need for the Jets. I see a decent OL drop after R1 so they jump on one of the last higher end LT prospects available. They won’t let Wright fall to the Patriots who I think is the top tackle in the class.
14. NE - Peter Skoronski LT Northwestern
    • NE also has a big need at tackle, they stay put, and fill it with Skoronski.   
15. GB - Myles Murphy DT/DE Clemson
    • Green Bay passes on WRs to land a top pass rusher who falls a tad.  People keep wanting to give them weapons, but WRs meeting their criteria are limited in this draft.
16. WAS - Dalton Kincaid TE Utah
    • Porter seems like the default pick here so frequently, that I’m convinced it won’t happen.  If they are truly committed to Howell, they’ve got some good young WRs, RBs, so round it out and get the highest upside TE to compliment.  
17. PIT - Broderick Jones OT Georgia 
    • PIT could trade up to secure a tackle with their capital, but stay put and land a big bodied Jones to help with their line. Left tackle is a big need and they’re done messing around.  Dan Moore looked like the late rounder he is in 22’.  
18. DET - Lukas Van Ness DE/EDGE Iowa 
    • A draft of Witherspoon & Van Ness would be incredible for this defense.  
19. TB - Calijah Kancey DE Pittsburgh
    • A run on pass rusher continues.  Big need & great fit from what I see.
20. SEA - Joey Porter Jr. CB Penn State 
    • I think this would be a pretty awesome pickup for Seattle.  AR & Porter would be a pretty sweet get R1 for them.  Fans want the hyper-athletic outlier defenders, but I can see them going a far different route this year.  This is the big prototype SEA outside corner.  
21. LAC - Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR Ohio State
    • From my view, he is exactly what Herbert needs to get this offense to the next level.  Would fit in well and help out immediately. WR1=off the board.
22. BAL - Deonte Banks CB Maryland 
    • I’m not so sure they’re locked in on a WR.  Banks stays in state and lands with the Ravens.  This move fills a decent need and he goes to a team that sounds interested.    
23. MIN - Brian Branch S/N Alabama 
    • They’ve brought him in for a visit.  Seems like a Flores type of guy and they need to bolster their secondary.  Not sold on the Hooker idea everyone floats around. This is where the first tier starts to drop on defense--they land a leader.
24. JAX - O’Cyrus Torrence OG Florida
    • It’s time to protect Trevor and they keep it local with a big body.  Fills a need but is also a prospect that really matches well.  Etienne & Trevor will no doubt approve. 
25. NYG - Jordan Addison WR USC
    • I think this could work out quite nicely for the Giants. Reminds me of Diggs, and I think Schoen/Daboll have taken notice.  
26. DAL - Darnell Washington TE Georgia 
    • Dak has never had a target like this. High upside to pair with Pollard & Lamb.  Could be a bit high, but I can see a team gamble on the big man.
27. BUF - Zay Flowers WR Boston College
    • This is a fun pick that would really get this offense going.  He’s what they’ve been looking for in guys like Beasley and McKenzie.  Get a young shifty slot guy that can also play outside.  Do it all and open the field right up for this offense.
28. CIN - Jahmyr Gibbs RB Alabama
    • A TE or DB is the popular choice but if Gibbs is available here, he’d be hard to pass on.  Mixon’s future is looking iffy and Burrow could thrive even more with a pass-catching RB & this receiving room.
29. NO - Michael Mayer TE Notre Dame
    • This would be an interesting fit.  Giving Carr a much needed weapon to complement Olave would be big.  Thomas and Kamara are wildcards and they need a stabilizing force.  Continues the transformation of NO’s offense.
30. PHI - Ade Adebawore DE NWD
    • They stay patient at 30 and land a great fit on defense.  Roseman is apparently all about him and I can definitely see this happening.
31. KC - Will McDonald IV EDGE Iowa State 
    • They’re in need of pass rushers and I’m fairly convinced they’re going after one here over WR.  There will be more than a few to choose from.  There’s great upside with Will.  

 

ROUND 2:

1. PIT - Drew Sanders LB Arkansas 
   • This one just kind of fits for me.  Not the first to think so.  
2. ATL (from HOU) - Josh Downs WR UNC
   • They shoot for a WR with their new star RB in place.  Giving Ridder legit weapons on offense is key to see what he’s got.  And yep, Downs over Johnston & Hyatt. He'd go well with London & Pitts.  
3. AZ - Quentin Johnston WR TCU
   • I can see them going OL but they do need a bit of everything right now for Kyler.  They give him a fancy weapon to help out with this fluttering team.
4. AZ (from IND) - Tuli Tuipulotu OLB/EDGE USC 
   • Arizona decides to keep bolstering their front-7 for Gannon’s defense.  Tuli is way under the radar but his strength & grit is legit. 
5. LAR - BJ Ojulari EDGE LSU  
   • 1st pick for them–Need to hit with this and can see them making a move for a high upside DL.  A Hooker trade up is not out of the cards, but I think Jake Haener is a perfect target for them R3-4.
6. SEA - John Michael Schmitz C Minnesota
   • I like this fit a lot.  Big need.  Apparently there has been heavy interest on SEA’s part.
7. LVR - Hendon Hooker QB Tennessee 
   • They follow up their patient but nice CB selection with a QB in R2. Could see this in a trade up but they stay put here.  
8. DET (from CAR) - Jack Campbell LB Iowa 
   • DET gets aggressive to land a leader at ILB to bring this defense to the next level after boosting their DL and secondary earlier. Big move with a thin LB class, filling a need with a pure football talent. 
9. NO -  Mazi Smith DT Michigan 
   • Fills a need, they’ve met with him and word is there is real interest.  See this as a strong fit.  They need to bolster their IDL.
10. TEN - Jalin Hyatt WR TEN 
    • Vrabel sounds to be in charge and after going OL, they decide to shoot for a deep threat to pair with Burks.  Hyatt stays in state to help out Tannehill for his last hoorah.
11. GB (from NYJ) - Luke Musgrave TE Oregon State
    • Love needs a bit of help outside of the RBs, Doubs & Watson.  A young QBs best friend can be a receiving TE.  Historically, TEs take time to make an impact, but Musgrave has a lot of potential.  
12. NYJ - Trenton Simpson LB Clemson
    • Robert Saleh wants his Fred Warner type in New York and Simpson would provide that and then some.  You can play him all over the place.  
13. ATL - Keion White DE/EDGE Georgia Tech
    • Pass Rusher has been the perpetual need for ATL for a decade-plus.  Time to invest. Local kid.
14. GB - Bryan Bresee DT Clemson
    • GB turns around and grabs a much needed dude on the DL that has to land somewhere.  Don’t see a dramatic fall for him as some predict.
15. NE - Sam LaPorta TE Iowa
    • NE grabs an all-around TE that adds a bit more stabilization than their recent FAs at the spot.  A proven midwestern TE program’s top weapon that can block.
16. WAS - Kelee Ringo CB UGA 
    • Rivera gets himself a much needed corner for their defense.  Campbell could’ve been a target if the Lions didn’t trade up.
17. CAR (from DET) - Julius Brents DB Kansas State
    • Brents is too damn appealing to pass on.  Elite ceiling as a prospect.  I believe teams are way high on him.  The length, athleticism, flexibility to play outside or nickel (big for Evero) is awesome. Huge impact player and leader for KSU.  I can see him even if they stay at 39.
18. PHI (from PIT) - Emmanuel Forbes CB Miss State 
    • I think Forbes (Turner and also Ringo) are being overlooked because of their size, but their skills are undeniable.  He wouldn’t get thrust in immediately but would have a chance to play (& quickly).
19. TB - Anton Harrison OT Oklahoma 
    • Tackle is a big need and if they miss out in R1, can see this as a viable follow up pick.
20. MIA - Daiyan Henley LB WSU
    • First pick for Miami & they need a man in the middle on defense (among many other things).  OL, RB, & TE are legit needs but Henley could bring a lot to the table.   
21. SEA - Keeanu Benton IDL Wisconsin
    • NT/DT is a need for them and if they take the gamble with Richardson, they look towards the DL round 2.  
22. CHI - Dawand Jones OT Ohio State
    • They take a decent tackle prospect after landing Carter R1
23. LAC - DJ Turner CB Michigan
    • Chargers swoop in and take a swing on Turner to help their DBs.  He’s a great talent, there’s a big range of where I can see him land.
24. DET - Zach Charbonnet RB UCLA 
    • This would be a really fun choice after Detroit goes heavy defense to start the draft.  Brings what Jamaal Williams did, but with fresh legs.  
25. JAX - Felix Anudike-Uzomah EDGE Kansas State
    • They’re in need of additional pass rushers and Felix could be a solid add to their front.  A bit of work needed but he has a ton of potential. 
26. NYG - Steven Avila C/G TCU
    • Interior OL needs a bit of improvement, particularly center. They continue to help out Jones.  
27. DAL - Dorian Williams LB Tulane
    • Time for a fresh defensive leader in the house.  A LB is needed and following up a nice weapon like Washington with Williams would seem like a successful scenario.  I think this guy is liked way more than people realize.  
28. BUF - Cody Mauch OT NDSU
    • They really need a potential upgrade at RT.  The playoffs showed that much.  Mauch makes a lot of sense for Buffalo.
29. CIN - Antonio Johnson S Texas A&M 
    • Safety is a pretty obvious need but I don’t see them needing to force it R1.  This would be a great get for Cincy.
30. CHI - Joe Tippman IOL Wisconsin
    • Bears have reportedly been scouting him pretty strongly.  It’s a need and he doesn’t have to move very far.  Heads from Madison to Chicago.      
31. PHI - Tyjae Spears RB Tulane 
    • Spears is a stud & he lands in a perfect spot.  Penny is not a for sure thing and they do like having a capable RB room.  Fits their mold and could honestly become their main guy sooner than later with Penny’s injury history.
32. KC - Jonathan Mingo WR Ole Miss
    • They don’t have much going on at WR and Mingo gives Mahomes a guy with size.  A welcomed asset & can honestly start for them.  

 

Notable Unselected:  

Tyler Scott WR, Jordan Battle S Alabama, Gervon Dexter Jr. DT Florida, Isaiah Foskey OLB/DE, Siaki Ika NT Baylor, Tyrique Stevenson CB Miami, Rashee Rice WR SMU, Clark Phillips CB Utah, K, Tank Dell WR Houston, Cam Smith CB USC

 

Other Prospect Fits I Like:

Tyler Scott WR Cincinnati - Panthers!

Jake Haener QB Fresno State - LA Rams, R3

Michael Wilson WR Stanford - GB Packers, R3-4

Jayden Reed WR Michigan State - KC Chiefs, R3-4

DeWayne McBride RB UAB - Bills, R4

 

[Bear Hands]

And now..the CAR Draft:

 

R1-#1: Bryce Young QB Alabama

This just seems like it’s happening to me.  New franchise QB in the house.

 

R2 #48 (from DET): Julius Brents DB Kansas State

He is one of the athletic outliers that guys like Dugger & Chinn have been in previous classes that’s upside is too good to ignore.  One of my favorite prospects.  When he’s given glimpses of his potential, it is really special.  Honestly, I’m fine staying at 39 and landing him.

 

R3 #81 (from DET): Rashee Rice WR SMU

If we’re able to push up a bit, I’d prefer one of the big WRs like Tillman, Hutchinson, Rice or Mingo.  Mingo & Tillman may not last but Rice reminds me of an Aiyuk meets Godwin.  He can play outside as an X or work as a Z in the slot.  Gets separation, is physical, just needs to get coached up on route running.   

 

R4-1 #114: KJ Henry OLB/EDGE Clemson 

This is a guy I feel we’ve quietly been high on.  There’s a really nice tier in this range of Byron Young, Isaiah McGuire, Henry, Hampton, it’s really solid.  And Henry has some of the higher upside of the bunch.  

 

R4-2 #132: Jay Ward CB/S LSU

Doubling down on the secondary. I simply don’t trust Henderson & Taylor with Horn & Jackson’s injury history.  Ward has been overlooked and was a huge part of the LSU defense. Great length, loved by his teammates, hard-nosed, locker room presence and great abilities on-field to show for. From what Reich describes, Ward fits his bill as a player in more than a few ways.  

 

R5-1: Israel Abanikanda RB Pitt

Unsure if he lasts but this is my RB target.  This is a dude I like a lot for a RB committee. He’s not taking over as a main back so may slip a tad, but his speed & quickness combined with a no-nonsense, hit-the-hole style is ridiculous & could be a great piece for our team.  We simply need a home run threat on offense.  I view it as a gaping hole.  Here’s the burner.

 

R5-2 (from DET): Braeden Daniels T/G Utah

I wouldn’t overlook the need for OL depth.  Daniels could be a nice get.  He can play guard but also be a potential future RT behind Moton.  This type of pick you can’t bank too much on but you can find guards/swing-tackles around here.  

 

-If we finagle another late rounder somehow to gain a 6th:

 

Late R6: Cameron Latu TE Alabama

Bring in a familiar face for Bryce that has the potential to grow as a TE here.  

Edited April 18, 2023 by Bear Hands

[WOW!!]

Good draft ..

 My issues is 2 secondary guys and Latu is going higher then the 5th round..

What happened to pick 93??

Edited April 18, 2023 by WOW!!

[Bear Hands]

10 minutes ago, WOW!! said:

Good draft ..

 My issues is 2 secondary guys and Latu is going higher then the 5th round..

What happened to pick 93??

Yeah can't fill every hole but wanted to throw the Latu idea out there.  Think 2 DBs could be important, especially for Evero's defense.  It's hard to fill every hole.  

I just don't trust Taylor & Henderson coming in with Jackson & Horn's injury history.  I know we picked up Rowe who can play NB, but he hasn't been that special.  Feel like we need speed and an added punch.  I also just love Ward and wanted to give him a shout.   

Oh & the trade I mocked was 39 & 93 for 48, 81, & 151.  I think it maintains prospect value w/that 2nd rounder but moves us up 12 in the 3rd and nets an additional pick.  No problem staying put, I'd probably lean Brents even at 39.  Just think he's got it. 

Edited April 18, 2023 by Bear Hands

[RenoCarolina]

I just get the feeling that Hooker is moving ahead of Levis.

 

Also I'm sure you did a lot of research on that DET trade back but it sure doesn't look like they gave up enough to move up 11 spots.  I would be miffed.

Edited April 18, 2023 by RenoCarolina

[WOW!!]

1 minute ago, Bear Hands said:

Yeah can't fill every hole but wanted to throw the Latu idea out there.  Think 2 DBs could be important, especially for Evero's defense.  It's hard to fill every hole.  

I just don't trust Taylor & Henderson coming in with Jackson & Horn's injury history.  I know we picked up Rowe who can play NB, but he hasn't been that special.  Feel like we need speed and an added punch.  I also just love Ward and wanted to give him a shout.   

Oh & the trade I mocked was 39 & 93 for 48, 81, & 151.  I think it maintains prospect value w/that 2nd rounder but moves us up 8 in the 3rd and nets an additional pick.  No problem staying put, I'd probably lean Brents even at 39.  Just think he's got it. 

The simulators might be wrong but I’ve been able consistently to trade down 10 or 9 spots in the 2nd not do a pick switch in the 3rd and still get a extra 5th.. So I usually end up with 

a 2nd round pick in the late 40’ early 50’ 

2 3rd rounders and 2 5ths..

Again the simulators could be off..

[Bear Hands]

8 minutes ago, WOW!! said:

The simulators might be wrong but I’ve been able consistently to trade down 10 or 9 spots in the 2nd not do a pick switch in the 3rd and still get a extra 5th.. So I usually end up with 

a 2nd round pick in the late 40’ early 50’ 

2 3rd rounders and 2 5ths..

Again the simulators could be off..

It's kind of why I added perceived reaches with my late rounders, to account for me being a bit conservative in the trade eval.  Now, if we can pull off lets say a 39 & 114 for 48 & 81 swap, I'd be ALL over that.  Then, we're looking at...

1-Bryce Young

2-48-Julius Brents

3-81-Rashee Rice 

3-93 - This could be where there's a more significant upgrade than KJ Henry.  Byron Young EDGE, Schoonmaker at TE, McBride RB, some nice possibilities.   

4-132 - TE/OL/RBs galore IMO

5-145 - TE/OL/RB

I just like this slight trade down idea.  But even if it's a stay put at 39, I'd honestly take Brents in this scenario.  Hyatt or Campbell could get the edge, but it's close for me.  

[WOW!!]

[WOW!!]

I Fittmagic this poo..

[Bear Hands]

Hoping to make this less just posting mocks my man.  Appreciate the responses though 

[Bear Hands]

In respect to the pressers today, they were trying to imply the front-7 is an area to be addressed without much word on the secondary, which I find could be a misdirect.  They did however reaffirm multiple times that the length & speed combo with high football IQ is what they look for.  

For me, that's Brents to a tee at DB, who we've met with.  

At EDGE, that would be Will McDonald IV, BJ Ojulari, Derrick Hall as well.

Daiyan Henley & Dorian Williams are two LBs who has the length.  A bit leaner but could definitely be targets.  

  

[Captain Morgan]

good stuff BH, so you're not going with the recent talk about an early IOL?

[Bear Hands]

2 minutes ago, Captain Morgan said:

good stuff BH, so you're not going with the recent talk about an early IOL?

Avila could definitely be in play here, but I just like Brents for us. 

I'm also low-key a Cody Mauch fan, but I think there's a secondary need with how Evero uses NBs that if a guy on our value charts is there, that takes slight priority over filler RG (or) swing tackle depth.  

[DeSim]

If Hyatt is available there at 39, I don't see us trading down and we pick him instead.