Pick #39, don't hold your breath for a WR or TE

[AU-panther]

It's impossible to predict what a front office might do during the draft, but you can look at free agency and get a pretty good idea.

Of our free agents we singed 4 with decent contracts that were either TEs or WRs: Thomas ($3.325m APY), Hurst ($7.25m), Chark ($5m), and Theilen ($8.33m).  To put those contracts in perspective only 20 players have higher APY than Thomas, those are get on the field contracts. 

2023 NFL Free Agents and Free Agency (overthecap.com)

Like I said earlier, nothing is guaranteed, maybe some WR or TE with great value falls, but If I had to guess I'm thinking DE, LB, or CB at 39.  

From a lot of reports this is a very strong TE class, we might decide we can get good value later.   By a lot of reports the WR class is rather thin, I could see us not drafting one at all, or taking more of a project guy later.

 

Edited April 13, 2023 by AU-panther
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[Daddy_Uncle]

DE, LB or CB would be great at 39. All are deep position groups and we could probably get a steal

[AU-panther]

Just now, Daddy_Uncle said:

DE, LB or CB would be great at 39. All are deep position groups and we could probably get a steal

True, and that is something they might have took into account when trying to decide where to spend money in free agency.

You could counter that argument and say the TE class is really deep so why did we spend in free agency, but to be honest with a potential rookie QB, I always thought we would look for experienced skill positions.

[Leeroy Jenkins Ph.D.]

I disagree. Simply because of the current WR contracts. Adam Thielen is literally the only WR we have on contract in two years. Contracts will expire after this season for DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault, Preston Williams, Stephen Sullivan, CJ Sanders, and Derek Wright. Shi Smith and Terrace Marshall are expired the following season. We need a young WR to develop with a 4 year rookie contract.

[Bear Hands]

I lean EDGE.  There are two pass rushers that could be quite ideal in Ojulari or McDonald IV, prime for the taking.  Even Adebawore out of NW.  So many good defensive options.  

Campbell or Simpson could likely be available. 

Following up a franchise QB pick with a dude to eventually lead this defense would be pretty nice.  

Can't entirely deny going TE or WR but the defensive prospects are really great in this range.

[AU-panther]

7 minutes ago, Leeroy Jenkins Ph.D. said:

I disagree. Simply because of the current WR contracts. Adam Thielen is literally the only WR we have on contract in two years. Contracts will expire after this season for DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault, Preston Williams, Stephen Sullivan, CJ Sanders, and Derek Wright. Shi Smith and Terrace Marshall are expired the following season. We need a young WR to develop with a 4 year rookie contract.

but at 39 you are probably looking for someone to contribute this year and you just spent money on two guys to contribute this year.  

Add in the fact a lot of people consider this WR class weak, if we draft one, I expect it to be later.

Here again, nothing is set in stone, just my opinion.

Also if you are going to look at who is on contract at two years you just can't look at the WRs.

How many 3-4 DEs on contract in two years?

How many LBs on contract in two years?

Not really loaded their either.

 

 

Edited April 13, 2023 by AU-panther
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[MHS831]

I think it will be an edge or CB.  I think CB would freak people out, but I see it as (perhaps) a bigger need.

The OLB/edge position could feature more Luvu and maybe even Chinn with Grugier-Hill and Smith filling in at Luvu's ILB spot.  That could minimize the need for an edge rusher...and I have always thought, "Don't grab your edge in round 2..."  but this year just seems excessively deep at edge.  Edge players tend to do well at combines, all star games, and pro days because they are incredible athletes that feast in those settings.

CB, however, is an interesting story.   Jackson is coming off an achilles tear and they take time.  He was injured in November, so his recovery could take up to nine months (August, 2023).  Horn has had serious injuries to his foot and wrist, both putting him on IR.  Behind them, you have Henderson who has spent 3 seasons with a PFF score in the 50s--he is a serviceable backup--preferably, a #4.  Taylor has also been rated in the low 50s (PFF) and he is also a backup--preferably, a #5. 

Now, we are switching to a 3-4 and that will involve more cover 2 and 4--(zones) and that could work to their favor--I dunno.  I still think we need another guy with starting potential.

 

[Ricky Spanish]

1 minute ago, Leeroy Jenkins Ph.D. said:

I disagree. Simply because of the current WR contracts. Adam Thielen is literally the only WR we have on contract in two years. Contracts will expire after this season for DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault, Preston Williams, Stephen Sullivan, CJ Sanders, and Derek Wright. Shi Smith and Terrace Marshall are expired the following season. We need a young WR to develop with a 4 year rookie contract.

This is true, but we will also have a ton of cap next season with the opportunity to sign one of the impending FA WRs that may hit the market. All of the following are on the last years of their contracts and may potentially hit FA:

Tyler Boyd (Likely to hit FA if they sign higgins)

Tee Higgins (Likely to hit FA if they keep boyd to save money for burrow)

Jerry Jeudy

CeeDee Lamb (Probably won't hit FA)

Justin Jefferson... (Severely doubt it, but vikings could balk at a large contract, who knows?)

Calvin Ridley

Donovan Peoples-Jones (Quietly having a good start to his career, may sneak up and make bank next offseason)

KJ Osborn

There are plenty others with potential to be low end WR1s as well, but I doubt every single one of the guys listed above is re-signed to a new deal next offseason and we should be players in signing whoever makes it to FA.

[jayboogieman]

I think Fitt trades 39 for more picks

[Bear Hands]

If other FOs view the EDGE and CB class as highly as it is hyped, it may actually push a WR right into our laps.  I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility. I've seen Seattle & PIT fans gushing about Will McDonald IV or Adebawore with their late firsts.  High SPARQ guys with length, power, and speed.  

I mean, if it's true many teams only have S-N with a Round 1 grade, then it really isn't out of the realm of possibility that Hyatt, Johnston and/or Downs slip.  Addison I have a hard time seeing fall, but those other three, yeah.  

 

 

[Bear Hands]

2 minutes ago, jayboogieman said:

I think Fitt trades 39 for more picks

It would be nice to have less of a gap between 39 and 93.  Our little palindrome.

I.E. -- GB has 45 & 78.  DET has 48 & 81, both combos match pretty well with trade value charts for 39 & 93, with them needing to hand out another future mid-rounder to make it even.  DET especially given they already have 2 firsts and #55, they could get aggressive to trade up for another guy they like.  We land a nice 3rd rounder.  39 & 114 for 48 & 81 isn't far fetched either.  4 picks in the top 100. 

The Detroit option actually has me a bit interested.  Could get our assets looking like this:

1 overall, 48(mid 2), 81(3), 93(3), 132(4), 145(5)

[MHS831]

10 minutes ago, jayboogieman said:

I think Fitt trades 39 for more picks

A real possibility if he can get it.  I hear that the talent levels off in the late first and does not drop again until the late second/early third.  Gonna be interesting to watch him navigate this draft.

I think (as I read words and use my brain) that the Panthers are more interested in a G than we realize--one poster made a good point--they like BC more as a swing T.  He was the weak link last year, and finding a LG is not hard to do.

I also find their complete refusal to address CB in the offseason a bit interesting. 

Who knows what the edge situation is because we do not know how people will be used.

I think they will address WR in the third or after.  I think G will be a shocker earlier than we all expected.  You heard it here second.

[vorbis]

I really like the trade down 5-10 spots for maybe another day 2 and day 3 pick option. give Evero lots of bullets to beef up his defense for the playoff push.

as for positions, the Panthers have a glaring opening at nickel CB. I know they've talked about Chinn as the big nickel and Rowe has experience there, but Evero's eyes lit up when talking about the importance of the nickel position at his introductory press conference. it's clear they have a high value on that position.

Edited April 13, 2023 by vorbis

[Tr3ach]

55 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

It's impossible to predict what a front office might do during the draft, but you can look at free agency and get a pretty good idea.

Of our free agents we singed 4 with decent contracts that were either TEs or WRs: Thomas ($3.325m APY), Hurst ($7.25m), Chark ($5m), and Theilen ($8.33m).  To put those contracts in perspective only 20 players have higher APY than Thomas, those are get on the field contracts. 

2023 NFL Free Agents and Free Agency (overthecap.com)

Like I said earlier, nothing is guaranteed, maybe some WR or TE with great value falls, but If I had to guess I'm thinking DE, LB, or CB at 39.  

From a lot of reports this is a very strong TE class, we might decide we can get good value later.   By a lot of reports the WR class is rather thin, I could see us not drafting one at all, or taking more of a project guy later.

 

Possibly but i disagree slightly.  Chark was a 1 year deal so he is not any kind of long term solution and Thielen and Hurst are older vets who are known to be smart players and could be seen as coaches on the field to younger players.  Kind of like Dalton will be for our rookie qb except more on the field will be expected from Thielen and Hurst.  All that said I think the fact we had Tre Flowers in for a workout the other day and haven't signed any CBs and Evero's scheme relies heavily on the secondary makes me feel like CB is pretty high on their potential priorities. 

Edited April 13, 2023 by Tr3ach