Panther Needs Assessment

[MHS831]

In the weeks prior to the draft, it can get a bit slow.  So I thought I would share.  I decided to analyze each position to the best of my ability. Then I wanted to develop a strategy to enter the draft, based on need.  I do these kinds of things to help me see it more clearly--but I thought I would share since I went to so much trouble.  I realize there will be disagreements, but I wanted to see if we are pretty much on the same page--to me, we have 5 needs we MUST address in the draft, and I would love to see us grab a TE, but I doubt we do.

DEFENSE

OFFENSE

MHS' Ranking of Needs:  Here I considered the difficulty finding a quality player at that position, the impact the expected player would have, the immediate need, and the long-term need.  This gets very difficult, but I settled with the following:

1. QB.  Obviously

2. Edge.  As of now, Burns is the only outside threat to pressure the QB.  I expect Barno to improve and we know that we have depth in Haynes, but YGM ain't a good fit or good player (so far).  Coincidentally, rarely do you have a draft where you can find quality edge players in early round 2--but that is the case this year.  Grab one.

3.  Cornerback.  Horn and Jackson have been injured quite a bit, and Jackson is coming off an injury that could rob him of his best asset--quickness.  Henderson and Taylor are most famous for appearances on Mike Evans' 2022 highlight video. 

4.  Wide Receiver.  The Panthers need a play maker, and the future needs some talent. Some will put this need in front of CB and maybe even OLB/Edge, but I do not see it that way.  Chark is often injured (hopefully that is not the case here) and Thielen is reportedly getting older.  We can't trust Smith or TMJ yet, but I have faith that TMJ showed signs of the light coming on last year and Smith is the player we will upgrade. 

5. Offensive Line:  The Panthers need solid depth at all times, especially if they are going to draft Young.  Personally, I question T depth (Coleman?  not sure if he is there answer there), and I think G could use another player. If we take a hybrid, I would hope for a T/G hybrid as opposed to a C/G hybrid.  C (Bozeman, McCray, Mays, and Tecklenburg is covered)

6. TE.  Hurst is not the long-term solution, but he should be strong in 2023.  Tremble should emerge from the developmental label into a solid TE, and I am high on Ricci as a receiving TE/hback.  Thomas is great as a #3 TE; he just should not start.  Still, with this draft, a solid TE is likely to drop to day 3 and if that happens, you take the BPA and upgrade your TE group.

Based on my assumptions, here is my draft strategy.  It is 100% accurate and it is exactly what the Panthers will do.  That is all.  I have spoken.

(Seriously--it all depends on how things shake out--I could see the Panthers taking a WR or CB with the 39th pick.)

1.	Round 1, pick 1	Quarterback: Bryce or CJ
2.	Round 2, pick 39	OLB/ Edge: There are many ways we can throw players at this situation, but a pure, elite pass rusher is needed to take pressure off Burns and the inside pass rush.  Panthers have had known contact with Ojulari (Edge, LSU) and Hall (Edge, Auburn), which suggests possible round 2 curiosity for an Edge.  NOTE: These players should last throughout the second round, so Fitterer may trade back to the end.  Names to watch:  BJ Ojulari, LSU; Will McDonald IV, Iowa St; Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Kansas State; Derek Hall, Auburn….
3.	Round 3, pick 93	Cornerback:  This may be a bigger need than WR because our CBs are often injured and their backups are often burned. The 3-4 will allow more zone in covers 2 and 4, so maybe this is not as big a need as thought. This draft has some talent at CB, and some could fall to late day 2. The Panthers have had Kansas State CB Julius Brents in for a visit, as have many other teams.  That suggests third round curiosity.  Names to Watch: Brents; Turner, Michigan; Hodges-Tomlinson, TCU; Rush, South Carolina; Smith, Minnesota; Ricks, Alabama…
4.	Round 4, pick 114	Wide Receiver:  There are surprising names that could fall past the third round. Charlie Jones and Jonathan Mingo have had visits with the Panthers, which could suggest a WR on day 3.  Names to watch:  Rice, SMU; Dell, Houston; Scott, Cincinnati; Mims, Oklahoma; and Perry, Wake Forest, Jones, Purdue; and Mingo, Mississippi….
5.	Round 4, pick 132	Tight End:  While the Panthers may not show (on paper) an immediate need at TE, the class is deep, and a quality TE can possibly be found at the end of round 4. Perhaps a warning that this won’t happen is the fact that the Panthers do not seem to be showing interest at this time--  No TE are known to have interacted with the Panthers to date. This could be for OL depth and not TE.  Names to Watch: Schoonmaker, Michigan; Wylie, Cincinnati; Latu, Alabama…
6.	Round 5, pick 145	Offensive Line:  With Mays and McCray backing up Christensen, Bozeman, and Corbett, perhaps a swing T to develop is in order. A few players who are injured right now may become a day 3 value, so I am targeting people who could fall.  Names to Watch:  Vorhees (injured G/T), USC; Javon Foster (LT), Missouri; McLendon, (RT/G) Georgia; McFadden (T/G), Clemson; Rouse (swing T), Stanford, Anthony Bradford, OG, LSU …
7.	Undrafted Free Agents	Names to Watch: Bumper Pool, ILB, Oklahoma

[RenoCarolina]

I started out thinking, "this guy has too much free time".  But that quickly changed to appreciation.  Add in the fact that it isn't a Young/Stroud smokescreen thread and the day is looking pretty good!

I hope we go edge at 39 but worry the value won't be there.  So many teams need edge rushers.

[ForJimmy]

I love it.  Thanks for displaying it all out for us!

[MHS831]

27 minutes ago, RenoCarolina said:

I started out thinking, "this guy has too much free time".  But that quickly changed to appreciation.  Add in the fact that it isn't a Young/Stroud smokescreen thread and the day is looking pretty good!

I hope we go edge at 39 but worry the value won't be there.  So many teams need edge rushers.

Thanks.  I do have too much free time--sitting in a rest home with my aunt (I am her closest relative) who is on hospice care---this is really a nice escape during the waiting.

[panther4life]

48 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

In the weeks prior to the draft, it can get a bit slow.  So I thought I would share.  I decided to analyze each position to the best of my ability. Then I wanted to develop a strategy to enter the draft, based on need.  I do these kinds of things to help me see it more clearly--but I thought I would share since I went to so much trouble.  I realize there will be disagreements, but I wanted to see if we are pretty much on the same page--to me, we have 5 needs we MUST address in the draft, and I would love to see us grab a TE, but I doubt we do.

DEFENSE

OFFENSE

MHS' Ranking of Needs:  Here I considered the difficulty finding a quality player at that position, the impact the expected player would have, the immediate need, and the long-term need.  This gets very difficult, but I settled with the following:

1. QB.  Obviously

2. Edge.  As of now, Burns is the only outside threat to pressure the QB.  I expect Barno to improve and we know that we have depth in Haynes, but YGM ain't a good fit or good player (so far).  Coincidentally, rarely do you have a draft where you can find quality edge players in early round 2--but that is the case this year.  Grab one.

3.  Cornerback.  Horn and Jackson have been injured quite a bit, and Jackson is coming off an injury that could rob him of his best asset--quickness.  Henderson and Taylor are most famous for appearances on Mike Evans' 2022 highlight video. 

4.  Wide Receiver.  The Panthers need a play maker, and the future needs some talent. Some will put this need in front of CB and maybe even OLB/Edge, but I do not see it that way.  Chark is often injured (hopefully that is not the case here) and Thielen is reportedly getting older.  We can't trust Smith or TMJ yet, but I have faith that TMJ showed signs of the light coming on last year and Smith is the player we will upgrade. 

5. Offensive Line:  The Panthers need solid depth at all times, especially if they are going to draft Young.  Personally, I question T depth (Coleman?  not sure if he is there answer there), and I think G could use another player. If we take a hybrid, I would hope for a T/G hybrid as opposed to a C/G hybrid.  C (Bozeman, McCray, Mays, and Tecklenburg is covered)

6. TE.  Hurst is not the long-term solution, but he should be strong in 2023.  Tremble should emerge from the developmental label into a solid TE, and I am high on Ricci as a receiving TE/hback.  Thomas is great as a #3 TE; he just should not start.  Still, with this draft, a solid TE is likely to drop to day 3 and if that happens, you take the BPA and upgrade your TE group.

Based on my assumptions, here is my draft strategy.  It is 100% accurate and it is exactly what the Panthers will do.  That is all.  I have spoken.

(Seriously--it all depends on how things shake out--I could see the Panthers taking a WR or CB with the 39th pick.)

1.	Round 1, pick 1	Quarterback: Bryce or CJ
2.	Round 2, pick 39	OLB/ Edge: There are many ways we can throw players at this situation, but a pure, elite pass rusher is needed to take pressure off Burns and the inside pass rush.  Panthers have had known contact with Ojulari (Edge, LSU) and Hall (Edge, Auburn), which suggests possible round 2 curiosity for an Edge.  NOTE: These players should last throughout the second round, so Fitterer may trade back to the end.  Names to watch:  BJ Ojulari, LSU; Will McDonald IV, Iowa St; Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Kansas State; Derek Hall, Auburn….
3.	Round 3, pick 93	Cornerback:  This may be a bigger need than WR because our CBs are often injured and their backups are often burned. The 3-4 will allow more zone in covers 2 and 4, so maybe this is not as big a need as thought. This draft has some talent at CB, and some could fall to late day 2. The Panthers have had Kansas State CB Julius Brents in for a visit, as have many other teams.  That suggests third round curiosity.  Names to Watch: Brents; Turner, Michigan; Hodges-Tomlinson, TCU; Rush, South Carolina; Smith, Minnesota; Ricks, Alabama…
4.	Round 4, pick 114	Wide Receiver:  There are surprising names that could fall past the third round. Charlie Jones and Jonathan Mingo have had visits with the Panthers, which could suggest a WR on day 3.  Names to watch:  Rice, SMU; Dell, Houston; Scott, Cincinnati; Mims, Oklahoma; and Perry, Wake Forest, Jones, Purdue; and Mingo, Mississippi….
5.	Round 4, pick 132	Tight End:  While the Panthers may not show (on paper) an immediate need at TE, the class is deep, and a quality TE can possibly be found at the end of round 4. Perhaps a warning that this won’t happen is the fact that the Panthers do not seem to be showing interest at this time--  No TE are known to have interacted with the Panthers to date. This could be for OL depth and not TE.  Names to Watch: Schoonmaker, Michigan; Wylie, Cincinnati; Latu, Alabama…
6.	Round 5, pick 145	Offensive Line:  With Mays and McCray backing up Christensen, Bozeman, and Corbett, perhaps a swing T to develop is in order. A few players who are injured right now may become a day 3 value, so I am targeting people who could fall.  Names to Watch:  Vorhees (injured G/T), USC; Javon Foster (LT), Missouri; McLendon, (RT/G) Georgia; McFadden (T/G), Clemson; Rouse (swing T), Stanford, Anthony Bradford, OG, LSU …
7.	Undrafted Free Agents	Names to Watch: Bumper Pool, ILB, Oklahoma

Love this type of content, thanks for sharing!

[panther4life]

Great assessment. Based on years prior I think there’s always great value to be had at WR/CB in round 2. 

 

[KSpan]

Thanks to this thread, I learned there is an actual person named 'Bumper Pool'. 

[RenoCarolina]

22 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Thanks.  I do have too much free time--sitting in a rest home with my aunt (I am her closest relative) who is on hospice care---this is really a nice escape during the waiting.

Been there, done that with my mom.  Tough time but can also be a blessing for both of you.  

I hope this assessment gets pinned.

Edited April 12, 2023 by RenoCarolina

[mccjeff]

You’re a good man Charlie Brown. And thanks for the assessment.

[MHS831]

28 minutes ago, RenoCarolina said:

 

I hope we go edge at 39 but worry the value won't be there.  So many teams need edge rushers.

Same thought, but I counted 5 Edge players who will be taken in the first round. On average, 8 Defensive Linemen are taken in the first round, and Dane Brugler's top 100 list confirms this, with 5 edge players and three DTs--however,  I counted another 5 who I think are impact players and they are listed between picks 33 and 60:  33. Ojulari (LSU), 44. Felix (Kansas State), 46. Will McDonald (Iowa State), 47. White (Ga Tech), 58.  Derrick Hall (Auburn); and 60. Foskey (Notre Dame).   We have had Ojulari and Hall in for visits.

An interesting point I came across in an article from a KC Chief website concerning "success rates" for positions taken in various rounds:

DB:  Second round: 46% success rate; third round: 24% success rate.

WR: Second round: 49% success rate; third round: 25% success rate.

TE: Second round 50% success rate; third round: 39% success rate.

Forgetting about edge rushers because the stats did not specifically categorize 3-4 OLBs, it seems the best chances for success would be to take a WR in round 2 and a TE in round 3.  However, I do not see the WR group being that great in round 2--if 5 go in round 1 (Jaxon Smith-Nj, Addison, Flowers, Hyatt, and Johnson), I see Downs as the only possible selection.

I do not see there being a wide selection of CBs from which to choose in round 2 either, unless 35. Forbes or 36. Ringo drop.

Therefore, I would expect the team to go Edge at 39 and maybe TE at 92 or so, based solely on these percentages and the talent that could be there at the time of the pick. If so, we are in trouble at CB and WR>

It is hard to gauge edge rushers according to the info I had because they seem to be included with DL and LBs are another group.  However, I think the edge rushers are deep in this draft. 

 

[MHS831]

26 minutes ago, panther4life said:

Great assessment. Based on years prior I think there’s always great value to be had at WR/CB in round 2. 

 

I would not be surprised to see a WR drop (Hyatt, Johnson) or CB (Forbes, Ringo).

[MHS831]

23 minutes ago, KSpan said:

Thanks to this thread, I learned there is an actual person named 'Bumper Pool'. 

In college I knew a "Rusty Nail."

[Mr. Scot]

1 hour ago, MHS831 said:

Thanks.  I do have too much free time--sitting in a rest home with my aunt (I am her closest relative) who is on hospice care---this is really a nice escape during the waiting.

Understood.

And good work...

[Soul Rebel]

Outstanding synopsis and if I could give more pie, I would. 

Thank you for pointing out the larger need at CB that seems to be not as high on others' respective radars. I have a feeling a R1 talent will be there at 39 and we will have to go bpa between CB, EDGE and maybe TE if a guy like Washington, Mayer or Musgrave falls. 

I think DJ won't be the same guy after his latest injury and will turn 28 this year. Not out of his prime yet, but we do need to plan for a future running mate opposite Horn. 

I wonder if Jayden Reed can make it to R4.