Is Bryce a #1 prospect if he didn’t go to Bama?

[Wundrbread33]

14 hours ago, ForJimmy said:

I don’t understand? Where are you assuming he ends up in this scenario? He was a top recruit so is it UGA? OSU? USC? Oregon?

Whoops I forgot to respond. It’s unrealistic to imagine him at Western Kentucky or something, so maybe if he went to Mizzou, Ole Miss, Kentucky, etc. 

 

Middle SEC squad. An 8+ win major school. 

[Cary Kollins]

18 minutes ago, Cary Kollins said:

On the flip flip side, if Stroud doesn’t play out of his mind the final game of his college career which he had two weeks to prepare for, he might be a borderline top ten pick.

 

can’t edit so I’ll try this….CJ actually had over a month to prepare for Georgia 

[OldhamA]

12 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

No clue. That's the big question marks on all the QBs coming out of the dominant blue chip programs. What will they look like when their team isn't head and shoulders better than their competition nearly every week? And yeah, I know Bama didn't have their usual talent but let's be honest? How many better rosters were there in college football? Honestly probably fewer than 5.

If you factor in both sides of the ball there's 1 - Georgia.

If you're just talking offence there's 2 - Georgia and Ohio St.

Everyone else is playing for 4th place and is some way behind.

[OldhamA]

26 minutes ago, Cary Kollins said:

On the flip flip side, if Stroud doesn’t play out of his mind the final game of his college career which he had two weeks to prepare for, he might be a borderline top ten pick.

Does that account for Stroud's stats being significantly better than Young's this year?

[stan786]

Answers an easy “It Depends” for me. I think like I’m the NFL where you go impacts your development a lot. Bryce found a home with a coach that doesn’t generally let assumptions and priors dictate what he does. Saban wants to win and will do anything to do it.
 

That probably did give Bryce a better opportunity to get the starting job as the Great Filter for short QBs is ever present in High School and College. A lot of coaches would have gotten nervous about his size and found ways to pass him over or tried to move him to a new position. 

Also him succeeding in the SEC at a premier school does give some weight to his size doesn’t matter arguments. Saban got him an OC with pro roots and trusted him to help teach O Brien what Alabama likes to do, and I’m sure O’Brien taught Bryce a ton on what it is to be a legit QB prospect.

Does Bryce get that opportunity at a smaller school? Doubtful good coaches look for good programs, so in a self fulfilling prophecy kind of way being a top end recruit gives you access to top end coaches and playing time at top programs which adds to your development.

CJ and Bryce were blessed with what they were surrounded by but they also had to develop, they both had to compete against other top QBs and take that spot. I think holding either a teams against them is short sighted. They may not have ascended to where they are but I think they both could easily have found their way into the debate at a smaller school. It may have been less clear though.

[ForJimmy]

10 minutes ago, Wundrbread33 said:

Whoops I forgot to respond. It’s unrealistic to imagine him at Western Kentucky or something, so maybe if he went to Mizzou, Ole Miss, Kentucky, etc. 

 

Middle SEC squad. An 8+ win major school. 

Hmm that makes it interesting, but being a top recruit out of HS and going to a SEC School would still get him a lot of TV time.  Ole Miss started off hot and loss 4 of the last 5 games.  I think Young is a lot better than Dart so they probably win 2 or more of those losses.  Getting them ranked high and possibly in the playoffs after being a top ranked recruit would definitely get the media's attention.  I would think he still probably is in consideration if he went there.  Eli made it happen, but he had the Manning name.

[SOJA]

got to be honest, besides Gibbs Bama had a really down year last year in terms of talent. That elevates Bryce even more in my eyes. He kinda was the team last year

[Wundrbread33]

2 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

Hmm that makes it interesting, but being a top recruit out of HS and going to a SEC School would still get him a lot of TV time.  Ole Miss started off hot and loss 4 of the last 5 games.  I think Young is a lot better than Dart so they probably win 2 or more of those losses.  Getting them ranked high and possibly in the playoffs after being a top ranked recruit would definitely get the media's attention.  I would think he still probably is in consideration if he went there.  Eli made it happen, but he had the Manning name.

Yeah I guess another angle would be to tackle Mac Jones in the same way. He was a relatively high recruit, wasn’t physically impressive, but performed well at Bama. 
 

Wonder if he would have been a 1st rounder had he QB’d Mizzou. 
 

Ultimately I know it’s impossible to know, but I wish there was a way to quantify how much being at Bama/Ohio St. adds to the prestige of a prospect outside of their actual ability and performance. 
 

And let’s say if Bryce did in fact lose draft position if he was at Ole Miss., it doesn’t mean he wouldn’t be a great pro. If being at Ole Miss got him drafted 20th or in the 2nd round, he might still end up the best QB in the draft. 

[Wundrbread33]

5 minutes ago, SOJA said:

got to be honest, besides Gibbs Bama had a really down year last year in terms of talent. That elevates Bryce even more in my eyes. He kinda was the team last year

That’s fair, but some prospects get elevated for that, and some get punished. 
 

Sam Howell is the counter example. Highly touted two years ago. His weapons all got drafted. He still performed rather well, had to run more, just not as good (understandable), and then he falls from grace. 
 

It’s inconsistent (not saying you are, just the “draft narrative” stuff as a whole).

[hepcat]

53 minutes ago, Cary Kollins said:

On the flip flip side, if Stroud doesn’t play out of his mind the final game of his college career which he had two weeks to prepare for, he might be a borderline top ten pick.

He was still a notch above the rest of the prospects this season even without that game. Maybe he wouldn't have been considered for #1 overall, though. Playing great in a big game always looks good for QB prospects. 

[ForJimmy]

16 minutes ago, Wundrbread33 said:

Yeah I guess another angle would be to tackle Mac Jones in the same way. He was a relatively high recruit, wasn’t physically impressive, but performed well at Bama. 
 

Wonder if he would have been a 1st rounder had he QB’d Mizzou. 
 

Ultimately I know it’s impossible to know, but I wish there was a way to quantify how much being at Bama/Ohio St. adds to the prestige of a prospect outside of their actual ability and performance. 
 

And let’s say if Bryce did in fact lose draft position if he was at Ole Miss., it doesn’t mean he wouldn’t be a great pro. If being at Ole Miss got him drafted 20th or in the 2nd round, he might still end up the best QB in the draft. 

Yeah especially when you mentioned Kentucky.  Levis gets a bad rap on this board, but he had nothing outside of a decent RB on that roster.  Young might end up injured behind that Kentucky OL.  Like you said it's hard to tell outside of an educated guess.

[rippadonn]

15 hours ago, Wundrbread33 said:

The question kinda answers itself.

 

 

NO. Wouldn't have time to throw or scramble with dudes in his face instantly. You got to stand up read, fire. CJ is great at that. You can't improv in the NFL, especially at his size/height, that gets dangerous.

NFL isn't a game gentleman, it's WAR. I straight up have serious concerns for his health.

[Cary Kollins]

36 minutes ago, OldhamA said:

Does that account for Stroud's stats being significantly better than Young's this year?

show me which stats are significantly better

 

And it does matter Stroud was throwing to a generational WR in Marvin Harrison Jr. and the top WR in this draft’s class as well. Meanwhile Young was throwing to the equivalent of Philly Brown and Brenton Bersin last year, so take the raw stats with bag of salt.

 

 

[rebelrouser]

14 hours ago, WUnderhill said:

Kind of a confusing take considering Alabama isn’t exactly known for getting QBs drafted even in the first round until just the past few years with Tua and Mac Jones. Has Alabama ever had a QB go #1?

Yes. His 2022 Bama team was defined by poor oline pass blocking, poor rb blitz pickups, and mediocre receivers.  This would be a better question if he came out in '21 with a much better oline and wr's. Essentially '21 Bama = '22 Ohio State so the better question is whether CJ would be a no. 1 prospect if he had not attended OSU. Both inquiries are off though as they both distanced themselves from the rest of the field.