Why I believe the pick will be AR-15

[rebelrouser]

7 hours ago, philw5289 said:

Richardson won the combine. It was also said he was the most impressive during interviews

We have an experienced intelligent staff. They won't be fooled by the shiny toy and will realize that these two factors carry very little weight. Game film and the S2 will be better predictors and they will lead them to Stroud or Young.

[LinvilleGorge]

11 minutes ago, OldhamA said:

Why waste what? We've simply upgraded our WR and TE rooms to lower-mid league standard.

It had to be done regardless of who we drafted to play QB.

Yeah, it kinda baffles me how so many of our fans are acting like we have the makings of an elite offense. Our OL is legit (if health at OG doesn't detail it), but our receivers as a group are below average. I honestly think borderline top 10 is about this group's ceiling unless this rookie QB is REALLY fuging good.

I mean, we're acting like a 33 year old clearly on the downslope Adam Thielen, made of glass DJ Chark, and a career underperforming former 1st round TE  are gonna turn us into the Greatest Show on Turf overnight.

We needed some bandaids and we got some, but I don't see any long-term answers out of these guys unless Chark finds some magic health elixir in Charlotte.

[Tr3ach]

7 hours ago, philw5289 said:

Honestly I’m good with any QB but knowing this organization I think we go Richardson. 
 

#1 the timing of the trade. We traded for the #1 pick shortly after the combine had wrapped up. Honestly Stroud and Young did their thing but everyone knows Richardson won the combine. It was also said he was the most impressive during interviews. The panthers observed all this and knew they wanted him so they made it official by offering DJ Moore as soon as they got back. 
 

#2 Tepper- tepper is a businessman and above everything else he wants to make money. Look at the turf field and the rock hill disaster. It’s the viral era. Richardson is doing backflips and throwing the ball at the ceiling. Yeah that’s whatever but it generates traction and social media views. He moves the needle. He’s the most exciting, he’ll bring the most fans and sell the most jerseys. 
 

#3 Our coaching staff. With all the experience our staff has i think they all believe that they can make any of these QBs work. Richardson has the highest ceiling and that will make them look the best when he works out. 
 

#4 The Josh McCown scouting video. He made all these videos with the underdog channel prior to getting the panthers job. The one breakdown not on there? AR-15. Rumors are that he made the video but does not want it released yet due to the fact that it will give away our pick. McCown feels confident in what Richardson brings. 
 

again this is all speculation but I feel like it’s not too far fetched. Regardless I love the position and I love debating this draft pick. This is a great time to be a panthers fan and I look forward to our future. Keep Pounding 

You can just say that you want the pick to be Richardson.  Thats all this post adds up to.  You dont draft a player becsuse of their combine performance.   You are just getting caught up in the speed numbers.  He was clearly behind the other qbs in the passing drills.  Also on your theory about the Mccown youtube video, thats totally made up.  After Mccown was hired Josh Norris said they never got to that video.  At the time it was between making the AR video and a video on a different subject (i cant remember what) and they chose the other topic not knowing mccown would be gone before they got to the AR one and how they wished they had been able to make that one for views.

[Shocker]

19 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Yeah, it kinda baffles me how so many of our fans are acting like we have the makings of an elite offense. Our OL is legit (if health at OG doesn't detail it), but our receivers as a group are below average. I honestly think borderline top 10 is about this group's ceiling unless this rookie QB is REALLY fuging good.

I mean, we're acting like a 33 year old clearly on the downslope Adam Thielen, made of glass DJ Chark, and a career underperforming former 1st round TE  are gonna turn us into the Greatest Show on Turf overnight.

We needed some bandaids and we got some, but I don't see any long-term answers out of these guys unless Chark finds some magic health elixir in Charlotte.

There is a ton a realistic thinking in this post.  I personally don’t think Hurst is very dynamic either.  He is better than what we had and was decent sign.  Sanders is good and I hope he works out but we did overpay somewhat for him.  
 

It all comes down to picking the right QB for me but the other skill positions still need more talent.

[JawnyBlaze]

35 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Yeah, it kinda baffles me how so many of our fans are acting like we have the makings of an elite offense. Our OL is legit (if health at OG doesn't detail it), but our receivers as a group are below average. I honestly think borderline top 10 is about this group's ceiling unless this rookie QB is REALLY fuging good.

I mean, we're acting like a 33 year old clearly on the downslope Adam Thielen, made of glass DJ Chark, and a career underperforming former 1st round TE  are gonna turn us into the Greatest Show on Turf overnight.

We needed some bandaids and we got some, but I don't see any long-term answers out of these guys unless Chark finds some magic health elixir in Charlotte.

It’s funny, in another thread someone was saying our #1 need by far is WR and here you’re saying some people are saying we have the makings of an elite offense. I’m with you, they’re good enough for now. We don’t need to draft any particular position, but we can certainly upgrade and start building for the future as the opportunities present themselves.

With Stroud or maybe Young, with this OL and talent at skill positions I can see us realistically ranking 12-18 in offense in year one. A huge improvement, but not elite yet. Once our QB gets a couple years and we refresh the skill groups over the next couple drafts, then we might be ready to be elite thanks to the OL and foundation building done this year. 

Edited April 7, 2023 by JawnyBlaze
Though I wouldn’t call our WR group below average. Average seems a bit more fair, heh. Thielen should still be productive and an average 1 at least, Chark and TMJ are above average 2 and 3

[MechaZain]

1 hour ago, TLGPanthersFan said:

If we get Richardson it is essentially telling the fanbase to check out for the next 1 to 2 seasons. 
I think the FO thinks we are close enough to be ready to be a playoff team next season even with a rookie QB. 
No way they get Richardson and expect the fanbase and Tepper to just patiently wait till he is ready. Which may be never. 
If we were still at 9 or if we had an incumbent starter who is aging out and we needed to find his long term replacement I would be okay with Richardson. 
But not at #1 and not with Dalton as a potential starter. 
We need a rookie with potential to start day one. 
 

I wouldn't be so certain that Richardson won't start day 1. The bar is pretty low in Carolina rn and his biggest holdup is he lacks game experience.

[PappyMay]

If you wanted AR we should of traded with the Cards and kept both of our 2nd rounders.

[Smithers]

The entire “he hit the ceiling” thing is so stupid.  The pro day commentators even said it was likely scripted because the other QBs also hit the ceiling, albeit with no real media coverage.  

[Lame Duck]

5 hours ago, MHS831 said:

1. The combine rationale:  The timing of the trade---That is when Fitterer and Poles had the opportunity to meet.

2.  NFL teams are not in the business of selling Jerseys.  Winning brings in the fans, not the best athlete playing QB.  I am fairly certain that Stroud or Young, if successful (and they are most likely to be successful earlier than the boom or bust Richardson) will sell a ton of Jerseys and Tepper will not care.

3. If the coaching staff thinks they can make any of these QBs work, they do not trade up to #1-they trade up to #3.

4.  Assuming the Josh McCown video theory were accurate, wouldn't NOT discussing AR15 be an obvious giveaway wherein showing his video tape with the others would hide the fact that they like him?

The consensus around the league is that Carolina is a good landing spot for a young QB. The OL is in tact, they did not want to trade Moore, but they have done all they can to address WR with veterans; our TE is a veteran.  All signs indicate a Day 1 starter, not some super athlete who has one season of starting in college under his belt with a 54% completion percentage.  That makes no sense.  Do not let the flashing lights, bells, and whistles fool you--he is a great athlete, but not a great QB.

This plus McCown was drooling over Stroud before he got hired and McCown was drooling during Stroud pro day while Reich walked with Stroud’s mom like a proud dad with a smile on his face.  Reich loves old school pocket QBs with big arm.  There’s only one QB in first round that fits that mold.  The amount of smoke blowing around is insane.

[DrowsyJungle]

AR15 at #1 would be a huge gamble. They already gambled picks and a player away. I don't seem them taking that risk on an unproven player that only has 13 starts in college with very inconsistent play even with the amount of potential upside. 

[Mr. Scot]

8 hours ago, philw5289 said:

Honestly I’m good with any QB but knowing this organization I think we go Richardson. 
 

#1 the timing of the trade. We traded for the #1 pick shortly after the combine had wrapped up. Honestly Stroud and Young did their thing but everyone knows Richardson won the combine. It was also said he was the most impressive during interviews. The panthers observed all this and knew they wanted him so they made it official by offering DJ Moore as soon as they got back. 
 

#2 Tepper- tepper is a businessman and above everything else he wants to make money. Look at the turf field and the rock hill disaster. It’s the viral era. Richardson is doing backflips and throwing the ball at the ceiling. Yeah that’s whatever but it generates traction and social media views. He moves the needle. He’s the most exciting, he’ll bring the most fans and sell the most jerseys. 
 

#3 Our coaching staff. With all the experience our staff has i think they all believe that they can make any of these QBs work. Richardson has the highest ceiling and that will make them look the best when he works out. 
 

#4 The Josh McCown scouting video. He made all these videos with the underdog channel prior to getting the panthers job. The one breakdown not on there? AR-15. Rumors are that he made the video but does not want it released yet due to the fact that it will give away our pick. McCown feels confident in what Richardson brings. 
 

again this is all speculation but I feel like it’s not too far fetched. Regardless I love the position and I love debating this draft pick. This is a great time to be a panthers fan and I look forward to our future. Keep Pounding 

Sorry, but all of these are pretty much invalid.

1. Read the articles describing the negotiations that led to the trade. You'll find the Combine had nothing to do with the decision other than it was a chance for Scott Fitterer and Ryan Poles to meet in person.

2. Numerous sources have confirmed Tepper is leaving the decision to Fitterer and Reich. Also, football decisions that are made for non-football reasons (like marketing) invariably turn out to be stupid decisions.

3. The proficiency of our coaching staff does not mean they're going to take the biggest challenge. They and the scouting staff are still going to take the guy that is best suited for the job.

4. Sorry, but this is just tinfoil hat stuff with no actual evidence or rationale.

Multiple reports have stated that the team is in "win now" mode. That's why they've built the roster they have.

"Win now" teams don't draft three year projects.

Edited April 7, 2023 by Mr. Scot

[MHS831]

Here is one way of looking at one example of how athleticism is not that big of a factor-processing is.

2 QBs were taken in the 2022 draft.  Their 2021 NCAA stats:

1. The athletic QB, one of the top 4 QBs, was furious when he was not drafted in round 1.  In college, he had a 62% completion rate (nine percentage points above AR 15), throwing 27 TDs vs. 12 Interceptions against lesser competition.  He had 878 yards rushing.  Fun to watch.  Had a great combine/pro day.  He fell to the third round, but went to a playoff team with a chance to develop into an NFL QB. 

2. The cerebral, experienced QB with limited athletic ability (compared to the likes of the first QB) had a 71.7 completion percentage (nearly 10% better than the athletic QB and nearly 19% better than AR15), threw for over 3000 yards, throwing 19 TDs vs. 8 Interceptions against better competition.  He ran for zero yards.  He had a 3.8 GPA and scored very high on the S2 Cognition score.  This QB was not upset that he was not drafted in round 1, but was elated when he was drafted in round 7 by a playoff team, with the last pick of the draft.

2022 Pro Comparisons:

The Athlete:  0 TDs, 3 Ints. Per game-34 yards passing,  15.4 rushing yards per game.

Mr. Irrelevant:  13 TDs, 4 Ints.  Per game-152.7 yards passing, 1.4 rushing yards per game.

 

The point?  Go to combines and pro days and be amazed at the athleticism if you want, but be warned that processing is more important.  This also relates to LBs and DBs with great 40 times but it takes them longer to diagnose the play.

A lot of people are saying that AR15 has the biggest upside.  Does he though?  What about his statistics tell you that?  Someone will take him thinking Lamar Jackson or Cam Newton, but they battled injuries and were not accurate passers, for the most part. The most upside is a QB who is going to make himself better in the film room, not the weight room.  A player who knows where everyone is supposed to be and can process a WR being open before the break--a player who can change the play at the LOS without freaking out the coach.  Yes, athletic QBs are great on fourth and goal, and they often use their legs to atone for their indecision in the pocket--and they make the highlight reels. 

Bryce Young, apparently, blew away the S2 Cognition test.  I think I read Stroud was up there too. 

But look at these QBs--who has the best body to be successful?

AR15, followed by Levis.

Who has the best mind to be successful?  Young, followed by Stroud.

Who had the better stats in college--the stud athletes or the cerebral pocket passers?

Now go and pick AR15 with the number 1 pick and see how long you remain employed.

 

 

 

[WUnderhill]

24 minutes ago, Smithers said:

The entire “he hit the ceiling” thing is so stupid.  The pro day commentators even said it was likely scripted because the other QBs also hit the ceiling, albeit with no real media coverage.  

AR has come out and stated himself that it was done on purpose because Levis did it.

None of this guy’s points are any good and basically have nothing to do with real football, or reality in general for that matter.

Anytime somebody just throws out the statement that Richardson has “the highest ceiling” as if it is consensus truth, you know they are talking out of their ass. People act like you can just take any athlete and turn them into Peyton Manning in Cam Newton’s body. As if the only determining factor in being an elite passer and processor is coaching. It’s just not reality.

[LinvilleGorge]

35 minutes ago, Lame Duck said:

This plus McCown was drooling over Stroud before he got hired and McCown was drooling during Stroud pro day while Reich walked with Stroud’s mom like a proud dad with a smile on his face.  Reich loves old school pocket QBs with big arm.  There’s only one QB in first round that fits that mold.  The amount of smoke blowing around is insane.

I honestly think at this point we probably pretty much know if not outright know who our pick is going to be. Our front office and staff is just enjoying their time in the spotlight and toying with everyone. And the NFL absolutely wants this. The more intrigued there is going into draft day the better for their ratings and the media hype.