Regrading every first-round QB pick over the last 15 years

[Martin]

Pretty cool breakdown of all QBs drafted since 2008 and how they panned out:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2023-nfl-draft-regrading-every-first-round-qb-pick-over-the-last-15-years-from-trevor-lawrence-to-joe-flacco/

and yes, Cam was a home run so everyone can relax

 

[Varking]

But this isn’t a normal first overall because they are getting drafted by a team that won 7 games without an NFL QB last year. It’s a solid situation to be drafted in and they aren’t being asked to carry the team like a normal first overall pick. Home run incoming. 

[Captain Morgan]

Final tally

Over the last 15 years, there have been 45 QBs selected in the first round. Here's the final tally:

GRADE	TOTAL	PERCENT
Home run	11	24%
Mixed result	6	13%
Incomplete	8	18%
Miss	20	44%

Miss

20

44%

Miss

20

44%

 

 

[Jackie Lee]

1 hour ago, Varking said:

But this isn’t a normal first overall because they are getting drafted by a team that won 7 games without an NFL QB last year. It’s a solid situation to be drafted in and they aren’t being asked to carry the team like a normal first overall pick. Home run incoming. 

Goff went like 4-12 after the Rams traded up for him. They then hired McVay and went 11-5 or so the next year. 

[Martin]

1 hour ago, Varking said:

But this isn’t a normal first overall because they are getting drafted by a team that won 7 games without an NFL QB last year. It’s a solid situation to be drafted in and they aren’t being asked to carry the team like a normal first overall pick. Home run incoming. 

Absolutely. Our rookie QB will come to an unusually good situation, which drastically improves the change of success.

[shaqattaq]

14 hours ago, Captain Morgan said:

Final tally

Over the last 15 years, there have been 45 QBs selected in the first round. Here's the final tally:

GRADE	TOTAL	PERCENT
Home run	11	24%
Mixed result	6	13%
Incomplete	8	18%
Miss	20	44%

Miss

20

44%

Miss

20

44%

 

 

Recalculating based on #1 overall QB picks:

11 total

6 homeruns (Lawrence, Burrow, Luck, Cam, Stafford, Ryan)

1 incomplete (Murray)

3 mixed results (Mayfield, Goff, and Bradford)

1 miss (Winston)

Miss = 1     9%.

All the more reason to trade up for the cream of the crop instead of waiting to see who's left at #9 or trading for someone that another team is getting rid of.

[Mr. Scot]

16 hours ago, Varking said:

But this isn’t a normal first overall because they are getting drafted by a team that won 7 games without an NFL QB last year. It’s a solid situation to be drafted in and they aren’t being asked to carry the team like a normal first overall pick. Home run incoming. 

For something like that, you might need to recalculate based on weather teams earned the first overall pick or traded up for it.

(I don't really think that happens all that often though)

But yeah, the truth is that a lot of quarterbacks taken high in the first round are going to teams who are regularly in that position for a reason.

[Martin]

1 hour ago, shaqattaq said:

Recalculating based on #1 overall QB picks:

11 total

6 homeruns (Lawrence, Burrow, Luck, Cam, Stafford, Ryan)

1 incomplete (Murray)

3 mixed results (Mayfield, Goff, and Bradford)

1 miss (Winston)

Miss = 1     9%.

All the more reason to trade up for the cream of the crop instead of waiting to see who's left at #9 or trading for someone that another team is getting rid of.

Nice, thank you for doing that!

[SOJA]

1 hour ago, shaqattaq said:

Recalculating based on #1 overall QB picks:

11 total

6 homeruns (Lawrence, Burrow, Luck, Cam, Stafford, Ryan)

1 incomplete (Murray)

3 mixed results (Mayfield, Goff, and Bradford)

1 miss (Winston)

Miss = 1     9%.

All the more reason to trade up for the cream of the crop instead of waiting to see who's left at #9 or trading for someone that another team is getting rid of.

this. this this. 

You increase your chances with a greater talent pool, idk why ppl don't get this 

[TLGPanthersFan]

Our 1st overall selection is definitely coming into a team that could be contenders as soon as 2024 and be a surprise playoff team in 2023. 
Hope we do ruin that 1st pick we gave the Bears after the poo talking the Bears fans have been doing the last few weeks. 

[Murph]

Trubisky with a pro bowl appearance is a miss but Baker Mayfield is a mixed result? 
 

 

[Ocpanthertew714]

I actually enjoyed that article. Although, I disagree with some of the assessments, nonetheless great article. 

[AU-panther]

12 hours ago, shaqattaq said:

Recalculating based on #1 overall QB picks:

11 total

6 homeruns (Lawrence, Burrow, Luck, Cam, Stafford, Ryan)

1 incomplete (Murray)

3 mixed results (Mayfield, Goff, and Bradford)

1 miss (Winston)

Miss = 1     9%.

All the more reason to trade up for the cream of the crop instead of waiting to see who's left at #9 or trading for someone that another team is getting rid of.

 but even then you are talking 6/11, which is only a little over 50% chance of people a homerun.

Fact is finding a great QB isn't easy, no matter where you pick.  Alse the chance of both Stroud and Young being great is rather slim.  This is why I think it might be somewhat misguided to focus so much on Young's size.  People are acting like both are automatically going to be great so just take the bigger QB.  You have to do to an honest assessment of their chances of being really good.

Do you want the QB that you think has the better chance of being good, but maybe a smaller chance of getting hurt occasionally or the guy you think has less of a chance of being good but maybe less of a chance of getting hurt?

Now if you truly think Stroud has as good of a chance of getting a homerun then of course you take the bigger guy.