Chris Mortensen: Bryce Young is the pick, they all love Bryce Young

[MHS831]

2 hours ago, The Huddler said:

i just made a true statement.  thats all. if young stays healthy and becomes an MVP we will feel stupid. 

 

 

When you are small and playing in the biggest, most prestigious program in modern college football, you are aware of it.  Here is why I don't think Young will be as injury prone as we all think.

Bryce processes very quickly--the average QB in the NFL gets rid of the ball in 2.4-2.7 seconds.  In college, Young's throws were 0.2 second quicker than average.  Furthermore, 87% of his passes were catchable. (Stroud, known for his accuracy, boasts that 85% of his passes were catchable.)

He rates a 7/7 in the areas of "poise" and "clutch" (Stroud was a 6/7 in both categories) and, according to Greg Cosell, "Young is a high-level prospect with a PhD in the nuances, details and subtleties of the position, starting with his pre-snap process and an outstanding feel for the game, intuitively understanding where everyone is on the field and often moving to find space to deliver the ball and make spectacular second reaction plays."

He is tough and smart in the pocket.

While his size is a legitimate concern, Young's intelligence, fast release, movement in the pocket, and the NFL rules that protect QBs might make his size concerns minimal.  Furthermore, he runs a 4.52 40, so he has a degree of escapability.  Cam Newton seemed like a tank with a cannon for an arm running down the field, but his size and hesitation in the pocket proved to be his downfall---he was injured based on the wear and tear---so a big QB getting hit a lot might be more dangerous than a small QB getting hit once in a while.

I am glad this decision is not mine.

Young: https://www.the33rdteam.com/nfl-draft/2023/players/bryce-young-49632/

Stroud: https://www.the33rdteam.com/nfl-draft/2023/players/c-j-stroud-49609/overview/

Based on these comparisons, Young is slightly better than Stroud in the areas they chose to measure.  Is it enough?  therin lies the dilemma.

Edited April 5, 2023 by MHS831

[Mr. Scot]

9 minutes ago, backINblack28 said:

Fair point--do you have the articles handy that refer to that how that timeline shook out?

 

[Mr. Scot]

11 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

When you are small and playing in the biggest, most prestigious program in modern college football, you are aware of it.  Here is why I don't think Young will be as injury prone as we all think.

Bryce processes very quickly--the average QB in the NFL gets rid of the ball in 2.4-2.7 seconds.  In college, Young's throws were 0.2 second quicker than average.  Furthermore, 87% of his passes were catchable. (Stroud, known for his accuracy, boasts that 85% of his passes were catchable.)

He rates a 7/7 in the areas of "poise" and "clutch" (Stroud was a 6/7 in both categories) and, according to Greg Cosell, "Young is a high-level prospect with a PhD in the nuances, details and subtleties of the position, starting with his pre-snap process and an outstanding feel for the game, intuitively understanding where everyone is on the field and often moving to find space to deliver the ball and make spectacular second reaction plays."

He is tough and smart in the pocket.

While his size is a legitimate concern, Young's intelligence, fast release, movement in the pocket, and the NFL rules that protect QBs might make his size concerns minimal.  Furthermore, he runs a 4.52 40, so he has a degree of escapability.  Cam Newton seemed like a tank with a cannon for an arm running down the field, but his size and hesitation in the pocket proved to be his downfall---he was injured based on the wear and tear---so a big QB getting hit a lot might be more dangerous than a small QB getting hit once in a while.

I am glad this decision is not mine.

Young: https://www.the33rdteam.com/nfl-draft/2023/players/bryce-young-49632/

Stroud: https://www.the33rdteam.com/nfl-draft/2023/players/c-j-stroud-49609/overview/

Based on these comparisons, Young is slightly better than Stroud in the areas they chose to measure.  Is it enough?  therin lies the dilemma.

This is where somebody cites the old statement about the best ability being  availability.

(in this case it's me, I'm the one who said it)

I think that statement is essentially the nexus of everyone's concerns.

[Eric4280]

1 hour ago, Mr. Scot said:

Just gonna throw this in here...

 

Ooof. Would’ve made the 9 pick VERY interesting.

[Ivory Panther]

12 minutes ago, backINblack28 said:

Fair point--do you have the articles handy that refer to that how that timeline shook out?

It was in the athletic from April 3rd I believe. Below is an excerpt: 

Poles took the information with him to the scouting combine in Indianapolis. The Panthers were the first team to reach out.

“They were the first ones to kind of kick it off,” he said, “which tells you a lot.”

Poles worked out of the Hyatt in downtown Indianapolis, away from the bustle of the JW Marriott complex and where other Bears staff members stayed. He said he “slow-played” things at first, then heard from Fitterer, whom he knew well from their days on the road as scouts.

The two GMs met in Poles’ suite as the combine got underway on Monday, Feb. 27. Fitterer said the initial meeting lasted about 20 minutes. He realized fairly quickly he wouldn’t be able to make the jump from 9 to 1 with picks alone.

[backINblack28]

4 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

 

I feel like this timeline doesn't detract from the point I made about us making a lot of these decisions after the combine.  This article talks about how Fitterer pulled an offer before the combine and then after, he decided to not only put it back on the table but add a superstar WR to it.  That he pulled it before the combine and was okay with adding to it and going thru with it after to me isn't nothing esp that it's juxtaposed with Bryce Young not throwing there.  Doesn't mean we're going to do something or not but it lines up with what Vegas and the consensus of mock drafts think.

[run-run-pass-punt]

Nobody is the pick...until April 27 when the card is handed in. Until then...heads talk.

[Ivory Panther]

2 minutes ago, backINblack28 said:

I feel like this timeline doesn't detract from the point I made about us making a lot of these decisions after the combine.  This article talks about how Fitterer pulled an offer before the combine and then after, he decided to not only put it back on the table but add a superstar WR to it.  That he pulled it before the combine and was okay with adding to it and going thru with it after to me isn't nothing esp that it's juxtaposed with Bryce Young not throwing there.  Doesn't mean we're going to do something or not but it lines up with what Vegas and the consensus of mock drafts think.

If that's how you read into it, I feel you.

for me, it's pretty clear that it had nothing to do with any combine performance. Pulling the offer was part of the negotiation tactics.

if the combine performance was the trigger, the talks wouldn't have started before the performance IMO.

[MHS831]

13 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

This is where somebody cites the old statement about the best ability being  availability.

(in this case it's me, I'm the one who said it)

I think that statement is essentially the nexus of everyone's concerns.

It is--and we did not seem to have that concern when Cam was plowing over LBs on third and 8 for a first down-(I did, but I was called a racist and Cam Hater).  I worry too--dang if they put his brain in AR15's body--I would know which QB I want.

[MechaZain]

2 hours ago, frankw said:

Yes it cuts whichever way whoever wants to make it fit their agenda.

All I hope for is we pick the best of the 3. And it might not end up being Young with all his talk of football IQ it could end up AR reaches his ceiling with all his physical intangibles we don't know. But if two or three years from now the consensus is we ended up with the worst or second best of the three it's going to be a major source of talk and folks who were entrenched in one camp or another will end up with egg on their face. Somebody will. Like I said I just hope it isn't us. We deserve good things for all we've been through.

My money's on no consensus in three years

[backINblack28]

6 minutes ago, Ivory Panther said:

If that's how you read into it, I feel you.

for me, it's pretty clear that it had nothing to do with any combine performance. Pulling the offer was part of the negotiation tactics.

if the combine performance was the trigger, the talks wouldn't have started before the performance IMO.

I mean--the combine going well could have also just made it more obvious that if they liked Young and then they saw good things out of Stroud it could still mean that they preferred / might still prefer Young but that the depth of QB at 1 was something they then felt stronger about.

I barely lean Stroud and would be happy either way. I trust that whoever they pick showed our staff enough to separate themselves from whoever they don't pick--for me personally, right now that separator is the injury/height questions coupled with the fact that it does seem like sometimes it seems laborious for Young to make some throws--but I trust that if we draft him there's something they are seeing there that eases those concerns.  When we beat the Bucs at home, I loved that we beat Tom Brady but I just remembered thinking well, this probably cost us Bryce Young.  Maybe not... But then after UGA/OSU game/watching all three of AR/BY/CJ I started to slightly lean Stroud. Mostly just excited going forward for whoever it is.

[glenwo2]

If Bryce is the pick, so be it.

Hopefully he can stay healthy.

[Ivory Panther]

8 minutes ago, backINblack28 said:

I mean--the combine going well could have also just made it more obvious that if they liked Young and then they saw good things out of Stroud it could still mean that they preferred / might still prefer Young but that the depth of QB at 1 was something they then felt stronger about.

I barely lean Stroud and would be happy either way. I trust that whoever they pick showed our staff enough to separate themselves from whoever they don't pick--for me personally, right now that separator is the injury/height questions coupled with the fact that it does seem like sometimes it seems laborious for Young to make some throws--but I trust that if we draft him there's something they are seeing there that eases those concerns.  When we beat the Bucs at home, I loved that we beat Tom Brady but I just remembered thinking well, this probably cost us Bryce Young.  Maybe not... But then after UGA/OSU game/watching all three of AR/BY/CJ I started to slightly lean Stroud. Mostly just excited going forward for whoever it is.

Yea, as fans, we don't get to talk to these players, so we have no idea what's behind the ears or work ethic etc...

So we have to trust the staff to make the right choice.

I think it's interesting that many ppl like yourself had Bryce as QB1 the entire year until the UGA.

watching that game, I was enamored with CJ as well. He played the game of his life and answered every questions. If you get that CJ for the rest of his career, obviously that is a homerun pick.

Can he do it again? I'm sure he can!

How often can he do it moving forward, I don't know...

So I just can't change my mind over one heck of a performance, knowing that athletes have great performances from time to time.

[backINblack28]

20 minutes ago, Ivory Panther said:

Yea, as fans, we don't get to talk to these players, so we have no idea what's behind the ears or work ethic etc...

So we have to trust the staff to make the right choice.

I think it's interesting that many ppl like yourself had Bryce as QB1 the entire year until the UGA.

watching that game, I was enamored with CJ as well. He played the game of his life and answered every questions. If you get that CJ for the rest of his career, obviously that is a homerun pick.

Can he do it again? I'm sure he can!

How often can he do it moving forward, I don't know...

So I just can't change my mind over one heck of a performance, knowing that athletes have great performances from time to time.

well in my eyes, the biggest Stroud questions were that he had a supporting cast that at least last year from a WR perspective, Young did not have anything close to. For me, the Iowa and Michigan games from Stroud offered moments where I wowed at the TV--several times in each game, and sat there thinking "even though his receivers run the routes, catch the balls he throws, get open, and extend plays with their talent, he is still making eye popping throws, processing insanely quick," and for me his process/timing from looking off/making decision to throw to the moment when the ball hits the WR hands is one of the fastest processes I've seen in college. 

We can make tons of comparisons to what Stroud could be in the league based on his strengths but all of the guys that come up (Dak, Carr, Goff, Burrow, etc) I did not see that specific strength from in college (didn't watch Carr at Fresno St tbh but saw plenty of the others and Burrow is mostly an exception because his one year was just that--exceptional). 

So--after the Iowa/Michigan tapes, THEN that made the UGA performance in the playoffs with the stakes against the best defense available to face provide the final test/answer to my question of 'is CJ elevating talent around him or are they elevating him" to which I think the answer can be both but that CJ is also doing insanely impressive things regardless of the talent surrounding him. 

I think Young does the same--I've never questioned that about him in high school or college.  I do have questions about it translating as well to pro, but I think it's going to be exciting AF to find out, and I think the prospect of having a non-traditional QB is normally the more exciting prospect of rooting for and being right about---but that's the inherent risk too is that when/if it doesn't, we're sitting here staring a lot of "told you so" in the face. 

I'll add this too--in some respects with that it almost seems like Houston has the easier path here. They just take whoever is left between the two and if THEY are wrong--they don't have to answer to "why didn't you take the other guy?" At the same time--i've said it before. I like that we put our nuts on the table and did the thing and that I don't have to ask 'which retread QBs are available/can they play at league average for 8 games' anymore. I get a dude whose jersey I can wear while he runs out the tunnel for half a decade or a full one. I'm excited AF for that.

Edited April 5, 2023 by backINblack28