Chris Mortensen: Bryce Young is the pick, they all love Bryce Young

[Martin]

If it is Young I hope I’m completely wrong with my concerns. I’m a Panthers supporter first and foremost. But I would be a bit disappointed, no doubt. But on the other hand, what do I know about picking a QB?

I also assume there are limited leaks at this point. Anyone who claims to have sources are just making it up, and essentially just sharing their best guess. 

[MHS831]

3 hours ago, SOJA said:

There is so much media smoke around Bryce that it seems like the Panthers are almost desperately leaking we like him so Houston trades up to 1 and we take Stroud at 2

I am seeing no indication that we are trading this pick--they will have a favorite by April 27 and they will not risk it.  Just my opinion.

[Martin]

2 minutes ago, Jaxel said:

I'm not worried about Young's arm strength, he has more than enough to make all the throws. 

My concern is that it looks like he really have to step in to his throws as he can’t just flick his wrist like most top QBs. But I might be wrong.

[Mr. Scot]

22 minutes ago, Martin said:

My favorite is Brugler from the Athletic. He’s really, really good.

Agree on Brugler...

[Mr. Scot]

10 minutes ago, Jaxel said:

I'm not worried about Young's arm strength, he has more than enough to make all the throws. 

Agree with this, though it's fair to point out Stroud's deep ball is better.

Don't think anyone is that worried about how good he can play so much as they are how long he can keep playing.

[backINblack28]

1 hour ago, Ivory Panther said:

According to several reports (including Joe Person of the athletic), the deal started to be discussed Monday & continued throughout the week.CJ worked out on Saturday...

I understand the logic of, they traded because they saw CJ workout, but it doesn't appear to be the case since the intent to trade started at least 5 days before he even worked out. 

On top of it, Fitt & Reich both said the tape was more important than the workouts.

So I doubt that the workout was the reason for the trade, although without the insight from Joe Person of the athletic, it would be logical to think so.

 

Fair point--do you have the articles handy that refer to that how that timeline shook out?

[CamTheMan]

For me, the QB debate comes down to one phrase: "I don't know."

There are so many qualities about Bryce Young that point to him being a generational talent but there are also qualities that make me say "I don't know" if he's going to be able to get away with that in the NFL. His drop back depth being so deep, his time to throw being so long, etc. Obviously his frame is talked about and that's another question mark, but every prospect can get injured. Bottom line: even though Bryce Young has elite traits, there are also a lot of questions about how he plays and adapts at the next level.

CJ Stroud might not have as many truly elite traits, but I can't think of a single question mark. He is above average at every aspect of the quarterback position while being a truly elite passer of the football. For a franchise that has had the inconsistencies we have had and the recent stretch of awfulness we've gone through, I think there is a genuine risk to our long-term future if we draft a bust. I know it is the NFL, but I don't see a way CJ Stroud busts (barring a freak incident). Think he is the best fit for our franchise and would bring a level of consistency we've never had.

[MHS831]

2 hours ago, The Huddler said:

i just made a true statement.  thats all. if young stays healthy and becomes an MVP we will feel stupid. 

 

 

When you are small and playing in the biggest, most prestigious program in modern college football, you are aware of it.  Here is why I don't think Young will be as injury prone as we all think.

Bryce processes very quickly--the average QB in the NFL gets rid of the ball in 2.4-2.7 seconds.  In college, Young's throws were 0.2 second quicker than average.  Furthermore, 87% of his passes were catchable. (Stroud, known for his accuracy, boasts that 85% of his passes were catchable.)

He rates a 7/7 in the areas of "poise" and "clutch" (Stroud was a 6/7 in both categories) and, according to Greg Cosell, "Young is a high-level prospect with a PhD in the nuances, details and subtleties of the position, starting with his pre-snap process and an outstanding feel for the game, intuitively understanding where everyone is on the field and often moving to find space to deliver the ball and make spectacular second reaction plays."

He is tough and smart in the pocket.

While his size is a legitimate concern, Young's intelligence, fast release, movement in the pocket, and the NFL rules that protect QBs might make his size concerns minimal.  Furthermore, he runs a 4.52 40, so he has a degree of escapability.  Cam Newton seemed like a tank with a cannon for an arm running down the field, but his size and hesitation in the pocket proved to be his downfall---he was injured based on the wear and tear---so a big QB getting hit a lot might be more dangerous than a small QB getting hit once in a while.

I am glad this decision is not mine.

Young: https://www.the33rdteam.com/nfl-draft/2023/players/bryce-young-49632/

Stroud: https://www.the33rdteam.com/nfl-draft/2023/players/c-j-stroud-49609/overview/

Based on these comparisons, Young is slightly better than Stroud in the areas they chose to measure.  Is it enough?  therin lies the dilemma.

Edited April 5, 2023 by MHS831

[Mr. Scot]

9 minutes ago, backINblack28 said:

Fair point--do you have the articles handy that refer to that how that timeline shook out?

 

[Mr. Scot]

11 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

When you are small and playing in the biggest, most prestigious program in modern college football, you are aware of it.  Here is why I don't think Young will be as injury prone as we all think.

Bryce processes very quickly--the average QB in the NFL gets rid of the ball in 2.4-2.7 seconds.  In college, Young's throws were 0.2 second quicker than average.  Furthermore, 87% of his passes were catchable. (Stroud, known for his accuracy, boasts that 85% of his passes were catchable.)

He rates a 7/7 in the areas of "poise" and "clutch" (Stroud was a 6/7 in both categories) and, according to Greg Cosell, "Young is a high-level prospect with a PhD in the nuances, details and subtleties of the position, starting with his pre-snap process and an outstanding feel for the game, intuitively understanding where everyone is on the field and often moving to find space to deliver the ball and make spectacular second reaction plays."

He is tough and smart in the pocket.

While his size is a legitimate concern, Young's intelligence, fast release, movement in the pocket, and the NFL rules that protect QBs might make his size concerns minimal.  Furthermore, he runs a 4.52 40, so he has a degree of escapability.  Cam Newton seemed like a tank with a cannon for an arm running down the field, but his size and hesitation in the pocket proved to be his downfall---he was injured based on the wear and tear---so a big QB getting hit a lot might be more dangerous than a small QB getting hit once in a while.

I am glad this decision is not mine.

Young: https://www.the33rdteam.com/nfl-draft/2023/players/bryce-young-49632/

Stroud: https://www.the33rdteam.com/nfl-draft/2023/players/c-j-stroud-49609/overview/

Based on these comparisons, Young is slightly better than Stroud in the areas they chose to measure.  Is it enough?  therin lies the dilemma.

This is where somebody cites the old statement about the best ability being  availability.

(in this case it's me, I'm the one who said it)

I think that statement is essentially the nexus of everyone's concerns.

[Eric4280]

1 hour ago, Mr. Scot said:

Just gonna throw this in here...

 

Ooof. Would’ve made the 9 pick VERY interesting.

[Ivory Panther]

12 minutes ago, backINblack28 said:

Fair point--do you have the articles handy that refer to that how that timeline shook out?

It was in the athletic from April 3rd I believe. Below is an excerpt: 

Poles took the information with him to the scouting combine in Indianapolis. The Panthers were the first team to reach out.

“They were the first ones to kind of kick it off,” he said, “which tells you a lot.”

Poles worked out of the Hyatt in downtown Indianapolis, away from the bustle of the JW Marriott complex and where other Bears staff members stayed. He said he “slow-played” things at first, then heard from Fitterer, whom he knew well from their days on the road as scouts.

The two GMs met in Poles’ suite as the combine got underway on Monday, Feb. 27. Fitterer said the initial meeting lasted about 20 minutes. He realized fairly quickly he wouldn’t be able to make the jump from 9 to 1 with picks alone.

[backINblack28]

4 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

 

I feel like this timeline doesn't detract from the point I made about us making a lot of these decisions after the combine.  This article talks about how Fitterer pulled an offer before the combine and then after, he decided to not only put it back on the table but add a superstar WR to it.  That he pulled it before the combine and was okay with adding to it and going thru with it after to me isn't nothing esp that it's juxtaposed with Bryce Young not throwing there.  Doesn't mean we're going to do something or not but it lines up with what Vegas and the consensus of mock drafts think.

[run-run-pass-punt]

Nobody is the pick...until April 27 when the card is handed in. Until then...heads talk.