Cynthia Frelund with an interesting analytics look at CJ Stroud and Bryce Young

[MHS831]

53 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

If you think that about Freuland then you probably should do some research on her.  Her background is pretty nuts and she was at the forefront of nfl and analytics. 

 

She is not one to skew or make up her data for a "hot take".

Have you researched her, or are you basing your opinion on her hype/promotional information?  I am basing my opinion on inconsistencies in her statements.  She rarely provides the statistical makeup of her argument--but she has a background in research.  So do I--so you should listen to me.

[mrcompletely11]

4 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Have you researched her, or are you basing your opinion on her hype/promotional information?  I am basing my opinion on inconsistencies in her statements.  She rarely provides the statistical makeup of her argument--but she has a background in research.  So do I--so you should listen to me.

You think she is lying about her research?

[MHS831]

1 minute ago, mrcompletely11 said:

You think she is lying about her research?

No--she is not--she uses concrete data to support her assumptions.  She is into predictive analytics, analyzing patterns to predict outcomes--if you can share a statement of how accurate her predictions have been, then do so.  Basically, she is a fortune teller who uses data to guess.  I have yet to see a chart or data to determine her accuracy--but that does not mean it does not exist.  My statement was to say that I am not sold on her--but I have not delved deep into researching her predictions and the alignment with outcomes.  It is based in probability--and we all make decisions every day using the same strategies--I just have not seen her reliability examined--so until I do, I am not convinced--which does not mean there is not something to her work--it is simply not presented in a manner that research should be presented to establish validity--if they did that, they would lose their audience (me included--its boring!).  That is the only reason I am skeptical.  A palm reader may guess my dog's name, but until I see her methods of inquiry, I am skeptical.  Cynthia is fun, and her rationale is very interesting, but there is some cherry picking going on, based on what I can tell.

[Lame Duck]

Young’s Alabama film rates him the best college QB in this class, per computer vision. There is some extra volatility in projecting him to the next level, though. When his feet are set and he’s on platform, he ranks in the top 15 percent of my 10-season sample -- and he can get his feet set under duress. However, he had one of the longest times to throw while not under pressure last season (3.02 seconds, per PFF, ranking T-153rd). When you look into why, you’ll see he dropped back farther on average than the rest of the top passers in this class. Looking at QB comps from past drafts, passers who consistently had deep dropbacks have not fared well at the pro level unless their O-line -- specifically the tackles -- are able to hold off pressure well and recover when a rusher has a great second (or third) effort. Fortunately for Young, landing in Houston means he'll have the recently extended Laremy Tunsil protecting him for the foreseeable future.

[Lame Duck]

So compute models say Young style of play does not transition well in NFL

[Wundrbread33]

3 hours ago, mrcompletely11 said:

Damn

 

“His accuracy downfield is really special. He’s bigger than you think and faster and harder to sack than people realize. I thought he’s better than Trevor Lawrence. He’s such a pure passer and can make all the throws. He does really unique stuff. Watch some of the stuff he did against Michigan. There are two plays in that game, one on a deep go-ball and another on a corner route, where the DB undercuts it. It’s to the wide side of the field, and he just drops it in over the outside shoulder. Then, I’m watching him against Georgia, against those guys, and he was dominant in that game. We did our best to disrupt the timing, and he still got us. We played more aggressively at the line of scrimmage and he made a bunch of big plays. On third-and-11s, in real rough spots, he was able to improvise when it wasn’t there. If we didn’t match a pattern or cover a guy just right, he took advantage every time.”

I’m glad he mentioned the Michigan game. That game, loss or not, really sold me on ways he can be special. He dropped some absolute dimes while evading pressure, fading away. 

[MHS831]

10 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

You think she is lying about her research?

By the way, she did bring up some interesting points--and I used them in my original response.  I have tried to be objective--on the fence--resisting picking the next QB as long as I could--arguing for both sides, etc. 

After reading this, I am convinced it should be--will be--Stroud.

That bit about drop back makes sense--a bigger drop back and 3 seconds to throw---what a huge advantage for a short/small QB--one that he will not have in the NFL.  As I stated, most passes are between 2.4 and 2.7 seconds, and a deeper drop back gives an NFL DB a split second more time to recover.  That is a concern--and it could be nothing, but she brings up something that directly addresses how Young is adjusting to overcome his limitations--very valid points.

[mrcompletely11]

2 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

By the way, she did bring up some interesting points--and I used them in my original response.  I have tried to be objective--on the fence--resisting picking the next QB as long as I could--arguing for both sides, etc. 

After reading this, I am convinced it should be--will be--Stroud.

That bit about drop back makes sense--a bigger drop back and 3 seconds to throw---what a huge advantage for a short/small QB--one that he will not have in the NFL.  As I stated, most passes are between 2.4 and 2.7 seconds, and a deeper drop back gives an NFL DB a split second more time to recover.  That is a concern--and it could be nothing, but she brings up something that directly addresses how Young is adjusting to overcome his limitations--very valid points.

so what was your original beef then?  You said she could be bsing

[mav1234]

The comment on Young's drop backs mirrors what I've seen. But I'd be curious how last year compares to this for him.  His receivers did him little favors, though when they were open early it would appear he couldn't see it (or wasn't looking their way)

[stratocatter]

I haven't watched game tape of Young, and won't after seeing his pro day.

He uses everything he can to get the ball launched. There is some little move that he does, that moves him forward a little where he then starts his throwing motion. 

He needs the depth and time to do a deep throw, and you can't judge that from watching college and say it will be fine (okay, you can), you need to extrapolate that to NFL speed, size, and smarts. The coaching staffs are wilier than college. 

I don't think he will be able to step up and what I envision or foresee is him abandoning the pocket and taking off, will be his main game. 

Then I watch a guy flick his wrist to throw, the ball comes out fast and flying right, and goes where he wants it. And, the guy takes snaps under the center. Pro. Football.

 

Edited March 31, 2023 by stratocatter

[thefuzz]

3 minutes ago, stratocatter said:

I haven't watched game tape of Young, and won't after seeing his pro day.

He uses everything he can to get the ball launched. There is some little move that he does, that moves him forward a little where he then starts his throwing motion. 

He needs the depth and time to do a deep throw, and you can't judge that from watching college and say it will be fine (okay, you can), you need to extrapolate that to NFL speed, size, and smarts. The coaching staffs are wilier than college. 

I don't think he will be able to step up and what I envision or foresee is him abandoning the pocket and taking off, will be his main game. 

Then I watch a guy flick his wrist to throw, the ball comes out fast and flying right, and goes where he wants it. And, the guy takes snaps under the center. Pro. 

 

Precisely what I saw.  I do not see above average arm strength from Young.  Not that CJ has a Cutler or Stafford arm, but it's more than enough.

Young scares me as a prospect.

[RockyTopVol]

I've been adamant about Young being my guy, but I think I might be close to changing my mind. 

[stratocatter]

51 minutes ago, thefuzz said:

Precisely what I saw.  I do not see above average arm strength from Young.  Not that CJ has a Cutler or Stafford arm, but it's more than enough.

Young scares me as a prospect.

Doing the trade scared me. Did not want. I think somebody falls and am more comfortable gambling a single 1st round draft pick on that guy and still having DJ. plus all those other players the picks are going to get for Chicago.

Now that it is done, this is the reality. I am looking harder into the 'top two' options. I would be mad and lose a lot of faith in Reich if they did all that for Young. 

 

[MHS831]

3 hours ago, mrcompletely11 said:

so what was your original beef then?  You said she could be bsing

She could be BSing.  Network television does not validate research--you are assuming that her research is valid. That is called, "bias." as long as there is bias, and all research has some margin for error, you should not assume its legitimacy.  So just because she mentions some statistic on which to base her projection, she does not discuss other variables, etc. It is good, fun TV, and without fantasy football, she would not exist.  Amusement purposes only, until she has been peer reviewed and validated.  I am explaining my opinion, and why I am unwilling to accept all she reports at face value.  Without my background in research, I would go along with it--and there are times I want to believe it.  But the secret to research is identifying the central problem and acknowledging variables that may impact the treatment---if she is providing statistics related to the symptoms of that problem, then her outcome will be skewed. You have that option to believe it, and Freland may be undertaking thorough, proper research, but I have no way of knowing that.  She is just a hot babe with data--and that makes for good TV.

Edited March 31, 2023 by MHS831