Cynthia Frelund with an interesting analytics look at CJ Stroud and Bryce Young

[rebelrouser]

I'm worried Stroud ends up being Jared Goff and Young ends up being Tua. If I had to make a choice, i would love to leave it up to a brain trust of Frank Reich and company. Don't care that Young didn't throw at the combine or weigh in at his pro day. He was just following his agent's advice and doing what is best for him.  You think AR is running at the combine if he knows he actually is a 4.7 guy? 

[frankw]

2 minutes ago, rebelrouser said:

I'm worried Stroud ends up being Jared Goff and Young ends up being Tua.

You might want to check in on Tua before going with that comp in a positive light.

[frankw]

Goff hasn't lived up to his draft slot but if not for a crucial touchdown pass drop to Brandin Cooks he could be known as a Super Bowl champion when he was a Ram.

Just shows how far even a flawed QB can go with the right coaching.

[rebelrouser]

37 minutes ago, frankw said:

You might want to check in on Tua before going with that comp in a positive light.

I meant that as a negative. As in he will be injured several times every year. 

[Eric4280]

2 hours ago, frankw said:

I don't agree with the Dak Prescott Kirk Cousins comp and definitely not Carr. We don't know what Stroud's floor or ceiling is. Same with Young. They both have proven nothing at the NFL level. So let me break for this down for you and the rest of your honestly Branch Davidianesque pro Bryce Young brethren here. Before we traded up to #1 I had no dog in the fight between BY or CJS. Not an OSU fan not an Alabama fan. But once we made the trade and gave up what we did I wanted us to take either the best pure passer and football mind or the guy with physical intangibles through the roof. I've been open to options. But when you start dissecting things and looking at the prospects the one thing you notice is instead of Bryce Young saying you know what fug this I am who I am accept me draft me or don't he shrunk in the moment and stood around in a hoodie while the rest of the prospects went through the combine. Then he pulled another lame move in skipping the weigh in at his own pro day. He is legitimately shady about his one huge concern and for what we gave up that's a huge gamble for me. It outweighs any concerns I have with Stroud and even someone like Anthony Richardson.

If you got a problem with that. Well...

I’m also not an OSU or Bama fan. I actually watch the sport and take every factor into evaluation. Youngs small? Absolutely. He’s always been small. He’s always taken hits in the SEC. Hasn’t “broken down” yet. Can it happen? Absolutely. Can it happen with Stroud? Absolutely. I actually like and trust Young running with the ball and with pocket navigation IMMENSELY more than I do Stroud. Stroud is an in script, accurate pocket passer. And I didn’t say he’ll be the same exact player as Carr , Cousins, or Dak- do I feel very strongly that he’ll end up in that tier. Pretty high floor, ceiling that I just don’t see with an “it factor” that makes someone else. He looks uncomfortable in a lot of the things he’s bad at. And since once again all we care about is Bryce size and for some dumb reason…. COMBINE NUMBERS… I’ll pound the drum of- how many snaps had Stroud taken without - Marvin Harrison Jr, Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, JSN, or Emeka Egbuka? How many Heismans has he won? How many of his tackles from this past season are going rounds one and or two? Obviously it’s easy to look smooth and effortless when you’re handed what he’s been handed in the big10.

 

So yeah I will be a “Bryce Young defender” when damn near every thread is 9/1 quips thrown at Young but Stroud is holier than thou.

[Eric4280]

True or false:

Young has taken primarily shotgun snaps and we assume the worst and that’s all he can do. Not because of design.

 

Stroud is NOT mobile/ doesn’t run and it’s “oh well they didn’t ask him to run, he can probably do it though” correct?

[ForJimmy]

2 minutes ago, Eric4280 said:

True or false:

Young has taken primarily shotgun snaps and we assume the worst and that’s all he can do. Not because of design.

 

Stroud is NOT mobile/ doesn’t run and it’s “oh well they didn’t ask him to run, he can probably do it though” correct?

People are assuming Young needs to be in shotgun because of his height.  He has to get the ball over OL much taller than him, it’s just physics nothing personal nor does it mean he can’t be successful. If he is a Panther and crushing it out of shotgun no one will give a poo what the formation it. 
Stroud showed he is mobile enough against that SEC defense he played most recently. Both are solid prospects and both can be great at the next level. 

[frankw]

10 minutes ago, Eric4280 said:

I’m also not an OSU or Bama fan. I actually watch the sport and take every factor into evaluation. Youngs small? Absolutely. He’s always been small. He’s always taken hits in the SEC. Hasn’t “broken down” yet. Can it happen? Absolutely. Can it happen with Stroud? Absolutely. I actually like and trust Young running with the ball and with pocket navigation IMMENSELY more than I do Stroud. Stroud is an in script, accurate pocket passer. And I didn’t say he’ll be the same exact player as Carr , Cousins, or Dak- do I feel very strongly that he’ll end up in that tier. Pretty high floor, ceiling that I just don’t see with an “it factor” that makes someone else. He looks uncomfortable in a lot of the things he’s bad at. And since once again all we care about is Bryce size and for some dumb reason…. COMBINE NUMBERS… I’ll pound the drum of- how many snaps had Stroud taken without - Marvin Harrison Jr, Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, JSN, or Emeka Egbuka? How many Heismans has he won? How many of his tackles from this past season are going rounds one and or two? Obviously it’s easy to look smooth and effortless when you’re handed what he’s been handed in the big10.

 

So yeah I will be a “Bryce Young defender” when damn near every thread is 9/1 quips thrown at Young but Stroud is holier than thou.

The whole he has great receivers thing cuts both ways. How good do those wideouts look without his accuracy? Almost anyone who's anyone knows Harrison JR is an absolute stud. But Panthers fans especially should know that really only matters if you have an accurate passer who can get him the ball. We just traded away one and all we gave him was a shell of himself Cam Newton Kyle Allen Sam Darnold PJ Walker and Baker Mayfield then back to Darnold.

If this and how he will react to NFL pressure is the biggest knock you can think of on Stroud then I think he has a plenty good chance of being a quality starting QB. Elite and all that noise is crazy talk way too early and I'll say that for any of the prospects under consideration.

You are more than willing to overlook Young's glaring concerns but trash Stroud. Hey at least he AR and the mayonnaise in his coffee weirdo showed up to put in work at the combine. You do you man

[Eric4280]

1 minute ago, frankw said:

The whole he has great receivers thing cuts both ways. How good do those wideouts look without his accuracy? Almost anyone who's anyone knows Harrison JR is an absolute stud. But Panthers fans especially should know that really only matters if you have an accurate passer who can get him the ball. We just traded away one and all we gave him was a shell of himself Cam Newton Kyle Allen Sam Darnold PJ Walker and Baker Mayfield then back to Darnold.

If this and how he will react to NFL pressure is the biggest knock you can think of on Stroud then I think he has a plenty good chance of being a quality starting QB. Elite and all that noise is crazy talk way too early and I'll say that for any of the prospects under consideration.

You are more than willing to overlook Young's glaring concerns but trash Stroud. Hey at least he AR and the mayonnaise in his coffee weirdo showed up to put in work at the combine. You do you man

First paragraph- see “Garrett Wilson with Zach Wilson and Mike White”

See-“ Chris Olave with Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton.”

Yeah I’m willing to overlook the knitpicking things BECAUSE ALREADY DONE IT! I get it for the 489391th time, he’s small, he’s got flaws in that regard. He’s also won a heisman at this size. He’s also got probably the best football mind in the last 10 years. He’s been hit and don’t use that lazy garbage “oh it’s not nfl size players” SEC produces more nfl players than any other conference obviously. He’s taken hits. He’s gotten up. I won’t pretend he’s immune to injury but I’m not gonna pretend the things he does do, isn’t special. Pocket awareness, ability to move a defense with his eyes, hits all kinds of arm angles on throws. And once again I am NOT a Bama fan, just a watcher of college ball. 
 

I genuinely have zero care in ANYONES pro day or combine. What so he could weigh in light and ya bash him and if he weighs in heavy it’s “water weight” or “there goes his mobility” garbage. He has nothing to gain from the underwear Olympics. He’s done it on the field. Where the games played. Not in undies.

[Martin]

6 minutes ago, Eric4280 said:

First paragraph- see “Garrett Wilson with Zach Wilson and Mike White”

See-“ Chris Olave with Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton.”

Yeah I’m willing to overlook the knitpicking things BECAUSE ALREADY DONE IT! I get it for the 489391th time, he’s small, he’s got flaws in that regard. He’s also won a heisman at this size. He’s also got probably the best football mind in the last 10 years. He’s been hit and don’t use that lazy garbage “oh it’s not nfl size players” SEC produces more nfl players than any other conference obviously. He’s taken hits. He’s gotten up. I won’t pretend he’s immune to injury but I’m not gonna pretend the things he does do, isn’t special. Pocket awareness, ability to move a defense with his eyes, hits all kinds of arm angles on throws. And once again I am NOT a Bama fan, just a watcher of college ball. 
 

I genuinely have zero care in ANYONES pro day or combine. What so he could weigh in light and ya bash him and if he weighs in heavy it’s “water weight” or “there goes his mobility” garbage. He has nothing to gain from the underwear Olympics. He’s done it on the field. Where the games played. Not in undies.

It basically comes down to one thing with Young. Awesome college player, but can he do in the NFL what he did in college? I don’t think so, hence he makes me nervous. You and many others think he can, so then it makes sense you prefer him.

The one thing I disagree with you on is the SEC is like the NFL kind of thing (I’m taking the liberty of rephrasing it here). The NFL is completely different where everyone is bigger, stronger and faster. The SEC is not an NFL comp.

[Eric4280]

Just now, Martin said:

It basically comes down to one thing with Young. Awesome college player, but can he do in the NFL what he did in college? I don’t think so, hence he makes me nervous. You and many others think he can, so then it makes sense you prefer him.

The one thing I disagree with you on is the SEC is like the NFL kind of thing (I’m taking the liberty of rephrasing it here). The NFL is completely different where everyone is bigger, stronger and faster. The SEC is not an NFL comp.

I’m gonna assume that he’ll have the same training regiment that will get him up to nfl standards for physicality even if he never does truly bulk up. It’s not like he’s going from flag football to the gulag. Obviously the nfl is bigger and faster. As I assume nfl coaches and trainers expect him to be as well.

[frankw]

Why does this guy keep flashing Heisman like that means anything?

Before and since Cam Newton wasn't winning the Heisman like the KOD anyway?

Johnny Football and Baker Mayfield both have them.

[backINblack28]

1 hour ago, Eric4280 said:

I’m also not an OSU or Bama fan. I actually watch the sport and take every factor into evaluation. Youngs small? Absolutely. He’s always been small. He’s always taken hits in the SEC. Hasn’t “broken down” yet. Can it happen? Absolutely. Can it happen with Stroud? Absolutely. I actually like and trust Young running with the ball and with pocket navigation IMMENSELY more than I do Stroud. Stroud is an in script, accurate pocket passer. And I didn’t say he’ll be the same exact player as Carr , Cousins, or Dak- do I feel very strongly that he’ll end up in that tier. Pretty high floor, ceiling that I just don’t see with an “it factor” that makes someone else. He looks uncomfortable in a lot of the things he’s bad at. And since once again all we care about is Bryce size and for some dumb reason…. COMBINE NUMBERS… I’ll pound the drum of- how many snaps had Stroud taken without - Marvin Harrison Jr, Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, JSN, or Emeka Egbuka? How many Heismans has he won? How many of his tackles from this past season are going rounds one and or two? Obviously it’s easy to look smooth and effortless when you’re handed what he’s been handed in the big10.

 

So yeah I will be a “Bryce Young defender” when damn near every thread is 9/1 quips thrown at Young but Stroud is holier than thou.

As another person who isn't a bama/osu fan (i hate them both), this is my take.

1. I don't know why people are searching for or using pro player comparisons for either Stroud or Young.  They are BOTH very unique players that we really haven't seen before when you encompass all the details of their respective games. If you take that away from analyzing them I think it helps a lot more envision what their futures look like.  It's equally imperative when thinking about injury, which is just a complete wildcard (albeit fair to scrutinize more with Young's size)

2. CJ's WRs. This was my main issue with him most of the season evaluating him.  However.  The Iowa and Michigan tapes were where I started to see that while he has WR that 1 catch the balls he throws them and 2 get open and turn catches into TD/more dangerous YAC plays---he also throws beautiful back shoulder sideline BOMBS to them. He to me is a FAR superior and accurate passer than what I saw from Dak and Cousins (didn't watch Carr much at Fresno).  And quite simply, what CJ did to an amazing UGA defense answered my questions about his WR being perceived as a 1-2 punch to his success (Bryce deserves credit for doing the same against UGA).  Anyone objectively looking at this, we should all be able to admit that CJ beat UGA--take a missed kick out of it.  If he wins that game, the legacy and the questions change.  They changed for me that day regardless because idc about what the kicker did.

I simply have not seen pocket presence coupled with lightning quick AND accurate balls getting to wherever they need to get on a field in college. For me, Young has some of this at least with the pocket presence.  I think sometimes he is able to work longer and harder to have more time for his admittedly less talented WR to get open.  He won't have as much time or space to work with in the NFL.  Do I think that will hurt him? Maybe not.  What I know is that I personally feel confident that CJ's game and strengths will translate directly and that Young's could sputter and or the injury risk could be a pretty immediate 'well whoops' thing objectively.  Saying that CJ could get Theismanned day 1 doesn't really change that Young's durability will ALWAYS be a concern for everyone rooting for him as we await a former MVP QB trying to literally just get a job at this point.

3. CJ runs.  He's not as quick as BY in that respect, but he has long option runs and touchdowns all over his highlight tape.  The main thing when he runs is that when he is behind the line of scrimmage he is ALWAYS still looking downfield.  Being a Cam lover/fan, it's easy for me to want an ultimate dual threat guy.  But if we're going to make any comparison whatsoever here, it should be that CJ is to pocket accuracy what Cam was to rushing and CJ is to rushing what Cam was to pocket accuracy.  And although I would love to watch Bryce run around and create and succeed, I'm okay with rooting for that sort of opposite strength of Cam too because we have not had anything near a guy like CJ either.

 

For me, anyone who essentially downplays either QBs accuracy or rushing (IMO leadership belongs here too. Both guys are lauded by coaches, teammates and competitors alike) is telling on themselves IMO, because their rushing stats are eerily similar, as are their accuracy numbers.  Personally, if I am to the point where I'm choosing a separator, I am (I'm 5'6 and I played hockey and Steve Smith was one of my favorite Panthers ever for his napoleon chip on his shoulder) the number one advocate that it's the size of the fight in the dog...BUT, CJ objectively fits our team structure, our coach's structure for a QB, and any question you ask about accuracy or durability or mobility with CJ you would have to ask of every QB in the league.  

If nothing else, those in comparison to the fact that I think the timing of our "Panthers are the most aggressive team at the combine i've ever seen" & trade up happening RIGHT as CJ Stroud is doing stuff in the combine and Bryce isn't even throwing--it feels like we saw what we wanted from CJ at the combine and everything else has been 'let's keep our eyes and options open.'  I think that Fitt and Reich saying they don't know who each other's choice is could be true in their communication to each other but I think clearly when we traded up and when we showed our aggression we tipped our hand there at the reason. 

 

I say all that to say that I plan on buying a new design Panthers jersey with either 7 or 9 on it (sorry Shaq dude you need to take that 54 back) and if it's Young I will defend my fellow short king to the death and I will criticize every interception CJ throws in Houston.  If it's CJ I'll put Bryce in an oompa loompa meme with a texans jersey and hate him forever. Because bottom line is, while I hate and am exhausted by the discourse here (especially an entire cavalry of people ignoring that it's Bryce or CJ), I LOVE that we're in the situation where we completely control our own destiny (and that the teams like NO, TB, ATL didn't do it/hate that we did and are getting our future guy and HATE how good our offseason was) and we had the gall to move up and put ourselves there and that we've surrounded our guy with a much fuller roster than I can ever remember a rookie QB ever walking into as well as a much more experienced staff than I can ever remember a rookie QB ever walking into (league wide for both but underscored and especially here in Carolina). 

I am over the moon at possibilities for the future and since Cam took the TJ Watt hit in 2018 I have not been so excited simultaneously about 1 the direction of the franchise and 2 QB play and watching/having fun watching it.  We might all be tired of going back and forth.  But as some other posts have said--we haven't been here before and may never be again.  Revel in the good parts of it.  And at the bottom line, to me, that main thing is that we are getting a great QB, athlete, and leader that opponents feared, coaches loved, and teammates rallied around.  And I cannot WAIT to hear their name called out of the tunnel(albeit mentioned after a college name that I hate) while Desmond Ridder, Derek Carr, and Baker Mayfield get their practice throws in on the opposite sideline.

 

Keep Pounding.

Edited April 4, 2023 by backINblack28

[Eric4280]

20 minutes ago, frankw said:

Why does this guy keep flashing Heisman like that means anything?

Before and since Cam Newton wasn't winning the Heisman like the KOD anyway?

Johnny Football and Baker Mayfield both have them.

Yeah Heisman winning means nothing but underwear measurements are the gold standard. Make sense, hypocrite.