Cynthia Frelund with an interesting analytics look at CJ Stroud and Bryce Young

[TheSpecialJuan]

- In my models, Stroud has the highest floor of any QB in Year 1. Why? He has the sturdiest base, per computer vision. This means that his ability to throw, even when his platform isn’t ideal (like when he’s under pressure), forecasts to result in the fewest turnover-worthy plays. If Carolina is able to acquire another above-average or better WR (DeAndre Hopkins, maybe??) to pair with Stroud, Frank Reich would have an offense with a top-15 ceiling

- Young’s Alabama film rates him the best college QB in this class, per computer vision. There is some extra volatility in projecting him to the next level, though. When his feet are set and he’s on platform, he ranks in the top 15 percent of my 10-season sample -and he can get his feet set under duress. However, he had one of the longest times to throw while not under pressure last season (3.02 seconds, per PFF, ranking T-153rd). When you look into why, you’ll see he dropped back farther on average than the rest of the top passers in this class. Looking at QB comps from past drafts, passers who consistently had deep dropbacks have not fared well at the pro level unless their O-line -- specifically the tackles -- are able to hold off pressure well and recover when a rusher has a great second (or third) effort.

https://www.nfl.com/news/cynthia-frelund-2023-nfl-mock-draft-2-0-packers-select-wr-jaxon-smith-njigba-fal

[Ivan The Awesome]

Those analytics are fascinating. I'm still a Stroud guy but if they get Young I won't be mad. 

[rayzor]

Stroud is the safest bet of this class because of his style of play and his approach to the game.

Like I've said many times, I'd be thrilled as can be to have either him or Young and maybe even AR, because I think all 3 could be special if put in the correct situation (and I think ours is the best one any of them could hope for). 

But AR and Young are more of a gamble than Stroud. 

[WarHeel]

Yeah….he ain’t getting 3.0+ seconds every play in the NFL.

[mrcompletely11]

5 hours ago, TheSpecialJuan said:

- In my models, Stroud has the highest floor of any QB in Year 1. Why? He has the sturdiest base, per computer vision. This means that his ability to throw, even when his platform isn’t ideal (like when he’s under pressure), forecasts to result in the fewest turnover-worthy plays. If Carolina is able to acquire another above-average or better WR (DeAndre Hopkins, maybe??) to pair with Stroud, Frank Reich would have an offense with a top-15 ceiling

- Young’s Alabama film rates him the best college QB in this class, per computer vision. There is some extra volatility in projecting him to the next level, though. When his feet are set and he’s on platform, he ranks in the top 15 percent of my 10-season sample -and he can get his feet set under duress. However, he had one of the longest times to throw while not under pressure last season (3.02 seconds, per PFF, ranking T-153rd). When you look into why, you’ll see he dropped back farther on average than the rest of the top passers in this class. Looking at QB comps from past drafts, passers who consistently had deep dropbacks have not fared well at the pro level unless their O-line -- specifically the tackles -- are able to hold off pressure well and recover when a rusher has a great second (or third) effort.

https://www.nfl.com/news/cynthia-frelund-2023-nfl-mock-draft-2-0-packers-select-wr-jaxon-smith-njigba-fal

Damn good stuff.   

[Martin]

That was really interesting. Didn’t realize Young drops that far back, that’s a tough one for any OT. Now the question is if he drops that far back to make it easier to see over the line?

[Jackie Lee]

Some interesting in depth comments from opposing coaches in this new mock draft as well 1.CJ 2.Bryce

  

 We heard when Bill O’Brien got there, Bryce ended up teaching him the early stages of their offense. My only concern is that he’s little. At some point one of these gigantic interior guys is gonna land on him and you’ll be scared that he’s not gonna get up. His size scares me because against us, he really didn’t escape. We ran him down three or four times. We’ve got some good athletes, but those are the athletes that you’re trying to run away from at that level.”

“If he’s got time, he’s gonna kill you. His arm is good in person but Hendon Hooker has a stronger arm. He’s at his best extending plays in the pocket, and he throws dimes. He also has a very good feel on touch and when to rifle it in there. We changed significantly (scheme-wise) before we played him. We ran Fire Zone and Cover 0 and really heated him up, and I didn’t think he saw it that well when there’re athletic 6-5 dudes running down your throat. I’m not sold on him. I’d take C.J. before him.”

[mrcompletely11]

I think its coming into focus 4 weeks out who we are taking.  I suspect in a couple weeks it will not be a secret. 

[mrcompletely11]

Damn

 

“His accuracy downfield is really special. He’s bigger than you think and faster and harder to sack than people realize. I thought he’s better than Trevor Lawrence. He’s such a pure passer and can make all the throws. He does really unique stuff. Watch some of the stuff he did against Michigan. There are two plays in that game, one on a deep go-ball and another on a corner route, where the DB undercuts it. It’s to the wide side of the field, and he just drops it in over the outside shoulder. Then, I’m watching him against Georgia, against those guys, and he was dominant in that game. We did our best to disrupt the timing, and he still got us. We played more aggressively at the line of scrimmage and he made a bunch of big plays. On third-and-11s, in real rough spots, he was able to improvise when it wasn’t there. If we didn’t match a pattern or cover a guy just right, he took advantage every time.”

[Martin]

9 minutes ago, Jackie Lee said:

Some interesting in depth comments from opposing coaches in this new mock draft as well 1.CJ 2.Bryce

  

 We heard when Bill O’Brien got there, Bryce ended up teaching him the early stages of their offense. My only concern is that he’s little. At some point one of these gigantic interior guys is gonna land on him and you’ll be scared that he’s not gonna get up. His size scares me because against us, he really didn’t escape. We ran him down three or four times. We’ve got some good athletes, but those are the athletes that you’re trying to run away from at that level.”

“If he’s got time, he’s gonna kill you. His arm is good in person but Hendon Hooker has a stronger arm. He’s at his best extending plays in the pocket, and he throws dimes. He also has a very good feel on touch and when to rifle it in there. We changed significantly (scheme-wise) before we played him. We ran Fire Zone and Cover 0 and really heated him up, and I didn’t think he saw it that well when there’re athletic 6-5 dudes running down your throat. I’m not sold on him. I’d take C.J. before him.”

Some really great breakdowns and details on there. Thanks for sharing. The Athletic is such a good read, well worth paying for.

[mrcompletely11]

3 minutes ago, Martin said:

Some really great breakdowns and details on there. Thanks for sharing. The Athletic is such a good read, well worth paying for.

It’s on special for $1.   

[frankw]

Wow some very good info in this thread. Thank you all.

I concur with Rayzor. As we get further into this process and closer to the draft CJ looks to be atop the list with Young and AR next as the talented but riskier options.

Edited March 31, 2023 by frankw

[hepcat]

28 minutes ago, Martin said:

That was really interesting. Didn’t realize Young drops that far back, that’s a tough one for any OT. Now the question is if he drops that far back to make it easier to see over the line?

If he needs to drop back so far to see over the line….in the NFL that’s a lot harder to do. 

I look at Young’s game against Texas as a good example of what he could look like in the pros. Young was under pressure the entire game and largely ineffective until the very last drive and finally evaded a sack to make a big play. I’m concerned if he can’t withstand an average college defense’s pressure, what will he do against NFL caliber D-Lineman? At his size he will need to get the ball out fast and dropping by 7 steps and surveying the field isn’t always an option when you’re playing a team with good pass rushers.

[NCBlu]

Seems like Young is in shotgun every play.

Mite just be the system but with being shorter I'm sure it helps.

Edited March 31, 2023 by NCBlu
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