Don't throw dice on a first round pick

[Brooklyn 3.0]

1 hour ago, philw5289 said:

Richardson has the highest ceiling I’d be fine with that pick 

People keep saying this, but I've yet to see one person actually explain it. Perhaps you who do say it, are just echoing what Twitter says? Look, can he run fast? Yes. Can he jump high? Yes. Can he jump far? Yes. Can he throw far? Yes. Does that make him an elite QB? No.

Does have accuracy issues? Yes. Can you blame that on ... things? People loooove to blame it on things. Can he be coached up? We don't know.

So ... uh ... where is this ceiling everyone keeps drooling over? You're saying that IF he can throw it the way an elite NFL QB throws it and you add in his arm, legs, etc. well then that makes him a future GOAT. Is that it? Is it all that simple?

If you're doing guesswork in relation to his "ceiling" ... well damn, Young could beef up! He could get JACKED like Hurts. Will that make his ceiling higher than AR's? Stroud could get a personality, be coached up to run more ... will that make his ceiling higher?

AR shows that he is a machine playing with little boys in college. A TE playing QB, or an NBA SF playing QB. But nothing shows he'll turn into Brady, Brees, Manning, Mahomes, etc. when he throws into NFL coverage. This "has the highest ceiling" talk is all speculative. It's a wish, man. Stop dropping the mic like it's fact.

[Riverboat Ron]

Just draft the highest overall rating and superstar development trait.

[The Huddler]

2 hours ago, TheCasillas said:

Should we tag Tepper, Fitterer and Reich to make sure they read this post?

Hey, I am actually Scott Fitterer

 

we're taking AR

[Basbear]

 

rhule is a dead ringer for ashy larry......

[cookinbrak]

3 hours ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

Not so sure about that. The Hornets are as close to a certainty to screw up a 1st round pick as I have ever seen. 

JR Reid...

[CPcavedweller]

3 hours ago, Jmac said:

This chance and the trade to make it happen may not come around again. They have had plenty of time to do research and figure out all options.

'Maybe and/or take a shot' doesn't work with this pick. Make the safest pick possible and leave all the development BS to a later pick for another team.

This is their one shot to become relevant again and stay relevant for seasons to come.......don't fug it up boys.

 

You're hoping to get an anomoly:

1. Richardson - You're banking on him doing what few others can and end up improving accuracy. Josh Allen is really one of the only guys to make such drastic improvement in this area

2. Young - You're hoping that height isn't a hinderence. You're hoping his brain can compensate for his lack of arm strength and size. You're hoping his athleticism can compensate for his lack of size. And You're hoping he can become an anomaly on very, very important aspects of the game.

3. Levis - You're hoping his awareness issues aren't something ingrained but we're rather a product of playing with young receivers, a poor line, and a mew OC in 2022. 

The two guys with the least number of risky attributes are Stroud and Levis, in my opinion. With Young and Richardson You're rolling the dice and hoping that one or three things can change or be negligible enough for them to be stars.

I'd love Richardson at 10, I'd love Young at 10. Levis and Stroud are the only two I'd take at 1.

[Steelo Senpai]

16 minutes ago, cookinbrak said:

JR Reid...

Lowkey one of my favorite players as a kid, absolute favorite to use in old NBA games.

[csx]

4 hours ago, Jmac said:

This chance and the trade to make it happen may not come around again. They have had plenty of time to do research and figure out all options.

'Maybe and/or take a shot' doesn't work with this pick. Make the safest pick possible and leave all the development BS to a later pick for another team.

This is their one shot to become relevant again and stay relevant for seasons to come.......don't fug it up boys.

 

This would mean not selecting a QB

[CPantherKing]

There have been 169 franchise QB opportunities in the past 15 seasons since the 2008 draft. 120 QBs have been awarded these opportunities, and 57 of them have been 1st round QBs.

50 of these QBs (88%) have gone to the playoffs (26 have been 1st round picks).

31 have won a playoff game. 19 have been to a conference championship. 12 have been to a SB. 5 have won the SB.

With the teams that drafted them, 10 1st rounders went to a championship game, 5 (50%) won their conference, and 2 (20%) won the SB. All other QBs who did this for their first team/drafted team, 5 went to a championship game, 4 (80%) won their conference championship, and 2 (40%) won the SB.

If you stick with a QB regardless of round, you will get to the playoffs. 1st round QBs will do well at winning playoff games and getting to a championship game. When it comes to winning conference championships and SB championships, good non-1st round QBs out perform their good 1st round QB counterparts at the highest level.

You are better off with a QB that does not come from the 1st round if the goal is a championship. This has held since the 1960s. Dynasty QBs with longevity are consistently non-1st rounders.

A team can move through 3 non-1st round QBs at the same rate teams move on from a 1st round QB who struggles to get to a conference championship game. Do you want 3 shots at a more successful championship/dynasty QB, or do you want 1 shot at a QB that will win more playoff games while seeing the same amount of championship success if not less?

Make what you want from the data, but this is what it tells me. You can hang on to that #1 pick and win playoff games, but you'd have a better shot at being a championship team with a non-1st rounder.

Good 1st rounders will take 6 to 7 years on average to win a championship. Good non-1st rounders will take 3 to 4 years to win a championship. Keep in mind that SB champion coaches have a 3 to 5 year window to win a SB.

[SmokinwithWilly]

23 minutes ago, CPantherKing said:

 

You are better off with a QB that does not come from the 1st round if the goal is a championship. This has held since the 1960s. Dynasty QBs with longevity are consistently non-1st rounders.

 

There's a little skewing to those numbers though. From 1960 to 1970 there were 20 rounds. From 70 it was 12 until 97' when it went to 7. So there were far more opportunities before 97 to hit outside of the 1st round.  

[DaveThePanther2008]

Most everyone here seems to think that J. Fields is going to be a great NFL QB.  And IMO he is trending up.  Richardson is leaps and bounds a better athlete than Fields.  If you believe Fields can do it than why not Richardson?

It's a huge gamble but having a dual threat QB with a head coach with a QB background and knows what he is doing is very exciting.  Plus a top 10 defense.  Things could get interesting in Carolina for the next decade.

All of these QBs have question marks whether it is size, ability to read defense or just doesn't have the experience.  So it boils down to who is going to lead this team for the next decade and a half. 

I'll be happy with whoever we choose but I would go with the one who has the highest ceiling not necessarily the one who can start immediately.

[CPantherKing]

3 hours ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

There's a little skewing to those numbers though. From 1960 to 1970 there were 20 rounds. From 70 it was 12 until 97' when it went to 7. So there were far more opportunities before 97 to hit outside of the 1st round.  

Skewing? That was raw data from the last 15 seasons.

I'll throw you the opportunities for the SB era if you want it. 

Also, players drafted does not equate to opportunities. There are far more players drafted than there are opportunities and there were fewer opportunities in the 60s and 70s. Do you know why?

Edited March 31, 2023 by CPantherKing

[ForJimmy]

3 hours ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

There's a little skewing to those numbers though. From 1960 to 1970 there were 20 rounds. From 70 it was 12 until 97' when it went to 7. So there were far more opportunities before 97 to hit outside of the 1st round.  

What have you done Willy?! 

[CPantherKing]

7 hours ago, Brooklyn 3.0 said:

People keep saying this, but I've yet to see one person actually explain it. Perhaps you who do say it, are just echoing what Twitter says? Look, can he run fast? Yes. Can he jump high? Yes. Can he jump far? Yes. Can he throw far? Yes. Does that make him an elite QB? No.

Does have accuracy issues? Yes. Can you blame that on ... things? People loooove to blame it on things. Can he be coached up? We don't know.

So ... uh ... where is this ceiling everyone keeps drooling over? You're saying that IF he can throw it the way an elite NFL QB throws it and you add in his arm, legs, etc. well then that makes him a future GOAT. Is that it? Is it all that simple?

If you're doing guesswork in relation to his "ceiling" ... well damn, Young could beef up! He could get JACKED like Hurts. Will that make his ceiling higher than AR's? Stroud could get a personality, be coached up to run more ... will that make his ceiling higher?

AR shows that he is a machine playing with little boys in college. A TE playing QB, or an NBA SF playing QB. But nothing shows he'll turn into Brady, Brees, Manning, Mahomes, etc. when he throws into NFL coverage. This "has the highest ceiling" talk is all speculative. It's a wish, man. Stop dropping the mic like it's fact.

High ceiling means 3 coaching staffs and 12+ years to be a championship contending QB. Same trajectory for Justin Fields. He may need 4 coaching staffs.