John Ellis on Stroud v Young

[Jackie Lee]

3 minutes ago, Wes21 said:

Here is a kid that smokes the defense and Bryce makes the throw from a clean pocket.  Stroud would put this on the money and the kid would walk in for a TD and everyone would say it was an easy pass and catch.  I marked where Bryce put the ball with a green dot.

Here is another one that is an easy pass and catch for Stroud.  The kid settles in the zone and is open.  Bryce turns down this pass to scramble around and throw a more difficult pass for a touchdown. 

That's where I get worried that he literally can't see some of these guys and all the exciting scrambling he does is because he's looking for lanes he can see through. Stroud isn't usually as exciting to watch but he's way more efficient

[Bluetooth]

9 minutes ago, Jackie Lee said:

That's where I get worried that he literally can't see some of these guys and all the exciting scrambling he does is because he's looking for lanes he can see through. Stroud isn't usually as exciting to watch but he's way more efficient

CJ is so dependable on the system, most of his throws are time...he hits the WR quickly and hopes they can make a play(not hard when you have playmakers like Harrison JR)...but his weakness at reading coverages before the play is a big red flag. Notice the defender plays the flat instead of blitzing, Michigan adjusted however CJ did not....which had the defender caught the ball, it would've been a pick 6 

[Wes21]

34 minutes ago, Jackie Lee said:

That's where I get worried that he literally can't see some of these guys and all the exciting scrambling he does is because he's looking for lanes he can see through. Stroud isn't usually as exciting to watch but he's way more efficient

The thing that sticks out to me about Stroud is how easy he makes things look.  It can definitely lull you to sleep and just assume he's throwing in rhythm to wide open guys all day.  I had a similar assessment of CJ until I started digging down into the film.  CJ anticipates throws and puts the ball on the money in situations where guys like Bryce are turning down throws.  CJ also seems to prefer subtle pocket movement that buys him a little more time to make a throw, rather that the much cooler looking run around stuff Bryce does.

[Bluetooth]

47 minutes ago, Wes21 said:

The thing that sticks out to me about Stroud is how easy he makes things look.  It can definitely lull you to sleep and just assume he's throwing in rhythm to wide open guys all day.  I had a similar assessment of CJ until I started digging down into the film.  CJ anticipates throws and puts the ball on the money in situations where guys like Bryce are turning down throws.  CJ also seems to prefer subtle pocket movement that buys him a little more time to make a throw, rather that the much cooler looking run around stuff Bryce does.

CJ had a player open but chose to stared down his check down and gets his guy clobber

[ForJimmy]

1 hour ago, Bluetooth said:

CJ is so dependable on the system, most of his throws are time...he hits the WR quickly and hopes they can make a play(not hard when you have playmakers like Harrison JR)...but his weakness at reading coverages before the play is a big red flag. Notice the defender plays the flat instead of blitzing, Michigan adjusted however CJ did not....which had the defender caught the ball, it would've been a pick 6 

Fair and valid points. Young is probably better at pre snap defensive reads. This is definitely something our staff can coach and develop though. A lot of young QBs struggle with that. Young is very mature in that aspect of his game.

[gmonjimbo]

1 hour ago, Wes21 said:

What you just said is certainly the narrative of the season and Bryce Young's situation.  I ran with that until we jumped up to the #1 pick.  That's when I went back and actually reviewed the film.  The film tells a different story.  Bryce was turning down open throws and I have been posting play after play where it has happened.  I will give some more examples.

On this play there are 3 different guys that are different versions of "open."  I'd say the guy standing at the far sideline is the hardest throw to make.  However, if you look at CJ Stroud's game film he would already be in his throwing motion at the point where I snapped this pic.  One of the receivers would have caught it and it would have looked like an easy pass and catch.  On to the next play.  Bryce didn't throw it to any of these guys.  He threw the ball away and the announcer said "nobody was open so Bryce just gets rid of it."

I can't really see the guy on the far left if there is a defender there. I see two guys that are open for a 4-yard gain, making it 3rd and 7.

I don't disagree that QB's that are playmakers or have elite arm talent have a tendency to go for the big play or more difficult throw instead of opting for the simple pass and completion.

However, I push back on the idea he made the receivers look worse than they are. Burton isn't getting drafted and JaCorey Brooks may be a Day 3 pick in 2024 draft. When he had comparable talent at receiver to Ohio State in Metchie and Jameson Williams (who ironically transferred from Ohio State) he won the Heisman and is the only QB to beat Georgia in the last two seasons. 

Stroud is a safe investment at worst I can see him being 15-17th best QB in the NFL. However, at best I see him being 7th to 8th. His ceiling is around the good version of Jared Goff, Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, and Dak Prescott . All those guys are accurate and get the ball out quick and if you have a strong roster around them, can make a playoff run. Yet, they lack the playmaking ability of the QBs in the top 5.

For Stroud, one could argue if he is taken by the Panthers or Texans that he will have an inferior receiving core compared to what he had at OSU. A lot is made about his performance against Georgia. However, after Harrison JR went out with 35 seconds left in the 3rd quarter, OSU was up 14 entering the 4th. They scored 3 points the remaining way. 

[Martin]

My opinion is that if you believe in your system and want a QB to mostly work within that system, Stroud is your guy. If you prioritize someone excelling and extending plays outside of the system you pick Young. Both players are very good at both, but Stroud has an edge within the system. Again, just my opinion.

[gmonjimbo]

19 minutes ago, Martin said:

My opinion is that if you believe in your system and want a QB to mostly work within that system, Stroud is your guy. If you prioritize someone excelling and extending plays outside of the system you pick Young. Both players are very good at both, but Stroud has an edge within the system. Again, just my opinion.

Agree 100%

[*FreeFua*]

Honest question…

If Ohio State wasn’t given that chance against Georgia, would many of you even be considering C.J. at 1?

or where do you think C.J. would have been drafted if Michigan was his final college game?

Edited March 28, 2023 by *FreeFua*

[Martin]

11 minutes ago, *FreeFua* said:

Honest question…

If Ohio State wasn’t given that chance against Georgia, would many of you even be considering C.J. at 1?

or where do you think C.J. would have been drafted if Michigan was his final college game?

If we take away some of what we know about him I’m assuming we would have a different opinion.

[*FreeFua*]

3 minutes ago, Martin said:

If we take away some of what we know about him I’m assuming we would have a different opinion.

Do we think Georgia Stroud is the Stroud we’re getting moving forward?

He’s always shown flashes throughout games of being that player but never to that level. For every play he’s made with his legs there’s a few plays where his footwork goes out the window due to pressure.

There’s 2 seasons worth of tape for them to look at and make a good enough guess as to who he’ll be moving forward. Stroud’s accuracy and ball placement is better than Young’s but that’s when there’s a clean pocket. Stroud was given a lot of space back there most plays, space he won’t have in the NFL often. 

I’m enjoying watching these two because I wasn’t leaning either way going into it. I started off wanting Stroud but I’m slowly wanting Bryce more now

[Martin]

4 minutes ago, *FreeFua* said:

Do we think Georgia Stroud is the Stroud we’re getting moving forward?

He’s always shown flashes throughout games of being that player but never to that level. For every play he’s made with his legs there’s a few plays where his footwork goes out the window due to pressure.

There’s 2 seasons worth of tape for them to look at and make a good enough guess as to who he’ll be moving forward. Stroud’s accuracy and ball placement is better than Young’s but that’s when there’s a clean pocket. Stroud was given a lot of space back there most plays, space he won’t have in the NFL often. 

I’m enjoying watching these two because I wasn’t leaning either way going into it. I started off wanting Stroud but I’m slowly wanting Bryce more now

That’s fair. I think he is that guy and that’s why he’s my preferred QB.

[*FreeFua*]

3 minutes ago, Martin said:

That’s fair. I think he is that guy and that’s why he’s my preferred QB.

I agree, if that’s who you think you’re getting moving forward then you absolutely take him over Bryce

[gmonjimbo]

19 minutes ago, DonPoas said:

Just wanted to say good post and hard to argue with what you bring to light here.  I like them both, but my gut tells me Bryce.  With that said it is difficult to not be put off by all of the too-smallsr noise out there.  

Thanks. At the end of the day, I trust the experience of this coaching staff to develop the QB they choose at 1 into a quality starter even if it's Levis. 

The concerns about Bryce's frame are warranted. Like you my gut says Bryce. I don't think any QB in this class has a better signature game and win on tape than Alabama vs Georgia 2021 SEC Championship

Georgia had an even better defense last year - 5 of their players went in the first round last year (Jorda. Davis, Quay Walker, Travon Walker, Wyatt, and Cine) and combine it with the 3 projected on defense to go in the first this year (Ringo, Jalen Carter, and Nolan Smith). They had a defense of 8 first-rounders, allowing 6 points a game entering their SEC championship game vs Alabama. They lost and gave up 41 points as Bryce set the SEC championship record for passing yards and threw 3 TDs.

Georgia ended up getting their revenge in the championship, but we do have to point out that Metchie and Williams Alabama's top two receivers tore their ACLs before the game and in Wiliams's case beginning of the second quarter.