Moneyball is here

[Bearzzz]

2 hours ago, csx said:

When will people learn that WR1, 2, 3 aren't positions. They are fantasy terms. Learn about x, y slot to understand the dynamics of how wide receivers work together 

I don't want to speak for anyone but to me WR1 is the top WR that gets the best corner or safety help assignment. Not speaking where they line up. It is what type of coverage do they commend. Are they a multiplayer, meaning do they require 2 on 1 coverage, giving the offense single coverage opportunities elsewhere.

[Bearzzz]

12 hours ago, CPantherKing said:

Hate to wake you up, but Bridgewater, Bradford, Keenum, and Cousins have been throwing to Thielen. He has been productive with all of them and Cousins is superior to none of them

Really? Please go look at Cousins stats. He is top 30 all time in passing yards and TD passes.  Doubt any of the others you have mentioned would sniff top 100.

Look, you might be right and maybe Thielen has a bounce back year with Carolina. I'm just saying odds are against him because he is already 32 and will probably see better coverage assignments without a stud on the other side.

[CPantherKing]

 

On 3/25/2023 at 9:52 PM, csx said:

When will people learn that WR1, 2, 3 aren't positions. They are fantasy terms. Learn about x, y slot to understand the dynamics of how wide receivers work together 

 

xyz are locations of receivers and not types of receiver. 123 are types of receivers and will follow with the 1 getting more targets than 2 and 2 getting more targets than 3. Bill Walsh's 1 was a receiver over 6' with great hands and the ability to compete for balls and run precise routes. Frank Reich's 1 is a 6-4 225+ WR with decent speed that has good hands and will body up defenders to physically wear them down. Reid's 1 is extremely fast with good hands and great quickness out of their breaks to get separation with little contact. Every coach has a different type and will make them their 1 to receive the most targets. Their 1s can typically play the X and Z locations with the possibility of the Y location (usually a TE or SE position). 1s will work the sidelines to extend the secondary, and they can be moved to a 2 inside with a route designed to cross to the sideline which makes them the 1. Have you ever heard '2 up is 1'?

Receivers/Coaching 101. Read Bill Walsh's book which is considered the Bible of football for NFL coaches.

[CPantherKing]

21 hours ago, Bearzzz said:

Really? Please go look at Cousins stats. He is top 30 all time in passing yards and TD passes.  Doubt any of the others you have mentioned would sniff top 100.

Look, you might be right and maybe Thielen has a bounce back year with Carolina. I'm just saying odds are against him because he is already 32 and will probably see better coverage assignments without a stud on the other side.

I know about Cousins. I'm not saying he is not better than the others. I am saying Thielen has performed at a high level with all QBs, and Cousins is not the reason Thielen has been able to produce. If anything, Thielen has been the reason the Vikings passing game has been one of the most productive since 2016. The one down year for the passing game was 2019 with Thielen out for almost half the season. Cousins was the QB that year.

[csx]

23 minutes ago, CPantherKing said:

 

 

xyz are locations of receivers and not types of receiver. 123 are types of receivers and will follow with the 1 getting more targets than 2 and 2 getting more targets than 3. Bill Walsh's 1 was a receiver over 6' with great hands and the ability to compete for balls and run precise routes. Frank Reich's 1 is a 6-4 225+ WR with decent speed that has good hands and will body up defenders to physically wear them down. Reid's 1 is extremely fast with good hands and great quickness out of their breaks to get separation with little contact. Every coach has a different type and will make them their 1 to receive the most targets. Their 1s can typically play the X and Z locations with the possibility of the Y location (usually a TE or SE position). 1s will work the sidelines to extend the secondary, and they can be moved to a 2 inside with a route designed to cross to the sideline which makes them the 1. Have you ever heard '2 up is 1'?

Receivers/Coaching 101. Read Bill Walsh's book which is considered the Bible of football for NFL coaches.

WR1, 2, 3 are fantasy terms not types.

 

X, y, etc are roles. Some play multiple roles but the roles have general characteristics. Like the different techniques played by defensive lineman and the player characteristics that fit them.

There's plenty of info online about this if you want to read about it in detail 

[csx]

Thielen is primarily a slot receiver

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-thielen-getting-majority-of-minnesota-slot-wr-work-in-preseason

 

Chark is a primarily an X

https://www.si.com/nfl/lions/news/what-lions-are-getting-in-dj-chark-jr

 

 

[CPantherKing]

42 minutes ago, csx said:

WR1, 2, 3 are fantasy terms not types.

 

X, y, etc are roles. Some play multiple roles but the roles have general characteristics. Like the different techniques played by defensive lineman and the player characteristics that fit them.

There's plenty of info online about this if you want to read about it in detail 

XYZ is not a role. It is a physical location on the field necessary for the rules of the game - Split End, Tight End, Slot, and Flanker. These locations differ in your "role characteristics" based on the type of offense and offensive coaches system.

Gronk played slot. Y is a TE, but the Y differs in systems and sets while always referring to the location of the receiver. Gronk would also line up as the X. Jimmy Graham too. Then you have small receivers that play the Z and move to the Y is some sets. They are still the 1 and will run a 1 route from the Y. Thielen and Randy Moss would run a 2 from the X or Z.

I'm not the one who came up with 1 up is 1, 2 up is 2, or 2 up is 1 to refer to WR coaching.

Anyone who thinks Flanker, Split End, Tight End, and Slot are static roles that have defined characteristics wouldn't be very good at breaking down the receivers in a Run and Shoot, WCO, Air, Spread, Pistol, Power, and Pro. The XYZ (Split, Tight/Slot, and Flanker) are not the same across all these systems.

Roles would be possession, deep threat, route runner, big/shift slot.

Open a book by an actual championship coach and see what they wrote. Stop watching your YT videos of people who don't even play or coach and just want your views. Tell the SB offensive coaching minds they are wrong in their philosophy of a 1, 2, and 3 receiver. Tell them they have been talking in fantasy terms for decades. Bill Walsh disagreed with you and your sources.

[shaqattaq]

1 hour ago, csx said:

Chark is a primarily an X

https://www.si.com/nfl/lions/news/what-lions-are-getting-in-dj-chark-jr

Nice find, I admit that I don't know a lot about Chark.  Seems to be the perfect big play compliment to a workhorse kind of guy like Thielen.

[csx]

1 hour ago, shaqattaq said:

Nice find, I admit that I don't know a lot about Chark.  Seems to be the perfect big play compliment to a workhorse kind of guy like Thielen.

On paper it's a good mix with Thielen in slot and Marshall at Z. Marshall was used in various ways but seemed to be mostly a mix of x and z. It will be interesting to see how the new staff uses him.  They are likely to mix these guys up but they will have their primary roles.

[Bearzzz]

4 hours ago, CPantherKing said:

If anything, Thielen has been the reason the Vikings passing game has been one of the most productive since 2016. The one down year for the passing game was 2019 with Thielen out for almost half the season. Cousins was the QB that year.

Thielen played 10 games in 2019. Possible their passing game may have been down because he missed 6 games. It may also have to do with Dalvin Cook's breakout year. He carried the rock 250 times. I am not saying Thielen was not a good receiver. I just wouldn't hang my hat on a 32 year old WR. Especially since his yards per catch have been on a downward slide since 2019.

[shaqattaq]

2 hours ago, csx said:

On paper it's a good mix with Thielen in slot and Marshall at Z. Marshall was used in various ways but seemed to be mostly a mix of x and z. It will be interesting to see how the new staff uses him.  They are likely to mix these guys up but they will have their primary roles.

Throw in a pass-catching TE and RB, and it's enough to get your loins all tingly! And that's not counting the draft possibilities.

[CPantherKing]

3 hours ago, Bearzzz said:

Thielen played 10 games in 2019. Possible their passing game may have been down because he missed 6 games. It may also have to do with Dalvin Cook's breakout year. He carried the rock 250 times. I am not saying Thielen was not a good receiver. I just wouldn't hang my hat on a 32 year old WR. Especially since his yards per catch have been on a downward slide since 2019.

I'm good with Thielen as a 32 year old receiver. Same as I would with Travis Kelce, Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, and Anquan Boldin in their early 30s (4 of the 6 leading playoff receivers since 2012). I do not expect him to be the physical workhorse receiver that will be the primary target. That receiver I would want to be 26 to 28 with a few years of proven potential under their belt.

The prime age for any QB or receiver to be an NFL champion is 29 years or older.

2022 Chiefs top 4 targets were 28 years or older (2 over 30;#1 33).

Over the past 10 NFL Champions, there have been 40 players with 50 or more targets on the season. 9 have been 30 years or older, 22 have been 28 years or older. 7 of the 10 teams #1 targeted WR/TE have been 28 or older (4 of the 7 have been 30 years or older). 2 of the other 3 were 27.

This has held up over history too with the Packers of the 60s, the Steelers of the 70s, the 49ers/Washington of the 80s with the passing offense emerging as a championship formula, the Cowboys/Broncos of the 90s, and the Patriots of the 2000s,

It's rare to find a championship team with QB and receivers 25 and under. Those teams lose more often and are 1 and done in the playoffs. 

You can even go back to the aerial show in the 1992 playoffs with Frank Reich 31 and Warren Moon 36 at QB in the playoffs and see that Andre Reed 28, James Lofton 36, Don Beebe 28 Pete Metzelaars 32, Haywood Jeffries 28, Webster Slaughter 28, Curtis Duncan 27, and Ernest Givins 28 were the receivers.

I want receivers in the age range of 28 to 34 with proven success. I want a QB 29 to 32 who has been to playoffs a few times (winning is not needed). For a championship team, the only positions I want to start young and hold onto them as long as they produce are RB, OL, EDGE, and LB. The other positions are only good young if you have an established team or vet championship players to carry them.

[Basbear]

On 3/25/2023 at 12:45 AM, DJ feed me moore said:

you need to see wolf of wallstreet ASAP

Ive got a weird deal about not watching certain movies, Ive not seen limitless either. No idea why no to wolf, besides i had a exgf that could pass for margots stunt-double. Been at peace about that for years, tho. 

For the record @RJK is right. I vastly changed my movie rating scores over the last 20 years. Basically added 3 points (curve) to all movies on the 0-10 scale, total horseshit is being marketed for the last 20 years and it forced me to adjust and quit watching all in general. But i did see war dogs, its a bro flick and solid 5 with current rating scale.  

I need to watch wolf and a few others.. 

[Bearzzz]

5 hours ago, CPantherKing said:

I'm good with Thielen as a 32 year old receiver. Same as I would with Travis Kelce, Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, and Anquan Boldin in their early 30s (4 of the 6 leading playoff receivers since 2012). I do not expect him to be the physical workhorse receiver that will be the primary target. That receiver I would want to be 26 to 28 with a few years of proven potential under their belt.

The prime age for any QB or receiver to be an NFL champion is 29 years or older.

2022 Chiefs top 4 targets were 28 years or older (2 over 30;#1 33).

Over the past 10 NFL Champions, there have been 40 players with 50 or more targets on the season. 9 have been 30 years or older, 22 have been 28 years or older. 7 of the 10 teams #1 targeted WR/TE have been 28 or older (4 of the 7 have been 30 years or older). 2 of the other 3 were 27.

This has held up over history too with the Packers of the 60s, the Steelers of the 70s, the 49ers/Washington of the 80s with the passing offense emerging as a championship formula, the Cowboys/Broncos of the 90s, and the Patriots of the 2000s,

It's rare to find a championship team with QB and receivers 25 and under. Those teams lose more often and are 1 and done in the playoffs. 

You can even go back to the aerial show in the 1992 playoffs with Frank Reich 31 and Warren Moon 36 at QB in the playoffs and see that Andre Reed 28, James Lofton 36, Don Beebe 28 Pete Metzelaars 32, Haywood Jeffries 28, Webster Slaughter 28, Curtis Duncan 27, and Ernest Givins 28 were the receivers.

I want receivers in the age range of 28 to 34 with proven success. I want a QB 29 to 32 who has been to playoffs a few times (winning is not needed). For a championship team, the only positions I want to start young and hold onto them as long as they produce are RB, OL, EDGE, and LB. The other positions are only good young if you have an established team or vet championship players to carry them.

https://news.yahoo.com/end-numbers-just-didn-t-181100213.html