The QB Debate

[Sim1saint]

Pro days are done for the major candidates. Our access to information on the prospect as general fans has officially closed as any further information such as private visits would be privy to the team.

We can now properly begin discussions as to which quarterback are we drafting at 1, because obviously we’re going QB?

I hope yal enjoy reading. if you don’t or if it’s TLDR

PS not I’m not a saints fan, I’m ‘The’ Sim1saint so don’t my username my post

 

Starting off with their respective ranks on how efficient the QBs are at passing the football. 

All the tables are for 2022 and from sportsinfosolutions (SPI)

Pass EPA Rank
C.J. Stroud    
4

Bryce Young    
6

Anthony Richardson    
52

Will Levis    
55

The EPA ranks show what we expected, both Stroud and Bryce are among the best passers college football. Their production exceed expectations based on field position & down compared to their counterparts.

Now for how good their offensive teammates are.

Receiving    Pass Blocking
Ohio State (Stroud)    
2nd

54th

Alabama (Young)    
11th

76th

Florida (Richardson)    
26th

18th

Kentucky (Levis)    
16th

16th

“Richardson’s receiving corps was definitely the most limited among this group. Their on-target catch rate was below average, which wasn’t true of the other three schools. It’s the same with contested-catch situations: Florida receivers came down with just 25% of such throws, compared to an FBS average of 32%.

None of these players had poor offensive lines that might tilt our evaluations, but Levis and Richardson did benefit from pretty stout pass blocking overall. That’s something to keep in mind when looking at their pressure rates, which are both higher than average. That suggests they’re inviting pressure to an extent that could prove troublesome at the next level. (SPI)”

Looking at these stats it’s plain that Stroud has the best weapons to work with but the disparity between 2nd & 11th isn’t that drastic imo. Also the blocking for both Stroud & Young weren’t ideal which bodes well for their projections as prospects, as their passing production was efficient given the suboptimal pass protection compared to their peers.

 

Now to look at how many ‘easy passes’ they had, you know screens and wide open players.

Screen%    Wide Open % (Non-Screen)    Total
C.J. Stroud    
10%

14%    24%
Bryce Young    
11%

19%    
30%

Anthony Richardson    
9%

21%    
30%

Will Levis    
16%

13%    29%
FBS Average    
13%

14%

 

“While only Levis was given specifically more screens than average, all of these prospects had their fair share of easy throws in 2022. Only Stroud ended up with fewer total easy throws than the FBS average.

On these easy throws, Richardson’s accuracy numbers are the worst of the group.  That could be seen as a large problem with his mechanics, or as low-hanging fruit to achieve quick improvement.

If we’re trying to choose the “winner” of this comparison, we might give Stroud the advantage for having fewer “gimmes”. (SPI)”

 

This we can dice up multiple ways they already go into AR & Levis so I’ll dive into potential ways of viewing it from Stroud & Young

Pro Stroud- His passing accuracy is elite to the point that he efficiently threaded the ball in windows that most QBs wouldn’t attempt. This will translate well as in the NFL the throwing windows are much tighter and he has produced with what is expected to be similar circumstances to be expected in the NFL.

Con Stroud- Maybe he isn’t finding the most optimal target since his receiving options are considered elite.

Pro Young- He is diagnosing the defense efficiently and is anticipating where the open targets will be and is delivering efficient results.

Con Young- Maybe the reason his targets are open is due to his ‘Mahomes-esque’ play style extending plays which could potentially lead to taking extra hits which can bring his smaller frame to light as there are concerns whether he can handle the wear and tear of a 20-21 game season (yes superbowl amount of games, don’t stop at 17)

 

Now to look at player mobility because in todays NFL you gotta move them feet if you want to QB. Play % (Rank)

Play Action %    RPO %    Designed Rollout %
Ohio State (Stroud)    19% (39)    14% (95)    11% (17)
Alabama (Young)    18% (57)    32% (14)    3% (112)
Florida (Richardson)    31% (1)    29% (22)    12% (16)
Kentucky (Levis)    17% (65)    10% (113)    7% (58)
“Richardson stands out here, but in a way that is probably somewhat consistent with how he’d be used at the NFL level. (Well, maybe not quite so many RPOs, since both he and Young used them at a rate higher than any NFL team.) It makes sense to get him on the move on designed rollouts to leverage his athleticism outside the pocket, but he was productive as a passer in those situations, too.

Stroud has benefited from the simpler reads that come from designed rollouts, ranking in the top 10 in Independent Quarterback Rating each of the last two years on those plays. He’s not the same athlete as Richardson, so the threat to the defense isn’t the same, but it’s something that the team that drafts him probably would like to integrate.” (SPI)

 

Check the mobile box off, with each QB having designed plays that make them use their legs respectively at:

Stroud- 44%

Young- 53%

Richardson- 72%

Levis- 34%

 

Now for regular ole drop back passes we got our QB Ranks without using legs (w/o Play-Action,  RPO, or Rollouts)

 

Total Points / Play    IQR
C.J. Stroud    2    7
Bryce Young    1    2
Anthony Richardson    38    87
Will Levis    66    59
Looking as far back as 2018, Young and Stroud each have two seasons in the top ten in the Total Points per play split (over 400 player seasons qualify). They’re joined exclusively by first round picks at the top: Kyler Murray, Justin Fields, and Mac Jones have the three best seasons. 

Young coming at the top here is particularly compelling because of how RPO-dependent the Alabama offense is. Even if we remove those elements—which we know to be utilized less at the next level—he shows outstanding performance worthy of a top selection. 

It’s an interesting contrast with Stroud, whose production is hard to claim is superior, but who arguably did so with fewer schematic supports to lean on. (SPI)”

 

So it looks like we’re down to 2 main things to look at since Stroud and Young have set themselves apart from the pack.

Didn't mention the combine or pro days because it doesn’t matter these are QBs. It’s not relevant when assessing the position. Only thing you can draw are measurables, but again the play is what matters when diagnosing QBs. (Other than interviews, but we obviously don’t know about it, and I’m not leaking my sources information either).

Both are extremely efficient quarterbacks at throwing the ball. Stroud excels at delivering pinpoint accuracy, and Bryce excels at getting the ball to the open receiver.

Both seem mobile as Stroud has a decent split of RPO & designed roll outs, and Young has a higher percentage of RPO respectively. 

What sets these 2 players apart isn’t the fact that one is 6’3” and the other is 5’10”.  What is it? you may ask… I’ll let you know if you keep reading.

Before we go into that let’s look at what we might expect from a Reich Ran Offense, what some on the block call the RRO. To do this I looked up some stuff on the internet about his colts and found:

“The Colts are one of the shotgun heavier teams in the NFL. This past season, they were in shotgun on 76 percent of their offensive snapsaccording to Football Outsiders. That was the sixth-highest rate in the NFL.” (turfshowtimes)

“The Colts ran 43 with Ryan at quarterback, per Pro Football Focus – the 13th-most in the NFL entering Week 8. Last year, the Colts were 15th in the NFL with 101 RPO plays; with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback in 2019, they were 12th with 92 RPOs. Those have always been a part of Reich’s offense.” (turfshowtimes)

So now we got a look at what RRO is all about let’s look at our 2 options and see how they can potentially fit the RRO.

Alabama was almost exclusively in shotgun this past season, (SI)

Stroud was in shotgun on 86% of his dropbacks (per PFF), he played in an NFL offensive scheme, both under center and in the gun. (the33rdteam)

So what, it looks like the RRO is going to feature heavy amount shotgun and a fair amount of RPOs, (rough math at 65 offensive plays per game and assuming they go with the highest amount of RPOs ran under reich with Brissett) at about 10% of their plays.

So where does that leave us?

Yes both of them are excellent passers of the football, yes they both are capable of using their legs as a dual threat option, and yes they both play efficient football.

This is where the bread and butter is at, the bee’s knees, the holy cannoli!

Who fits what we want to do, not who’s better, who’s going to make us better.

6’3” this 190 pounds soaking wet that! Don’t matter, the answer is simple.

Bryce Young is almost strictly a shotgun QB and yes Reich will definitely run a lot of shotgun and Bryce would look nice doing it. But what about the 25% of the plays ran from under center. Up to this point Bryce Young hasn’t proven that he can be an efficient QB playing under center. Maybe he’d be great at it but unfortunately the tape isn’t there to analyze, and this is what sets Bryce Christopher Young aka “The Gingerbread Man” and “CJ” Coleridge Bernard Stroud IV apart (where in the world does that J come from?!?).

CJ Stroud has shown that he is capable and has shown a much diversified track record of being used in different concepts & formations. This will allow Reich the confidence to use every square inch of his playbook, and even add some pages as CJ grows into his system.

So that should settle the debate it’s not who’s better it’s who’s better for us, the Panthers and more specifically the guy running the show David Tepper. T-Dog (yeah I gave Tepper a nickname cuz google didn’t provide one) hired Reich to coach the team, and you got to let the coach get his guy if you want to give yourself the best chance at winning. And based on my analysis, which I believe myself to be a pretty good armchair gm, believe CJ Stroud should be the pick.

*Mic Drop*

Congratulations on making it to the end of my assessment on who to draft at 1!

 

Links: (I take no responsibility)

https://www.si.com/nfl/colts/.amp/film/shane-steichen-build-bryce-young

https://www.sportsinfosolutions.com/2023/03/15/the-2023-qb-conversation-how-teammate-and-schematic-context-impacts-it/

https://www.the33rdteam.com/category/nfl-draft/elite-arm-talent-quiet-mind-make-c-j-stroud-future-franchise-qb/

https://www.turfshowtimes.com/platform/amp/2023/1/17/23558831/rams-offensive-coordinator-frank-reich-sean-mcvay

 

T-Dog I’m open for employment if you’re interested. I’m a natural problem solver, all I have to my name is a Master’s degree in Physics and a strong love for my Panthers. (Never hurts to try)

 

 

[therealmjl]

Dark mode

[SaltAndPepper]

I could be wrong, but has there ever been a more spirited debate in franchise history?

[Jon Snow]

Cannot see it.

[rayzor]

i fixed it so everyone can see it.

 

 

see...i can be useful.

[MHS831]

Awesome analysis.  I detected some bias in that processing and vision were not elevated--this is based on productivity and experience---the assets Young has are not as visible.  But I get the logic and I see them as equals right now--I think this is as good a job of measuring the immeasurable as I have seen.  Thanks for the contribution. 

[therealmjl]

5 minutes ago, rayzor said:

i fixed it so everyone can see it.

 

 

see...i can be useful.

Thanks. Do you mind providing as TLDR version as well?

[ForJimmy]

5 minutes ago, rayzor said:

i fixed it so everyone can see it.

 

 

see...i can be useful.

[therealmjl]

I will say thanks @Sim1saint. I’m just too lazy to read

[TheCasillas]

18 minutes ago, Sim1saint said:

None of these players had poor offensive lines that might tilt our evaluations, but Levis and Richardson did benefit from pretty stout pass blocking overall. That’s something to keep in mind when looking at their pressure rates, which are both higher than average. That suggests they’re inviting pressure to an extent that could prove troublesome at the next level. (SPI)”

this is a classic case where the data does not match the output. Levis had one of the worst offensive lines in the nation last year. There is no debating that.  There is no way KY had better pass protection than Alabama and OSU..... 

[ForJimmy]

7 minutes ago, TheCasillas said:

this is a classic case where the data does not match the output. Levis had one of the worst offensive lines in the nation last year. There is no debating that.  There is no way KY had better pass protection than Alabama and OSU..... 

Yep it's similar to the Bears OL having a good overall PFF rating, but half of their starting OL was bottom of the league in PFF rating??? 

[panther4life]

5 minutes ago, SaltAndPepper said:

I could be wrong, but has there ever been a more spirited debate in franchise history?

My memory isn’t great, but there were a lot of people who wanted Blaine Gabbert over Cam back in 2011. I’d still say most were correct in wanting Cam but it wasn’t 100%. Again my memory sucks but I think there was a large porting who wanted Marcell Dareus the DT.

Side note, that was one of the most top heavy drafts in terms of talent we have ever seen. Von Miller, Patrick Peterson,A.J Green, Julio Jones, J.J Watt,Aldon Smith, Tyron Smith were all top 11 picks and the only bad choices were the QB’s not named Cam (Gabbert and Locker)

[stan786]

1 minute ago, ForJimmy said:

Yep it's similar to the Bears OL having a good overall PFF rating, but half of their starting OL was bottom of the league in PFF rating??? 

PFF always finds interesting ways to contradict itself, its pretty hilarious.

[rayzor]

3 minutes ago, therealmjl said:

Thanks. Do you mind providing as TLDR version as well?

Young and CJ are far ahead of everyone else.

Both do everything well.

Deciding factor will be % under center. Reich offenses spend more time out of the shotgun than any other team, but they still were under center about 25%. 

Young was almost exclusively in the shotgun, but Stroud was in the shotgun 86% so he's more accustomed to playing under center.  there will need to be an adjustment to learning how to play under center for CJ,. but it won't be as big an adjustment as it would be for Young.

Therefore, according to the OP, CJ should be the pick.

Lots of good info in the OP, btw and y'all should definitely read it if you are wondering why Young and CJ are considered way far ahead of any other QB. Both are, imo, ready to go day 1. Levis and AR....not so much and i think this team is ready to and looking to win now, not in 2,3,5,or 7 years. 

It will be one of those two and they will start week 1 and everything leading up to week 1 will be with that goal in mind, starting the rookie...as it should be for a QB picked that high/early.