Looking at Success or Failure of top 10 to 12 QBs since 2000

[Moorgan]

4 minutes ago, Riverboat Ron said:

The key is to draft the best QB, I don’t understand why it’s so hard for GMs.

Someone should start a thread about which QB is the best this year.

[Obeg]

29 minutes ago, mickeye76 said:

I was skeptical that 2000 had no QB taken in first round. So quick Google search and Chad Pennington. Who despite a tough career did play very well for the Jets resulting in playoffs and decent stats.  Hell I'd take him over Vick.  Chad was accurate and a decent human being.  Vick was on a rival team so my take will always be "yeah he can run and he's good but fug that dog killin pos." 

His criteria was top 10 pick.

[mickeye76]

1 hour ago, Obeg said:

His criteria was top 10 pick.

I don't read so good.  Lol.  I was thinking something was off cause I knew there is always lots of qbs taken in first. Then there was the year Alex Smith went early and Rodgers chilled in the green room so...  He kinda lost me with his rankings.  As soon as he said Vick was great. I mean what did he really do?  He terrorised us obviously and gave ATL fans something to be excited bout but I never liked him. Wrong team.  Cam was a TD machine and ran the ball just as well.  Sure ATL fans would only call Cam good. 

[GoobyPls]

Op QB rankings are awful. 

[Jay Roosevelt]

This is exactly what worries me with the Young/Stroud debate. History tells us at least one of them is likely not going to pan out and of course there's always the possibility we're looking at a Carr/Harrington situation where both will end up being busts.

How far back do we have to go to find a draft with 2 top QBs competing to be the #1 overall pick where both ended up being studs? You could make an argument for 2012 with Luck and RG3, but obviously RG3's injury derailed his career so we'll never know.

Probably the best example is 2004 with Eli Manning and Philp Rivers, but there were also unique circumstances since Eli outright said he didn't want to play for the Chargers.

[Basbear]

14 minutes ago, Jay Roosevelt said:

This is exactly what worries me with the Young/Stroud debate. History tells us at least one of them is likely not going to pan out and of course there's always the possibility we're looking at a Carr/Harrington situation where both will end up being busts.

How far back do we have to go to find a draft with 2 top QBs competing to be the #1 overall pick where both ended up being studs? You could make an argument for 2012 with Luck and RG3, but obviously RG3's injury derailed his career so we'll never know.

Probably the best example is 2004 with Eli Manning and Philp Rivers, but there were also unique circumstances since Eli outright said he didn't want to play for the Chargers.

What I fall down on is frank, josh, and jim are in the building. Between coaching QBs and starting, theres a MASSIVE amount of knowledge on hand. 

 

Some can say "Josh hasnt coach QBs before", true. He also played and mainly as a backup for 19 years......houston was heavily rumored to want his as HC. Philly begged him over and over to be a QB coach. In most of those years, he was a QB coach. 

Frank and Jim, two old heads that forgot more about QBing than the hive mind at thee huddle.

They have everything on hand to limit the pick being a bust. 

Thats how I see it. 

Im a official stroud stan, but if they decide the midget....errrrA young is the choice, I will cut back on 80% of my short/small BSing... I may even ask my guy @ForJimmy to approve the 20% remaining jokes for taste and time.....

[jasonluckydog]

This is why I was getting hate when we gave up the farm for a rookie qb ...when we could have gotten a proven QB like Carr or L Jackson. The draft is a total crap shoot. You could get a young Cam or you can get a J Russell. The 49ers struck gold with the last pick. There is no true number 1 qbs in this draft in my opinion.  I hope I'm wrong and we pick the right one. In 3 years everyone will grade this draft and laugh that some random QB in the 5th round was the best qb taken. 

[Hoenheim]

10 hours ago, GOAT said:

holy cow bro, it looks like you've already been ripped enough for these rankings but my god.

I can't change it to assuage all the cry baby's in this thread so you're stuck with it. I've already explained multiple times but people like to be selectively aggressive and ignore everything else. 

At least some people tried to see the point I was trying to make instead of assuming the fetal position and crying about good or great qbs. 

 

[bababoey]

Jay Cutler was alot of things but a bust was not one of them.  A guy who started for 12 years and threw for over 35,000 yards is not a bust.

[Mr Mojo Risin]

On 3/23/2023 at 9:47 PM, Hoenheim said:

This isn't a foolproof list but thought it was interesting. Some conclusions near the bottom. Some players I was kinda torn on how to rate (ex debatable whether some are considered average or busts)

 

 

2000 (No QBs)

2001 M. Vick (Great)

2002 David Carr, Joey Harrington (busts)

2003 Carson Palmer (avg) , Byron Leftwich (Bust) 

2004 Eli Manning (good) , Philip Rivers (good) , Ben Roethlisberger (good)  

2005 Alex Smith (avg)

2006 Vince Young, Matt Lienart, Jay Cutler (all busts)

2007 JaMarcus Russel (bust)

2008 Matt Ryan (good) 

2009 Mat Stafford (good), Mark Sanchez (bust)

2010 Sam Bradford (Bust?) 

2011 Cam Newton (Good), Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder (all busts) 

2012 Andrew Luck (good) , RG III (bust), Ryan Tannehill (average) 

2013 No QBs 

2014 Blake Bortles (Bust) 

2015 Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota (busts) 

2016 Jared Goff (Good), Carson Wentz (Bust) 

2017  Mitch Trubisky (Bust), Pat Mahomes (great), D Watson (great) 

2018  Baker Mayfield (bust), Sam Darnold (bust), Josh Allen (great), Josh Rosen (bust)

2019 Kyler Murray (good), D. Jones (avg)

2020 Joe Burrow (great), Tua (good), Herbert  (great) 

2021 T. Lawrence (great), Z. Wilson (bust), T. Lance (bust), J. Fields (good) 

2022 (No QBs) 

 

23 busts 

5 average QBs

11 good QBs 

7 great QBs 

Looking in totality the odds of last 20 years of getting at least a good QB at #1  aren't too bad. 

Generally getting the 2nd highest QB in the draft is bad luck...

Maybe this will give you guys some comfort, #1 QB since 2000 has about 12/19 or 63% chance of being average good or great.

 

IMO, Carson Palmer was better than average. 14 seasons almost 50k passing and 300 TDs. By far better than average

[rebelrouser]

On 3/23/2023 at 11:13 PM, jfra78 said:

I guess it depends on what your definition of a bust is.  Mine would be out of the league in 3 years.  Maybe do Franchise Qb or not 

 

Yeah, Mayfield is not a bust. He was a long term starter for Browns, started for us, and now is starting for Bucs. Not a long term solution but you can't start that much and be a bust. 

[GOAT]

14 hours ago, Hoenheim said:

I can't change it to assuage all the cry baby's in this thread so you're stuck with it. I've already explained multiple times but people like to be selectively aggressive and ignore everything else. 

At least some people tried to see the point I was trying to make instead of assuming the fetal position and crying about good or great qbs. 

 

bruh it was an ass thread, ass rankings. sometimes you just gotta take your L. change your avatar too btw wtf lmao.

[Sub Zero]

Yeah this was a bad attempt.. You tried to make a fact based breakdown but used your personal opinion to rate the QB’s??? Lmao

[CPantherKing]

12 hours ago, jasonluckydog said:

This is why I was getting hate when we gave up the farm for a rookie qb ...when we could have gotten a proven QB like Carr or L Jackson. The draft is a total crap shoot. You could get a young Cam or you can get a J Russell. The 49ers struck gold with the last pick. There is no true number 1 qbs in this draft in my opinion.  I hope I'm wrong and we pick the right one. In 3 years everyone will grade this draft and laugh that some random QB in the 5th round was the best qb taken. 

Lamar Jackson, some Colts players and a pool of 2nd/3rd round picks are the target (~10 total draft picks for 2023). Just need 2 1st round picks to get Jackson. Texans will easily give up 1 for Bryce Young. Colts will easily give up 1 for for CJ Stroud. Lions may trade up to 4 to jump the Seahawks for Anthony Richardson to give the Panthers another 1st round pick. There would be other picks that come with the compensation packages to convince the Panthers to give up these QBs to the Texans, Colts, and Seahawks.

After giving the Texans and Colts what they want, the Panthers have 2 2024 1st round picks and the #6 pick this year. That is more than enough to get Lamar Jackson. So, the Panthers are choosing from 3 QBs here. Young, Stroud, and Jackson. If the Panthers can deal Richardson to the Seahawks and Levis to the Raiders, that is a bonus.

After the draft, all the Panthers need as capital to get Lamar Jackson is two of the highest value 1st round picks from the 2024/2025 season from the Texans, Colts, Raiders, and Panthers.

Compensation for Young and Stroud will likely be their 1st round pick this year, 2024 1st round pick, and 2 second round picks. For Richardson and Levis, I would say 1st round picks this year and next, 3rd round pick, and 5th round pick. I think Reich would want to try to get a player or two from the Colts in a trade.

At the least, Panthers end up with Lamar Jackson, Colts player(s), #4 pick, 3 2nd round picks, a 2024 1st round pick, and a 2024 2nd round pick (If the Texans and Colts want Young and Stroud). If the Lions and Raiders want Richardson and Levis, the Panthers could add to those 2nd and 3rd round picks this year and 1st round picks next year.

That is the value of the QB driver seat in 2023 with overrated QBs - especially when you have coaches connected to the Colts and Lions. Panthers focus on the maneuvering of draft picks to eliminate the draft capital expense for acquiring Lamar Jackson. If they can't get the Texans and Colts to pay the picks to get Lamar Jackson while at least breaking even on what they gave up to move up into the driver seat, then they have their fall back with Stroud or Young if they do waste all that draft capital on an unproven rookie QB.

Lamar Jackson is still an option. Fitt called him a great but expensive option, and they want to focus on draft picks now. A Lamar Jackson offer sheet would happen after the draft if the Panthers get everything they want while dictating who gets each of the 4 QBs.

Tepper loves leverage and deals, and he will continue to take the Carolina fan base on this wild ride. Dealing Young and Stroud to the Texans and Colts is a very good possibility if the Panthers get their asking price.