Looking at Success or Failure of top 10 to 12 QBs since 2000

[Hoenheim]

4 minutes ago, Shotgun said:

Lawrence has had sustained success? How many winning seasons has he had?

 

Just now, Hoenheim said:

In fact reclassifiying the good and greats into 1 "good" category makes it more concise and less prone to mockery from the peanut gallery  

23 busts 

5 average QBs

18 good QBs

23 busts vs 23 avg or good QBs 

#1 QB 63% chance of being "non bust"

 

[frankw]

2021 draft is still quite recent I would not even call Lawrence a great success just yet and even Lance and Wilson still have time albeit not that much. Fields has shown legit potential but he needs to take several steps in this upcoming season or he's teetering on the edge.

Overall the odds aren't as bad as you'd think based on this list. But they also aren't as good as some people are making it out to be rationalizing downplaying very real concerns for the top 2 QB's in this years draft. Stroud or Young may not even end up being the best.

Edited March 24, 2023 by frankw

[Hoenheim]

I'd make a disclaimer or change the original post into just good and not good vs great but I can't.  That was my mistake now everyone's just going to hyper focus on the wrong thing, the good vs great qbs isn't my point.  

My point is the busts vs non busts  especially as it relates to first QB taken.  The biggest take away is #1 QB selected had about 63% of not being a bust. That seems to imply taking QB first overall is less of a crapshoot then some people make it out to be and might assuage some people's fears of it not working out.

 

[shaq]

14 minutes ago, Hoenheim said:

I'd make a disclaimer or change the original post into just good and not good vs great but I can't.  That was my mistake now everyone's just going to hyper focus on the wrong thing, the good vs great qbs isn't my point.  

My point is the busts vs non busts  especially as it relates to first QB taken.  The biggest take away is #1 QB selected had about 63% of not being a bust. That seems to imply taking QB first overall is less of a crapshoot then some people make it out to be and might assuage some people's fears of it not working out.

 

Learning experience, don’t worry about it  I see your point. Just can’t confuse people with the subjective,  non statistically based differential arguments you made between good and great.

[pantherj]

26 minutes ago, Hoenheim said:

In fact reclassifiying the good and greats into 1 "good" category makes it more concise and less prone to mockery from the peanut gallery  

23 busts 

5 average QBs

18 good QBs

23 busts vs 23 avg or good QBs 

#1 QB 63% chance of being "non bust"

And 5.57% the QB is great.

[Hoenheim]

2 minutes ago, pantherj said:

And 5.57% the QB is great.

Is that going off of what you consider as great or what the original post listed as great? 

If it's the original post, ignore that and consider all good or great qbs as "good" 

[CPantherKing]

You are better off avoiding a 1st round QB unless they are a consensus pedigree 5 star QB who has had consistent success in college over 4 years. You will miss a lot more than you hit and waste the draft capital needed to build a championship roster.

My standard for a top 10 pick QB is instant starter, playoff winner, consistent SB contender, and min 10 year career. Otherwise, you are just as well off drafting the 1st round QB who falls out of the 1st round.

85% of QBs who are given a franchise QB opportunity make it to the playoffs. Doesn't matter what round. 1st round picks actually get to the playoffs 80% of the time. 6th round to undrafted QBs who are given the franchise QB opportunity get to the playoffs 90% of the time. The top 10 QBs you listed who are given a franchise QB opportunity get to the playoffs 70% of the time.

My standard of success for QBs related to their draft position is not who gets drafted or who gets a franchise QB opportunity. I want to know what QBs successfully lead their draft team for multiple years. Level 1 success is getting the team to the playoffs. Level 2 success is winning with their team in the playoffs. Level 3 success is getting their team to a championship. Level 4 success is winning a championship and getting to the SB with their drafted team. Level 5 success is winning the SB with their team. Break each level of success down by round. You will be surprised how overrated 1st round QBs have been and continue to be.

1st round QBs who have failed their draft position and redeemed themselves with another team at the SB level happen every decade. Jim Plunkett/Doug Williams from the 70s. Steve Young from the 80s. Trent Dilfer from the 90s. Matthew Stafford from the 2000s. There will be one of the many failed 1st round QBs from the 2010s that will add themselves to this list (Panthers fans have been hoping to find this rare failure through their lineup of Bridgewater, Darnold, and Mayfield). My money is on Lamar Jackson achieving this once in a decade feat.

[stratocatter]

All this is why you shouldn’t spend future number ones on a current number one. But people are stupid. 

[BIGH2001]

9 minutes ago, stratocatter said:

All this is why you shouldn’t spend future number ones on a current number one. But people are stupid. 

Because our QB plan in between #1 picks has gone so well.

[Brooklyn 3.0]

This thread sucks.

[kungfoodude]

8 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Manning (two rings), Roethlisberger (two rings), and Rivers are all three HOF locks and are "good" while Vick is "great"?

Literally stopped reading after that.

[stratocatter]

4 minutes ago, BIGH2001 said:

Because our QB plan in between #1 picks has gone so well.

Rhule. Tepper 1.0.

If this desperation move to get a QB doesn’t work, it gets worse from here not better.

[Obeg]

I applaud the effort to illustrate the obvious issue we face. You certainly messed up with the ratings.  Probably been better off just ranking as "QB who signed (or will sign) next contract with drafting team as the starter."

Most likely (based on past performance) our pick this year will NOT turn out to be a "franchise QB".  That is just the fact.  

 

 

[ForJimmy]

I think coaching staff can have a lot to do with it. Lawrence with Meyer vs Pederson. Some elite ones can win in spite of their staff (like Cam), but it definitely helps and we have a good one. Our team is also built for a rookie QB right now. I think several of them are capable of finding success in Carolina.