Looking at Success or Failure of top 10 to 12 QBs since 2000

[Hoenheim]

This isn't a foolproof list but thought it was interesting. Some conclusions near the bottom. Some players I was kinda torn on how to rate (ex debatable whether some are considered average or busts)

 

 

2000 (No QBs)

2001 M. Vick (Great)

2002 David Carr, Joey Harrington (busts)

2003 Carson Palmer (avg) , Byron Leftwich (Bust) 

2004 Eli Manning (good) , Philip Rivers (good) , Ben Roethlisberger (good)  

2005 Alex Smith (avg)

2006 Vince Young, Matt Lienart, Jay Cutler (all busts)

2007 JaMarcus Russel (bust)

2008 Matt Ryan (good) 

2009 Mat Stafford (good), Mark Sanchez (bust)

2010 Sam Bradford (Bust?) 

2011 Cam Newton (Good), Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder (all busts) 

2012 Andrew Luck (good) , RG III (bust), Ryan Tannehill (average) 

2013 No QBs 

2014 Blake Bortles (Bust) 

2015 Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota (busts) 

2016 Jared Goff (Good), Carson Wentz (Bust) 

2017  Mitch Trubisky (Bust), Pat Mahomes (great), D Watson (great) 

2018  Baker Mayfield (bust), Sam Darnold (bust), Josh Allen (great), Josh Rosen (bust)

2019 Kyler Murray (good), D. Jones (avg)

2020 Joe Burrow (great), Tua (good), Herbert  (great) 

2021 T. Lawrence (great), Z. Wilson (bust), T. Lance (bust), J. Fields (good) 

2022 (No QBs) 

 

23 busts 

5 average QBs

11 good QBs 

7 great QBs 

Looking in totality the odds of last 20 years of getting at least a good QB at #1  aren't too bad. 

Generally getting the 2nd highest QB in the draft is bad luck...

Maybe this will give you guys some comfort, #1 QB since 2000 has about 12/19 or 63% chance of being average good or great.

 

[LinvilleGorge]

Manning (two rings), Roethlisberger (two rings), and Rivers are all three HOF locks and are "good" while Vick is "great"?

[WUnderhill]

How is Vick great, and 3 hofers (Manning, Rivers, Ben) are just good? I haven’t made it past that tbh, just glad this isn’t somebody trying to be a total wet blanket.

[Hoenheim]

The key is the difference between busts and non busts. Yes it's debatable whether some QBs are good or great. You could lump them or order them however you want. 

 

[Hoenheim]

8 minutes ago, WUnderhill said:

How is Vick great, and 3 hofers (Manning, Rivers, Ben) are just good? I haven’t made it past that tbh, just glad this isn’t somebody trying to be a total wet blanket.

That's my own personal opinion that isn't solely based on super bowls or stats   I really should've just had 2 categories of busts or non bust. Because these QB rankings always get people throwing hissy fits   

Just think of it as bust or not bust.

[Hoenheim]

Okay you babies, make Vick good, Eli Rivers Ben Cam Luck Stafford as great, and the recent great qbs as good bc longevity with the exception of Mahomes.  

The final point still stands bc it's comparing busts vs non busts. 

Edited March 24, 2023 by Hoenheim

[LinvilleGorge]

I honestly wouldn't consider Wentz a bust. Before the injuries took their toll he was MVP caliber.

[LinvilleGorge]

Trevor Lawrence is already great but Cam was only good...

[jfra78]

I guess it depends on what your definition of a bust is.  Mine would be out of the league in 3 years.  Maybe do Franchise Qb or not 

 

[Hoenheim]

Just now, LinvilleGorge said:

I honestly wouldn't consider Wentz a bust. Before the injuries took their toll he was MVP caliber.

For the sake of the point of the thread I had to make some fairly hard choices.  Almost all of them are debatable to some degree. 

I'm looking at it from a totality perspective.  Whatever his reasons,  Wentz could not sustain success 

[Hoenheim]

2 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Trevor Lawrence is already great but Cam was only good...

Hard to rank really recent QBs. A lot of the good/great rankings are a little subjective but the main point is that they are GOOD + . All the QBs you're bitching about for the purpose of the argument are in same category. I'd revise it to just bust, avg, good if I could but it won't let me 

[Shotgun]

Lawrence has had sustained success? How many winning seasons has he had?

[Hoenheim]

In fact reclassifiying the good and greats into 1 "good" category makes it more concise and less prone to mockery from the peanut gallery  

23 busts 

5 average QBs

18 good QBs

23 busts vs 23 avg or good QBs 

#1 QB 63% chance of being "non bust"

[Teddy2SuperBowlHeartBreaks]

The “great” Trevor Lawrence has had like 5 NFL games where he hasn’t completely poo the bed.