How Carolina can / has already Improved the Passing Game

[LinvilleGorge]

Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me. Rhule definitely had "his guys". I mean, he absolutely insisted on playing Elflein over Bozeman when Bozeman was obviously the superior center. While Ron's depth chart decisions seemed to have a lot of sense of loyalty built in, Rhule's depth chart decisions seemed to be primarily driven by just pure ego.

[heel31ok]

1 hour ago, MHS831 said:

Disclaimer: The following contains speculation supported with statistical analyses to make some general comments that should demonstrate how the Panthers' front office has already provided our new QB some options.  The numbers are practical guesstimates, based on a player's past performance and ability to remain healthy.

Terrace Marshall Jr. (WR)

 

Terrace Marshall will be turning 23 in June.  He played in 13 games in 2022, and was targeted 47 times, gaining 490 yards on 28 receptions.  In games where he was targeted over 3 times (4 games) he averaged 61.5 yards per game.  Putting that into perspective, it would equate to 1045 yards if he was consistently targeted more than 3 times per game over a 17-game season.  So whatever the reason he did not get more looks—poor route running or poor QB play-- averaging over 10 yards per target is impressive. 

 

As the 22-year old enters year three in the NFL, expect an increase in productivity and maturity.  His mechanics should be better, and this new coaching staff will become evident in his development.  Do not sell TMJ short; as the #2 WR, I see a year where he is targeted 5-7 times per game, something that should boost his targets from under 50 to over 100.  While it is doubtful that he maintains a 10-yard-per-target average, it is reasonable to expect a 700-800 yard season out of Marshall simply by increasing his targets to 6 per game. If so, that increases his productivity by 200-300 yards.

 

Laviska Shenault (WR)

 

Most Huddlers would agree that Shenault was not used well last season with the Panthers.  He was not asked to run the route tree as much as he was used as a wrinkle or gimmick. Looking at the 16 games he played in Jacksonville (as they struggled to find an offense there) he was targeted 100 times and finished the season with 619 yards.  With a poor OL and a QB trying to figure things out, when targeted about 6 times per game, he was able to average close to 40 yards per game.  With a better OL and better QB play (hopefully), Shenault should be able to return to 2021 form.  In 2022, Carolina targeted Shenault under three times per game and finished with 272 yards—half as often as he was targeted in Jacksonville, and Shenault caught 27/32---an impressive number.  A reasonable projection would be to increase the targets to Shenault to 50-60 and get Shenault to a total of 500 yards for the season, increasing Shenault's productivity by about 200-250 yards.

 

Hayden Hurst (TE)

 

In 2022 with the Bengals, Hayden played 13 games and was targeted just over 5 times per game for an average of 32 yards per game.  Here in Carolina in 2022, for the last 4 seasons, Ian Thomas was targeted fewer that twice per game, and in each of the last 4 seasons, Thomas has been under 200 yards receiving.  So if Hurst continues his current level of productivity, we double the yardage from the starting TE and we add a target in the red zone. Expect Hurst to be targeted around 5 times per game and have about 500-600 yards in Carolina this season, considering the lack of a true, alpha WR.  This would increase productivity from the starting TE around 300-400 yards.

 

Miles Sanders (RB)

 

Forget the fact that Sanders has averaged 927 yards per season rushing the ball since being drafted 4 years ago, this is about his receiving capabilities.  He was probably underutilized as a pass catcher in Philly since Hurts took over as QB, which is why I think he will become an all-pro in Carolina.  In 2019, the Eagles targeted Sanders 63 times for 509 yards in 16 games.  In 2021 and 2022, the Eagles targeted Sanders only 34 and 26 times (in 17 games) respectively, signifying the changes that coincided with Jalen Hurts becoming the QB. His receiving numbers became rather pedestrian. In 2022, D’Onta Foreman had 9 targets for 26 yards, and Chubba Hubbard had 17 targets for 117 yards.  Expect Sanders use as a receiver to escalate to somewhere in the area of 50 targets, meaning that we could expect to more than double our RB receiving numbers to somewhere around 400 yards, improving RB receiving yardage 200-250 yards (this is modest).

 

SUMMARY

The suggested targets to each individual comes to 15 targets per game, leaving about 15 targets (the NFL average is about 30 pass attempts per game) for the #1 WR and the #3/4 WR and other players.  If these estimates hold up, the increase in productivity--through maturation, better utilization, and upgrades should improve the receiving efficiency by about 1000 yards--the number of yards we lost when we traded DJ Moore.  The point being, we do not have to add a 1000-yard WR in free agency to avoid total ruin.  We can add a solid pro and a draft pick and we'd be so much improved in the passing game.

While I am breathing into brown paper bags when someone says, "Wide Receiver" in my vicinity, we simply need to bring in a solid #1 WR and draft a rookie. If our current talent develops as I think they will (by being used properly and having a better QB), we should be fine.

I like those guys.

[PantherOnTheProwl1523]

We struck gold when we drafted Steve Smith Sr deep in the draft didn't we. If we can get a WR in the draft that has the skillset he has that will work with our scheme he can be a star player in time(but not to long)or a starter right out the gates and be our WR #1.

Edited March 19, 2023 by PantherOnTheProwl1523

[Soul Rebel]

Agree 100% on TMJ stepping up with this coaching staff. Brown and Jefferson will have him primed for big time....def a RZ threat for a young QB. 

I'm of the opinion that Shenault should be more of a Patterson/Harvin type of weapon then be depended upon for a heavy WR workload. Gadgety guy that should have been used more out of the backfield...especially with Sanders threatening back there. 

If we could bring in someone like Sutton and have two big-bodied targets with he and TMJ that would be outstanding. Then snag Flowers in the draft....we would be in great shape. 

[kungfoodude]

3 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I love Jeremy Chinn and in a perfect world I'd want him to be a career Panther but given our roster needs I'd be talking to the Bengals about Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. They're stacked at WR and fresh out of safeties. We're stacked with defensive tweeners and fresh out of WRs. It makes all the sense in the world.

 

We will see. We have no idea what the complete vision is for offense or defense.

[KatsAzz]

5 hours ago, MHS831 said:

I have just seen young players who are underutilized totally break out when the opportunity presents itself. With Robbie/Robby/Chosen and DJ suddenly gone, opportunity is now.   Most are thinking that Marshall is a near bust and Shenault is a French swiss army knife, and I think that is not the case.  We shall see.

You made some real valid points in your opening post. However, I would still like to see the Panthers select a potential # 1 type WR in the 2nd rd , or trade down near the top of the 1st rd if one were available.

[DaveThePanther2008]

6 hours ago, Pejorative Miscreant said:

I think Hurst and Sanders are pretty good relief valves for a rookie QB but we do need an offensive threat to emerge.  I dont know if TMJ was under utilized by an inept coaching staff or it took him a while to catch on or both, however he seemed to come along some under McAdoo and Wilkes so hopefully he can make a jump.

God knows we don't need to be known for our best weapon is a TE.  

[SmokinwithWilly]

6 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I love Jeremy Chinn and in a perfect world I'd want him to be a career Panther but given our roster needs I'd be talking to the Bengals about Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. They're stacked at WR and fresh out of safeties. We're stacked with defensive tweeners and fresh out of WRs. It makes all the sense in the world.

 

The only downside is Chinn looked his worst playing safety. He was much more effective closer to the line. I don't think the value for him is there yet to be able to trade for a guy like Higgins. He needs a year outside of the Rhule/Wilks defense closer to the line to showcase his talent. 

[LinvilleGorge]

10 minutes ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

The only downside is Chinn looked his worst playing safety. He was much more effective closer to the line. I don't think the value for him is there yet to be able to trade for a guy like Higgins. He needs a year outside of the Rhule/Wilks defense closer to the line to showcase his talent. 

They just lost Von Bell (to us). Bell and Chinn are similar players stylistically.

[Basbear]

Where's thee WR savior Preston Williams?!?!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

sorta not joking...sorta

 

 

 

 

[SmokinwithWilly]

5 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

They just lost Von Bell (to us). Bell and Chinn are similar players stylistically.

But while Bell has been trending up, Chinn has trended down since his rookie year. I just don't think we would get what we perceive to be his trade value. 

[LinvilleGorge]

6 minutes ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

But while Bell has been trending up, Chinn has trended down since his rookie year. I just don't think we would get what we perceive to be his trade value. 

Because we haven't been playing Chinn to his strengths the lady two seasons. He's been playing primarily as a deep FA the past two seasons. NFL teams watch the tape on players they're trading for. No one would be trading for Chinn to play him as a single high FS like we've been stupidly doing.

[Basbear]

4 minutes ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

But while Bell has been trending up, Chinn has trended down since his rookie year. I just don't think we would get what we perceive to be his trade value. 

A smart GM would be trying to extend him while his value is on the downside...