Vegas Odds on First Overall Draft Pick

[MHS831]

Who was it that said, "Watch the combine, then go back and look at the tape." ?

[Doc Holiday]

12 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Who was it that said, "Watch the combine, then go back and look at the tape." ?

I dont know, but I do like to listen to Dan Patrick and Colin Cowherd a lot so I could have very well picked up this train of thought from either of them. Colin is full of crap with what he says sometimes, but at others he may be one of the more insightful people in sports talk radio. two of my must listen to radio programs, it will literally make you a better educated sports fan. 

Edited March 13, 2023 by Doc Holiday

[Sub Zero]

these guys make great points…

[Bluetooth]

I'm starting to think AR-15 Combine made the Panthers jump to #1, those deep balls and 40 time put him in another atmosphere. 

[Sub Zero]

8 minutes ago, Bluetooth said:

I'm starting to think AR-15 Combine made the Panthers jump to #1, those deep balls and 40 time put him in another atmosphere. 

Then we are really a dumb organization if we let the combine make the decision for us.. Plus we just gave up a haul and a corner stone for a player that could be had at 3 or 5..

Edited March 13, 2023 by Sub Zero

[3838]

2 hours ago, jayboogieman said:

The superwild card out of nowhere pick that will destroy this fanbase,

And purple monkeys could fly out of my.... 

[Bluetooth]

3 hours ago, Sub Zero said:

Then we are really a dumb organization if we let the combine make the decision for us.. Plus we just gave up a haul and a corner stone for a player that could be had at 3 or 5..

I’ve heard the same rumors everyone else has—that Frank Reich loves Florida QB Anthony Richardson. And he may be the pick. But I’m a bit skeptical. Nothing against Richardson, who is one of the most interesting QB prospects in the past few drafts. I wonder, though, about trading two first-round picks, two second-round picks and one of your five best players for a player with a high ceiling but with one year as a college starter. Trading to number one and choosing Richardson might turn out to be brilliant. But picking Richardson number one after dealing five prime pieces for him is a major risk.

[tukafan21]

6 hours ago, Doyle said:

My guess is either Richardson or Levis falls drastically.  It happens every year.  I bet it's Richardson.  He will be a 2nd or 3rd round gamble for someone.  

No chance

100% chance that picks 1 and 2 will be QB's, 98% chance the Colts take a QB at #4 (and that might be a low percentage).

There are way too many QB needy teams right now that won't pass up on either Richardson or Levis (whichever isn't taken from those 3 picks above) in the first round.  Hell, even if you wanted to make arguments that the 4th won't go in the Top 10 in the end, I'd be willing to guarantee there is no way a 4th QB slips past #20, likely not past #18.

The Lions and Seahawks are both in situations where they have temporary starting QB's and need a QB of the future, and both of them have 2 first rounders.  I can't see a scenario where their second picks come up at 18 and 20 and one of them doesn't take that 4th QB if for some wild reason they're still sitting out there (they're both rumored to be considering a QB with their first pick as is).  It's one thing for them to want to use their Top 10 picks on players that can help them win now, but I don't think they'd pass on the QB with their second picks in the round.

Beyond them, I don't think Washington would pass on someone at 16, depending what happens with the Jets and Rodgers, they might not pass on one at 13 either, and I'd think the Bucs would also jump at any of the 4 QB's if one fell to them at 19.

And all of that is if someone other than the Colts doesn't trade up to #3 (if that happens, QB's are going 1-4) and if both the Raiders and Falcons pass on one as well.

TLDR.... 0% chance the 4th QB falls out of the first, I'd say 5% chance they fall outside the Top 20, and probably only a 10-15% chance they fall outside the Top 10.

Edited March 13, 2023 by tukafan21

[jayboogieman]

9 hours ago, 3838 said:

And purple monkeys could fly out of my.... 

He's bigger, can run, threw for more yards, and has a higher completion percentage than Stroud. That's everything the huddle wants in its QB. What's the problem?

Edited March 13, 2023 by jayboogieman

[jayboogieman]

10 hours ago, Sub Zero said:

Then we are really a dumb organization

You could have stopped right there. The Panthers have proven that since the team was formed.

[MechaZain]

AR's exciting because he seems very coachable for a project. He made every throw in the combine, had the most maturity of all of them in his interviews. Kid's simply new to football and untapped. I hear the "#1 overall should be an instant franchise starter" point and that's completely fair, but if this staff is everything it's cracked up to be they can mold Richardson into something far greater than any of the other options. 

 

[NJPanthers89]

Richardsons athletic ability make Cam almost look pedestrian.  Thats not a knock on Cam , That’s how much of a freak athlete this kid is.  If Reich and staff think they can get him caught up in the passing game by year 3 then it’s a no brainer.  At absolute worst he’s Justin Fields running down everyone’s throat for two years.  Stroud can throw accurately, but when the pocket breaks down as it often does in the NFL, how consistent will he be.   That’s what this staff needs to project..

 

[MHS831]

For what it’s worth, Stroud has the highest ceiling of any QB in the 2023 NFL Draft. His arm talent is A1, his mobility is above-average and Stroud has shown up in big games against great teams.

[ForJimmy]

1 hour ago, MHS831 said:

For what it’s worth, Stroud has the highest ceiling of any QB in the 2023 NFL Draft. His arm talent is A1, his mobility is above-average and Stroud has shown up in big games against great teams.

Yeah to me Stroud’s floor is Goff and his ceiling is Burrow.