Vegas Odds on First Overall Draft Pick

[MHS831]

2023 NFL DRAFT - FIRST OVERALL PICK ODDS 

(Thought I would post this so we can see how it changes as we approach the draft)

CJ Stroud (Ohio State, QB) -300
Bryce Young (Alabama, QB) +300
Anthony Richardson (Florida, QB) +450
Will Levis (Kentucky, QB) +3000
Will Anderson (Alabama, LB) +10000
Jalen Carter (Georgia, DL) +10000

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/draft/

From another source:

Though there are still nearly seven weeks until the NFL Draft, Griffe and Cipollini agree that Carolina is trending toward taking Stroud.

"Stroud makes the most sense here, given both his performance at the combine and his overall makeup as a QB, going into Frank Reich and Josh McCown’s system," Griffe said. "Richardson is the wild card here, though. I could see a scenario where the Panthers fall in love with his athletic ability and rely on their experienced staff to coach him up." 

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/c-j-stroud-new-betting-favorite-to-be-no-1-pick-in-2023-nfl-draft

[Doyle]

My guess is either Richardson or Levis falls drastically.  It happens every year.  I bet it's Richardson.  He will be a 2nd or 3rd round gamble for someone.  

[CamWhoaaCam]

I seen some quotes by Frank he was talking about the QB position and how the league you need QB's who can move and make plays with their legs and be dynamic as a run threat. If someone has the link feel free to post it.

 

Anyway that makes me think AR might be the reason we might look to trade back if the rumors are true.

 

I think if they stay at #1 Stroud or Young are the pick. If they trade back with the Texans AR might be the pick. We shall see still a long way before we know who they actually want.

[csx]

Someone said it was Young clear cut and without question. Nobody told the rest of the world though 

[jayboogieman]

The superwild card out of nowhere pick that will destroy this fanbase,

[FuFuLamePoo]

Yeah, it's fun to speculate and I know there's already been the trade down rumors but you just don't make a move up to #1 like this unless there's one guy you're set on. The trade down stuff I'd assume is just us throwing a hail mary seeing if we can convince Houston we're taking their guy when in actuality we want the other and recoup some value. But I think there's one guy we have our eyes on, and with Person saying it's probably Stroud I trust him.

[ECHornet]

If we were going to trade down to acquire more picks, I don’t think we would have given up DJ. 

[Sgt Schultz]

22 minutes ago, jayboogieman said:

The superwild card out of nowhere pick that will destroy this fanbase,

[Doc Holiday]

1 hour ago, Doyle said:

My guess is either Richardson or Levis falls drastically.  It happens every year.  I bet it's Richardson.  He will be a 2nd or 3rd round gamble for someone.  

Richardsons game tape passing the ball is not great at all. Projects dont go in round 1, but someone may still bite because unlike last year, there is gonna be a run on QB's early. 

[Sub Zero]

58 minutes ago, CamWhoaaCam said:

I seen some quotes by Frank he was talking about the QB position and how the league you need QB's who can move and make plays with their legs and be dynamic as a run threat. If someone has the link feel free to post it.

 

Anyway that makes me think AR might be the reason we might look to trade back if the rumors are true.

 

I think if they stay at #1 Stroud or Young are the pick. If they trade back with the Texans AR might be the pick. We shall see still a long way before we know who they actually want.

They aren’t trading back.. If Richardson was the guy they could have gotten to 3 and 5 for less.. They are going for the top 2 guys and that’s why this move was made.. Don’t listen to the smokescreens..

[Jackie Lee]

10 minutes ago, Doc Holiday said:

Richardsons game tape passing the ball is not great at all. Projects dont go in round 1, but someone may still bite because unlike last year, there is gonna be a run on QB's early. 

If Stroud and Young go 1/2, It's gonna be tough for Carter and Anderson to not go 3/4. It's really not that mind blowing of a 1st round class after those 4. Pick 5-mid 2nd round is kinda whatever you need and who you like kinda for that need kinda thing

[Sgt Schultz]

Just now, Sub Zero said:

They aren’t trading back.. If Richardson was the guy they could have gotten to 3 and 5 for less.. They are going for the top 2 guys and that’s why this move was made.. Don’t listen to the smokescreens..

Most likely, going to 3 or 5 does not involve anything more than draft picks.  I'm still surprised Chicago was willing to drop to 9.

Of course, Arizona may have demanded DJ as settlement for the fraud we committed when we represented "Chosen" as a wide receiver in the trade with them last season. 

[MHS831]

5 minutes ago, Doc Holiday said:

Richardsons game tape passing the ball is not great at all. Projects dont go in round 1, but someone may still bite because unlike last year, there is gonna be a run on QB's early. 

Yes.  The man is hard to watch without being impressed.  However, at the QB spot, you really need precision, accuracy, processing, and leadership--things we don't see a the combine as much as we see 3 cone drills and vertical leaps.  Running a 40 may be impressive--and he is an impressive athlete--but as you say, he is a project.  Workout warriors have always been fool's gold at the combine-so you can't get all smitten with a player by being overwhelmed by things that are not the essential tools required for success at the position.

For example, I may be impressed that an OT can do 37 reps on the bench, but if he has not feet, upper body strength is not important. 

Did this recent Lamar Jackson snubbing hurt AR-15's stock? They are fairly similar.

 

[Doc Holiday]

5 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Yes.  The man is hard to watch without being impressed.  However, at the QB spot, you really need precision, accuracy, processing, and leadership--things we don't see a the combine as much as we see 3 cone drills and vertical leaps.  Running a 40 may be impressive--and he is an impressive athlete--but as you say, he is a project.  Workout warriors have always been fool's gold at the combine-so you can't get all smitten with a player by being overwhelmed by things that are not the essential tools required for success at the position.

For example, I may be impressed that an OT can do 37 reps on the bench, but if he has not feet, upper body strength is not important. 

Did this recent Lamar Jackson snubbing hurt AR-15's stock? They are fairly similar.

 

What I've been saying about the combine in recent years is that the combine is there for you to either do a direct comparison or find a red flags. with red flags being the main thing you're looking for.  

You should have players on your board based on their tape, and only drop based on things you find out as you go through the process. 

 

Edited March 13, 2023 by Doc Holiday