Saints Sign Derek Carr to 4 year deal.

[PantherPhann89]

1 minute ago, Seltzer said:

Enron's finances looked great until they didn't. 

Everyone thought Bernie Madoff was a genius until he wasn't.

You can navigate a lot of financial situations in this world with accounting tricks, but at some point math is still math.  You can't make 2+2 not equal 4 forever.

Go to overthecap and actually dig into the numbers.  There are no easy fixes the next few years with the Saints cap.  The cap has been kicked to the point I honestly wonder how they will field a 53 man roster in a couple of years if they face even an average amount of injuries and need replacements.

Every team in the league could do what the Saints have.  They haven't b/c eventually you do have to pay the piper.

I'll give credit to Dennis Allen for trying to buy some job security.  He was the only one who was willing to clean up Sean Payton's mess, and it will be even harder to find someone to clean up the bigger mess he is going to leave.

I really am surprised someone from the outside is not advising Gayle Benson better.  In all of sports, I can't ever remember this level of financial malfeasance being celebrated.

1. It's either being covered up, which I can't imagine why.

2. It hasn't been investigated yet. 

3. They're guys enough to continue whatever their doing without drawing the right/wrong attention...

[Seltzer]

8 minutes ago, PantherPhann89 said:

1. It's either being covered up, which I can't imagine why.

2. It hasn't been investigated yet. 

3. They're guys enough to continue whatever their doing without drawing the right/wrong attention...

My point wasn't to imply that they were doing anything illegal or unethical, just that to Saints fans and outside observers they may seem like geniuses now, but the underlying math simply doesn't support that position over the long term.

In business, after exhausting all legal accounting tricks, there is a temptation to move onto something illegal to continue the charade and keep the house of cards from collapsing.

There is obviously more transparency with NFL contracts, so they can't do something illegal per se without people knowing about it.

However, the cracks in this approach have already been showing.  The Saints had injuries this year and had very little depth to deal with it.  That is already a direct reflection of their cap management.

They are rapidly approaching a scenario where their entire team will consist of a few high-priced players making a lot of money, draft picks (controller salaries), UDFA's and league-minimum veterans, and an ungodly amount of dead money for players not on their team (and some who haven't been on the team for years).

Any GM who thinks that is a good long-term strategy, especially now with a 17-game season (and potentially an 18-game season) is not fit to be in that position.  Depth matters more now than ever before, and they are employing a strategy that simply doesn't value depth.

My biggest point is this, there are a litany of reasons the other 31 teams in the league don't follow this strategy unless they are nearing the end of a SB window.

The Saints are not geniuses for bucking this trend.  They are selling their fanbase a house of cards that is getting ready to collapse and take them years to recover from.

[Khyber53]

27 minutes ago, Seltzer said:

Enron's finances looked great until they didn't. 

Everyone thought Bernie Madoff was a genius until he wasn't.

You can navigate a lot of financial situations in this world with accounting tricks, but at some point math is still math.  You can't make 2+2 not equal 4 forever.

Go to overthecap and actually dig into the numbers.  There are no easy fixes the next few years with the Saints cap.  The cap has been kicked to the point I honestly wonder how they will field a 53 man roster in a couple of years if they face even an average amount of injuries and need replacements.

Every team in the league could do what the Saints have.  They haven't b/c eventually you do have to pay the piper.

I'll give credit to Dennis Allen for trying to buy some job security.  He was the only one who was willing to clean up Sean Payton's mess, and it will be even harder to find someone to clean up the bigger mess he is going to leave.

I really am surprised someone from the outside is not advising Gayle Benson better.  In all of sports, I can't ever remember this level of financial malfeasance being celebrated.

Sooner or later, that Voodoun Mambo is going to come back and get her pound of flesh for the magic she did to get the Saints to that one Super Bowl.  The swamp, it always claims back its own...

[CPantherKing]

4 hours ago, CarolinaRideorDie said:

Now we will see if it was really the Raiders sucking or Carr sucking? 

Well he did need to lead 10 GWDs over the last 2 seasons with the Gruden fiasco and getting Josh McDaniels as his HC. The Raiders are a 3 win team without Carr and the Panthers would have been an 11/12 win team with Carr and Wilks for a full year.

Saints are a 9/10 win team with Carr.

38.5% GWD in the past 2 seasons. He is at the prime age for a SB contending QB. 65% comp  tells you he makes good decisions more often than most NFL QBs. 70% is elite which he was near the last 2 seasons in Gruden's system. He is one of the most accurate passers in the NFL. It wasn't Carr.

[CarolinaRideorDie]

7 minutes ago, CPantherKing said:

Well he did need to lead 10 GWDs over the last 2 seasons with the Gruden fiasco and getting Josh McDaniels as his HC. The Raiders are a 3 win team without Carr and the Panthers would have been an 11/12 win team with Carr and Wilks for a full year.

Saints are a 9/10 win team with Carr.

38.5% GWD in the past 2 seasons. He is at the prime age for a SB contending QB. 65% comp  tells you he makes good decisions more often than most NFL QBs. 70% is elite which he was near the last 2 seasons in Gruden's system. He is one of the most accurate passers in the NFL. It wasn't Carr.

I don't think Carr is a terrible QB, I just don't think he has enough to get a team to the supberowl. Analytics and stats are great to go off of, but there are the "intangibles" that's not accounted for. Kirk, Rodgers, and Dak have some great stats, etc, but why do they perennial drop out of the playoffs? 

[StealthCat]

Not sure how they can afford this, and I didn't know that free agency had started. 

[Mr. Scot]

1 minute ago, StealthCat said:

Not sure how they can afford this, and I didn't know that free agency had started. 

It hasn't. Carr was released.

[Sgt Schultz]

20 minutes ago, Seltzer said:

My point wasn't to imply that they were doing anything illegal or unethical, just that to Saints fans and outside observers they may seem like geniuses now, but the underlying math simply doesn't support that position over the long term.

In business, after exhausting all legal accounting tricks, there is a temptation to move onto something illegal to continue the charade and keep the house of cards from collapsing.

There is obviously more transparency with NFL contracts, so they can't do something illegal per se without people knowing about it.

However, the cracks in this approach have already been showing.  The Saints had injuries this year and had very little depth to deal with it.  That is already a direct reflection of their cap management.

They are rapidly approaching a scenario where their entire team will consist of a few high-priced players making a lot of money, draft picks (controller salaries), UDFA's and league-minimum veterans, and an ungodly amount of dead money for players not on their team (and some who haven't been on the team for years).

Any GM who thinks that is a good long-term strategy, especially now with a 17-game season (and potentially an 18-game season) is not fit to be in that position.  Depth matters more now than ever before, and they are employing a strategy that simply doesn't value depth.

My biggest point is this, there are a litany of reasons the other 31 teams in the league don't follow this strategy unless they are nearing the end of a SB window.

The Saints are not geniuses for bucking this trend.  They are selling their fanbase a house of cards that is getting ready to collapse and take them years to recover from.

One of the reasons the other 31 teams aren't following this model is that it has produced one Owl and two NFCC appearances in the last 13 seasons.  It is just too many gyrations, too much risk, and too many variables that are out of their control for too little payoff. 

The Rams and Bucs have as many Owls in that time, and the Rams more Owl appearances by only pushing all their chips to the center of the table once. 

[GoobyPls]

Thank god 

[Evil Hurney]

1 hour ago, NanuqoftheNorth said:

Yeah it does.

1. Guessing the third year is essentially the big payoff and the 4th year never happens w/either a restructure or cut.  Still need more details on this contract.

2.  Carr must not have been getting positive vibes from the Panthers.  Otherwise, why settle for 15 mil in years one and two from the Saints before hearing the Panthers out?

1. Without details, I'm guessing 3rd year has some type of $30M roster bonus or guaranteed salary. If true and the Saints were to cut him they would have ~$40M in dead cap but "save" $15M vs the cap (pre-June 1). Unless the two decide to part ways, it will almost likely be restructured to spread that guarantee out over another 3-4 years. Basically this is a 2 year deal with an option for an extension.

2. Carr isn't settling for $15M per year. He is pocketing $70M over 2 years ($35M per year) with leverage to get another contract and more money in year 3. The cap charges are just how the accountants decided to spread out that money.

[Seltzer]

5 minutes ago, Sgt Schultz said:

One of the reasons the other 31 teams aren't following this model is that it has produced one Owl and two NFCC appearances in the last 13 seasons.  It is just too many gyrations, too much risk, and too many variables that are out of their control for too little payoff. 

The Rams and Bucs have as many Owls in that time, and the Rams more Owl appearances by only pushing all their chips to the center of the table once. 

This 100%.  Again, it's astounding to me that Gayle Benson doesn't have someone independent of Saints management advising her on this.  It's one thing to basically turn over the reins to Sean Payton when you have a first ballot hall of famer in Brees and let them run things unimpeded (although you can easily make the case the Saints would have been better to have had some more checks and balances on the personnel side).

But even Sean knew the gig was up.  Doubling down (and at an even higher level these past 2 years) is financial malfeasance rarely seen by a professional organization.  Mickey Loomis was not a good GM before Brees/Payton, and he certainly isn't one now.  But being a patsy to Sean Payton while you have Brees is one thing.  Allowing that same dynamic with a retread like Dennis Allen is a recipe for setting your franchise back half a decade.

Even someone who made as many questionable personnel decisions as Marty Hurney must be alarmed at this level of ineptitude.  This is the type of move that really will lead Aints fans back to understanding that the Payton/Brees era was the aberration.  This is who their franchise truly is.  Incompetence personified.  They may even want to replace the paper bags with plastic this time to escape this misery.

I hope Gayle Benson and Mickey Loomis run this team the rest of my life.

[Evil Hurney]

1 hour ago, Seltzer said:

I'll give credit to Dennis Allen for trying to buy some job security.  He was the only one who was willing to clean up Sean Payton's mess, and it will be even harder to find someone to clean up the bigger mess he is going to leave.

This deal says to me that DA has 2 years to win. If not he and Carr are out while they blow things up. Just in time to tank for Arch Manning

Edited March 6, 2023 by Evil Hurney

[Seltzer]

2 minutes ago, Evil Hurney said:

This deal says to me that DA has 2 years to win. If not he and Carr are out while they blow things up.

Who are you going to bring in to clean up that inevitable mess, though?  The Saints cap is not going to be in any better shape 2 years from now than it is today.  That's the thing I can't comprehend.

Payton left b/c he saw the writing on the wall, but then somehow the Loomis/Allen braintrust convinced Gayle Benson that doubling down (even more) was the way to go.

The Saints 2 years from now, unless something massively unforeseen happens, will be in the worst shape of any franchise in the league.  Paper bag bad again.

This is a good day as a Panthers fan.  I had just gotten use to the Saints being a competent franchise.  Glad to be returning to the normal equilibrium of the Saints being a poverty franchise again.

[WUnderhill]

2 hours ago, CPcavedweller said:

Wait, so lower demand equals a higher price? That is not how supply-demand work at all. The less suitors, the less expensive it becomes to trade up, period. They aren't going to hold onto it out of spite. 

That was exactly my point. The Saints weren’t a suitor, so him signing immediately with the Saints was a bad thing for the Panthers. While Carr was available, the Bears risked losing suitors the longer they held onto the pick.