Saints Sign Derek Carr to 4 year deal.

[t96]

1 minute ago, Mr. Scot said:

Breer confirms...

 

so pretty much $70M guaranteed as that $10M vesting in '24 is a lock. If they do cut him after 2 years before having paid out $100M they'd likely have a massive dead cap hit which makes that pretty unlikely. So $60M officially fully guaranteed but really $70M is 100% and $100M is likely. Way too much for my liking. 

[Soul Rebel]

Mannnnnnnn, if Carr goes down with a substantial injury, the Saints are screwed. This is very on-brand for them, so not surprised in the least, and kudos to Fitts & Co. for driving the price up.

[top dawg]

28 minutes ago, t96 said:

woof $150M with 100 guaranteed. Glad we didn't make that mistake just to be a wildcard round exit at best

I just heard on ESPN radio that it's 70 million in guarantees, but 100 mil guaranteed in total. 

Edited March 6, 2023 by top dawg

[top dawg]

Hell, who cares? It was too much!

[Seltzer]

1 minute ago, Mr. Scot said:

Breer confirms...

 

This is insanity to manage a cap like this for a guy like Carr that has never even won a playoff game.  The Saints are structuring things like they signed Mahomes to a loaded roster ready to win a SB.

Seriously, they have to restructure everyone else possible over the next 2 years just and have Carr's salary artificially low the first 3 years just to make this work.

Then, in the 4th year of this deal (!!) when he may not even be on the roster, will be when the massive cap hits start.

I'm sorry, the Panthers have made plenty of bad contract/ salary cap management decisions, but nothing to this level.

No Saints fan in the world with a triple digit IQ could honestly look at this situation objectively long-term and think this is a good plan.  This is not salary cap wizardry.  This is doubling down on Sean Payton's bad decisions (which he bolted over) and making it even worse for the next coach.

Dennis Allen may have bought himself some job security over this b/c no coach in their right mind is going to want to clean up this debacle.

[WUnderhill]

2 hours ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

Not really. You always go into negotiations knowing where your limits are to start with. If you go past that, you fug yourself. You have to be willing to walk away. If you aren't, it's not negotiation, it's desperation. We've already seen what happens with that. Being the only suitor for Darnold with our starter being PJ Walker. 

I mean yeah you have your max but you try not to spend it if you don’t have to. Carr signing with Saints gives Bears leverage to play hard ball because the threat of losing suitors as time goes on lessens.

[SmokinwithWilly]

1 minute ago, WUnderhill said:

I mean yeah you have your max but you try not to spend it if you don’t have to. Carr signing with Saints gives Bears leverage to play hard ball because the threat of losing suitors as time goes on lessens.

I don't think the Bears want 9, I think they want 4. If they can get Houston to trade up to 1, then move from 2 to 4, they get picks they desperately need and still end up with 1 of the top 2 defensive players in the draft. They could very well be using our interest to get Houston and Indy seriously into the game. 

[WUnderhill]

3 minutes ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

I don't think the Bears want 9, I think they want 4. If they can get Houston to trade up to 1, then move from 2 to 4, they get picks they desperately need and still end up with 1 of the top 2 defensive players in the draft. They could very well be using our interest to get Houston and Indy seriously into the game. 

Ok you’re right nothing matters it’s all set in stone already and Bears GM mentioning Carr by name and talking about teams trying to get resolution on the trade because of the availability of him and other options means nothing

[thunderraiden]

 

[Evil Hurney]

11 minutes ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

I don't think the Bears want 9, I think they want 4. If they can get Houston to trade up to 1, then move from 2 to 4, they get picks they desperately need and still end up with 1 of the top 2 defensive players in the draft. They could very well be using our interest to get Houston and Indy seriously into the game. 

Bears lose leverage by trading with Houston 

[CPcavedweller]

16 minutes ago, WUnderhill said:

I mean yeah you have your max but you try not to spend it if you don’t have to. Carr signing with Saints gives Bears leverage to play hard ball because the threat of losing suitors as time goes on lessens.

Wait, so lower demand equals a higher price? That is not how supply-demand work at all. The less suitors, the less expensive it becomes to trade up, period. They aren't going to hold onto it out of spite. 

[CPcavedweller]

33 minutes ago, Seltzer said:

This is insanity to manage a cap like this for a guy like Carr that has never even won a playoff game.  The Saints are structuring things like they signed Mahomes to a loaded roster ready to win a SB.

Seriously, they have to restructure everyone else possible over the next 2 years just and have Carr's salary artificially low the first 3 years just to make this work.

Then, in the 4th year of this deal (!!) when he may not even be on the roster, will be when the massive cap hits start.

I'm sorry, the Panthers have made plenty of bad contract/ salary cap management decisions, but nothing to this level.

No Saints fan in the world with a triple digit IQ could honestly look at this situation objectively long-term and think this is a good plan.  This is not salary cap wizardry.  This is doubling down on Sean Payton's bad decisions (which he bolted over) and making it even worse for the next coach.

Dennis Allen may have bought himself some job security over this b/c no coach in their right mind is going to want to clean up this debacle.

Carr is a 4 time Pro Bowler in 9 seasons. He was Top 10 with Jon Gruden. Then McDaniel's comes in and does what he did in Denver with Jay Cutler, absolutely nothing. 

So was Derek Carr the issue in Vegas or was it McDaniel's? Time will tell but I have a feeling that the Belicheck (sp?) only works if you're Bill. His primary assistants fail outside of New England because Bill is a much, much better NFL coach than any one is willing to give him credit for, despite SEVEN SUPER BOWL RINGS. He and Tom and symbiotic. It wasn't one or the other, it was both. Then you add Bill, Josh, and Matt and you have another symbiotic relationship. They all three work well together but take one away and what do you get?

I wouldn't be selling Carr short here, especially with the offense that they run and the receivers that they have. He is probably better than Brees was in the last three years of his career and that will present an issue for us. 

[Evil Hurney]

40 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Breer confirms...

 

Using this plus Rapsheets numbers puts Carr's cap hits around:

2023: $15M

2024: $15M

2025: $55M (likely a restructure or cut year)

2026: $65M

[joemac]

46 minutes ago, Seltzer said:

This is unprecedented in terms of a team kicking the salary cap can down the road. 

Even with all the restructuring/ maneuvering possible, the Saints are basically hemming themselves into a situation where the only players they will be able to afford over the next few years are basically to sign their draft picks (maybe) and league-minimum players.  

What happens if you are in a situation where you can't afford to get 53 players (I know only 51 count) under the salary cap?  Do you simply carry less players?  B/c that is a realistic issue if you look at their cap position over the next few years.  How does the NFL handle this from both a competitive and safety perspective?  I can definitely see the NFL changing the rules regarding how salaries are structured if/when the Saints get in that position.  

It will be interesting to see over the next few years how they even achieve cap compliance.  Regardless of what homer Saints fans want to believe, their cap guy hasn't found some magic formula that no one else knows about.

There has just never been a team willing to double down for so many years in a row, especially with a roster that certainly doesn't look capable of actually competing for a championship.

Yes, Carr certainly makes the Saints better for next season.  But beyond that, I can see no objective take on how this is a good thing for the Saints long-term.

Bottom line, if we get the right young QB, we will be in a much, much better position than the Saints for at least the next 5 years (or more) as they dig out of this unprecedented mess. 

And again, regardless of what Saints fans want to believe, their cap is in an absolute mess.  Continuing to kick the can is not smart or innovative.  The Falcons and now the Bucs are smart enough to take their medicine now to compete long term.

The only positive I can honestly see is that Carr does help their chances to win the NFC South this year.  Beyond that, I'll eat my words in in retrospect this doesn't look like yet another massive mistake, and one that will finally cripple the Saints for a while.

Seems we say this about the Saints every season, and every season they manage to get under the cap and sign the guys the want to anyways...