Last 5 seasons

[SmokinwithWilly]

1 minute ago, mountainpantherfan2 said:

I completely get what you are wanting and why. But I think you also have to be smart about it. If you can draft a franchise QB, who cares about those future draft picks, right?  But what if the QB you draft ends up not being the franchise QB you hoped he would be?

There has only been 10 times a team has traded up and drafted a QB in the top 5 picks. None of those 10 have ever won a Super Bowl. Only 1 has ever played in a Super Bowl.  Only 2 played for the team that drafted them more than 5 seasons. 
 

From my armchair perspective, it’s much better to trade up to draft a QB that slides down in the draft rather than trade up into the top 5 for one.  The Bears in 2017 traded up to the 2nd overall pick to draft Mitchell Trubisky.  The Chiefs traded up to the 10th pick for Patrick Mahomes and the Texans traded up to the 12th pick for Deshaun Watson.  The fact that any team is willing to trade away a pick in the top 5 instead of using it on a QB should tell you all you need to know.

 

I agree we need to find our QB of the future. I’m just not sold trading into the top 5 is the solution. 
 

 

It's also a matter of trying to calculate where a player is rated by other teams. If Reid suspected that Mahomes was as special as he was, why only move to 10 instead of 1? Sometimes you win the gamble, sometimes you lose. It's all about maximizing value. 

[SCO96]

43 minutes ago, panther4life said:

Depth is at the bottom of totem pole until we find a QB and that’s precisely the point that I’m making here. We’ve got to do whatever it takes to land a franchise QB, otherwise nothing else matters. 

 

38 minutes ago, panther4life said:

Bottom line is this, whether you think we have done drafting well in the first or you think we haven’t there’s no harm in trading 2 additional first in an attempt to go land a franchise QB. If we mismanage our first round picks anyway, then who cares if we give a couple away to go get our number 1 choice at QB. Or if you think we’ve done excellent at drafting in the first and it still leaves us as a bottom 5 team, then you should also see the value in letting a couple go to get a top QB.

Why save 2 first and take the 3rd-4th option left at QB unless you think this is a super deep class where multiple QB’s have a shot at becoming the guy we need. I suppose that’s possible but I’m ready to hedge out bets and not settle, let’s go get the best!

It's already been shown that trading up to the top 5 has never produced a Super Bowl winner yet people have deluded themselves into believing that's the only way to get a franchise QB. You don't need to get the top QB in the draft to have success in the NFL. You need to find a QB who is coachable, poised in pressure situations, and physically/mentally talented enough to execute the plays in a team's offensive playbook, and doesn't turn the ball over.

If a guy can do that, it doesn't matter where you find him. It can be top 5, top 10, round 2, round 3, or round 7 for that matter. There's nothing wrong with taking the 3rd or 4th option on the board if he can ball out on the field and fits YOUR OFFENSIVE SCHEME. Lamar Jackson was last pick in round 1 and last of the 5 QB's taken in his draft class. The mentality on this board at times seems to indicate that he wouldn't been considered by some here because he wasn't drafted in the top 5 like Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold.

 

 

[panther4life]

8 minutes ago, SCO96 said:

 

It's already been shown that trading up to the top 5 has never produced a Super Bowl winner yet people have deluded themselves into believing that's the only way to get a franchise QB. You don't need to get the top QB in the draft to have success in the NFL. You need to find a QB who is coachable, poised in pressure situations, and physically/mentally talented enough to execute the plays in a team's offensive playbook, and doesn't turn the ball over.

If a guy can do that, it doesn't matter where you find him. It can be top 5, top 10, round 2, round 3, or round 7 for that matter. There's nothing wrong with taking the 3rd or 4th option on the board if he can ball out on the field and fits YOUR OFFENSIVE SCHEME. Lamar Jackson was last pick in round 1 and last of the 5 QB's taken in his draft class. The mentality on this board at times seems to indicate that he wouldn't been considered by some here because he wasn't drafted in the top 5 like Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold.

 

 

Nothing guarantees a superbowl win. But not having a top tier QB almost guarantees you won’t win one.

There has only been 11 QB’s to win a Super Bowl in the last 20 years. Only 5 in the last 9 years

Would that have stopped you from drafting all the ones that didn’t or at least trying to trade up for them? 

How many QB’s would you have to name before you could come up with a player at any other position that would put us closer to winning a Super Bowl? 

 

[thennek]

We all agree the Panthers need at least two QB’s for this season. But not everyone agrees on how to do this or which ones. The key for me is that the Panthers now have an actual NFL coaching staff that is going to be making these decisions vs a college coaching staff. I had very little confidence in the prior coaching staff to make any decisions let alone the QB.

Reich, Caldwell, McCown, Evero, Brown, Campen, Staley, Jefferson, Capers…etc have forgotten more about football then I will ever know. However or whoever they decide to be the next Panthers QB’s will be the right decision. These coaches are experts….it is going to be a fun offseason. 

[panther4life]

1 hour ago, Sgt Schultz said:

The case against trading a couple of first round picks (assuming that is beyond the swap of first round picks this year) is that your scouting staff and coaches don't see a guy who they believe is a franchise-changing QB in this draft. 

If you trade the picks anyway and they are right, you aren't making that deal again for a few years.  Nobody is going to want your package of seconds, thirds, and fourths.

So if you are going to do it, you had either better be right, have an abundance of picks to trade away, or be willing to trade some other valuable pieces if you miss.  And most of the times I have seen this done, it has been a swing and a miss or a foul tip.

It is a bad comparison because I think the 49ers roster is better than ours in almost every position.  But, make them our roster, then assume Lance is a flop, and you have no Garoppolo or Purdy in the room.  Maybe Corral is our Purdy, but we have absolutely no idea about that yet.  Those results are not pretty, and there is no avenue up for a couple of years barring somebody releasing a QB that can raise the results.

And I see that @mountainpantherfan2 just posted something similar.

Most teams picking number 1 overall don’t already have a QB they already believe in. Supposedly the Bears find themselves in that position.  
 

This is a rare opportunity we find ourselves in. I have my doubts that 3 first would even be enough to get us there. But I’m just stating it’s worth the risk to me.

We have played this low risk/ low reward game for far too long and I want to try a different strategy.

[Basbear]

God dam its painful...

[CPantherKing]

6 hours ago, stbugs said:

Honestly, you are way overrating the impact of our first round picks. DJ and Burns were solid because they were also not top 10 picks. The other 3 were all top 8 picks.

Brown is just OK. I know he played better this year but he was the 7th pick. You’d expect a higher impact with the 7th pick. That was higher than Aaron Donald was picked. Brown went one pick after Justin Herbert to show you the difference in true value that high in the draft.

Horn has played 16 out of 34 games and he didn’t play in the most crucial game we had all year. He could be great, but being healthy to end the season and compete for a playoff spot means something.

Iky’s been solid and lord willing will continue to get better and be a great pick but he’s played one year so he could only impact 1 year.

There is no Cam or Luke yet in our top 10 picks. That’s one thing you need to win and the other is hitting on other picks. There is only 1 other true impact pick I can see in the last 5 drafts and that’s Chinn. You cannot win when you can’t even get a second above average starter in 5 drafts after round 1. Bodies and starters because they are the only option don’t win games. An abundance of above average starters including QB wins games.

The way fans view these players, I would have thought the Panthers have drafted Justin Jefferson, Nick Bosa, Jeffery Simmons, Sauce Gardner, and Tristan Wirfs.

Drafting a 1st round pick who can't be a championship leader, a playmaker, go beyond a rookie contract, achieve playoff success, and contend for conference championships is a big miss. They should have been valued as a 3rd round player at the best.

[CPantherKing]

7 hours ago, panther4life said:

Nothing guarantees a superbowl win. But not having a top tier QB almost guarantees you won’t win one.

There has only been 11 QB’s to win a Super Bowl in the last 20 years. Only 5 in the last 9 years

Would that have stopped you from drafting all the ones that didn’t or at least trying to trade up for them? 

How many QB’s would you have to name before you could come up with a player at any other position that would put us closer to winning a Super Bowl? 

 

Incorrect. Not having a top college tier QB does not ALMOST GUARANTEE you won't win a SB.

There have been 11 QBs to win a SB in the last 20 seasons. You like your sample cutoff? Keeps Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, Kurt Warner, John Elway, and Brett Favre out of your sample. Wouldn't want to consider a 1st round QB that failed for the team that drafted him to become a journeyman, and a 1st round QB who took more than a decade to win a SB at the age of 37. Too far back? Even with this being left out, your theory does not hold for drafting 1st round QB to rebuild a team with a new HC.

Mahomes, Stafford, Brady, Foles, P.Manning, Wilson, Flacco, E.Manning, Rodgers, Brees, Roethlisberger.

So, you anchor your theory on 2 Mannings and 3 established coaches/franchises (Cowher/Maddox; Reid/Smith), (Sherman/Favre) inserting 1st round QBs in place of failed 1st round QBs and a HoF 38 year old 2nd round QB.

Panthers can't use a 1st round QB to insert like the Chiefs, Steelers, or Packers. There is no Manning available until 2027. Stafford failed for the team/coach that drafted him.

I see ONE 1st round QB on this list that has been drafted since 2010 and has won the SB for the team that drafted them. I see 2 QBs drafted outside the 1st round on this list. Mahomes was inserted into a team with a championship foundation, Wilson elevated a losing team in a rebuild to a SB contender, and Foles was signed to elevate a losing franchise during a rebuild to a SB championship.

The Panthers are in the Seahawks and Eagles rebuild mode. They are no where near the Chiefs contender mode.

If we just look at winning a SB with the team/coach that drafted them for a rebuilding team, then you have Flacco in 5 years and Wilson in 2 years as your only QBs. You can also include E.Manning in 4 years and Brady in 2 years if you allow teams who have been to the SB and have carry over players for a retooling under a new coach rather than a rebuild. 

What has happened to all the 1st round QBs over the past 15 seasons anchoring their teams rebuild? Doesn't seem to work too well using your own sample. What 1st round picks have actually helped build their team to the SB? It isn't QBs.

Also, over this same period of time the losing SB QBs are 6 1st rounders and 6 non-1st rounders.

Non-1st round QBs get to the SB in 4.2 seasons (6th round to undrafted; 3.5 seasons to SB; 2nd/3rd round QBs; 4.7 seasons to SB). 1st round QBs get to the SB in 5.4 seasons. (1st round QBs that were not drafted by a SB contending team; 6.2 seasons to SB)

Delhomme 3, Hasselbeck 7, Warner 2, Kaepernick 2, Garoppolo 6, Hurts 3, Brady 2, Brees 9, Wilson 2, Foles 6. (10 with 5 winners) NONE of these QBs were inserted into SB contending teams.

McNabb 6, Grossman 4, Newton 5, Ryan 9, Goff 3, Burrow 2, Roethlisberger 1, P.Manning 9, E.Manning 4, Rodgers 6, Flacco 5, Mahomes 3, Stafford 13. (13 with 7 winners) 5 of these QBs were inserted into SB contending teams. 

Considering 1st rounders get more franchise starting opportunities and several years/coaches to fail, looks even to me. No advantage to going with a 1st round QB. There has been no domination by 1st round QBs outside of getting coaches fired, racking up losing seasons, wasting draft capital and taking longer to win games/playoffs/SBs. Since 2001, 5 SBs have had no 1st round QB starting, 4 SBs have had 2 1st round starting QBs, and 13 SBs have been split. In the split SBs, 1st round QBs are 7-6. There have been 3 consecutive SBs without a 1st round QB. There has never been consecutive SBs this century with all 1st round QBs. You have to go back to the Cowboys-Bills in the early 90s for this RARE event. All 1st round QB SBs: 1972 - 1985-1986-1987 - 1992-1993 - 2000 - 2006 - 2010 - 2015 - 2021. All NO 1st round QB SBs: 1967 - 1976 - 1981-1982 - 1988 - 2001-2002-2003 - 2014 - 2017.

Am I overlooking something that would favor 1st round draft picks? I don't think so.

85% of all QBs regardless of round make it to the playoffs. All they need is a coach who believes in them enough to give them an opportunity. When it comes to QBs that win in the playoffs, 1st round QBs have a slight edge, but nothing significant enough to replace the draft capital needed for a 1st round DT, WR, or LB. The rare top combine QB with a pro sports pedigree is the only exception I would make.

68 1st round picks since 2000 have been SB champions over the last 10 SBs. Only 2 are QBs, and only 1 has won it for the the team that drafted the QB. 11 are LBs, 10 are WRs, and 9 are DTs. In the last 10 1st rounds, there have been 30 QBs, 28 DTs, 42 WRs, and 40 LBs taken.

QB: 2/30; 6.7% (Need 0) 4 of 10 SB teams had 1st round QBs.

DT: 9/28; 32.1% (Need 2) 8 of 10 SB teams had a 1st round DT. 3 of 10 SB teams had 2 1st round DTs.

WR: 10/42; 23.8% (Need 1) 9 of 10 SB teams had a 1st round WR. 1 of 10 teams had 2 1st round WRs.

LB: 11/40; 27.5% (Need 3) 8 of 10 SB teams have a 1st round LB. 6 of 10 teams have 2 1st round LBs.

SB teams have carried 6 to 10 1st round players on their roster with the average being 8. I'd want to see 8 to 9 1st round picks consisting of 2 DTs, 1 WR, 3 LBs, 2 BPA from WR/DE/CB. A reserve 1st round pick for that rare 1st round projected pedigree QB, or a complete pass and run blocking pro ready LT, which may only happen 1 to 2 times in a decade.

There is a long list of players I would want on the roster as a 1st rounder over all those QBs, and I can only have 6 to 9 of that long list. In the past 20 years, the only QBs I'd value over many of these players in the first round were Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, and Patrick Mahomes. I enjoyed watching Cam Newton, but I would not have picked him as the QB in that 2011 rebuild.

This 1st round QB myth kills entire franchises. It is the worst position lottery to play in the NFL, and you either know how to pick a QB like Bill Walsh (who never drafted a 1st round QB) or you hope you get really lucky when there is definitely a better use of 1st round picks for a championship team.

[mountainpantherfan2]

2 hours ago, CPantherKing said:

Incorrect. Not having a top college tier QB does not ALMOST GUARANTEE you won't win a SB.

There have been 11 QBs to win a SB in the last 20 seasons. You like your sample cutoff? Keeps Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, Kurt Warner, John Elway, and Brett Favre out of your sample. Wouldn't want to consider a 1st round QB that failed for the team that drafted him to become a journeyman, and a 1st round QB who took more than a decade to win a SB at the age of 37. Too far back? Even with this being left out, your theory does not hold for drafting 1st round QB to rebuild a team with a new HC.

Mahomes, Stafford, Brady, Foles, P.Manning, Wilson, Flacco, E.Manning, Rodgers, Brees, Roethlisberger.

So, you anchor your theory on 2 Mannings and 3 established coaches/franchises (Cowher/Maddox; Reid/Smith), (Sherman/Favre) inserting 1st round QBs in place of failed 1st round QBs and a HoF 38 year old 2nd round QB.

Panthers can't use a 1st round QB to insert like the Chiefs, Steelers, or Packers. There is no Manning available until 2027. Stafford failed for the team/coach that drafted him.

I see ONE 1st round QB on this list that has been drafted since 2010 and has won the SB for the team that drafted them. I see 2 QBs drafted outside the 1st round on this list. Mahomes was inserted into a team with a championship foundation, Wilson elevated a losing team in a rebuild to a SB contender, and Foles was signed to elevate a losing franchise during a rebuild to a SB championship.

The Panthers are in the Seahawks and Eagles rebuild mode. They are no where near the Chiefs contender mode.

If we just look at winning a SB with the team/coach that drafted them for a rebuilding team, then you have Flacco in 5 years and Wilson in 2 years as your only QBs. You can also include E.Manning in 4 years and Brady in 2 years if you allow teams who have been to the SB and have carry over players for a retooling under a new coach rather than a rebuild. 

What has happened to all the 1st round QBs over the past 15 seasons anchoring their teams rebuild? Doesn't seem to work too well using your own sample. What 1st round picks have actually helped build their team to the SB? It isn't QBs.

Also, over this same period of time the losing SB QBs are 6 1st rounders and 6 non-1st rounders.

Non-1st round QBs get to the SB in 4.2 seasons (6th round to undrafted; 3.5 seasons to SB; 2nd/3rd round QBs; 4.7 seasons to SB). 1st round QBs get to the SB in 5.4 seasons. (1st round QBs that were not drafted by a SB contending team; 6.2 seasons to SB)

Delhomme 3, Hasselbeck 7, Warner 2, Kaepernick 2, Garoppolo 6, Hurts 3, Brady 2, Brees 9, Wilson 2, Foles 6. (10 with 5 winners) NONE of these QBs were inserted into SB contending teams.

McNabb 6, Grossman 4, Newton 5, Ryan 9, Goff 3, Burrow 2, Roethlisberger 1, P.Manning 9, E.Manning 4, Rodgers 6, Flacco 5, Mahomes 3, Stafford 13. (13 with 7 winners) 5 of these QBs were inserted into SB contending teams. 

Considering 1st rounders get more franchise starting opportunities and several years/coaches to fail, looks even to me. No advantage to going with a 1st round QB. There has been no domination by 1st round QBs outside of getting coaches fired, racking up losing seasons, wasting draft capital and taking longer to win games/playoffs/SBs. Since 2001, 5 SBs have had no 1st round QB starting, 4 SBs have had 2 1st round starting QBs, and 13 SBs have been split. In the split SBs, 1st round QBs are 7-6. There have been 3 consecutive SBs without a 1st round QB. There has never been consecutive SBs this century with all 1st round QBs. You have to go back to the Cowboys-Bills in the early 90s for this RARE event. All 1st round QB SBs: 1972 - 1985-1986-1987 - 1992-1993 - 2000 - 2006 - 2010 - 2015 - 2021. All NO 1st round QB SBs: 1967 - 1976 - 1981-1982 - 1988 - 2001-2002-2003 - 2014 - 2017.

Am I overlooking something that would favor 1st round draft picks? I don't think so.

85% of all QBs regardless of round make it to the playoffs. All they need is a coach who believes in them enough to give them an opportunity. When it comes to QBs that win in the playoffs, 1st round QBs have a slight edge, but nothing significant enough to replace the draft capital needed for a 1st round DT, WR, or LB. The rare top combine QB with a pro sports pedigree is the only exception I would make.

68 1st round picks since 2000 have been SB champions over the last 10 SBs. Only 2 are QBs, and only 1 has won it for the the team that drafted the QB. 11 are LBs, 10 are WRs, and 9 are DTs. In the last 10 1st rounds, there have been 30 QBs, 28 DTs, 42 WRs, and 40 LBs taken.

QB: 2/30; 6.7% (Need 0) 4 of 10 SB teams had 1st round QBs.

DT: 9/28; 32.1% (Need 2) 8 of 10 SB teams had a 1st round DT. 3 of 10 SB teams had 2 1st round DTs.

WR: 10/42; 23.8% (Need 1) 9 of 10 SB teams had a 1st round WR. 1 of 10 teams had 2 1st round WRs.

LB: 11/40; 27.5% (Need 3) 8 of 10 SB teams have a 1st round LB. 6 of 10 teams have 2 1st round LBs.

SB teams have carried 6 to 10 1st round players on their roster with the average being 8. I'd want to see 8 to 9 1st round picks consisting of 2 DTs, 1 WR, 3 LBs, 2 BPA from WR/DE/CB. A reserve 1st round pick for that rare 1st round projected pedigree QB, or a complete pass and run blocking pro ready LT, which may only happen 1 to 2 times in a decade.

There is a long list of players I would want on the roster as a 1st rounder over all those QBs, and I can only have 6 to 9 of that long list. In the past 20 years, the only QBs I'd value over many of these players in the first round were Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, and Patrick Mahomes. I enjoyed watching Cam Newton, but I would not have picked him as the QB in that 2011 rebuild.

This 1st round QB myth kills entire franchises. It is the worst position lottery to play in the NFL, and you either know how to pick a QB like Bill Walsh (who never drafted a 1st round QB) or you hope you get really lucky when there is definitely a better use of 1st round picks for a championship team.

Legit the best write up I’ve seen on the QB search.  Amazing job!!! 

[mountainpantherfan2]

The more I look at QB history especially over the last 20 years I feel like signing Jacoby Brissett and drafting Tanner McKee in the 2nd/3rd might be the way this coaching staff and front office goes. 

[panther4life]

@CPantherKing I appreciate all the time you put into that post but in reality there’s no simple formula or statistical breakdown that will provide you a blueprint in the NFL. Things change quickly so fast.

1 thing is certain in my mind and that’s a Franchise QB is the best way to have a winning team that at least has a chance to be in the Super Bowl. Teams consistently invest heavy in that position whether it be trading draft picks, drafting QB’s high or paying them the largest % of the cap. With only a 3% chance of any given team winning the Super Bowl each year the odds are not in anyone’s favor. However having an elite QB certainly hedges your bets. 

Pats won 6 with Brady and to prove its not just the team built around him he went and won another one with the Bucs.

Peyton Manning is the reason the colts won a superbowl recently and same for the Broncos.

Mahomes is the primary reason the Chiefs have won 2 lately.

Joe Burrow has been the main reason the Bengals have been knocking on the door

Bills are getting closer too and it’s mostly because of Josh Allen

Jalen Hurts was the driving force behind the Eagles getting there this year.

While you can always find outliers, in the current structure of the NFL no 1 position or even a combination of 3 others is more important than the QB position.

It really makes no difference to me on how you obtain the QB but im personally more comfortable trading up to 3 first for the right guy. Would I prefer we give up nothing and land the guy as a day 3 pick. SURE but that’s not a route I want to sit around and hope pray works out for us.

[stan786]

2 hours ago, CPantherKing said:

Incorrect. Not having a top college tier QB does not ALMOST GUARANTEE you won't win a SB.

There have been 11 QBs to win a SB in the last 20 seasons. You like your sample cutoff? Keeps Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, Kurt Warner, John Elway, and Brett Favre out of your sample. Wouldn't want to consider a 1st round QB that failed for the team that drafted him to become a journeyman, and a 1st round QB who took more than a decade to win a SB at the age of 37. Too far back? Even with this being left out, your theory does not hold for drafting 1st round QB to rebuild a team with a new HC.

Mahomes, Stafford, Brady, Foles, P.Manning, Wilson, Flacco, E.Manning, Rodgers, Brees, Roethlisberger.

So, you anchor your theory on 2 Mannings and 3 established coaches/franchises (Cowher/Maddox; Reid/Smith), (Sherman/Favre) inserting 1st round QBs in place of failed 1st round QBs and a HoF 38 year old 2nd round QB.

Panthers can't use a 1st round QB to insert like the Chiefs, Steelers, or Packers. There is no Manning available until 2027. Stafford failed for the team/coach that drafted him.

I see ONE 1st round QB on this list that has been drafted since 2010 and has won the SB for the team that drafted them. I see 2 QBs drafted outside the 1st round on this list. Mahomes was inserted into a team with a championship foundation, Wilson elevated a losing team in a rebuild to a SB contender, and Foles was signed to elevate a losing franchise during a rebuild to a SB championship.

The Panthers are in the Seahawks and Eagles rebuild mode. They are no where near the Chiefs contender mode.

If we just look at winning a SB with the team/coach that drafted them for a rebuilding team, then you have Flacco in 5 years and Wilson in 2 years as your only QBs. You can also include E.Manning in 4 years and Brady in 2 years if you allow teams who have been to the SB and have carry over players for a retooling under a new coach rather than a rebuild. 

What has happened to all the 1st round QBs over the past 15 seasons anchoring their teams rebuild? Doesn't seem to work too well using your own sample. What 1st round picks have actually helped build their team to the SB? It isn't QBs.

Also, over this same period of time the losing SB QBs are 6 1st rounders and 6 non-1st rounders.

Non-1st round QBs get to the SB in 4.2 seasons (6th round to undrafted; 3.5 seasons to SB; 2nd/3rd round QBs; 4.7 seasons to SB). 1st round QBs get to the SB in 5.4 seasons. (1st round QBs that were not drafted by a SB contending team; 6.2 seasons to SB)

Delhomme 3, Hasselbeck 7, Warner 2, Kaepernick 2, Garoppolo 6, Hurts 3, Brady 2, Brees 9, Wilson 2, Foles 6. (10 with 5 winners) NONE of these QBs were inserted into SB contending teams.

McNabb 6, Grossman 4, Newton 5, Ryan 9, Goff 3, Burrow 2, Roethlisberger 1, P.Manning 9, E.Manning 4, Rodgers 6, Flacco 5, Mahomes 3, Stafford 13. (13 with 7 winners) 5 of these QBs were inserted into SB contending teams. 

Considering 1st rounders get more franchise starting opportunities and several years/coaches to fail, looks even to me. No advantage to going with a 1st round QB. There has been no domination by 1st round QBs outside of getting coaches fired, racking up losing seasons, wasting draft capital and taking longer to win games/playoffs/SBs. Since 2001, 5 SBs have had no 1st round QB starting, 4 SBs have had 2 1st round starting QBs, and 13 SBs have been split. In the split SBs, 1st round QBs are 7-6. There have been 3 consecutive SBs without a 1st round QB. There has never been consecutive SBs this century with all 1st round QBs. You have to go back to the Cowboys-Bills in the early 90s for this RARE event. All 1st round QB SBs: 1972 - 1985-1986-1987 - 1992-1993 - 2000 - 2006 - 2010 - 2015 - 2021. All NO 1st round QB SBs: 1967 - 1976 - 1981-1982 - 1988 - 2001-2002-2003 - 2014 - 2017.

Am I overlooking something that would favor 1st round draft picks? I don't think so.

85% of all QBs regardless of round make it to the playoffs. All they need is a coach who believes in them enough to give them an opportunity. When it comes to QBs that win in the playoffs, 1st round QBs have a slight edge, but nothing significant enough to replace the draft capital needed for a 1st round DT, WR, or LB. The rare top combine QB with a pro sports pedigree is the only exception I would make.

68 1st round picks since 2000 have been SB champions over the last 10 SBs. Only 2 are QBs, and only 1 has won it for the the team that drafted the QB. 11 are LBs, 10 are WRs, and 9 are DTs. In the last 10 1st rounds, there have been 30 QBs, 28 DTs, 42 WRs, and 40 LBs taken.

QB: 2/30; 6.7% (Need 0) 4 of 10 SB teams had 1st round QBs.

DT: 9/28; 32.1% (Need 2) 8 of 10 SB teams had a 1st round DT. 3 of 10 SB teams had 2 1st round DTs.

WR: 10/42; 23.8% (Need 1) 9 of 10 SB teams had a 1st round WR. 1 of 10 teams had 2 1st round WRs.

LB: 11/40; 27.5% (Need 3) 8 of 10 SB teams have a 1st round LB. 6 of 10 teams have 2 1st round LBs.

SB teams have carried 6 to 10 1st round players on their roster with the average being 8. I'd want to see 8 to 9 1st round picks consisting of 2 DTs, 1 WR, 3 LBs, 2 BPA from WR/DE/CB. A reserve 1st round pick for that rare 1st round projected pedigree QB, or a complete pass and run blocking pro ready LT, which may only happen 1 to 2 times in a decade.

There is a long list of players I would want on the roster as a 1st rounder over all those QBs, and I can only have 6 to 9 of that long list. In the past 20 years, the only QBs I'd value over many of these players in the first round were Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, and Patrick Mahomes. I enjoyed watching Cam Newton, but I would not have picked him as the QB in that 2011 rebuild.

This 1st round QB myth kills entire franchises. It is the worst position lottery to play in the NFL, and you either know how to pick a QB like Bill Walsh (who never drafted a 1st round QB) or you hope you get really lucky when there is definitely a better use of 1st round picks for a championship team.

I'd say the one thing this ignores is how many QBs are in the sample of Non First Round QBs vs First Round QBs in the last 20 years there have been 64 first round QBs and 194 non first round QBS.

So in the last 20 years 7/11 QBs to win a Super Bowl were first round QBs thats what 63% of QBs

Where just 25% of QBs drafted in the last 20 years were first round QBs in the entire QB population.

So 25% of the QB population makes up 63% of Super Bowl wins.

Even the last ten years 3 QBS drafted in the first round won a Super Bowl, 3 QBs not drafted in the first round won the super bowl.

While both methods are very very hard to find a QB that can win a Super Bowl, first round QBs win Super Bowls at a SIGNIFICANTLY higher rate compared to the population than rounds 2-7 and any other specific round. Now in terms of past performance and winning a Super Bowl for a new team there are definitely arguments to be made, but there are so many factors at play its hard to really drill down the data on what works for different teams. It is possible to build a team a number of ways and win a Super Bowl for sure.


 

[panther4life]

3 minutes ago, stan786 said:

I'd say the one thing this ignores is how many QBs are in the sample of Non First Round QBs vs First Round QBs in the last 20 years there have been 64 first round QBs and 194 non first round QBS.

So in the last 20 years 7/11 QBs to win a Super Bowl were first round QBs thats what 63% of QBs

Where just 25% of QBs drafted in the last 20 years were first round QBs in the entire QB population.

So 25% of the QB population makes up 63% of Super Bowl wins.

Even the last ten years 3 QBS drafted in the first round won a Super Bowl, 3 QBs not drafted in the first round won the super bowl.

While both methods are very very hard to find a QB that can win a Super Bowl, first round QBs win Super Bowls at a SIGNIFICANTLY higher rate compared to the population than rounds 2-7 and any other specific round. Now in terms of past performance and winning a Super Bowl for a new team there are definitely arguments to be made, but there are so many factors at play its hard to really drill down the data on what works for different teams. It is possible to build a team a number of ways and win a Super Bowl for sure.


 

Again I don’t care how we find the QB! Point is you need find one who can get us to the next level. I am also saying I’m comfortable giving up 3 1st round picks to get that guy. If the 9 pick or later would land us an equivalent to Mahomes,Burrow, Allen or Hurts type of QB then fine. Or if you want to go further back in history I’ll take a Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning or Rothelisberger too!

 

But I’m not so stubborn and bullish on the value of those picks that I wouldn’t trade 3 1st to get that type of QB. I also don’t see a quicker way than moving up for Young or Stroud to get us there, therefore that’s why I’m willing to risk it. 
 

[stan786]

1 minute ago, panther4life said:

Again I don’t care how we find the QB! Point is you need find one who can get us to the next level. I am also saying I’m comfortable giving up 3 1st round picks to get that guy. If the 9 pick or later would land us an equivalent to Mahomes,Burrow, Allen or Hurts type of QB then fine. Or if you want to go further back in history I’ll take a Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning or Rothelisberger too!

 

But I’m not so stubborn and bullish on the value of those picks that I wouldn’t trade 3 1st to get that type of QB. I also don’t see a quicker way than moving up for Young or Stroud to get us there, therefore that’s why I’m willing to risk it. 
 

Oh I agree, I dont think there is a perfect way to find a guy to get you to the Super Bowl, if we feel we need to trade up to get a guy our Front Office believes in I say do it. Reich and Rhule did the whole be patient and develop late round guys/free agents in Indy/Carolina thing and got canned because it didnt work, plenty of coaches have swung at first round QBs and gotten fired because of it. Everything is going to be a toss up.

My one stance is you should always be taking swings on QBs until you find one that can get you a Super Bowl, I commend the Eagles for taking Hurts in the second and eating the criticism while they had Wentz on his rookie deal. You keep looking no matter the situation until you know you have one for a fact.