QB Hype in February vs. Where they were actually drafted

[Ricky Spanish]

Someone on Reddit did the research:

https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/117dhky/qb_hype_in_february_vs_results_in_april/

2010:

• Sam Bradford was mocked at 26th overall in February.... Went 1st overall in April

^{Source: Bucky Brooks Mock 2.0 (Feb 10'})

2011:

• Blaine Gabbert was mocked at 7th overall in February.... Went 10th overall in April
• Jake Locker was mocked at 10th overall in February.... Went 8th overall in April
• Cam Newton was mocked at 12th overall in February... Went 1st overall in April

^{Source: Bleacher Report Mock (Feb 11'})

2012:

• Andrew Luck was mocked at 1st overall in February.... Went 1st overall in April
• Rober Griffin was mocked at 3rd overall in February.... Went 2nd overall in April
• Ryan Tannehill was mocked at 4th overall in February... Went 8th overall in April
• Brandon Weeden was not mocked in the 1st round in February.... Went 22nd overall in April

^{Source: sb nation mock (Feb 12'})

2013:

• Geno Smith was mocked at 8th overall in February.... Went 39th overall in April

^{Source: USA Today mock (Feb 13'})

2014:

• Teddy Bridgewater was mocked at 1st overall in February.... Went 32nd overall in April
• Johnny Manziel was mocked at 4th overall in February.... Went 22nd overall in April
• Blake Bortles was mocked at 8th overall in February.... Went 3rd overall in April

^{Source: SI mock 5.0 (Feb 14'})

2015:

• Marcus Mariota was mocked at 1st overall in February.... Went 2nd overall in April
• Jameis Winston was mocked at 6th overall in February.... Went 1st overall in April

^{Source: SI mock 4.0 (Feb 15'})

2016:

• Paxton Lynch was mocked at 2nd overall in February.... Went 26th overall in April
• Jared Goff was mocked at 7th overall in February.... Went 1st overall in April
• Carson Wentz was mocked at 15th overall in February.... Went 2nd overall in April

^{Source: SI mock (Feb 16'})

2017:

• Deshaun Watson was mocked at 2nd overall in February.... Went 12th overall in April
• DeShone Kizer was mocked at 6th overall in February.... Went 52nd overall in April
• Mitch Trubisky was mocked at 10th overall in February.... Went 2nd overall in April
• Patrick Mahomes was mocked at 25th overall in February.... Went 10th overall in April

^{Source: USA Today mock (Feb 17'})

2018:

• Sam Darnold was mocked at 1st overall in February.... Went 3rd overall in April
• Josh Rosen was mocked at 2nd overall in February.... Went 10th overall in April
• Baker Mayfield was mocked at 5th overall in February.... Went 1st overall in April
• Josh Allen was mocked at 11th overall in February..... Went 7th overall in April
• Lamar Jackson was mocked at 22nd overall in February.... Went 32nd overall in April

^{Source: CBS Sports mock (Feb 18'})

2019:

• Dwayne Haskins was mocked at 6th overall in February.... Went 15th overall in April
• Kyler Murray was mocked at 7th overall in February.... Went 1st overall in April
• Drew Lock was mocked at 13th overall in February.... Went 42nd overall in April
• Daniel Jones was mocked at 15th overall in February.... Went 6th overall in April

^{Source: NFL mock 2.0 (Feb 19'})

2020:

• Joe Burrow was mocked at 1st overall in February.... Went 1st overall in April
• Tua Tagovailoa was mocked at 3rd overall in February.... Went 5th overall in April
• Justin Herbert was mocked at 4th overall in February.... Went 6th overall in April
• Jacob Eason was mocked at 13th overall in February.... Went 122nd overall in April
• Jordan Love was mocked at 23rd overall in February.... Went 26th overall in April

^{Source: NFL Mock 2.0 (Feb 20'})

2021:

• Trevor Lawrence was mocked at 1st overall in February.... Went 1st overall in April
• Zach Wilson was mocked at 2nd overall in February.... Went 2nd overall in April
• Justin Fields was mocked at 4th overall in February.... Went 11th overall in April
• Trey Lance was mocked at 8th overall in February.... Went 3rd overall in April
• Mac Jones was mocked at 28th overall in February.... Went 15th overall in April

^{Source: NFL Mock 2.0 (Feb 21'})

2022:

• Malik Willis was mocked at 6th overall in February.... Went 86th overall in April
• Kenny Pickett was mocked at 11th overall in February.... Went 20th overall in April
• Matt Corral was mocked at 18th overall in February.... Went 94th overall in April

^{Source: USA Today Mock (Feb 22'})

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

2023:

Bryce Young is mocked at 2nd overall in February....
CJ Stroud is mocked at 4th overall in February....
Will Levis is mocked at 7th overall in February....
Anthony Richardson is mocked at 9th overall in February....

Source: CBS Mock (Feb 23')

 

Cool post with some good research. Really shows how much of a crapshoot the draft predicting is at this point in time. 

Don't be surprised to see Levis or Stroud taken #1 overall. 

 

 

[Jon Snow]

I'm curious to know the order they ranked against each other verse the order they were selected.  That may tell you how accurate the qb rankings are more than where they were selected in the draft. The mock drafts are never right.

[PNW_PantherMan]

I would not be surprised to see Stroud go 1st overall.  He seems like the best prospect in this class.

[travisura]

Seems that every year the first 10 picks are always predicted to be QB heavy. Sometimes they're right, sometimes they're wrong, but it does seem that even when there are several QBs taken in the first round, they're, on average, not taken as highly as they were mocked.

[stan786]

I think the prevailing opinion Stroud and Young are automatically gone by pick 3 is a little over stated on this forum. This data helps prove that out a little bit. I think people are going to be surprised how high Levis ends up going. Will be an interesting draft season to watch. Levis and Richardson have all the upside in shorts and tshirts as we go through pro days and testing. Young's height is going to turn off a number of teams I imagine.

[TJKJ23xx]

Jacob Eason had a crazy drop off. I wonder what happened there. 

[Wolfcop]

Man, there are a lot of bad QBs (most) on that list. 

 

A list like that could scare a team into going for Derrick Carr. At least you know you are getting a decent QB, far from a given in the 1st round, no matter where they are drafted. 

Edited February 20, 2023 by Wolfcop

[Bear Hands]

2 minutes ago, TJKJ23xx said:

Jacob Eason had a crazy drop off. I wonder what happened there. 

These aren't consensus, the research is just using one mock each year from different sources.  All it takes was the mock writer to be an Eason stan.  Eason was a 2nd-3rd, with only some claiming he was a first because of his size+arm.  

I'd like to see more of a consensus mock research but I doubt many have the time to figure that out ha.  

Last year though, if you search for as many mocks as you can find, that was a true outlier with how off they were.  

 

 

[Bear Hands]

11 minutes ago, Wolfcop said:

Man, there are a lot of bad QBs (most) on that list. 

 

A list like that could scare a team into going for Derrick Carr. At least you know you are getting a decent QB, far from a given in the 1st round, no matter where they are drafted. 

Just look overall QB draft history since 2013.  It's just not pretty.

During the 2013-2019 6 year stretch, you basically have Allen, Mahomes & Lamar as the only runaway hits. 

Carr, Goff, Jimmy G, Kyler & D Jones are still kicking, but are no means high bar/success models.  That right there is where the NFC QB drought stems from.  Then, all AFC teams swarmed the top QBs in recent years.  

Last year's may rival 2013 when all is said and done.  

https://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/qb

Edited February 20, 2023 by Bear Hands

[rayzor]

Jimmy Clausen would have been a fun one to look at except we were the dummies that finally drafted him.

Brady Quinn was a fun one too, but I legit felt bad for him because the had a camera on him the whole time.

 

[top dawg]

I know that hindsight is 20:20, but I had to go back and see who we picked after looking at a few of these QBs...

Our poo is like Murphy's law though; they probably would've never worked out as Panthers.

Edited February 21, 2023 by top dawg

[FugginPoo]

Also depends on needs of teams drafting early

[GOAT]

I'll take a stab,

Bryce Young is mocked at 2nd overall in February....Goes 5th overall.
CJ Stroud is mocked at 4th overall in February....Goes 1st overall.
Will Levis is mocked at 7th overall in February....Goes 2nd overall.
Anthony Richardson is mocked at 9th overall in February....Goes 2nd round.

[WUnderhill]

4 hours ago, Ricky Spanish said:

Someone on Reddit did the research:

https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/117dhky/qb_hype_in_february_vs_results_in_april/

2010:

• Sam Bradford was mocked at 26th overall in February.... Went 1st overall in April

^{Source: Bucky Brooks Mock 2.0 (Feb 10'})

2011:

• Blaine Gabbert was mocked at 7th overall in February.... Went 10th overall in April
• Jake Locker was mocked at 10th overall in February.... Went 8th overall in April
• Cam Newton was mocked at 12th overall in February... Went 1st overall in April

^{Source: Bleacher Report Mock (Feb 11'})

2012:

• Andrew Luck was mocked at 1st overall in February.... Went 1st overall in April
• Rober Griffin was mocked at 3rd overall in February.... Went 2nd overall in April
• Ryan Tannehill was mocked at 4th overall in February... Went 8th overall in April
• Brandon Weeden was not mocked in the 1st round in February.... Went 22nd overall in April

^{Source: sb nation mock (Feb 12'})

2013:

• Geno Smith was mocked at 8th overall in February.... Went 39th overall in April

^{Source: USA Today mock (Feb 13'})

2014:

• Teddy Bridgewater was mocked at 1st overall in February.... Went 32nd overall in April
• Johnny Manziel was mocked at 4th overall in February.... Went 22nd overall in April
• Blake Bortles was mocked at 8th overall in February.... Went 3rd overall in April

^{Source: SI mock 5.0 (Feb 14'})

2015:

• Marcus Mariota was mocked at 1st overall in February.... Went 2nd overall in April
• Jameis Winston was mocked at 6th overall in February.... Went 1st overall in April

^{Source: SI mock 4.0 (Feb 15'})

2016:

• Paxton Lynch was mocked at 2nd overall in February.... Went 26th overall in April
• Jared Goff was mocked at 7th overall in February.... Went 1st overall in April
• Carson Wentz was mocked at 15th overall in February.... Went 2nd overall in April

^{Source: SI mock (Feb 16'})

2017:

• Deshaun Watson was mocked at 2nd overall in February.... Went 12th overall in April
• DeShone Kizer was mocked at 6th overall in February.... Went 52nd overall in April
• Mitch Trubisky was mocked at 10th overall in February.... Went 2nd overall in April
• Patrick Mahomes was mocked at 25th overall in February.... Went 10th overall in April

^{Source: USA Today mock (Feb 17'})

2018:

• Sam Darnold was mocked at 1st overall in February.... Went 3rd overall in April
• Josh Rosen was mocked at 2nd overall in February.... Went 10th overall in April
• Baker Mayfield was mocked at 5th overall in February.... Went 1st overall in April
• Josh Allen was mocked at 11th overall in February..... Went 7th overall in April
• Lamar Jackson was mocked at 22nd overall in February.... Went 32nd overall in April

^{Source: CBS Sports mock (Feb 18'})

2019:

• Dwayne Haskins was mocked at 6th overall in February.... Went 15th overall in April
• Kyler Murray was mocked at 7th overall in February.... Went 1st overall in April
• Drew Lock was mocked at 13th overall in February.... Went 42nd overall in April
• Daniel Jones was mocked at 15th overall in February.... Went 6th overall in April

^{Source: NFL mock 2.0 (Feb 19'})

2020:

• Joe Burrow was mocked at 1st overall in February.... Went 1st overall in April
• Tua Tagovailoa was mocked at 3rd overall in February.... Went 5th overall in April
• Justin Herbert was mocked at 4th overall in February.... Went 6th overall in April
• Jacob Eason was mocked at 13th overall in February.... Went 122nd overall in April
• Jordan Love was mocked at 23rd overall in February.... Went 26th overall in April

^{Source: NFL Mock 2.0 (Feb 20'})

2021:

• Trevor Lawrence was mocked at 1st overall in February.... Went 1st overall in April
• Zach Wilson was mocked at 2nd overall in February.... Went 2nd overall in April
• Justin Fields was mocked at 4th overall in February.... Went 11th overall in April
• Trey Lance was mocked at 8th overall in February.... Went 3rd overall in April
• Mac Jones was mocked at 28th overall in February.... Went 15th overall in April

^{Source: NFL Mock 2.0 (Feb 21'})

2022:

• Malik Willis was mocked at 6th overall in February.... Went 86th overall in April
• Kenny Pickett was mocked at 11th overall in February.... Went 20th overall in April
• Matt Corral was mocked at 18th overall in February.... Went 94th overall in April

^{Source: USA Today Mock (Feb 22'})

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

2023:

Bryce Young is mocked at 2nd overall in February....
CJ Stroud is mocked at 4th overall in February....
Will Levis is mocked at 7th overall in February....
Anthony Richardson is mocked at 9th overall in February....

Source: CBS Mock (Feb 23')

 

Cool post with some good research. Really shows how much of a crapshoot the draft predicting is at this point in time. 

Don't be surprised to see Levis or Stroud taken #1 overall. 

 

 

Somebody just wasted a lot of time on that. It would have been much more helpful if they had used a single source for the mocks to compare how they performed over the years, then you could at least draw some sort of conclusion like maybe this one source tends to mock QBs a little high or low on average. As it stands, there’s just nothing you can conclude outside of the obvious that sometimes mocks are right and sometimes they’re wrong.