QB options sorted in preference tiers

[CPantherKing]

Drafting a 1st round QB in the first year is extremely risky for a coaching staff. Better luck having that 1st round QB win a SB with the next HC. Just as much success drafting a QB in later rounds by a 1st year HC with much less risk.

There have been 8 1st round QBs who have won the SB for the coach/team that drafted them. Only 4 of 35 SB winning coaches have drafted their QB in the 1st round in their first season.

Ewbank drafted Namath in his 3rd season. Noll drafted Bradshaw in his 2nd season. Reid drafted Mahomes in his 5th season, and Cowher drafted Roethlisberger in his 13th season. They all started building their team before inserting their QB.

Johnson, Coughlin, Ditka, and Harbaugh drafted their SB QBs in the 1st round from the start. Jimmy Johnson drafted 2 QBs with a #1 pick in 1989. Both #1 QBs battled it out for 2 seasons before Johnson decided to trade one of them to the Saints. McMahon and Flacco had short careers and 1 SB championship with their teams while Aikman and Manning went on to retire with their teams with multiple SB rings.

Now, the 2 most successful first year coach/QB combos came from non-first round picks. Bill Walsh with Joe Montana, and Bill Belichick with Tom Brady. Montana and Brady have Aikman and Manning beat.

It is difficult to have a HC succeed with a QB they drafted in their 1st season. Only 6 HCs have made it.  29 HCs succeeded by building their team and not focusing on the QB position in 1st round of the draft to build their SB champion. This also shows us again there is no difference in success between drafting a 1st round QB or a later round QB. If anything it favors later round QBs with Montana and Brady.

[BrisbanePanther]

This is not hard. Trade up (yes, even if it's 3 #1s). Take Stroud or Young and let's go.

Worst outcome--they're a bust and we also can't draft a 1st rounder in '24 and '25. So what? We've been bad for years. If missing 1sts in '24 and '25 (so two players) is enough for us go from bad to putrid, then we have structural franchise issues that those two picks wouldn't fix anyway. 

This also ignores that the draft isn't the only way to build a team.

Edited February 21, 2023 by BrisbanePanther

[BrisbanePanther]

15 hours ago, CamWhoaaCam said:

This!

 

My goodness what is with people and waiting next year for a QB. We won't be in position for the top QB's next year either.

 

If you want your QB you have to trade to get them. 

Especially when you consider that many who advocate for next are probably also anti-tankers.

[BrisbanePanther]

14 hours ago, tecc86 said:

Yeah and they're consistently either getting bumped from the playoffs or miss the playoffs entirely because they cant build a team around him because of his contract.

The most valuable thing in the NFL is a GREAT quarterback on a Rookie deal

Except yhe half-billion dollar man says hi--without Hill--and they'll be in the thick of it again next year barring injury.

[cmichd08]

If we can't draft Stroud or Young we should wait to a lower round to get a QB. Most of the next selection of QB's are going to need a year watching and learning anyways, so why waste a 1st round pick on them when a better prospect for the OLine or DLine will be available. I am not a fan of Sam or Matt, but wasn't Matt chosen to be the next QB last year. So you are casting him aside before he has shown us anything or worked with Frank. OLine and DLine should be first before drafting the next franchise QB. Sam wasn't great but he was better than the year before when the Oline sucked in 2021 season. We are transitioning from the 4-3 to 3-4 defensive this year. We need the type of defensive players that will do better in a 3-4 defense than what we have been selecting for the 4-3.