QB options sorted in preference tiers

[stan786]

Just now, WOW!! said:

I guess ppl think this team is going to tank for a better draft pick and every year get disappointed when they don’t..

I will admit it is kind of funny to think about Reich willingly throwing himself back into the situation that got him canned in Indy with having a team too good to actually get a QB in the draft.

[Bear Hands]

Maye and Ewers may not even declare with the whole NIL environment.  Could easily see that happening and next year is left with Caleb...then Pratt/Daniels/Penix.

So, if people are eyeing 2024 and REALLY think they'd pass on a QB this year, they might as well be talking Michael Pratt or Jayden Daniels.  Heck, even if Ewers and Maye stay on their trajectory, they will be more out of reach AND sought after than either Stroud or Young this year. 

Talk about selling the barn, imagine trading up from 16-20 to the top-5.  Yeah...

If we're picking top-5 next year, with this staff, the current NFC landscape, and the baseline roster we have, something will have gone tremendously wrong. 

 

[JawnyBlaze]

13 minutes ago, Wundrbread33 said:

Well I couldn’t disagree more. This is common thinking with QB’s. It’s understandable too. 
 

They are the star, they touch the ball every play, and they are the most watched player because of it. They take all the blame for losses. They get all the glory when things go well. 
 

But although they are the most important, much of the blame they catch and the glory they get is an illusion, because…

 

This is the king of team sports. It’s impossible to clearly evaluate a QB in a vacuum. And that’s just regarding on field performance. It’s even harder to predict how their off field lives will impact their career. 

It’s not impossible to pay attention to how he makes reads, what the ball looks like coming out of his hand, the trajectory of the pass, the touch, the anticipation, whether he hits guys in stride or makes them slow down, accuracy (true accuracy, not completion %), how he reacts to pressure.  It’s only impossible to evaluate because of the team aspect if you’re just looking at stats and wins, which I’ve never condoned.  I’ve made the “it’s a team sport” argument countless times when people try to argue for or against a QB based on wins.  

Much of it is making sure they have enough arm strength to make NFL throws, how accurate are they in a clean pocket/under pressure/on the move. Do they have mobility if you value it. Do they show discipline and leadership. 

Other than the last sentence, these things can be seen by actually watching full games/every play cut ups.

Then you get one and try to surround them with the coaching/pieces to help them succeed.  
 

And then they still could suck. Happens all the time. 

Yep, which is why I’m not saying he is a can’t miss prospect or bust proof, but since everything you can observe by watching him play is so great, he’s as low risk a prospect as there’s been in a long time.  Of course he could see them dollars and pull a Jamarcus Russell, he could have a career ending injury, he could simply miss home and get depressed. Lots of completely unforeseeable things could happen but that‘a the risk you take with any player. Doesn’t mean it’s not worth trading a bunch to go get a guy that has the potential to make a monumental impact like Stroud. 

 

[tecc86]

28 minutes ago, vorbis said:

pro-ready Levis over toolsy and instinctive Stroud

"pro ready" levis who can't handle being blitzed

[tecc86]

1 hour ago, CamWhoaaCam said:

Im legit convinced people just don't like Lamar Jackson.

 

A 26 year old QB MVP candidate in the prime of his career and people suggesting Sam Darnold and Derek Carr is a better option than going after Lamar Jackson.

 

 

I love Jackson

I don't love Jackson for the 2 first round picks and 40 million/year contract we'll have to give him.

I'd rather just trade the picks and get a guy thats younger and has the potential to be as good as Jackson.

There's more nuance to football than just plugging in player A to spot A, they get paid, they get traded, teams have to give up compensation.

If we could just sign Jackson then sure, maybe, but having to give up atleast 2 first round picks for him AND signing him to a ridiculous contract is just too much when we still have holes to fill on this team.

Edited February 20, 2023 by tecc86

[tecc86]

1 minute ago, CamWhoaaCam said:

Rodgers make 50mil a year. This is nothing new franchise QB's get paid.

Yeah and they're consistently either getting bumped from the playoffs or miss the playoffs entirely because they cant build a team around him because of his contract.

The most valuable thing in the NFL is a GREAT quarterback on a Rookie deal

[Wundrbread33]

10 minutes ago, JawnyBlaze said:

 

I’m on mobile and this has become a lot of word salad. I agree with some thing you are saying, but the things I mentioned that you can evaluate specifically in the QB, are just base threshold stuff. Like bare minimum things you need your QB to do if the lights are on mentally. 
 

These things ensure that the limiting factor isn’t physical.

These things DO NOT mean they will be successful. Just that they should be considered. 
 

That’s what I meant by that just to clarify. 
 

Your opinion is that Stroud is a low risk prospect, very low risk it seems. 
 

My opinion is information is way too incomplete to say that confidently. His team is the best on Saturday. We haven’t seen nearly enough adversity/him being uncomfortable back there like he will be on Sundays.

He may be fine and there is a lot to like. There seems to be a strong indication that if he has the pocket and talent to throw to, he can perform in ideal situations. That’s a start.

 

I think where we differ, is the amount we are willing to risk to get him based on our opinion of his overall talent level. 
 

Im not crying at all if we go into the season with a vet/Stroud/Corral in that QB room. I might cry if we can’t add 1st round talent for the duration of his rookie contract though. 

[JawnyBlaze]

15 minutes ago, Wundrbread33 said:

I’m on mobile  

Lol me too. I almost didn’t bother with my last reply for the same reason. I’m fine with leaving it at agree to disagree heh 

[CPantherKing]

Drafting a 1st round QB in the first year is extremely risky for a coaching staff. Better luck having that 1st round QB win a SB with the next HC. Just as much success drafting a QB in later rounds by a 1st year HC with much less risk.

There have been 8 1st round QBs who have won the SB for the coach/team that drafted them. Only 4 of 35 SB winning coaches have drafted their QB in the 1st round in their first season.

Ewbank drafted Namath in his 3rd season. Noll drafted Bradshaw in his 2nd season. Reid drafted Mahomes in his 5th season, and Cowher drafted Roethlisberger in his 13th season. They all started building their team before inserting their QB.

Johnson, Coughlin, Ditka, and Harbaugh drafted their SB QBs in the 1st round from the start. Jimmy Johnson drafted 2 QBs with a #1 pick in 1989. Both #1 QBs battled it out for 2 seasons before Johnson decided to trade one of them to the Saints. McMahon and Flacco had short careers and 1 SB championship with their teams while Aikman and Manning went on to retire with their teams with multiple SB rings.

Now, the 2 most successful first year coach/QB combos came from non-first round picks. Bill Walsh with Joe Montana, and Bill Belichick with Tom Brady. Montana and Brady have Aikman and Manning beat.

It is difficult to have a HC succeed with a QB they drafted in their 1st season. Only 6 HCs have made it.  29 HCs succeeded by building their team and not focusing on the QB position in 1st round of the draft to build their SB champion. This also shows us again there is no difference in success between drafting a 1st round QB or a later round QB. If anything it favors later round QBs with Montana and Brady.

[BrisbanePanther]

This is not hard. Trade up (yes, even if it's 3 #1s). Take Stroud or Young and let's go.

Worst outcome--they're a bust and we also can't draft a 1st rounder in '24 and '25. So what? We've been bad for years. If missing 1sts in '24 and '25 (so two players) is enough for us go from bad to putrid, then we have structural franchise issues that those two picks wouldn't fix anyway. 

This also ignores that the draft isn't the only way to build a team.

Edited February 21, 2023 by BrisbanePanther

[BrisbanePanther]

15 hours ago, CamWhoaaCam said:

This!

 

My goodness what is with people and waiting next year for a QB. We won't be in position for the top QB's next year either.

 

If you want your QB you have to trade to get them. 

Especially when you consider that many who advocate for next are probably also anti-tankers.

[BrisbanePanther]

14 hours ago, tecc86 said:

Yeah and they're consistently either getting bumped from the playoffs or miss the playoffs entirely because they cant build a team around him because of his contract.

The most valuable thing in the NFL is a GREAT quarterback on a Rookie deal

Except yhe half-billion dollar man says hi--without Hill--and they'll be in the thick of it again next year barring injury.

[cmichd08]

If we can't draft Stroud or Young we should wait to a lower round to get a QB. Most of the next selection of QB's are going to need a year watching and learning anyways, so why waste a 1st round pick on them when a better prospect for the OLine or DLine will be available. I am not a fan of Sam or Matt, but wasn't Matt chosen to be the next QB last year. So you are casting him aside before he has shown us anything or worked with Frank. OLine and DLine should be first before drafting the next franchise QB. Sam wasn't great but he was better than the year before when the Oline sucked in 2021 season. We are transitioning from the 4-3 to 3-4 defensive this year. We need the type of defensive players that will do better in a 3-4 defense than what we have been selecting for the 4-3.