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Price to move into top 3 based on past trades.


panther4life
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3 hours ago, Khyber53 said:

You realize that by your own statement, grabbing those moves in the first round neither helped nor harmed them. 

But they did hurt the teams. Most of them have had changes of coaching since then (or are on the cusp of it). In each case, it was opportunities squandered. And in the 49ers case, it was just blind luck that the injury to Lance panned out so well, between Jimmy G and Purdy. 

Opportunity cost is a real, real thing. 

We shouldn't trade up, particularly when we are in a cap crunch like we are. We need to bring in multiple new guys on draft contracts to help us offset some really bad contracts and the lingering dead cap money from others. If anything, we should be willing to trade back and pick up more capital to spend less capital.

Trading up into the first four picks of the draft, by the actual choices made historically over the last 8-9 years is just a terrible decision. The results don't lie.

 

I understand that the odds aren’t in our favor based on history of trade ups. I’m just willing to take a gamble based on where we find ourselves and that I think Stroud or Young would succeed with the rest of this roster and coaching staff.

I know you hate the idea and would like to hear what you think we should do to address the QB position?

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2 hours ago, SCO96 said:

True. But they didn't win with they guy they traded up for. They ended up getting a QB through a trade who had never won a playoff game with his previous team, Matthew Stafford.

 

Agreed. In hindsight the same thing happened in 2018. Allen and Jackson should have been the top 2. Baker and Sam went ahead of Josh and Rosen went ahead of Lamar. It just goes to show that the top 2 guys picked aren't guaranteed to be the top 2 QB's in the class

Wentz didn't finish the regular season or play in the postseason. Peterson's brilliant coaching that year and a strong supporting cast allowed the Eagles to beat the might Patriots with a career journeyman/backup...Nick Foles. When Foles left town Wentz was unable to hold on the job and has been traded to two different teams. The Eagles made it back to the SB with a 2nd round draft choice.

Correct. However, they were able to go most of the season with Jimmy G (2nd round pick) and Brock Purdy (7th round) as their starters. Trey Lance has contributed to none of the success the 49ers have had for the past two season. He may blossom in time, but at the current time its' looking like they didn't need to trade away all of those picks to move up to select him.

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2021/6/18/22533745/looking-back-at-the-trades-that-landed-josh-allen-for-the-buffalo-bills-notes-nfl-draft

Check out the link above for the details of this trade. Buffalo ended up jumping from #12 to #7 with 2 trades. The first with the Bengals moved them from #21 to #12. The gave away their starting tackle and pick #185 and got pick #187 in return

Then they traded with Tampa and moved from #12 to #7 and parted with two picks in the 2nd round (#53 and #56) and got #255 in retuen

They didn't away multiple #1 draft choices in back to back years like people seem to be suggesting we should do. And, as I've brought up before, the Bills were a playoff team the season before they drafted Allen with Tyrod Taylor at QB. I love Allen play, but so far he has yet to make it to an AFC Conference title game.

Moving up to get QB's in the top 5 in recent years has not produced one QB who won a SB with the team that drafted him.

 

What’s your plan for QB and winning a SB?

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5 minutes ago, ncfan said:

There’s really no one outside of Maye and Williams in the class next year that even stick out the way Young and Stroud has been the last 2 years.  A bunch of unknowns.

Rattler is in this class, no? I was just confused.  

I'd say Ewers is on the top tier watchlist.  Pratt, Daniels, Ward & Penix are all on that Nix-tier watchlist.

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2 minutes ago, Bear Hands said:

Rattler is in this class, no? I was just confused.  

I'd say Ewers is on the top tier watchlist.  Pratt, Daniels, Ward & Penix are all on that Nix-tier watchlist.

Ewers is decent off the hype.  Had a lower completion pct than Levis and about the same TD/int ratio.

Ward maybe?  Bo Nix was was pretty much nothing until this year out in Oregon.  But to me,  he reminds me a ton of Mitch Trubisky.  Penix had a Good season, but again, a Massive injury history.

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2 minutes ago, ncfan said:

Ewers is decent off the hype.  Had a lower completion pct than Levis and about the same TD/int ratio.

Ward maybe?  Bo Nix was was pretty much nothing until this year out in Oregon.  But to me,  he reminds me a ton of Mitch Trubisky.  Penix had a Good season, but again, a Massive injury history.

I personally love how Jayden developed and am big on Pratt.  Daniels could've declared and gone ahead of Hooker and McKee this year.  But him running it back and showing out again could get him 1st round grades.  He really progressed as a passer, made huge strides.  

I also really enjoyed watching Ward play, but he has some stuff to work on.  Penix needs to have another stellar season to fully separate himself from the injuries/Indiana days.  

At the end of the day though, I agree none are really worth waiting for compared to this class with one of Levis/Young/Stroud likely in reach & considering Richardson's potential.      

 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, panther4life said:

What’s your plan for QB and winning a SB?

Since you asked, I'll go into fantasy GM mode.

Assuming we didn't sign a FA this offseason, here's what I'd do.

I'd interview the top 5-6 QB's and learn everything that I possibly could about them in terms strengths, weaknesses, mindset etc. 

I'd ask the coaches if they thought they could work with & groom a franchise QB with any of the guys besides Stroud or Young. If the OC, QB coach, and HC all said "No". I'd actually consider trading up if I didn't have to give up a #1 or #2 in 2025. 

If they said "there are two or three guys in this draft that we feel we can win with", I'd stay put at 9 and take a QB in round one. I'd use our two #2's and our #3 pick on Day two of the draft with the intention of coming away with three starters or at least 2 starters and 1 solid contributor. I'd use day 3 and 4 for depth picks and to possibly find some diamonds in the rough. I'd want the rookie behind center by midseason unless he was absolutely not ready to play. If he were ready I'd start him on week one.

Our division is weak. The goal would be to win the NFC South in 2023. I would not go into the season thinking we were a SB contender. Our cap clears up significantly in 2024. I'd go into the 2024 preseason with the thoughts of filling any remaining holes with FA's and strong 2024 draft with the intention of making to make a deep playoff run in 2024, definitely no later than 2025.

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