Price to move into top 3 based on past trades.

[heel31ok]

41 minutes ago, WOW!! said:

And you won’t be a championship team until you get the QB.. And waiting on the perfect situation isn’t a reality based plan either..

I know some of you don’t see this but reality is Wilks showed that competent Coaching made this team better and more of a viable thing then 1st though.. This team in reality with better coaching has enough talent not to be close to a top 10 pick in the predictable future..

Im sorry I don’t see a better opportunity then now to get your QB if you deemed any of these as your guy..

agree to disagree I like Levi’s and Richardson with this coaching staff okay.. But I love Stroud and Young with them more and don’t give a poo about picks in the next 2 years when I think the team will be better anyway..

False premise, as no one is waitng for the perfect situation.

[Tr3ach]

9 hours ago, frankw said:

If you believe in the prospect you are targeting make the move and shoot your shot. We can't keep being scared.

What if they dont 100% believe though?  Do you still trade up to take one just to take one?

[WOW!!]

17 minutes ago, heel31ok said:

False premise, as no one is waitng for the perfect situation.

Okay .. Being 1-15 and getting Cam happens a lot for us.. Sorry I forgot..

[WOW!!]

31 minutes ago, Tr3ach said:

What if they dont 100% believe though?  Do you still trade up to take one just to take one?

Fitt must believe in something because he has made a lot moves moving in that direction..

[ForJimmy]

39 minutes ago, Tr3ach said:

What if they dont 100% believe though?  Do you still trade up to take one just to take one?

I don’t think teams are ever 100% sold on a player. I’m just confident in our staff to make the right decision. They should be able to weigh how confident they are in a player vs the cost of acquiring that player. To answer your question though they shouldn’t trade up “just to take one.”

[LegioX]

See. If we just had keep sucking and not won some meaningless games we wouldn’t be in this position.

[Tr3ach]

9 hours ago, WOW!! said:

Fitt must believe in something because he has made a lot moves moving in that direction..

I hope so too.  I am totally fine if they really believe in one they want and its not just giving in to the pressure of needing to find a qb.  I just mean this place is going to explode if they dont make the move to trade up and take one but what if its because they dont actually believe in one?  Everyone is impatient with the fact we haven't taken one in the past couple years but now with hindsight 20/20 there havent been any really good qbs yet come out of those drafts.

[TLGPanthersFan]

2 hours ago, LegioX said:

See. If we just had keep sucking and not won some meaningless games we wouldn’t be in this position.

[Khyber53]

On 2/18/2023 at 3:57 PM, panther4life said:

Here's a recent look at the history of top 5 overall picks traded 

**There are trades where future 1st became top 5 picks but this is strictly regarding trades made to move up in a current draft. For example the Browns could have had Watson at 12 back in 2017, but traded down to 25 with the Texans and received 4th overall from the texans in the next draft. Kind of ironic considering they just paid 3 first rounders plus to get him years down the road.

First number 1 overall:

Last traded 2016, Titans to Rams, 

Titans received: 2016 picks: 15, 43, 45,76. 2017 1st(became 5th overall) and 2017 3rd (pick 100)

Rams received: 1st overall, 4th and 6th round pick

The last time number 1 overall was trade in 01 for Vick

2nd overall pick:

Last traded 2017, 49ers to Bears

Bears received 2nd overall pick

49ers received 3rd overall pick, 67, 111 and the bears 3rd in 2018

2016 the Eagles traded up from 8 to 2 with the browns

Eagles got 2nd overall pick, and a 2017 4th round pick

Browns got 8th overall pick, 77, 100 and 2017 1st round pick and 2018 2nd round pick

3rd overall pick: Last trade 2021, Dolphins to 49ers

49ers got 3rd overall

Dolphins got 12th overall, 1st and 3rd round picks in 2022, 1st in 2023

2018 the Jets traded from 6 to 3 with the Colts

Jets received 3rd overall

Colts received 6th overall, 37,49 and a 2nd round pick in 2019

4th overall pick: Last trade 2014 , Browns to Bills

Bills received 4th overall

Browns received 9th overall, 1st and 4th in the 2015 draft

5th overall pick: Last traded Jags to Bucs

Jags received 5th overall

Bucs received 7th overall and 101

These trades should serve as a good gauge for what it may take for us to move up to select a QB inside the top 1-3.

 

There's some very, very important information here that is missing. So, let me fill you in. Who got picked with those trade ups???

For the first example, the number 1 pick was used to get Jared Goff. Whew, not great.

For the second example, pick number two was for Mitch Trubisky. Roundly considered a massive bust.

For the third example, pick number two was for Carson Wentz. He couldn't outplay Taylor Heinicke. At all.

For the fourth example, pick number three was for Trey Lance. Injured, so incomplete, but will probably be carrying a clip board behind last pick in the same draft... who played very well

For the fifth example, pick number three went for Sam Darnold. Y'all know him.

For the sixth example, the  pick number four went to grab WR Sammy Watkins. He's been on six teams since he was drafted, the longest stint in Kansas City. Not worth the trade..

None of these guys were worth what was traded away for them. Keep that in mind when we look at the possibility of giving away a lot to move up in the draft.

[raleigh-panther]

On 2/18/2023 at 7:32 PM, csx said:

Why? It's not a particularly strong class of QBs

There are many times in need of a QB 

there are also teams that are good and will take a swing to improve the qb position. Reference kc moving up from nowhere to take Mahomes and the 49ers for Lance  

Its ridiculous for anyone to think teams outside of the top ten won’t try and move up

[panther4life]

2 hours ago, Khyber53 said:

There's some very, very important information here that is missing. So, let me fill you in. Who got picked with those trade ups???

For the first example, the number 1 pick was used to get Jared Goff. Whew, not great.

For the second example, pick number two was for Mitch Trubisky. Roundly considered a massive bust.

For the third example, pick number two was for Carson Wentz. He couldn't outplay Taylor Heinicke. At all.

For the fourth example, pick number three was for Trey Lance. Injured, so incomplete, but will probably be carrying a clip board behind last pick in the same draft... who played very well

For the fifth example, pick number three went for Sam Darnold. Y'all know him.

For the sixth example, the  pick number four went to grab WR Sammy Watkins. He's been on six teams since he was drafted, the longest stint in Kansas City. Not worth the trade..

None of these guys were worth what was traded away for them. Keep that in mind when we look at the possibility of giving away a lot to move up in the draft.

Example 1, Rams have still won a Super Bowl in spite of what they gave up to move up.

Example 2, the Bears picked the wrong QB. They should have taken Mahomes or Watson. They didn’t but were in position to do so.

Example 3, still won a Super Bowl and made it back again just last year.(Eagles).

Example 4, short of their QB room being depleted by Injuries sure could have been in the superbowl this year.(49ers)

Example 5, was actually the Bills who landed Josh Allen and we know they don’t regret it.

Aside from the Bears regardless of what those teams gave up all of them have been in Super Bowl contention, even with many of them missing on a QB. So not quite the devastating effects you might assume.

[Khyber53]

4 minutes ago, panther4life said:

Example 1, Rams have still won a Super Bowl in spite of what they gave up to move up.

Example 2, the Bears picked the wrong QB. They should have taken Mahomes or Watson. They didn’t but were in position to do so.

Example 3, still won a Super Bowl and made it back again just last year.(Eagles).

Example 4, short of their QB room being depleted by Injuries sure could have been in the superbowl this year.(49ers)

Example 5, was actually the Bills who landed Josh Allen and we know they don’t regret it.

Aside from the Bears regardless of what those teams gave up all of them have been in Super Bowl contention, even with many of them missing on a QB. So not quite the devastating effects you might assume.

You realize that by your own statement, grabbing those moves in the first round neither helped nor harmed them. 

But they did hurt the teams. Most of them have had changes of coaching since then (or are on the cusp of it). In each case, it was opportunities squandered. And in the 49ers case, it was just blind luck that the injury to Lance panned out so well, between Jimmy G and Purdy. 

Opportunity cost is a real, real thing. 

We shouldn't trade up, particularly when we are in a cap crunch like we are. We need to bring in multiple new guys on draft contracts to help us offset some really bad contracts and the lingering dead cap money from others. If anything, we should be willing to trade back and pick up more capital to spend less capital.

Trading up into the first four picks of the draft, by the actual choices made historically over the last 8-9 years is just a terrible decision. The results don't lie.

 

[SCO96]

44 minutes ago, panther4life said:

Example 1, Rams have still won a Super Bowl in spite of what they gave up to move up.

True. But they didn't win with they guy they traded up for. They ended up getting a QB through a trade who had never won a playoff game with his previous team, Matthew Stafford.

 

46 minutes ago, panther4life said:

Example 2, the Bears picked the wrong QB. They should have taken Mahomes or Watson. They didn’t but were in position to do so.

Agreed. In hindsight the same thing happened in 2018. Allen and Jackson should have been the top 2. Baker and Sam went ahead of Josh and Rosen went ahead of Lamar. It just goes to show that the top 2 guys picked aren't guaranteed to be the top 2 QB's in the class

50 minutes ago, panther4life said:

Example 3, still won a Super Bowl and made it back again just last year.(Eagles).

Wentz didn't finish the regular season or play in the postseason. Peterson's brilliant coaching that year and a strong supporting cast allowed the Eagles to beat the might Patriots with a career journeyman/backup...Nick Foles. When Foles left town Wentz was unable to hold on the job and has been traded to two different teams. The Eagles made it back to the SB with a 2nd round draft choice.

54 minutes ago, panther4life said:

Example 4, short of their QB room being depleted by Injuries sure could have been in the superbowl this year.(49ers)

Correct. However, they were able to go most of the season with Jimmy G (2nd round pick) and Brock Purdy (7th round) as their starters. Trey Lance has contributed to none of the success the 49ers have had for the past two season. He may blossom in time, but at the current time its' looking like they didn't need to trade away all of those picks to move up to select him.

1 hour ago, panther4life said:

Example 5, was actually the Bills who landed Josh Allen and we know they don’t regret it.

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2021/6/18/22533745/looking-back-at-the-trades-that-landed-josh-allen-for-the-buffalo-bills-notes-nfl-draft

Check out the link above for the details of this trade. Buffalo ended up jumping from #12 to #7 with 2 trades. The first with the Bengals moved them from #21 to #12. The gave away their starting tackle and pick #185 and got pick #187 in return

Then they traded with Tampa and moved from #12 to #7 and parted with two picks in the 2nd round (#53 and #56) and got #255 in retuen

They didn't away multiple #1 draft choices in back to back years like people seem to be suggesting we should do. And, as I've brought up before, the Bills were a playoff team the season before they drafted Allen with Tyrod Taylor at QB. I love Allen play, but so far he has yet to make it to an AFC Conference title game.

Moving up to get QB's in the top 5 in recent years has not produced one QB who won a SB with the team that drafted him.

 

[MHS831]

On 2/18/2023 at 5:23 PM, Davidson Deac II said:

The problem with that is if we want Stroud or Young, then moving up to 3 might not be enough.  If the Bears get a trade partner, then we might be out of luck.  

I imagine Indy has a guy in mind and will try to trade up with Chicago.  They are the only team that can probably afford to make that trade.

We need to see free agency