Carr Watch

[Leaky_Faucet]

Panthers really have two ideal options. A) is Derek Carr which as I said before is mainly from the front office but Brown and Reich are both interested in this possibility. B) Pairing a young QB with a Darnold-like player such as Sam or Andy Dalton, and this is more coaching staff driven. 
 

They really like Will Levis and he would be their option if the draft were today but keep in mind it is combine week, so this could change. They also like Stroud but there is not a lot of support from the front office to go up that high. 

[Mr. Scot]

2 minutes ago, stan786 said:

And I would say your are over selling it. Sorry as well man.

I got nothing to sell, just analyzing.

And as you can see looking back, I'm not the only one who looked at it this way.

[Mr. Scot]

2 minutes ago, Leaky_Faucet said:

Panthers really have two ideal options. A) is Derek Carr which as I said before is mainly from the front office but Brown and Reich are both interested in this possibility. B) Pairing a young QB with a Darnold-like player such as Sam or Andy Dalton, and this is more coaching staff driven. 
 

They really like Will Levis and he would be their option if the draft were today but keep in mind it is combine week, so this could change. They also like Stroud but there is not a lot of support from the front office to go up that high. 

Thanks, dude...or non-dude...

[stan786]

1 minute ago, Mr. Scot said:

I got nothing to sell, just analyzing.

And as you can see looking back, I'm not the only one who looked at it this way.

Same, just analyzing it.

Others also share my opinion. Its ok to disagree just having a conversation neither of us have to be "Right".

I am just stating based on past evidence and the current situation this should have been expected.

[Mr. Scot]

1 minute ago, stan786 said:

Same, just analyzing it.

Others also share my opinion. Its ok to disagree just having a conversation neither of us have to be "Right".

I am just stating based on past evidence and the current situation this should have been expected.

Yeah sorry, I disagree.

[stan786]

Just now, Mr. Scot said:

Yeah sorry, I disagree.

So lets agree to disagree, doesnt have to be a competition in who is more right lol.

[SpclKen]

1 hour ago, ECHornet said:

If Trubisky and Carr had the same amount of attempts rushing and passing per game, and we assume everything else remained the same, here’s what the stats say you could expect from both per game:

 

I am not trying to hop in the middle of anything, but I just had to say this is a very poor way to do player evaluations and comparisons. You are in imagination land with all the assumptions and expectations you are using to extrapolate these numbers. I don't want to just blast what you say with no constructive criticism so i will add a little bit of context as to why I personally think this is a horrible evaluation on your part.

You cannot add attempts and invent whole cloth new numbers for a player. There is a reason that some QBs throw for 30 attempts a game and others for 15. They have different skill sets and abilities and play within different schemes. Play callers and offenses are structured around players and are not just plug and play. You can't get "90% of production if he threw more" when a QB has a drastically different skill set and in very different offenses. The problem is that the coaches don't trust Trubisky to throw more because of his limitations.

Any numbers driven comparison HAS to be coupled with player evaluation. In this case Carr is a significantly better QB than Trubisky and you don't have to go further than how the league evaluates and what they have made in contract and opportunity over their respective careers.

I do think your strategy of paying for a low cost veteran instead of breaking the bank for Derrick Carr is a good one, but you don't need to invent numbers to "Prove" that is the best strategy. Just Say Carr would be overpaid for what he is and what he will command in the market and assigning that salary to that level of player would hurt the Carolina's ability to compete for a long time.

[Mr. Scot]

2 minutes ago, stan786 said:

So lets agree to disagree, doesnt have to be a competition in who is more right lol.

Nah...

But I am

[ECHornet]

10 minutes ago, SpclKen said:

I am not trying to hop in the middle of anything, but I just had to say this is a very poor way to do player evaluations and comparisons. You are in imagination land with all the assumptions and expectations you are using to extrapolate these numbers. I don't want to just blast what you say with no constructive criticism so i will add a little bit of context as to why I personally think this is a horrible evaluation on your part.

You cannot add attempts and invent whole cloth new numbers for a player. There is a reason that some QBs throw for 30 attempts a game and others for 15. They have different skill sets and abilities and play within different schemes. Play callers and offenses are structured around players and are not just plug and play. You can't get "90% of production if he threw more" when a QB has a drastically different skill set and in very different offenses. The problem is that the coaches don't trust Trubisky to throw more because of his limitations.

Any numbers driven comparison HAS to be coupled with player evaluation. In this case Carr is a significantly better QB than Trubisky and you don't have to go further than how the league evaluates and what they have made in contract and opportunity over their respective careers.

I do think your strategy of paying for a low cost veteran instead of breaking the bank for Derrick Carr is a good one, but you don't need to invent numbers to "Prove" that is the best strategy. Just Say Carr would be overpaid for what he is and what he will command in the market and assigning that salary to that level of player would hurt the Carolina's ability to compete for a long time.

Presenting the stats that way was an attempt to simplify and show that Trubisky is nearly as successful on his pass attempts as Carr. I stand by that. Clearly, some posters have shown an inability in looking at the raw stats as is without going to "total this, total that." 

Look at his per game stats. Carr's are not $30mil better. I hope no one would argue Trubisky has had a better supporting cast over that time.

Sure. Of course the type of offense, skillset, and coach's trust should factor in to player evals. At some point, production comes in to play.

Question for you....

Looking at those per game statistics, do you view Carr as far more productive than Trubisky per game?

Edited March 1, 2023 by ECHornet

[Jon Snow]

17 minutes ago, Leaky_Faucet said:

Panthers really have two ideal options. A) is Derek Carr which as I said before is mainly from the front office but Brown and Reich are both interested in this possibility. B) Pairing a young QB with a Darnold-like player such as Sam or Andy Dalton, and this is more coaching staff driven. 
 

They really like Will Levis and he would be their option if the draft were today but keep in mind it is combine week, so this could change. They also like Stroud but there is not a lot of support from the front office to go up that high. 

This has been my suspension as well.  There has been only two options that are a realistic possibility. Go with a vet because getting up to the 1st pick is a pipe dream or try to get Levis if he falls far enough or another rookie and pairing him with some like Darnold.  But I would be surprised if it is Darnold they sign to be the mentor. Although he wouldn't be a bad choice.

[Mr. Scot]

1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

This has been my suspension as well.  There has been only two options that are a realistic possibility. Go with a vet because getting up to the 1st pick is a pipe dream or try to get Levis if he falls far enough or another rookie and pairing him with some like Darnold.  But I would be surprised if it is Darnold they sign to be the mentor. Although he wouldn't be a bad choice.

The team liking Levis really shouldn't surprise anyone either, especially knowing the  connection he has to Thomas Brown through Liam Coen.

[SpclKen]

1 minute ago, ECHornet said:

Presenting the stats that way was an attempt to simplify and show that Trubisky is nearly as successful on his pass attempts as Carr. I stand by that. Clearly, some posters have shown an inability at looking at the raw stats as is without going to "total this, total that." 

Look at his per game stats. Carr's are not $30mil better. I hope no one would argue Trubisky has had a better supporting cast over that time.

Sure. Of course the type of offense, skillset, and coach's trust should factor in to player evals. At some point, production comes in to play.

Question for you....

Looking at those per game statistics, do you view Carr as far more productive than Trubisky per game?

So I am at a disadvantage because I have watched a total of maybe 6 Mitch Trubisky games between the Steelers and the Bears. I have watched maybe 25 games of Derek Carr. If I totally ignore the stats and go by my casual viewing of how they preformed on their respective teams, Derek Carr is a significantly better quarterback. He is given much more control of the offense and makes throws that Mitch does not. 

I know he played at NC as was taken with the 2nd pick in the draft and is already on his third team. Looking at the stats right now in career and I would say he has more upside because he is younger and was in some pretty abysmal offenses. Looking at the stats and success I would say Derek is more productive and a better player, which is why he will get significantly more money and opportunity to be a starting QB this year.

[ECHornet]

7 minutes ago, SpclKen said:

So I am at a disadvantage because I have watched a total of maybe 6 Mitch Trubisky games between the Steelers and the Bears. I have watched maybe 25 games of Derek Carr. If I totally ignore the stats and go by my casual viewing of how they preformed on their respective teams, Derek Carr is a significantly better quarterback. He is given much more control of the offense and makes throws that Mitch does not. 

I know he played at NC as was taken with the 2nd pick in the draft and is already on his third team. Looking at the stats right now in career and I would say he has more upside because he is younger and was in some pretty abysmal offenses. Looking at the stats and success I would say Derek is more productive and a better player, which is why he will get significantly more money and opportunity to be a starting QB this year.

I just don't view them as wildly different QBs in 2023. It seems with QBs, there are many people who rely on the eye test. That's the kind of perspective that sells you on a Justin Fields, convincing you he's your franchise QB, when he just led you to the #1 overall draft pick.

[Jon Snow]

1 minute ago, ECHornet said:

I just don't view them as wildly different QBs in 2023. It seems with QBs, there are many people who rely on the eye test. That's the kind of perspective that sells you on a Justin Fields, convincing you he's your franchise QB, when he just led you to the #1 overall draft pick.

My eye test tells me a different story about Fields.