A Statistical Analysis of Signing Carr vs. Trading for L. Jackson

[frankw]

The analysis says neither are worth the investment given the circumstances. Draft your own.

[Ricky Spanish]

16 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

No, we couldn't expect a similar level of play. He's produces a similar level of play in FAR better situations. Put Carr in his situations and he's probably considered one of the better QBs of his generation. Put Jimmy G in Carr's situations and he's Sam Darnold.

Carr is the new Stafford. His efficiency stats are scarily similar to those of Stafford in Detroit. I really think he'll do great in a new situation. But I think you aren't giving Jimmy enough credit.

Yes, the SF situation is better than Oakland. However, if it were as amazing as everyone seems to think it is, then ANY QB could thrive in that system, however only Jimmy G and Brock Purdy seem to be able to do it. SF Records of QBs not named Jimmy or Brock (And not trey lance due to him only playing like 3 games):

Hoyer 0-6

Beathard 2-10

Mullens 5-11

And their individual stats SUCK.

Look, I'm not saying Jimmy doesn't have his warts, I'm just saying you and this collective fanbase are propping up the 49ers with some extreme recency bias and neglecting the fact that until Purdy came along, any QB that wasn't Jimmy played like crap in that "FAR better Situation". 

I'm not saying we should 100% sign him, I'm just saying he's probably more of an option than people realize, he'd be cheaper, and his play is on par with Carr's.

[LinvilleGorge]

15 minutes ago, CamWhoaaCam said:

Either you want a franchise QB or you don't.

 

We have to trade up to get our QB in the draft as well.

 

It's like people want a franchise QB but don't want to give up the assets to get them. You're not getting a franchise QB for free. Either we are willing to trade or we are not. It's that simple.

Okay, do the deal. Then you're going to be in here screaming about how we have failed to build a team around Lamar. Well, no poo. We don't have any assets left to build with.

[Mr. Scot]

34 minutes ago, rayzor said:

desperate teams do desperate things. jets, falcons, and saints would be among the top teams to try. jets are desperate for a vet QB, both falcons and saints were in the watson sweepstakes and saints were even trying to get carr. 

wouldn't surprise me to see jackson in one of those two towns. 

Two good rules of thumb in football:

1) Pay attention to what smart teams do and learn from their ideas.

2) Pay attention to what dumb teams do and learn from their mistakes

The Ravens are a smart team. If they don't want to pay Jackson the kind of money he's asking for, I'd want to know why.

The Browns and Broncos are dumb teams. They both traded away high draft picks and huge money for someone else's "franchise quarterback" and now are regretting it.

I don't want us to be a dumb team.

[top dawg]

13 hours ago, CamWhoaaCam said:

Please stop mentioning Derek Carr in the same sentence as Lamar Jackson.

 

If you asking who do I want give me the MVP candidate every time who is only 26.

 

I don't care about picks we need a franchise QB that is how you win in this league. Carr isn't just had a loaded offense and Vegas and he took them nowhere. No thanks im tired of the castoff QB's every year.

 

Lamar>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Carr

Lamar and Aaron Rodgers will end up as the hottest QBs on the market; Derek and Jimmy ain't even in the conversation. The only teams that will even consider them are the desperate ones that can't do any better. 

[Ghostface Chilla]

Saw Carolina was a odds on favorite for Carr. Ugh, that would suck. I don't know if many of you watched Raiders games this past season, but he was terrible. Missing wide open receivers, over throwing, under throwing, he absolutely sucked. He looked more washed than Brady. He got benched for Jarret Stidhem FFS! Yeah yeah, that was done to save money, but if the Raiders were any closer to making the playoffs, they would have kept him in. He had weapons all over the field, and great RB, and good defense, and Carr still sucked. He had his best friend on the field, and couldn't get it done. I hope he doesn't come here. 

[rayzor]

 

8 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Two good rules of thumb in football:

1) Pay attention to what smart teams do and learn from their ideas.

2) Pay attention to what dumb teams do and learn from their mistakes

The Ravens are a smart team. If they don't want to pay Jackson the kind of money he's asking for, I'd want to know why.

The Browns and Broncos are dumb teams. They both traded away high draft picks and huge money for someone else's "franchise quarterback" and now are regretting it.

I don't want us to be a dumb team.

dumb teams hire college coaches with no pro experience and lets them control the roster and lets them hire all their old college buddies as assistants.

formerly dumb teams learn that wasn't such a good idea and do the opposite.

[Mr. Scot]

1 minute ago, rayzor said:

dumb teams hire college coaches with no pro experience and lets them control the roster and lets them hire all their old college buddies as assistants.

formerly dumb teams learn that wasn't such a good idea and do the opposite.

Ain't that the truth

Maybe I should have said I don't want us to be a dumb team again.

Edited February 16, 2023 by Mr. Scot

[LinvilleGorge]

22 minutes ago, Ricky Spanish said:

Carr is the new Stafford. His efficiency stats are scarily similar to those of Stafford in Detroit. I really think he'll do great in a new situation. But I think you aren't giving Jimmy enough credit.

Yes, the SF situation is better than Oakland. However, if it were as amazing as everyone seems to think it is, then ANY QB could thrive in that system, however only Jimmy G and Brock Purdy seem to be able to do it. SF Records of QBs not named Jimmy or Brock (And not trey lance due to him only playing like 3 games):

Hoyer 0-6

Beathard 2-10

Mullens 5-11

And their individual stats SUCK.

Look, I'm not saying Jimmy doesn't have his warts, I'm just saying you and this collective fanbase are propping up the 49ers with some extreme recency bias and neglecting the fact that until Purdy came along, any QB that wasn't Jimmy played like crap in that "FAR better Situation". 

I'm not saying we should 100% sign him, I'm just saying he's probably more of an option than people realize, he'd be cheaper, and his play is on par with Carr's.

Who is "everyone else" though? Nick Mullens? CJ Beathard? Yeah, those dudes suck. Jimmy G is considerably better than those guys. And yeah, so far Trey Lance honestly looks like a bust. Jimmy G is one of those good backup/marginal starter type guys who can look serviceable in a good system with good surrounding talent. Put him in the Raiders and watch what happens though. Hell, with Josh McDaniels there we might actually see that. I hope we do because it'll be hilarious.

[top dawg]

16 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Two good rules of thumb in football:

1) Pay attention to what smart teams do and learn from their ideas.

2) Pay attention to what dumb teams do and learn from their mistakes

The Ravens are a smart team. If they don't want to pay Jackson the kind of money he's asking for, I'd want to know why.

The Browns and Broncos are dumb teams. They both traded away high draft picks and huge money for someone else's "franchise quarterback" and now are regretting it.

I don't want us to be a dumb team.

The Browns have not even seen their QB for a half season of football. If they get the same results next season, then they may regret it. Until then, hold your horses before making that statement.

I can't really see a valid comparison between Wilson and Jackson either. One hasn't even hit his prime, while one appears past it. 

For all the talk you do of the Ravens being a smart franchise, If they were so smart, they'd have given Lamar some legitimate weapons on offense while he was still on his rookie contract. They haven't won a chip in a while, and they aren't the only "smart" team in the NFL. We seem to have some smart guys now, and I'll bet on their judgment until they start effing it up (which I'm trusting that they won't do). 

 

Edited February 16, 2023 by top dawg

[Mr. Scot]

2 minutes ago, top dawg said:

The Browns have not even seen their QB for a half season of football. If they get the same results next season, then they may regret it. Until then, hold your horses before making that statement.

I can't really see a valid comparison between Wilson and Jackson either. One hasn't even hit his prime, while one appears past it. 

For all the talk you do of the Ravens being a smart franchise, If they were so smart, they'd have given Lamar some legitimate weapons on offense while he was still on his rookie contract. They haven't won a chip in a while, and they aren't the only "smart" team in the NFL. We seem to have some smart guys now, and I'll bet on their judgment until they start effing it up (which I'm trusting that they won't do). 

If they give him the kind of contract he's asking for, do you think that's going to make them more able to surround him with weapons?

[top dawg]

Just now, Mr. Scot said:

If they give him the kind of contract he's asking for, do you think that's going to make them more able to surround him with weapons?

You can't poor-mouth your way to a championship. With the ever-increasing cap, you pay today so you can play tomorrow. KC wasn't and isn't crying because they had to pay Mahomes. And somehow they signed some weapons. Burrow will get paid. Herbert will get paid. The devil is always in the details. Jackson will get paid; how much he gets paid is anyone's guess right now. 

[top dawg]

Either you want a franchise QB or you don't. If you get one, the day of reckoning will come at some point.

[Mr. Scot]

7 minutes ago, top dawg said:

You can't poor-mouth your way to a championship. With the ever-increasing cap, you pay today so you can play tomorrow. KC wasn't and isn't crying because they had to pay Mahomes. And somehow they signed some weapons. Burrow will get paid. Herbert will get paid. The devil is always in the details. Jackson will get paid; how much he gets paid is anyone's guess right now. 

You can't just throw money at it either.

It's more important to be smart than bold.