A Statistical Analysis of Signing Carr vs. Trading for L. Jackson

[MHS831]

Time for a statistical deep dive comparing getting Carr for free vs. spending a "windfall" of picks to pay top $$$ for Jackson

Threw these numbers together to see if Lamar Jackson is worth the cost.  Here is what I found....

Age it matters, but if you consider playing style, Carr could have as many years left as Jackson--(See Newton, Cam)

• Carr 32
• Jackson 26

Character:  Advantage Jackson, but not an issue for either.  Based on the fact that Jackson's teammates like him and so do other who meet him.  Carr is religious and has no skeletons, but has some people on his team that are not "big fans" (insider info)

Overall

• Derek Carr   has averaged about 11 Interceptions a season against 24 TDs. (4.4% of his passes are TDs, 2% INTs).  he has a career average of completing 64.6% of his passes.
• Lamar Jackson has a career 6.1% TDs, and 2.4% interceptions but he throws less-- but he has struggled in the playoffs- 2.2% TDs, 3.7% Ints.  He has a career average of completing 63.7% of his passes 

Yards Passing Per Game ( big advantage Carr)

• Carr  Yards per game:  248 (7.1 per attempt)
• Jackson   Yards per game 174 (7.4 per attempt)

Rushing Per Game (Huge advantage Jackson)

• Jackson obviously offers more in the run game--  In 2022, in the 12 games he played, he averaged about 64 yards per game. 
• Carr averages (for career) 6 yards per game rushing.

Combined Passing and Rushing (wash:  The reason I call this a wash, is a rushing QB is more effective in the red zone, when yards are not as big a factor.  Makes it harder to cover all threats. While Carr has a 16 yard per game advantage, it is not substantial enough to crown a 1 dimensional QB over a dual threat)

• Carr:  Passing and rushing--254 yards per game
• Jackson: Passing and rushing--238 yards per game

MHS take:  Since this is only comparing 2 options (potentially) for the Panthers, I do not see the cost of going after Jackson being worth it.  He is a running QB and they have shorter careers--as RBs do vs. other position players--the body can only take so much pounding.  Carr could play another 4 years at a high level, and Jackson could be hitting a wall at the same time (the peak for an NFL RB is 27 years of age, then they drop off, on average, at a rate of about 30% per year--look it up.  It gives you some idea of the wear and tear on offensive player that run the ball, although a QB would run the ball maybe 10 times per game vs. 20 for a RB.)

My concerns about Jackson:  He is a running QB and he missed 5 games last year.  He would take a 5-year contract worth about $250m and he may not continue to produce through the entire contract.  He will also require a Watson-like windfall of draft picks and players.  He throws for about 175 yards per game and runs for 65. 

Carr would cost much less per season, and he should be a decent to good QB for 4 years.  A bridge?  Yes, but this team is young and they need a young General on the field.  We can still develop a young QB and let him compete, which is another reason you don't spend your future 3 first rounders and more to get Jackson so you can pay him $50m per season. 

I'd rather have Jackson, but the price tag and smart move is to purchase a used Carr.I am sure that Jackson is a lot more attractive for fantasy football owners, but for NFL owners, is he worth what it would take to take him over Carr?  I don't see it.

And I know some will start rambling about a different option, like drafting a QB--but that is not the point here.  Those are the people who are unlikely to read this far, so get your popcorn ready and watch them go.

 

Edited February 15, 2023 by MHS831

[Ricky Spanish]

Jimmy G is also available. I'd put him on the same tier as Carr in terms of play.

In terms of looks though, he's in a league of his own.

[Mr. Scot]

7 minutes ago, Ricky Spanish said:

Jimmy G is also available. I'd put him on the same tier as Carr in terms of play.

Can't agree. I'd say Carr is way better than Garoppolo.

[SmokinwithWilly]

2 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Can't agree. I'd say Carr is way better than Garoppolo.

Also worth noting Garoppolo hasn't been immune to injury himself. I'd worry more about his injury liability than LJ. 

[Carolina Cajun]

30 minutes ago, Ricky Spanish said:

Jimmy G is also available. I'd put him on the same tier as Carr in terms of play.

In terms of looks though, he's in a league of his own.

If he could stay healthy I'd agree, but he literally has started all 16 games one time in his 7 years with SF.  Its not his fault, but hes clearly injury prone.  Remember the greatest ability is availability and that gives Carr a huge edge.

[Proudiddy]

I really, really like Lamar, but I'm not trading 3 1sts for any QB at this point. Watson looked about as sure of a get as there was and a hands-down, no debate franchise QB. Browns traded the farm for him, his team got them to guarantee his entire contract despite the fact that by the time he would be eligible to play he wouldve had sat out almost 2 full years and then by the time he hit the field he looked like absolute poo. And i wanted Watson (dependent on the cost to trade)... whew.

 

 

 

It's my opinion now, when it comes to QBs, I'd much rather sign one and/or draft one than trade for one, especially a QB that is also wanting a new contract in addition to the cost of the trade. It's just too much to give up for Lamar in assets and money. I completely understand teams like the Rams last year or the Chiefs or Eagles this year, trading assets for positions to fit around a QB and team that's already in place... but when you invest that much solely in the position of QB, you often just aren't capable of plugging holes in other places for several years.

I think Lamar is the better overall player and is more dynamic, but Carr is also a hell of a player and will come at a lot less of a price in regards to assets and money and allows us to continue to address other positions that need to be addressed (rookie QB, TE, WR, Edge).

[Mr. Scot]

36 minutes ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

Also worth noting Garoppolo hasn't been immune to injury himself. I'd worry more about his injury liability than LJ. 

I thought San Fran was finally gonna hit a "sh-t or get off the pot" point with Lance but Purdy might have put that off a little longer.

[Proudiddy]

I'd also like to add, I completely agree with what we know of Lamar as a leader and his character. 100% awesome dude.

But I think, despite your insider sources, that you are understanding Carr's leadership and character. How he handled the Ruggs situation and all the other garbage that happened there in 2021 damn near brought a tear to my eye. It was admirable and I can't imagine someone handling that turbulent period any better. I already liked him, but it made me respect him that much more... but I also understand how being outspoken about your religion can sometimes rub people the wrong way in a locker room, and I suspect maybe that's where the insider source you have may have an issue?

[LinvilleGorge]

1 hour ago, Ricky Spanish said:

Jimmy G is also available. I'd put him on the same tier as Carr in terms of play.

In terms of looks though, he's in a league of his own.

Jimmy G is nowhere close to Carr in terms of level of play 

[LinvilleGorge]

51 minutes ago, Proudiddy said:

I really, really like Lamar, but I'm not trading 3 1sts for any QB at this point. Watson looked about as sure of a get as there was and a hands-down, no debate franchise QB. Browns traded the farm for him, his team got them to guarantee his entire contract despite the fact that by the time he would be eligible to play he wouldve had sat out almost 2 full years and then by the time he hit the field he looked like absolute poo. And i wanted Watson (dependent on the cost to trade)... whew.

 

It's my opinion now, when it comes to QBs, I'd much rather sign one and/or draft one than trade for one, especially a QB that is also wanting a new contract in addition to the cost of the trade. It's just too much to give up for Lamar in assets and money. I completely understand teams like the Rams last year or the Chiefs or Eagles this year trading assets for position to fit around a QB and team that's already in place... but when you invest that much solely in the position of QB, you often just aren't capable of plugging holes in other places for several years.

 

I think Lamar is the better overall player and is more dynamic, bit Carr is also a hell of a player and will come at a lot less of a price in regards to assets and money snd allows us to continue to address other positions that need to be addressed (rookie QB, TE, WR, Edge).

 

 

This. Carr is worth a discussion because he's an open market FA. Lamar is just off the board for me because Lamar would mean massive contract plus massive trade. We'd be completely hamstrung by the deal.

[The Lobo]

Lamar plz 

[top dawg]

My problem with this is that there's really no context, it's just numbers and assumptions, the biggest assumption being that Jackson is a "running quarterback" by nature. 

Like I said in another post somewhere: when your best skill position player is Mark Andrews, and you haven't really had any other WR or RB of note (& post-prime or washed up guys don't count), you're probably going to do too much. I also am amused that you've concluded that a 25 year old Jackson effectively has the same longevity as 32 year old Carr (notwithstanding playing style).

There's a lot of crystal-balling---yes, a verb---going on here.

[Ricky Spanish]

2 hours ago, Mr. Scot said:

Can't agree. I'd say Carr is way better than Garoppolo.

 

1 hour ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Jimmy G is nowhere close to Carr in terms of level of play 

Player A:

TD% - 4.4

INT%  - 2.0

Y/A - 7.1

AY/A - 7.1

Y/C - 11.0

Y/G - 248

Rat - 91.8

 

Player B:

TD% - 5.0

INT%  - 2.4

Y/A - 8.3

AY/A - 8.2

Y/C - 12.3

Y/G - 238.6

Rat - 99.2

 

Tell me who's who and who between the two is Significantly better than the other one.

2 hours ago, Carolina Cajun said:

If he could stay healthy I'd agree, but he literally has started all 16 games one time in his 7 years with SF.  Its not his fault, but hes clearly injury prone.  Remember the greatest ability is availability and that gives Carr a huge edge.

This I cannot argue. He is just as frail as he is handsome.

 

[LinvilleGorge]

8 minutes ago, Ricky Spanish said:

 

Player A:

TD% - 4.4

INT%  - 2.0

Y/A - 7.1

AY/A - 7.1

Y/C - 11.0

Y/G - 248

Rat - 91.8

 

Player B:

TD% - 5.0

INT%  - 2.4

Y/A - 8.3

AY/A - 8.2

Y/C - 12.3

Y/G - 238.6

Rat - 99.2

 

Tell me who's who and who between the two is Significantly better than the other one.

Jimmy G has played for two of the better franchises and better coaches in recent NFL memory. Carr has played for the Raiders.

There's a reason why Carr will be the hottest veteran QB on the market this year and Jimmy G will be hoping for another opportunity to even compete for a starting job.

FTR, if the plan is to draft a QB I wouldn't hate Jimmy G as a bridge/mentor.