Go for Carr hard and save #9 pick?

[45catfan]

Let's go back to QB draft classes beginning at 2010-just 12 short years ago, shall we? Qualifers: still the starter on original draft team, top 10 selection.

2010-None

2011-None

2012-None

2013-None

2014-None

2015-None

2016-None

2017-One-Mahommes

2018-One-Allen

-----------------------------------------------------

Still on rookie deals

2019-Two- Murray (extended), Jones (Jones not offered 5th year)

*2020-Three-Burrow, Tua, Herbert [*unicorn draft]

2021-One or two- Lawrence and Lance? Wilson is washed with the Jets

2022-None-None was worthy of a top 10 pick, lol!

 

Take out the unicorn draft and you have 5.5 (Lance is a .5 until we know more) top 10 QBs in the past dozen years still starting for their draft team.

A slam dunk moving up for a QB, huh?

Edited February 20, 2023 by 45catfan

[WOW!!]

1 minute ago, 45catfan said:

Let's go back to QB draft classes beginning at 2010-just 12 short years ago, shall we? Qualifers: still the starter on original draft team, top 10 selection.

2010-None

2011-None

2012-None

2013-None

2014-None

2015-None

2016-None

2017-One-Mahommes

2018-One-Allen

-----------------------------------------------------

Still on rookie deals

2019-Two- Murray (extended), Jones (Jones not offered 5th year)

*2020-Three-Burrow, Tua, Herbert [*unicorn draft]

2021-One or two- Lawrence and Lance? Wilson is washed with the Jets

2022-One-PIckett

 

Take out the unicorn draft and you have 6.5 (Lance is a .5 until we know more) top 10 QBs in the past dozen years still starting for their draft team.

A slam dunk moving up for a QB, huh?

Again what is the hit rate on 

1. A 45 year old Qb

2. 3rd, 4th and 7th round QB’s working out

3. A retread being good after 8 years in his career..

Since you brought up the other Playoff Qb situations.. What is the hit rate on those situations compared to drafting a QB in the 1st round?? 
 

Your so afraid of this but you think these other situations are more of a sure thing???

Or you hope we’re bad enough to get a QB next year 

Or you want to wait on the perfect situation where we are really bad in a great QB draft year??

What is the viability of any of this??

[45catfan]

Thank you for asking.  I want to move back in this draft and stock up on skill positions (outside of QB) and draft the defensive-appropriate personnel for a 3-4.  Prior to that I would like to pick up either Brissett and/or Minshew in FA  on a 2-3 year deal (backgrounds with Indy/Philly).  Get the rest of of the roster molded in the form that this staff is looking for and then in 2024 get the rookie QB.   Then there is zero pressure to start the guy right away.  If the rookie impresses, there's no major blow back (cap wise or from the fans) benching Minshew or Brissett if the rookie is ready to go.

Moving back this draft also gives us more picks for the 2024 draft in case we do have to move up some.

[WOW!!]

5 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

Thank you for asking.  I want to move back in this draft and stock up on skill positions (outside of QB) and draft the defensive-appropriate personnel for a 3-4.  Prior to that I would like to pick up either Brissett and/or Minshew in FA  on a 2-3 year deal (backgrounds with Indy/Philly).  Get the rest of of the roster molded in the form that this staff is looking for and then in 2024 get the rookie QB.   Then there is zero pressure to start the guy right away.  If the rookie impresses, there's no major blow back (cap wise or from the fans) benching Minshew or Brissett if the rookie is ready to go.

Moving back this draft also gives us more picks for the 2024 draft in case we do have to move up some.

Okay well agree to disagree.. 
I don’t want to wait till 2024 to get a QB hoping “this is the one year” when you get 1… Reality the team will be better and we will be in a worst position to get a QB.. Nor do we know if next year class will be better or not.. Because lately most classes have looked good before the season pans out.. 

So again agree to disagree..

Edited February 20, 2023 by WOW!!

[CamWhoaaCam]

1 minute ago, WOW!! said:

Okay well agree to disagree.. 
I don’t want to wait till 2024 to get a QB hoping “this is the one year” when you. Reality the team will be better and we will be in a worst position to get a QB.. Nor do we know if next year class will be better or not.. Because lately most classes have looked good before the season pans out.. 

So again agree to disagree..

I never get the "wait till next year" to get a QB approach. This roster is not bad enough to get the top QB's next year either. So we will be in the same position next year.

 

At some point you have to just bite the bullet and trade up for your QB. Waiting is not a guarantee either.

[45catfan]

Also when I say the 2020 draft is a unicorn, you'd have to go back allllllllll the way to 2004 to find another draft with similar success.  Before that?   Good luck going back that far!

Edit: Ooooh, I did find another...1971!!!!!

[WOW!!]

13 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

Also when I say the 2020 draft is a unicorn, you'd have to go back allllllllll the way to 2004 to find another draft with similar success.  Before that?   Good luck going back that far!

Edit: Ooooh, I did find another...1971!!!!!

Again what’s the hit rate on other QB situation working out???

[Cdparr7]

58 minutes ago, WOW!! said:

Honestly before you skip over this what is the hit rate of these situations compared to just drafting your QB in the 1st round??? I would love to know..

About the same as this unless you have a generational QB at the top of the draft.

[Cdparr7]

2 minutes ago, WOW!! said:

Again what’s the hit rate on other QB situation working out???

And based on the the QB playoff situation about 50/50 for both.

[frankw]

The people banging the "next year" drum are just shell-shocked. And then next year rolls around they'll start to hem and haw about how that years class isn't actually all that good. Drake Maye is the flavor of the month just like Sam Howell was way back when his hype was at an all time high and people had him going first overall.

Every. Damn. Year.

[45catfan]

6 minutes ago, WOW!! said:

Again what’s the hit rate on other QB situation working out???

About the same, 1/4 this past season:  Hurts-2nd, Geno Smith-2nd, Jimmy G.-2nd/Purdy 7th, Carr-2nd, Wilson-3rd, Dak-4th, Cousins-4th and Brady-6th.

[Cdparr7]

6 minutes ago, frankw said:

The people banging the "next year" drum are just shell-shocked. And then next year rolls around they'll start to hem and haw about how that years class isn't actually all that good. Drake Maye is the flavor of the month just like Sam Howell was way back when his hype was at an all time high and people had him going first overall.

Every. Damn. Year.

I disagree. I was against the QBs last year for obvious reasons even though half the board wanted us to take Pickett or Willis in the 1st. I was on the Fields/Jones train the year before and wanted Herbert or Love the year before that.

People just want the excitement of drafting a QB high, like having money in their pocket and wanting to buy something so bad they settle for something less and this year is something less, unless you want to sell everything to go get Stroud. And I mean everything. 
 

And even with him, People are forgetting that before his Georgia game his stock was falling. 

Edited February 20, 2023 by Cdparr7

[WOW!!]

5 minutes ago, Cdparr7 said:

And based on the the QB playoff situation about 50/50 for both.

No it’s not what math are you using??

Are you even doing the equations right??

 

Just like you want to claim all the hits and misses of 1st round QBs do the same thing with other QB situation..

Again

whats the hit rate on a 45 year old QBs leading there teams to the playoffs..

“What is the hit and misses rate on QBs picked after round 1..

What is the hit rate on  a 8 year vet finally figuring out how to play QB??

Do the same thing you do to discredit drafting a QB in the 1st round for all these situations…

[frankw]

2 minutes ago, Cdparr7 said:

I disagree. I was against the QBs last year for obvious reasons even though half the board wanted us to take Pickett or Willis in the 1st. I was on the Fields/Jones train the year before and wanted Herbert or Love the year before that.

People just want the excitement of drafting a QB high, like having money in their pocket and wanting to buy something so bad they settle for something less and this year is something less, unless you want to sell everything to go get Stroud. And I mean everything. 
 

And even with him, People are forgetting that before his Georgia game his stock was falling. 

We aren't solving the QB dilemma in trades or free agency. You swing when you get the chance. Reich didn't put this staff together to waste a season waiting on a QB next year. That's not how you run a franchise.