Quarterbacks win championships

[outlaw4]

If finding a franchise QB is as easy as people here make it sound, every team in the league would have one by now. There's that fantasy and the reality of not being in a great position to find someone this year. Our team isn't stacked enough to replicate what the Rams did by signing a FA QB - never mind that we may only get one shot at a run before the cap will blow up the team afterwards - and we're too far down in the draft in a year where the QB class is very thin. Obviously, take a shot at it but don't be stupid and give up everything for one guy and have nothing left over to put pieces around them. 

That said, our staff as it stands - at least on paper - may be the best we've ever had in terms of actually developing a QB who may need a bit of work. Someone other than the top two QBs may be the most realistic option and even then, we'll probably need another guy to be a bridge.

Finally, finding the guy helps a lot but it's still no guarantee. Burrow got to a SB and lost. Allen has yet to reach a SB. Herbert hasn't even won a playoff game so far. Meanwhile, we've seen guys like Goff, Jimmy G and Purdy went much further than anyone expected while backup Nick Foles actually beat Tom Brady in the big game. Basically, improve our odds the best we can given the options that are feasible.

[CRA]

1 minute ago, outlaw4 said:

If finding a franchise QB is as easy as people here make it sound, every team in the league would have one by now.  

It's not easy.  I don't think people are acting like it is easy.....they want the Panthers to start swinging. 

this whole, grab and a reject and hope one falls into your lap approach doesn't suit a lot of people.  We passed the last time a high prospect QB fell in our laps on top of that.  So even when you get that rare solar eclipse, we haven't taken advantage of it.  

[SCO96]

1 hour ago, DeAngelo Beason said:

When you have to go back 40+ years to find a reasonable sample size of teams that could win a championship with a piss poor QB you make my point for me.

You don't think the niners win two or three superbowls with a legit QB vs Jimmy?

You don't think the Panthers win Superbowl 38 with someone like Peyton Manning under center?

You think the Chiefs win yesterday's game, or even make the playoffs, with Trent Dilfer as QB?

 

Come on man.

 

None of the guys I mentioned were "piss poor quarterbacks". None were superstars but they knew to manage the game. Plukett won 2 SBs and his team were the underdogs in both of them. . They all played well win the team needed them the most. 

We'd all love to have a great QB behind center. My point that a good (not bad or below average, but good) QB can win in this league with a strong supporting cast. As great as Manning was, his teams lost by double digits in two Superbowls. Jake D played better in his loss to NE  in SB 13 than Peyton played in any of his 4 SB appearances.

And no, I don't think Dilfer would have won that game last night. But here's something interesting. Mahomes stat line was 21/27, 182 yards 3TDS and 0 INTs. He made some big plays by avoiding some sacks and scrambling that provided the margin of victory. But that you don't have to be an "ELITE QB" to put up stat-line like that. He made the plays when he needed to and he didn't make one mistake or take sack. If most teams could have their QB's play solid and mistake free football week in and week out they'll always be in contention for a championship.

We disagree a bit, but thanks for keeping things civil.

 

[Bear Hands]

30 minutes ago, SCO96 said:

People really aren't resistant to the idea that you need strong QB play to win a championship. We're resistant to the idea that giving up a several of our #1, #2 and possibly #3 draft picks in the in the 2023-2025 drafts to move up to get Bryce Young and CJ Stroud (neither is a sure bet to excel in the NFL) in the draft. 

Contrary to popular opinion, our roster is not that strong. We have some nice pieces in place. But we are not a stacked team by any measure. 

I would just defer people to what our GM and ownership has said and what their perspective seems to be.

We may not feel the defense is there yet, sure, plenty to still build up, but the people in charge think the big pieces are there. 

Fitt has reiterated his approach more than a few times.  They did defense first, then shored up the offense line, and now they think we can take the next step and get "explosive".  You cannot bank on filling virtually every hole with a plus-starter before getting playmakers, most importantly QB.  You have to just do what you need to get the guy you want at some point.  I think many are simply at that phase as fans.  They're entirely cool if that scenario happens. 

I mean, if the QB ends up looking the part, those picks are realistically what? The 3rd-4th best guys at their position group in the 24 & 25 classes? And maybe it's just next year's first.  Somewhere around pick 15 to late 20s? If the QB works out, it's not the same as missing out some on future top-10 studs.    

 

 

[Wundrbread33]

17 minutes ago, CRA said:

I don't think it lessens the point at all.  It reinforces how important the QB spot is from my vantage point.  

there were tons of better teams out there each year Brady was winning. 

and yeah, I think the point is to go find a HOF type player.  That's who can consistently compete for championships.  If you don't have that? Well, you are just praying for some obscure season playing out for you.   

I mean I think it’s obvious that having a great QB gives you an advantage. 
 

I was commenting more on the simplistic “quarterbacks win championships” phrase. 
 

Mahomes recently didn’t win a Super Bowl (55) when his line failed him, and his play was greatly affected. 
 

So literally the best QB in the NFL needed help, and since the team had too glaring a weakness on the line, they didn’t get it done. And they got the doors blown off.

 

Obviously you want to seek a top 5 quarterback, but that’s like hitting the lottery no matter the round you draft them. 
 

I get what you are saying, but the phrase “quarterbacks win championships” is just so simple when reality is far more complicated than that. 
 

And that’s what makes this game so interesting to me. So many variables and complexity, masked in something so seemingly simple. 

[CRA]

 

6 minutes ago, Wundrbread33 said:

Mahomes recently didn’t win a Super Bowl (55) when his line failed him, and his play was greatly affected. 
 

So literally the best QB in the NFL needed help, and since the team had too glaring a weakness on the line, they didn’t get it done. And they got the doors blown off.

I mean, his OL didn't just fail him.  They got comically thin because of injury.  And Mahomes was still a magician that game too.   He would perform some miracle and then folks would drop the ball.   It was a complete implosion all around him. 

[SCO96]

17 minutes ago, Bear Hands said:

I would just defer people to what our GM and ownership has said and what their perspective seems to be.

We can't always trust what comes out of the FO though. In 2021 Matt Rhule said that his "process was working" and that the team was getting better. 

19 minutes ago, Bear Hands said:

We may not feel the defense is there yet, sure, plenty to still build up, but the people in charge think the big pieces are there. 

Outside of JC Horn, Brian Burns, and possibly the surprise player of the year Frankie Luvu (100+ tackles, 7 sacks, and 1 INT) what big pieces would you say are in place?

22 minutes ago, Bear Hands said:

Fitt has reiterated his approach more than a few times.  They did defense first, then shored up the offense line, and now they think we can take the next step and get "explosive".  You cannot bank on filling virtually every hole with a plus-starter before getting playmakers, most importantly QB.  You have to just do what you need to get the guy you want at some point.  I think many are simply at that phase as fans.  They're entirely cool if that scenario happens. 

I'll admit he did a GREAT job on the O-line!  As I pointed out earlier that defense is suspect. If we don't add any depth in 2022 and Burns ends up missing some games we literally do not have a pass rush.

27 minutes ago, Bear Hands said:

I mean, if the QB ends up looking the part, those picks are realistically what? The 3rd-4th best guys at their position group in the 24 & 25 classes? And maybe it's just next year's first.  Somewhere around pick 15 to late 20s? If the QB works out, it's not the same as missing out some on future top-10 studs.

That's a big "IF". Bryce probably weighs less than most of us on this board and could get broken in half in the NFL. CJ Stroud comes from a OHIO STATE program that has NEVER produced a good pro QB the last 65 years. Yet, people feel that we need to mortgage our draft capital b/c these two "might be the guy" We can likely find a competent QB just as good as either at #9. It' like some are saying Frank Reich, McCown, and whoever we hire at OC can't win next year if we don't get Stroud or Young. A lot of us just don't see it that way. 

[Wundrbread33]

1 hour ago, CRA said:

 

I mean, his OL didn't just fail him.  They got comically thin because of injury.  And Mahomes was still a magician that game too.   He would perform some miracle and then folks would drop the ball.   It was a complete implosion all around him. 

That’s what I’m saying. Perhaps text is a bad way to talk. 
 

Football is too much of a team game for “quarterbacks win championships” to be anything but a simple and annoying thing to just say.

[outlaw4]

1 hour ago, CRA said:

It's not easy.  I don't think people are acting like it is easy.....they want the Panthers to start swinging. 

this whole, grab and a reject and hope one falls into your lap approach doesn't suit a lot of people.  We passed the last time a high prospect QB fell in our laps on top of that.  So even when you get that rare solar eclipse, we haven't taken advantage of it.  

Nothing can be done about past decisions. All we can do is take our shots going forward. Just that the potential swings this offseason are not great and extremely expensive either from a cap standpoint or draft picks. Again, the one advantage we haven't had before is a staff more capable of drafting a guy that - years later - people will say was a steal because we were able to identify that QB who just needed to be fully developed and we were able to do it. If I had to bet money, this is what we will do and worst case, we try again next year with a much better roster to where we can afford to give up a lot more.

[Bear Hands]

26 minutes ago, SCO96 said:

Outside of JC Horn, Brian Burns, and possibly the surprise player of the year Frankie Luvu (100+ tackles, 7 sacks, and 1 INT) what big pieces would you say are in place?

Brown was arguably the most improved player on the team and became the true anchor of the defense. Horn & Jackson are both here long term.  Chinn is in tact.  Luvu is in place.  Woods is still here.  Burns likely to be re-signed.  We spent the entire 2020 draft on defense and min 3 guys in the last 2.  

Seems like the type of picks we'd be mortgaging for a QB that could be spent on defense aren't historically amounting to much by the standards of those wanting to keep picking defense.

31 minutes ago, SCO96 said:

That's a big "IF". Bryce probably weighs less than most of us on this board and could get broken in half in the NFL. CJ Stroud comes from a OHIO STATE program that has NEVER produced a good pro QB the last 65 years. Yet, people feel that we need to mortgage our draft capital b/c these two "might be the guy"  We can likely find a competent QB just as good as either at #9. It' like some are saying Frank Reich, McCown, and whoever we hire at OC can't win next year if we don't get Stroud or Young. A lot of us just don't see it that way. 

Ah, there it is.  But, yes, that's the whole point. People think they could be the guy.  And if the staff does, you're the one needing to do some reconciling here with that predisposition (OSU omen and the Young-size concern). 

No one knows for sure, you either take the risk or just risk being stuck in an even worse spot next year with even less impactful pick placement.  Both risks, one has clear, tangental reward with a QB and future.  The other is just putting it off yet again, with the hope of a shinier one the following year.       

So if we don't, I agree, I'm actually confident this growing staff can win some with another guy--who is not at all our future.  It's not Heinicke, Jimmy G, Darnold, none of them are our realistically our future. 

So we're settling (again) with a stopgap, but better defense, you're potentially in an even worse spot, picking 16-22ish next year stuck in a Tannehill-hellscape scenario, we're stepping into even worse sh*t than this year, the year before, and the year before that.  

Not to mention, Maye and/or Ewers aren't even sure things to declare. And I don't even want to start on the potential 24' class yet.  That's a whole other thing to unravel in itself with the assumptions being made about it.  

[beckersteen]

Last night was decided by a defensive TD and a great punt return. 

[Jay Roosevelt]

I have no interest in Carr or Lamar. DRAFT A QB!!!

[AggieLean]

4 hours ago, joemac said:

If we do get Carr there is no way in hell that we draft a QB at 9.  I could see a LB, DE or even WR in that scenario. 

Carr would throw a fit if the new team he goes to drafts a QB early. He is going to go to a team that is willing to fully commit to him. All this, let’s sign Carr then draft a QB isn’t realistic at all. 

[Jay Roosevelt]

I love how some folks are so worried about "mortgaging the future" by giving up draft capital to trade up for a QB but don't seem to realize that without a QB no amount of draft capital means a damn thing. A team full of drafted Pro Bowlers without a QB IS a waste of draft capital because without one the team has no future.

It's entirely possible trading up for a QB could backfire on us, but that's the way it goes. We have to at least TRY to get our guy. What's the alternative? Trotting out other team's table scraps year after year?

Outside of getting insanely lucky and hitting on a Jalen Hurts outside of round 1 that's what we're going to be stuck with if we don't at least take our shot at finding a franchise QB.