What would you give the bears for #1 pick

[amcoolio]

Personally, I don't think there's a chance AR goes in the top 10. He has way too many question marks, starting with reading defenses, consistency, mechanics and accuracy. I predict he drops into the 20's or even 2nd round like Hurts, Paxton Lynch, Willis, Manziel, etc.

I do think that a trade up with the Cardinals is the most likely scenario right now, there's no one really for them at #3 worth keeping the pick for and not getting extra capital

[Icege]

2 hours ago, joemac said:

I've run a poo ton of mock draft simulations here:

https://www.pff.com/draft/nfl-mock-draft-simulator?ref=55b59848-1711-46b1-9453-558b00c41cf6

And there are almost zero scenarios where any of the 4 QBs worth a first round pick last to us at 9.  We are going to 100% have to trade up in order to draft Young, Stroud, Levis or Richardson. 

That's normal for this time of year, especially since it's before free agency and the veteran QB carousel has gotten up to full speed.

Last season, we were all told that Kenny Pickett, Malik Willis, Sam Howell, Desmond Ridder, and possibly even Matt Corral would be gone in the first round. Pickett ended up being the only QB selected in the 1st round at #20. Corral, Willis, and Ridder all went in the 3rd and Howell in the 5th.

In 2021, we were told that all 5 QBs would be gone within the first 5 picks. 3 went 1-2-3 (which, iirc, is only the second time that happened during the modern draft), but Fields lasted to #11 and Jones to #15. 

2020 was the year of Burrow, Tua, and Herbert. While we famously missed out on Herbert by one game, a Super Bowl-bound Jalen Hurts was drafted in the 2nd round.

Don't get me wrong, this isn't a "You don't have to find a QB in the 1st round," post. I'm just attempting to highlight how at this time of year, as fans, we get googly-eyed over any prospect that isn't on the team and the FOMO (fear of missing out) becomes almost unbearable.

I also think that folks tend to forget that a lot of teams, because they spend the most money on their first round selections, want to get an impact starter for a position that will also help them save money. It's one of the reasons why we don't see centers taken often in the 1st (much to my dismay), because contractually you end up saving next to nothing if you get a center in the 1st when comparing them to average second contracts. If a team is in the right position (or desperate enough), there's always the potential gamble, but for the most part you're going to see guys that can immediately start go early. A franchise QB is the apple of every team's eye, but if they're not ready to start they had better have some damn impressive tape to justify the selection. Nobody wants a guy to sit and learn unless they can afford it.

[outlaw4]

Nothing. Don't like the prospect of a bidding war with other teams.

[Krovvy]

54 minutes ago, Icege said:

That's normal for this time of year, especially since it's before free agency and the veteran QB carousel has gotten up to full speed.

Last season, we were all told that Kenny Pickett, Malik Willis, Sam Howell, Desmond Ridder, and possibly even Matt Corral would be gone in the first round. Pickett ended up being the only QB selected in the 1st round at #20. Corral, Willis, and Ridder all went in the 3rd and Howell in the 5th.

In 2021, we were told that all 5 QBs would be gone within the first 5 picks. 3 went 1-2-3 (which, iirc, is only the second time that happened during the modern draft), but Fields lasted to #11 and Jones to #15. 

2020 was the year of Burrow, Tua, and Herbert. While we famously missed out on Herbert by one game, a Super Bowl-bound Jalen Hurts was drafted in the 2nd round.

Don't get me wrong, this isn't a "You don't have to find a QB in the 1st round," post. I'm just attempting to highlight how at this time of year, as fans, we get googly-eyed over any prospect that isn't on the team and the FOMO (fear of missing out) becomes almost unbearable.

I also think that folks tend to forget that a lot of teams, because they spend the most money on their first round selections, want to get an impact starter for a position that will also help them save money. It's one of the reasons why we don't see centers taken often in the 1st (much to my dismay), because contractually you end up saving next to nothing if you get a center in the 1st when comparing them to average second contracts. If a team is in the right position (or desperate enough), there's always the potential gamble, but for the most part you're going to see guys that can immediately start go early. A franchise QB is the apple of every team's eye, but if they're not ready to start they had better have some damn impressive tape to justify the selection. Nobody wants a guy to sit and learn unless they can afford it.

The mocks I was looking at had Pickett and sometimes Malik going in the first round, and that was usually only to the Steelers.

[amcoolio]

3 minutes ago, Krovvy said:

The mocks I was looking at had Pickett and sometimes Malik going in the first round, and that was usually only to the Steelers.

Things changed wildly from the Superbowl to draft time, because for some unknown reason the NFL needs 80 days between the two. I remember Pickett #1 overall, Malik mocked to us, Ridder and Corral all mocked in the first 30 picks right after the season ended last year because I was frustrated with Darnold and wanted a QB

[Krovvy]

2 minutes ago, amcoolio said:

Things changed wildly from the Superbowl to draft time, because for some unknown reason the NFL needs 80 days between the two. I remember Pickett #1 overall, Malik mocked to us, Ridder and Corral all mocked in the first 30 picks right after the season ended last year because I was frustrated with Darnold and wanted a QB

Things do change quite a bit, but usually it's guys moving up the boards. Last year the mocks I was looking at early had only Pickett going in the first, with Corral sometimes. After Malik's pro-day he was hyped for a week or two, showing up in mocks, but ultimately the mocks went back to mainly Pickett being mocked to the Steelers, and sometimes Malik.

[Icege]

23 minutes ago, Krovvy said:

The mocks I was looking at had Pickett and sometimes Malik going in the first round, and that was usually only to the Steelers.

Post quoting an Observer article pointing out the possibility of Ridder going at the end of the first.

There are other examples out there showing Corral and Howell being discussed as potential late 1st rounders, especially with Howell (some here even considered him QB1 in the class). Malik not going in the 1st was a huge shock here after all of the clamoring during the offseason. 

Edited February 2, 2023 by Icege

[Krovvy]

8 minutes ago, Icege said:

Post quoting an Observer article pointing out the possibility of Ridder going at the end of the first.

There are other examples out there showing Corral and Howell being discussed as potential late 1st rounders, especially with Howell (some here even considered him QB1 in the class). Malik not going in the 1st was a huge shock here after all of the clamoring during the offseason. 

That's nice, but from just googling.

Daniel Jeremiah 2022 NFL mock draft 4.0: Steelers, Lions select QBs; Cowboys pick WR

2022 NFL Mock Draft - WalterFootball.com

2022 NFL Mock Draft: final projection on draft day - Sports Illustrated

If you follow mocks, you'll know that writers will come up with all sorts of random scenarios to generate clicks. I generally stick with established mock drafters, and community mock drafts done by writers for specific teams. 

[Icege]

10 minutes ago, Krovvy said:

That's nice, but from just googling.

Daniel Jeremiah 2022 NFL mock draft 4.0: Steelers, Lions select QBs; Cowboys pick WR

2022 NFL Mock Draft - WalterFootball.com

2022 NFL Mock Draft: final projection on draft day - Sports Illustrated

If you follow mocks, you'll know that writers will come up with all sorts of random scenarios to generate clicks. I generally stick with established mock drafters, and community mock drafts done by writers for specific teams. 

I hear you, but even you were saying Howell and maybe Willis were above Pickett even after all of those established mock drafters and community writers.

DJ's co-worker, Chad Reuter of NFL.com, also had Corral going #6 to Carolina, Ridder going to PIT @ #12, and Howell going to TEN @ #14: link

Which all supports my original point that it is way too early to assume that all of the top QB prospects will be unavailable at #9. If we want to assume that the top 2 are gone, that's fair, but that could also change based on how teams address their QB position in free agency when it begins in March.

[ncfan]

38 minutes ago, Icege said:

Post quoting an Observer article pointing out the possibility of Ridder going at the end of the first.

There are other examples out there showing Corral and Howell being discussed as potential late 1st rounders, especially with Howell (some here even considered him QB1 in the class). Malik not going in the 1st was a huge shock here after all of the clamoring during the offseason. 

I’ve learned now. 
Go what what they’re saying now pre combine, pro days etc.  and then the week before draft.  Avg those 2 out and you’ll get a better idea.

This time last year.  Pickett was the only one they had going in rd 1.  With Corral, Willis, and Ridder rd 2 guys with “potential to rise”

That’s when the underwear Olympics came.  And now it’s televised, and the NFL is QB thirsty (which a good reason why.  It the single most import position in all of sports).

The Pro day comes 
First Willis comes out in his Spandex.  And he does that roll out bomb down field that Zach Wilson and Fields did that lit the football world on fire.  Next Ridder and then Corral.  Then the whole draft world was on a high.  That’s when you started seeing mocks him crazy saying “if you don’t move up from ___, you might not get him.” Narrative started.

 

As you got closer to the draft.  You saw the high fade off and the dust start to settle.  Some people were still on the high from those Twitter clips of those pro days.  But the scouts continued to comb through the film and confirmed what they said going into the post CFB draft season.

Daniel Jeremiah had 1 QB in his top 25 overall prospects.

Right now he has 4 QBs in the top 13

 

 

Also of you notice.  This time last year.  People were hyping up Stroud and Young as the next thing.  Stroud coming off that Rosebowl.  People were already talking him up like Burrow “if he were eligible, he’d ho top 3 in the draft. (Kind of sound familiar to 2 other guys we’re talking about for 2024)

These QBs are already hyped this early in the scouting community and draft analysts community, Before the pro days.

Levis and ARich come out their pro day and sling it.  People will be getting Chubs.  Richardson is a lot bigger faster and stronger than Willis.  And both  Levis/Richardson have Justin Herbert/Josh Allen level cannon.  So when they roll out and throw it 70 yards with ease on the Proday.  Everyone is going to freak out. (By the way Levis is a pretty good athlete as well, if he tests at the combine people are going to lose it)

Edited February 2, 2023 by ncfan

[ncfan]

https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/10033919-nfl-coach-says-qbs-in-2022-draft-class-are-horrific-and-terrible.amp.html

 

 

Edited February 2, 2023 by ncfan

[CamWhoaaCam]

Rumors are the new Bears GM is not in love with Fields. 

 

Colin Cowherd said at the end of his show he has a source within the Bears front office and they will try to trade Fields.

That would shake up the whole draft because im guessing one of those teams that need a QB will try and trade for Fields.

Im guessing we will go after Fields especially if the Bears take Stroud or Young #1.

 

Burns/#9 for Fields should get it done.

[ncfan]

[t96]

9th overall, 2024 1st, 2023 2nd (ours), 2023 3rd (49ers). Probably not any more than that and I don't think that would get it done.

 

We'd be without our 1st next year (but hopefully it would be late with us making the playoffs with the boosts that Reich and Stroud give us in this crappy division). And this year we'd still have a 2nd round pick and a 4th and two 5ths. Not terrible...