What would you give the bears for #1 pick

[rippadonn]

1 hour ago, SameDamnThing said:

This is how it always goes. Teams are trying to give the Bears the impression they’d be holding the bag waiting for a trade for Young and keeping as much of a poker face as possible. When the balls start flying in private workouts and at the combine, all that goes out the window. We don’t even have a consensus 1-2-3 yet between Stroud, Young, and Levis. Houston has the easiest shot to move up for a few picks. Carolina will have to offer substantially more future value to get the Bears to bite on 1st to 9th. Again, a lot depends on how these kids work out. If we believe our guy is the 3rd ranked guy, we can stand pat and see what unfolds in the run up. It’s not impossible to get our guy outside the Top 5, especially if Levis is our favorite. We could move to the 6th or 7th and offer some certainty to those teams their defensive guy will still be there at 9th. But I would imagine that the QBs worth taking early are going to bunch up in the Top 5 and we will have to pay someone’s price. I think we can get that done with only 2023 picks with as many shots as we have Top 100. If we need to get back in the mix for a TE on Day 2 we can do it with 2024 picks and be alright. 
 

However, if we get a faller for some reason we are right in range for him. I don’t know if Bryce will test well enough to answer questions about his height and those are significant. People act like it’s a no story deal but it matters. Stroud will have to test well in athleticism and consistency. Levis doesn’t have the resume but has the arm and the stature. His mobility will also matter. As will his ball placement and decision making. He’s going to have to win in the film room with a lot of teams. My early order is Young then Stroud and then a slight gap to Levis and that can entirely flip based on testing. I think we will be appropriately aggressive considering our ambition to win now with a defense that is a few guys short of elite. 

Brilliant!

I totally agree except for Young and maybe Stroud.

After the combine I see Stroud moving to #1QB. I'm going to predict a shocker that Young will be leap frogged by two more physical specimen in Will Levis and Anthony Richardson.

Young is the decoy in my opinion. I see him dropping behind all the taller, also skilled guys. Stroud is the real target for everyone. 

[joemac]

16 hours ago, ForJimmy said:

Aren’t the Bucs like 55 million over the cap? Their roster will look a lot different come game day.

The entire Bucs roster looks old and slow.  I would MUCH rather have our roster as it currently stands versus Tampa.  

[Actionman0z]

1 for 9, 60 whatever and another 1st and 3rd later. If that didn’t get it done, I would do 9,3rd, 24 1st and 25 first. 

[joemac]

I've run a poo ton of mock draft simulations here:

https://www.pff.com/draft/nfl-mock-draft-simulator?ref=55b59848-1711-46b1-9453-558b00c41cf6

And there are almost zero scenarios where any of the 4 QBs worth a first round pick last to us at 9.  We are going to 100% have to trade up in order to draft Young, Stroud, Levis or Richardson. 

[*FreeFua*]

Stroud and Levis will probably go 1-2

I like Bryce A LOT but his size and his arm strength are probably going to scare some teams. Young’s arm strength is similar to Pickett’s.

I’ve wanted AR since October so I’m a bit bias when it comes to where I think he goes but I do believe 3 QB’s will be gone by 9 without a doubt and a decent chance all 4 go before 9.

[ForJimmy]

3 hours ago, ncfan said:

I too was here before the site crash in 08

ive just never seen someone so embedded in defending and banking on a mid level prospect.

He did it with Trask and Carson Strong. It’s his thing…

[amcoolio]

Personally, I don't think there's a chance AR goes in the top 10. He has way too many question marks, starting with reading defenses, consistency, mechanics and accuracy. I predict he drops into the 20's or even 2nd round like Hurts, Paxton Lynch, Willis, Manziel, etc.

I do think that a trade up with the Cardinals is the most likely scenario right now, there's no one really for them at #3 worth keeping the pick for and not getting extra capital

[Icege]

2 hours ago, joemac said:

I've run a poo ton of mock draft simulations here:

https://www.pff.com/draft/nfl-mock-draft-simulator?ref=55b59848-1711-46b1-9453-558b00c41cf6

And there are almost zero scenarios where any of the 4 QBs worth a first round pick last to us at 9.  We are going to 100% have to trade up in order to draft Young, Stroud, Levis or Richardson. 

That's normal for this time of year, especially since it's before free agency and the veteran QB carousel has gotten up to full speed.

Last season, we were all told that Kenny Pickett, Malik Willis, Sam Howell, Desmond Ridder, and possibly even Matt Corral would be gone in the first round. Pickett ended up being the only QB selected in the 1st round at #20. Corral, Willis, and Ridder all went in the 3rd and Howell in the 5th.

In 2021, we were told that all 5 QBs would be gone within the first 5 picks. 3 went 1-2-3 (which, iirc, is only the second time that happened during the modern draft), but Fields lasted to #11 and Jones to #15. 

2020 was the year of Burrow, Tua, and Herbert. While we famously missed out on Herbert by one game, a Super Bowl-bound Jalen Hurts was drafted in the 2nd round.

Don't get me wrong, this isn't a "You don't have to find a QB in the 1st round," post. I'm just attempting to highlight how at this time of year, as fans, we get googly-eyed over any prospect that isn't on the team and the FOMO (fear of missing out) becomes almost unbearable.

I also think that folks tend to forget that a lot of teams, because they spend the most money on their first round selections, want to get an impact starter for a position that will also help them save money. It's one of the reasons why we don't see centers taken often in the 1st (much to my dismay), because contractually you end up saving next to nothing if you get a center in the 1st when comparing them to average second contracts. If a team is in the right position (or desperate enough), there's always the potential gamble, but for the most part you're going to see guys that can immediately start go early. A franchise QB is the apple of every team's eye, but if they're not ready to start they had better have some damn impressive tape to justify the selection. Nobody wants a guy to sit and learn unless they can afford it.

[outlaw4]

Nothing. Don't like the prospect of a bidding war with other teams.

[Krovvy]

54 minutes ago, Icege said:

That's normal for this time of year, especially since it's before free agency and the veteran QB carousel has gotten up to full speed.

Last season, we were all told that Kenny Pickett, Malik Willis, Sam Howell, Desmond Ridder, and possibly even Matt Corral would be gone in the first round. Pickett ended up being the only QB selected in the 1st round at #20. Corral, Willis, and Ridder all went in the 3rd and Howell in the 5th.

In 2021, we were told that all 5 QBs would be gone within the first 5 picks. 3 went 1-2-3 (which, iirc, is only the second time that happened during the modern draft), but Fields lasted to #11 and Jones to #15. 

2020 was the year of Burrow, Tua, and Herbert. While we famously missed out on Herbert by one game, a Super Bowl-bound Jalen Hurts was drafted in the 2nd round.

Don't get me wrong, this isn't a "You don't have to find a QB in the 1st round," post. I'm just attempting to highlight how at this time of year, as fans, we get googly-eyed over any prospect that isn't on the team and the FOMO (fear of missing out) becomes almost unbearable.

I also think that folks tend to forget that a lot of teams, because they spend the most money on their first round selections, want to get an impact starter for a position that will also help them save money. It's one of the reasons why we don't see centers taken often in the 1st (much to my dismay), because contractually you end up saving next to nothing if you get a center in the 1st when comparing them to average second contracts. If a team is in the right position (or desperate enough), there's always the potential gamble, but for the most part you're going to see guys that can immediately start go early. A franchise QB is the apple of every team's eye, but if they're not ready to start they had better have some damn impressive tape to justify the selection. Nobody wants a guy to sit and learn unless they can afford it.

The mocks I was looking at had Pickett and sometimes Malik going in the first round, and that was usually only to the Steelers.

[amcoolio]

3 minutes ago, Krovvy said:

The mocks I was looking at had Pickett and sometimes Malik going in the first round, and that was usually only to the Steelers.

Things changed wildly from the Superbowl to draft time, because for some unknown reason the NFL needs 80 days between the two. I remember Pickett #1 overall, Malik mocked to us, Ridder and Corral all mocked in the first 30 picks right after the season ended last year because I was frustrated with Darnold and wanted a QB

[Krovvy]

2 minutes ago, amcoolio said:

Things changed wildly from the Superbowl to draft time, because for some unknown reason the NFL needs 80 days between the two. I remember Pickett #1 overall, Malik mocked to us, Ridder and Corral all mocked in the first 30 picks right after the season ended last year because I was frustrated with Darnold and wanted a QB

Things do change quite a bit, but usually it's guys moving up the boards. Last year the mocks I was looking at early had only Pickett going in the first, with Corral sometimes. After Malik's pro-day he was hyped for a week or two, showing up in mocks, but ultimately the mocks went back to mainly Pickett being mocked to the Steelers, and sometimes Malik.

[Icege]

23 minutes ago, Krovvy said:

The mocks I was looking at had Pickett and sometimes Malik going in the first round, and that was usually only to the Steelers.

Post quoting an Observer article pointing out the possibility of Ridder going at the end of the first.

There are other examples out there showing Corral and Howell being discussed as potential late 1st rounders, especially with Howell (some here even considered him QB1 in the class). Malik not going in the 1st was a huge shock here after all of the clamoring during the offseason. 

Edited February 2, 2023 by Icege

[Krovvy]

8 minutes ago, Icege said:

Post quoting an Observer article pointing out the possibility of Ridder going at the end of the first.

There are other examples out there showing Corral and Howell being discussed as potential late 1st rounders, especially with Howell (some here even considered him QB1 in the class). Malik not going in the 1st was a huge shock here after all of the clamoring during the offseason. 

That's nice, but from just googling.

Daniel Jeremiah 2022 NFL mock draft 4.0: Steelers, Lions select QBs; Cowboys pick WR

2022 NFL Mock Draft - WalterFootball.com

2022 NFL Mock Draft: final projection on draft day - Sports Illustrated

If you follow mocks, you'll know that writers will come up with all sorts of random scenarios to generate clicks. I generally stick with established mock drafters, and community mock drafts done by writers for specific teams.