Agent 89 on Brock Purdy and 1st Round QBs

[heel31ok]

18 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

Lol. In fairness, keep in mind that Steve Smith still has a chip on his shoulder about his scouting evaluation. Not saying he doesn't have a point but he also might be more than a little biased. 

A correct bias.

[Mr. Scot]

13 hours ago, Krovvy said:

I wish we had a system for a quarterback to play in.

We had a Process.

(also a Brand)

[kungfoodude]

31 minutes ago, heel31ok said:

A correct bias.

Possibly so. He would know more than any of us.

[SCO96]

40 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Smitty is right--when 50% of first round picks (approx.) bust,  why hire scouts?  I have said what he said about a first rounder--he gets 3 years to "prove it" where a kid that should need 3 years, a seventh rounder, is cut during preseason. 

I kept mocking Purdy to us last year--so I am pissed off.

This also makes me worry about the four first round QBs in this year's draft.

Young:  Alabama has a great OL and good WRs.  Still, his size makes him questionable, but he will be a first rounder and he will have 3 years to prove it.  He weighs 185 lbs, and that is scary.

Stroud:  He has all the tools.  Perfect modern NFL QB.  Is that not what they said about Fields and Haskins?  Did the best Ohio State QB ever not sit the bench and transfer to LSU?  Name a great Ohio State QB.  I'll wait over here.

Levis:  Another with all the tools.  Where was the productivity over his college career?  In 2 years as the KY Wildcats QB, he threw 23 interceptions.  Is that expected to improve in the NFL?

Richardson:  A stud athlete, and there is a lot to like, but he completed less that 60% of his passes and threw for 17 TDs vs. 9 Interceptions.  He is a dual threat, but is he really a top 15 player?  He will need some work.

Therefore, I am not impressed with this group of QBs.  In 2021, I was not thrilled about Lance or Wilson, stated (and I was blasted on this board--it hurt my feelings) that Mac Jones was perhaps better.  I wanted Fields. 

Hooker: " Hooker completed 70 percent of his passes during his 2022 season for 3,135 yards, 27 touchdowns and two interceptions. He also recorded 430 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. Hooker tore an ACL" (Walter Football), and will probably need a year.  Now that means he would be about 26 years old before he could play football.  Many see that as a negative. I don't.  A mature QB between the ages of 26-29 on a first contract?  The second contract would cover years 30-34, so you still get him for 8 years.  How long did we have Cam (from his rookie season to the last effective season)?  Hooker beat Bama.  Hooker made Tennessee relevant.

I am almost of the mindset to wait and take Herndon Hooker at the end of round 2 (let him develop for a season as he rehabs)

Tune: Want a QB in this draft that has a lot of similarities to Purdy?  Clayton Tune from Houston.  He is 6-3, 220, and nothing really jumps off the charts at you.  However, "Tune enjoyed an excellent senior year, racking up a lot of production and putting up a lot of points for the Cougars. In 2022, he completed 67 percent of his passes for 4,061 yards, 40 touchdowns and 10 interceptions....He will enter the next level with a lot of starting experience because he broke into the starting lineup during the 2019 season. Tune played well in 2021 too, completing 68 percent of his passes for 3,546 yards, 30 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. " Some team sources say they are not high on Tune. (Walter Football)

So in two seasons, and that is a lot of experience, He has 70 TDs and 20 interceptions.  How are Levis and Richardson expected to be drafted 130 picks earlier?  I don't get it.  Was it the system--maybe--but if that were the easy answer, wouldn't everyone run that system?

I might even draft both QBs in this Draft--Hooker in round 2 or 3, and Tune on day 3.

Good post. I think the main problems is with how the "pundits" evaluate QB's. We assume someone is a first rounder because the evaluation people say they are. They may not really have 1st round talent. Remember how Mel Kiper Jr was all in on Jimmy Clauson being a 1st round pick? Back in 1978 Joe Montana was viewed as a 3rd round talent. Tony Romo and Kurt Warner weren't even drafted which means the pundits didn't think they were worth drafting. How did the above scenarios turn out.

In reality, some QB's are overrated draft prospects, and some QB's are underrated prospects.

[BeenPounding]

59 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Smitty is right--when 50% of first round picks (approx.) bust,  why hire scouts?  I have said what he said about a first rounder--he gets 3 years to "prove it" where a kid that should need 3 years, a seventh rounder, is cut during preseason. 

I kept mocking Purdy to us last year--so I am pissed off.

This also makes me worry about the four first round QBs in this year's draft.

Young:  Alabama has a great OL and good WRs.  Still, his size makes him questionable, but he will be a first rounder and he will have 3 years to prove it.  He weighs 185 lbs, and that is scary.

Stroud:  He has all the tools.  Perfect modern NFL QB.  Is that not what they said about Fields and Haskins?  Did the best Ohio State QB ever not sit the bench and transfer to LSU?  Name a great Ohio State QB.  I'll wait over here.

Levis:  Another with all the tools.  Where was the productivity over his college career?  In 2 years as the KY Wildcats QB, he threw 23 interceptions.  Is that expected to improve in the NFL?

Richardson:  A stud athlete, and there is a lot to like, but he completed less that 60% of his passes and threw for 17 TDs vs. 9 Interceptions.  He is a dual threat, but is he really a top 15 player?  He will need some work.

Therefore, I am not impressed with this group of QBs.  In 2021, I was not thrilled about Lance or Wilson, stated (and I was blasted on this board--it hurt my feelings) that Mac Jones was perhaps better.  I wanted Fields. 

Hooker: " Hooker completed 70 percent of his passes during his 2022 season for 3,135 yards, 27 touchdowns and two interceptions. He also recorded 430 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. Hooker tore an ACL" (Walter Football), and will probably need a year.  Now that means he would be about 26 years old before he could play football.  Many see that as a negative. I don't.  A mature QB between the ages of 26-29 on a first contract?  The second contract would cover years 30-34, so you still get him for 8 years.  How long did we have Cam (from his rookie season to the last effective season)?  Hooker beat Bama.  Hooker made Tennessee relevant.

I am almost of the mindset to wait and take Herndon Hooker at the end of round 2 (let him develop for a season as he rehabs)

Tune: Want a QB in this draft that has a lot of similarities to Purdy?  Clayton Tune from Houston.  He is 6-3, 220, and nothing really jumps off the charts at you.  However, "Tune enjoyed an excellent senior year, racking up a lot of production and putting up a lot of points for the Cougars. In 2022, he completed 67 percent of his passes for 4,061 yards, 40 touchdowns and 10 interceptions....He will enter the next level with a lot of starting experience because he broke into the starting lineup during the 2019 season. Tune played well in 2021 too, completing 68 percent of his passes for 3,546 yards, 30 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. " Some team sources say they are not high on Tune. (Walter Football)

So in two seasons, and that is a lot of experience, He has 70 TDs and 20 interceptions.  How are Levis and Richardson expected to be drafted 130 picks earlier?  I don't get it.  Was it the system--maybe--but if that were the easy answer, wouldn't everyone run that system?

I might even draft both QBs in this Draft--Hooker in round 2 or 3, and Tune on day 3.

100% agree with you and Smitty.  Greg Olsen also alluded to this thinking during the SF/Dallas broadcast.  Greg basically said that there are not enough QB's out there with 4 years of playing experience.  QB's transfer so often, or if they show out then get out to maximize on their draft status.  A guy like Billy Zappe is a perfect example.  He has not had the same level of success as Brock Purdy, but I could easily see him develop into a mid level QB that could thrive with weapons around him.

The NFL is going to come to an adjustment in regards to the QB position over the next few years as the older more established QB's retire or move on.  Eli Manning played for 3 full seasons, Peyton played 4, Big Ben 3 seasons, Phillip Rivers 4 seasons, Tom Brady 4 seasons, Andrew Luck 3 seasons, and Drew Breese 3 years.  All of them played significant amounts during their college years.  They learned how to be leaders, adjust to different personnel, and handle the ups and downs of being the face of a team.  One year starters, or guys based upon metrics alone don't have those qualities.  

I love all of the tools that AR-15 has, but I wouldn't sped a 1st round pick to HOPE that in two years he is ready when I could land an established player who will be on my team and contribute for possibly 5 years with that pick.  Fitty was correct in saying that either every year, or every other year you should be drafting a QB in the later rounds to develop.  One of the reasons I am holding out high hopes for Matt Corral.  4 years of college, 3 as a starter.  He was a competitor, a leader, and with GOOD COACHING, will hopefully, learn how to adjust to NFL defenses. 

I like Young and Stroud as prospects.  Stroud being the number 1  that Georgia game exemplified how his experience has helped him flourish.  Yes CJ only started two seasons, but he was on the team in 2020 and couldn't help that the season was cancelled.  Young is just too small for my liking.  Look at the beating Tua has taken.  He has one inch and 30lbs on Young.  Baker is one inch taller and has nearly 30lbs on Young.

Tune, Hooker, O'Connell, and Jaren Hall all could be worth a draft pick, and honestly, may not be all that far behind the top 2 QB's in term of long term development and value.

[Sgt Schultz]

1 hour ago, MHS831 said:

Smitty is right--when 50% of first round picks (approx.) bust,  why hire scouts?  I have said what he said about a first rounder--he gets 3 years to "prove it" where a kid that should need 3 years, a seventh rounder, is cut during preseason. 

I kept mocking Purdy to us last year--so I am pissed off.

This also makes me worry about the four first round QBs in this year's draft.

Young:  Alabama has a great OL and good WRs.  Still, his size makes him questionable, but he will be a first rounder and he will have 3 years to prove it.  He weighs 185 lbs, and that is scary.

Stroud:  He has all the tools.  Perfect modern NFL QB.  Is that not what they said about Fields and Haskins?  Did the best Ohio State QB ever not sit the bench and transfer to LSU?  Name a great Ohio State QB.  I'll wait over here.

Levis:  Another with all the tools.  Where was the productivity over his college career?  In 2 years as the KY Wildcats QB, he threw 23 interceptions.  Is that expected to improve in the NFL?

Richardson:  A stud athlete, and there is a lot to like, but he completed less that 60% of his passes and threw for 17 TDs vs. 9 Interceptions.  He is a dual threat, but is he really a top 15 player?  He will need some work.

Therefore, I am not impressed with this group of QBs.  In 2021, I was not thrilled about Lance or Wilson, stated (and I was blasted on this board--it hurt my feelings) that Mac Jones was perhaps better.  I wanted Fields. 

Hooker: " Hooker completed 70 percent of his passes during his 2022 season for 3,135 yards, 27 touchdowns and two interceptions. He also recorded 430 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. Hooker tore an ACL" (Walter Football), and will probably need a year.  Now that means he would be about 26 years old before he could play football.  Many see that as a negative. I don't.  A mature QB between the ages of 26-29 on a first contract?  The second contract would cover years 30-34, so you still get him for 8 years.  How long did we have Cam (from his rookie season to the last effective season)?  Hooker beat Bama.  Hooker made Tennessee relevant.

I am almost of the mindset to wait and take Herndon Hooker at the end of round 2 (let him develop for a season as he rehabs)

Tune: Want a QB in this draft that has a lot of similarities to Purdy?  Clayton Tune from Houston.  He is 6-3, 220, and nothing really jumps off the charts at you.  However, "Tune enjoyed an excellent senior year, racking up a lot of production and putting up a lot of points for the Cougars. In 2022, he completed 67 percent of his passes for 4,061 yards, 40 touchdowns and 10 interceptions....He will enter the next level with a lot of starting experience because he broke into the starting lineup during the 2019 season. Tune played well in 2021 too, completing 68 percent of his passes for 3,546 yards, 30 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. " Some team sources say they are not high on Tune. (Walter Football)

So in two seasons, and that is a lot of experience, He has 70 TDs and 20 interceptions.  How are Levis and Richardson expected to be drafted 130 picks earlier?  I don't get it.  Was it the system--maybe--but if that were the easy answer, wouldn't everyone run that system?

I might even draft both QBs in this Draft--Hooker in round 2 or 3, and Tune on day 3.

Thanks for sharing.

For whatever reason, I have paid a lot of attention to Hooker.  Not in the first round (even if we traded down or somehow wound up with multiple first round picks), but with SF's 2nd or 3rd.....why not?  He may be a product of the system he played in, or he may not recover well from the ACL.  But, there are a lot of "yeah, buts" associated with QBs and the number and risk are weighed in to where they are selected in the draft.  His age does not worry me, either.  I see maturity, too, and unless his ACL is a chronic problem or we get him killed (our OL is better, but we have a recent history of having to give QBs hazardous duty pay), he could realistically play 10 years. 

I don't know squat about Tune.  But, given our QB room is one person right now (who we have no real observations on because of the way he was mishandled last preseason), I could see us drafting a pair.

I'm not as sour on Stroud as many, but I also don't know that he will be available.  OSU does not have a reputation for supplying great NFL QBs, but that is true of pretty much any college program.  It is pretty much a crap shoot, but like you (I think), I like seeing good completion percentages and relatively few interceptions. 

I think we still need a vet while we evaluate/develop this group.  I'm not looking for gold (and probably winding up with pyrite), but we need somebody to start in September.  Unless we can get Stroud (or similar) and we are convinced we can start them without ensuring their failure, we need somebody. 

But, those are my views.  The new staff should be the driving force in all those decisions, not some clown ignoring a Zoom meeting in New Mexico (me).

Edited January 26, 2023 by Sgt Schultz

[MHS831]

38 minutes ago, SCO96 said:

Good post. I think the main problems is with how the "pundits" evaluate QB's. We assume someone is a first rounder because the evaluation people say they are. They may not really have 1st round talent. Remember how Mel Kiper Jr was all in on Jimmy Clauson being a 1st round pick? Back in 1978 Joe Montana was viewed as a 3rd round talent. Tony Romo and Kurt Warner weren't even drafted which means the pundits didn't think they were worth drafting. How did the above scenarios turn out.

In reality, some QB's are overrated draft prospects, and some QB's are underrated prospects.

There have been 112 starting Super Bowl QBs in the 56 Super Bowls to date.  28 of them (25% or 1 in 4) were drafted after round 5.  Of course, Brady helps this statistic.  Only 57 of the 112 (51%) were first round selections when they were drafted. That means that 49% of all Super Bowl QBs starting for their teams were not first rounders. 

[Icege]

Smitty talking up Max Duggan got me like

[Panthers Fan 69]

17 hours ago, The Huddler said:

Brock will return to the backup QB role

 

I'll give him credit with his leadership, poise, and running that system..   but hes a system QB.   He probably has the best Coach/System and Supporting cast in the last 10 years.  He doesnt make mistakes, but hitting wide open guys off of a playaction pass because they are schemed open so well is a pure luxery. If they dont win the Superbowl, they will for sure back to Lance.  Thats why they drafted lance and moved off the system QB to begin with. 

 

If Lance gets a chance to start again and if he develops and pans out like Shannahan envisioned we are looking at an absolute instoppable dynasty. 

 

no way they trade lance or not give him a chance at the gig. Brock is doing fine but hes got to be the most insulated QB of all time. Elite Coaching/Scheming and supporting cast. 

In all fairness. Lance stinks.  When he got a chance to play he was terrible. Purdy is that teams future. Not Lance. 

[NCBlu]

The problem I see is people get caught up in just take a QB any QB if he is the 1st rnd he must be good. Then history proves other wise.

I think QB is the hardest spot to play and bad teams pick at the top of drafts and they don't have the time to wait and end up rushing a guy even if he not ready. Mite be why so many bust.

Like I have said give me a QB that looks good on a bad team that will show more how they can handle not just always having the better college team around him and he probably won't be a 1st rnd QB.

[panthersphan]

Per Smitty's Instagram

"Great job panthers and Congrats Frank Reich"

 

Agent 89 is on board...no reason you all shouldn't be either.

[glenwo2]

20 hours ago, Krovvy said:

I wish we had a system for a quarterback to play in.

We did have a system :

Snap the ball, then run for your life.

 

[CPantherKing]

20 hours ago, onmyown said:

Circumstantial and luck. Statistically, first round qbs are more successful. There is no point here. You going to compare Hurts, Wilson, Brady, Carr, Prescott and now Purdy to basically all qbs taken in the first for the past twenty years?

Because that’s what this is implying, and we don’t even know if Hurts and Purdy are long term. Those are the only good qbs I can think of after round 1 in a long time. There are probably a few more over that period but it won’t compare to the first rounders. Take out round two and those numbers are almost non existent.

I get his point though, especially about scouts being lazy, but given how few franchise qbs go after round one or even round two, that’d take a poo lots of time to try and find/scout, like a needle in a haystack.

High rounds (1,2) still offer your best bet.

This is a myth. Always focused on QBs that talking heads whisper in our ear about while they are average at best. Meanwhile, we forget about the quarterbacks having more success but never being talked about in the media.

Anyone who paid attention knew about Purdy and saw how well he performed in games post collegiate showcase games.

I doubt very few people could list 57 first round QBs who have won in the playoffs over the past 57 seasons. I know no one could list 90.

[Mike2.0]

On 1/25/2023 at 11:37 PM, The Huddler said:

Brock will return to the backup QB role

 

I'll give him credit with his leadership, poise, and running that system..   but hes a system QB.   He probably has the best Coach/System and Supporting cast in the last 10 years.  He doesnt make mistakes, but hitting wide open guys off of a playaction pass because they are schemed open so well is a pure luxery. If they dont win the Superbowl, they will for sure back to Lance.  Thats why they drafted lance and moved off the system QB to begin with. 

 

If Lance gets a chance to start again and if he develops and pans out like Shannahan envisioned we are looking at an absolute instoppable dynasty. 

 

no way they trade lance or not give him a chance at the gig. Brock is doing fine but hes got to be the most insulated QB of all time. Elite Coaching/Scheming and supporting cast. 

Trey Lance would give them an athletic upgrade. When he played a full season in college he rushed for over a thousand yards in addition to his passing. So he’s give them a dual threat that Purdy doesn’t; however, Lance doesn’t read the field anywhere near as well as Purdy does. As a passer, Lance is significantly behind Purdy, and while he betters Purdy athletically and in arm strength, those two factors don’t make him a guaranteed upgrade. 

The 49ers have reached the conference championship with Purdy. He’s played really well and deserved the chance to start for them. There’s no reason to go back to Lance. Trade him, move on.