Agent 89 on Brock Purdy and 1st Round QBs

[Icege]

From the latest "Cut To It" podcast covering the DAL/SF game:

I've watched a couple of episodes over the last few weeks and enjoyed them so far. Looking fwd to checking out this one!

Edited January 25, 2023 by Icege

[kungfoodude]

9 minutes ago, Icege said:

From the latest "Cut To It" podcast covering the DAL/SF game:

I've watched a couple of episodes over the last few weeks and enjoyed them so far. Looking fwd to checking out this one!

Lol. In fairness, keep in mind that Steve Smith still has a chip on his shoulder about his scouting evaluation. Not saying he doesn't have a point but he also might be more than a little biased. 

[The Huddler]

Brock will return to the backup QB role

 

I'll give him credit with his leadership, poise, and running that system..   but hes a system QB.   He probably has the best Coach/System and Supporting cast in the last 10 years.  He doesnt make mistakes, but hitting wide open guys off of a playaction pass because they are schemed open so well is a pure luxery. If they dont win the Superbowl, they will for sure back to Lance.  Thats why they drafted lance and moved off the system QB to begin with. 

 

If Lance gets a chance to start again and if he develops and pans out like Shannahan envisioned we are looking at an absolute instoppable dynasty. 

 

no way they trade lance or not give him a chance at the gig. Brock is doing fine but hes got to be the most insulated QB of all time. Elite Coaching/Scheming and supporting cast. 

[Carolina Cajun]

3 minutes ago, The Huddler said:

Brock will return to the backup QB role

 

I'll give him credit with his leadership, poise, and running that system..   but hes a system QB.   He probably has the best Coach/System and Supporting cast in the last 10 years.  He doesnt make mistakes, but hitting wide open guys off of a playaction pass because they are schemed open so well is a pure luxery. If they dont win the Superbowl, they will for sure back to Lance.  Thats why they drafted lance and moved off the system QB to begin with. 

 

If Lance gets a chance to start again and if he develops and pans out like Shannahan envisioned we are looking at an absolute instoppable dynasty. 

 

no way they trade lance or not give him a chance at the gig. Brock is doing fine but hes got to be the most insulated QB of all time. Elite Coaching/Scheming and supporting cast. 

yea hes a system QB right now, but so was Tom Brady.  People forget that he wasn't asked to do poo his first couple years, just manage the game and let the defense and run game control the game.  The thing is if you get a system QB and let him develop and learn in game all while still winning, then you absolutely do that.

[Wundrbread33]

12 minutes ago, The Huddler said:

Brock will return to the backup QB role

 

I'll give him credit with his leadership, poise, and running that system..   but hes a system QB.   He probably has the best Coach/System and Supporting cast in the last 10 years.  He doesnt make mistakes, but hitting wide open guys off of a playaction pass because they are schemed open so well is a pure luxery. If they dont win the Superbowl, they will for sure back to Lance.  Thats why they drafted lance and moved off the system QB to begin with. 

 

If Lance gets a chance to start again and if he develops and pans out like Shannahan envisioned we are looking at an absolute instoppable dynasty. 

 

no way they trade lance or not give him a chance at the gig. Brock is doing fine but hes got to be the most insulated QB of all time. Elite Coaching/Scheming and supporting cast. 

If by “system QB” you mean “not as physically gifted as Lance” than sure.

 

But if he keeps winning, and keeps distributing and making the right decisions…well that’s the whole point of the position right?

 

Sunk cost in Lance will, but shouldn’t, influence who starts in the future, particularly if Purdy ends up being a better NFL quarterback.

[Khyber53]

24 minutes ago, The Huddler said:

Brock will return to the backup QB role

 

I'll give him credit with his leadership, poise, and running that system..   but hes a system QB.   He probably has the best Coach/System and Supporting cast in the last 10 years.  He doesnt make mistakes, but hitting wide open guys off of a playaction pass because they are schemed open so well is a pure luxery. If they dont win the Superbowl, they will for sure back to Lance.  Thats why they drafted lance and moved off the system QB to begin with. 

 

If Lance gets a chance to start again and if he develops and pans out like Shannahan envisioned we are looking at an absolute instoppable dynasty. 

 

no way they trade lance or not give him a chance at the gig. Brock is doing fine but hes got to be the most insulated QB of all time. Elite Coaching/Scheming and supporting cast. 

Gimme a system QB who hits the open receiver and keeps the game rolling with few to no mistakes and commands the respect of his teammates not by salary but by deed.

The kid is good and might become great in time. Don't knock him because he isn't a first rounder.

[TJKJ23xx]

A system QB in a good system is better than a QB with all the tangibles and talent in the world in a solid to mediocre one. Ask Herbert and Allen how their talent has equated to a conference championship appearance. 

[Jon Snow]

37 minutes ago, Wundrbread33 said:

If by “system QB” you mean “not as physically gifted as Lance” than sure.

 

But if he keeps winning, and keeps distributing and making the right decisions…well that’s the whole point of the position right?

 

Sunk cost in Lance will, but shouldn’t, influence who starts in the future, particularly if Purdy ends up being a better NFL quarterback.

I would gladly take Purdy off their hands. Lance is a bust for what they gave for him. I would take Purdy over him and never look back.

[Krovvy]

I wish we had a system for a quarterback to play in.

[RumHam]

3 hours ago, The Huddler said:

Brock will return to the backup QB role

 

I'll give him credit with his leadership, poise, and running that system..   but hes a system QB.   He probably has the best Coach/System and Supporting cast in the last 10 years.  He doesnt make mistakes, but hitting wide open guys off of a playaction pass because they are schemed open so well is a pure luxery. If they dont win the Superbowl, they will for sure back to Lance.  Thats why they drafted lance and moved off the system QB to begin with. 

 

If Lance gets a chance to start again and if he develops and pans out like Shannahan envisioned we are looking at an absolute instoppable dynasty. 

 

no way they trade lance or not give him a chance at the gig. Brock is doing fine but hes got to be the most insulated QB of all time. Elite Coaching/Scheming and supporting cast. 

If they win the super bowl he absolutely wont

[X-Clown]

4 hours ago, TJKJ23xx said:

A system QB in a good system is better than a QB with all the tangibles and talent in the world in a solid to mediocre one. Ask Herbert and Allen how their talent has equated to a conference championship appearance. 

I’m sure there’s no way that Herbert or Allen could possibly have made the conference championship in SFs system in the NFC. They just don’t have the smarts and aren’t gamers like Purdy is.

[onmyown]

Circumstantial and luck. Statistically, first round qbs are more successful. There is no point here. You going to compare Hurts, Wilson, Brady, Carr, Prescott and now Purdy to basically all qbs taken in the first for the past twenty years?

Because that’s what this is implying, and we don’t even know if Hurts and Purdy are long term. Those are the only good qbs I can think of after round 1 in a long time. There are probably a few more over that period but it won’t compare to the first rounders. Take out round two and those numbers are almost non existent.

I get his point though, especially about scouts being lazy, but given how few franchise qbs go after round one or even round two, that’d take a poo lots of time to try and find/scout, like a needle in a haystack.

High rounds (1,2) still offer your best bet.

[MHS831]

17 hours ago, Icege said:

From the latest "Cut To It" podcast covering the DAL/SF game:

I've watched a couple of episodes over the last few weeks and enjoyed them so far. Looking fwd to checking out this one!

Smitty is right--when 50% of first round picks (approx.) bust,  why hire scouts?  I have said what he said about a first rounder--he gets 3 years to "prove it" where a kid that should need 3 years, a seventh rounder, is cut during preseason. 

I kept mocking Purdy to us last year--so I am pissed off.

This also makes me worry about the four first round QBs in this year's draft.

Young:  Alabama has a great OL and good WRs.  Still, his size makes him questionable, but he will be a first rounder and he will have 3 years to prove it.  He weighs 185 lbs, and that is scary.

Stroud:  He has all the tools.  Perfect modern NFL QB.  Is that not what they said about Fields and Haskins?  Did the best Ohio State QB ever not sit the bench and transfer to LSU?  Name a great Ohio State QB.  I'll wait over here.

Levis:  Another with all the tools.  Where was the productivity over his college career?  In 2 years as the KY Wildcats QB, he threw 23 interceptions.  Is that expected to improve in the NFL?

Richardson:  A stud athlete, and there is a lot to like, but he completed less that 60% of his passes and threw for 17 TDs vs. 9 Interceptions.  He is a dual threat, but is he really a top 15 player?  He will need some work.

Therefore, I am not impressed with this group of QBs.  In 2021, I was not thrilled about Lance or Wilson, stated (and I was blasted on this board--it hurt my feelings) that Mac Jones was perhaps better.  I wanted Fields. 

Hooker: " Hooker completed 70 percent of his passes during his 2022 season for 3,135 yards, 27 touchdowns and two interceptions. He also recorded 430 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. Hooker tore an ACL" (Walter Football), and will probably need a year.  Now that means he would be about 26 years old before he could play football.  Many see that as a negative. I don't.  A mature QB between the ages of 26-29 on a first contract?  The second contract would cover years 30-34, so you still get him for 8 years.  How long did we have Cam (from his rookie season to the last effective season)?  Hooker beat Bama.  Hooker made Tennessee relevant.

I am almost of the mindset to wait and take Herndon Hooker at the end of round 2 (let him develop for a season as he rehabs)

Tune: Want a QB in this draft that has a lot of similarities to Purdy?  Clayton Tune from Houston.  He is 6-3, 220, and nothing really jumps off the charts at you.  However, "Tune enjoyed an excellent senior year, racking up a lot of production and putting up a lot of points for the Cougars. In 2022, he completed 67 percent of his passes for 4,061 yards, 40 touchdowns and 10 interceptions....He will enter the next level with a lot of starting experience because he broke into the starting lineup during the 2019 season. Tune played well in 2021 too, completing 68 percent of his passes for 3,546 yards, 30 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. " Some team sources say they are not high on Tune. (Walter Football)

So in two seasons, and that is a lot of experience, He has 70 TDs and 20 interceptions.  How are Levis and Richardson expected to be drafted 130 picks earlier?  I don't get it.  Was it the system--maybe--but if that were the easy answer, wouldn't everyone run that system?

I might even draft both QBs in this Draft--Hooker in round 2 or 3, and Tune on day 3.

[MHS831]

Interesting Research:

The "Bust Rate" for QBs picked #1 overall is 40%

The "Bust Rate" for QBs selected in the first round with picks 2-5 is 75%.

The "Bust Rate" for QBs selected in the first round with picks 6-20 is 50%

https://thedraftnetwork.com/qb-success-rate-by-draft-position-2021-nfl-draft/

That would suggest that if you do not have the first overall selection (and probably there is a clear overall favorite, like Trevor Lawrence or Cam Newton), trading up into the top 2-5 is what desperate teams do to grab a QB.  In my mind, the Panthers may do this.