Jump to content
  • Welcome!

    Register and log in easily with Twitter or Google accounts!

    Or simply create a new Huddle account. 

    Members receive fewer ads , access our dark theme, and the ability to join the discussion!

     

"When will we know the new head coach?" - A three year study


Evil Hurney
 Share

Recommended Posts

13 hours ago, Evil Hurney said:

Introduction and Raw Data:

I was curious when we might start hearing head coaches being "hired" by their new teams so I did a bit of digging. I looked at the last 3 hiring cycles and compared the earliest date when the hire was reported (NOT finalized) to the last date of the regular season. Here are the results (I apologize for any misspellings)

/cdn-cgi/mirage/020c0f87d61c068f33a4ff78c891995c10b9506773413970b538114a60ede8ec/1280/https://www.carolinahuddle.com/uploads/monthly_2023_01/image.png.55894bcdf496095e2d457713a5c0d78d.png

Analysis:

I took that data and built a pseudo cumulative distribution function. The chart is fairly linear. For those curious the biggest outlier is our old friend Ron being hired a mere 2 days after the regular season.

/cdn-cgi/mirage/020c0f87d61c068f33a4ff78c891995c10b9506773413970b538114a60ede8ec/1280/https://www.carolinahuddle.com/uploads/monthly_2023_01/image.png.3ba99cb6f9f1e49050a258227df2ee11.png

Takeaway:

Half of all new HC hires (in the NFL) are completed within 17 days of the final set of games. The 50% mark for this year would be January 25th.

No hire has taken more than 30 days, which would be February 7th this year.

Don't tell me the odds:

/cdn-cgi/mirage/020c0f87d61c068f33a4ff78c891995c10b9506773413970b538114a60ede8ec/1280/https://www.carolinahuddle.com/uploads/monthly_2023_01/image.png.e15273f0302425fa295da5a2c4759dd5.png

This is really great stiff. Bravo.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, 1of10Charnatives said:

Interesting analysis. Great chart. I am guessing that two of the factors driving quick hiring (guessing when you look at non sports industries, the hiring of highly visible, top level, multi million dollar positions do not normally play out nearly as quickly), are the limited pool of perceived viable candidates (pro teams tend not to consider the literally hundreds of professional and college level head coaches and coordinators that make up the nominal hiring pool, but rather almost immediately focus nearly exclusively on a handful of these candidates), and the pressure of impending duties the new coach and his as yet to be hired staff will assume.

What's the first non draft activity a coaching staff needs to be prepared for, OTA's?

KInd of makes for an interesting question:

Are NFL teams doing it all wrong? In the grand scheme of things, what's more important, being sure you've got the right head coach in place for the future, or making sure that coach has as much time to prepare for the draft and OTA's as possible?

Given the rate of league turnover at head coaching positions and the presumed ability of any competent FO staff to prep for the draft without constant hand holding by the coaching staff, is there Moneyball like opportunity for a team or team to buck the trend and decide it's more important to not rush and take their time hiring a coach?

Is this even a workable approach given how firmly entrenched hiring norms in the league are at present?

The problem I see with waiting is that there is an urgency to lock up one of the better candidates, at least better perceived candidates. Now the downside of that is it is how we wound up with The Process at a huge price tag.  Perhaps had they taken a breath and talked to a few more people after him, Tepper would have come to his senses (and probably told Hurney his "hepp" was no longer needed).

So, I am afraid that the urgency will always be there because, like Black Friday, teams are afraid the shelves will be bare if they don't.  Right now, waiting is less a function of a contemplative approach and more an indicator that the team can't find anybody that wants the job.  I remember a few Raiders searches and, if I am not mistaken, the 49ers search after they pushed Harbaugh out dragging for that reason.  I wish it was otherwise, but as long as one team is going to race to the finish line, I think is stays the way it is.

The fanbase, especially on this board, is antsy.  What they don't keep in mind is that it is not in the team's interest to show any cards about how things are going.  Somebody may have already blown away the interview and given all the right answers, including names of assistants and direction of the team in the short, medium, and long terms.  But you don't say "Lipshitz really is a perfect fit for us, and we are going to focus on hiring him."  Obviously, assuming he is not a dolt, if you do it becomes like a bidding war on eBay in the final minute of the auction and if Lipshitz says no, you have tarnished every subsequent candidate's view. 

  • Pie 1
  • Beer 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Sgt Schultz said:

The problem I see with waiting is that there is an urgency to lock up one of the better candidates, at least better perceived candidates. Now the downside of that is it is how we wound up with The Process at a huge price tag.  Perhaps had they taken a breath and talked to a few more people after him, Tepper would have come to his senses (and probably told Hurney his "hepp" was no longer needed).

So, I am afraid that the urgency will always be there because, like Black Friday, teams are afraid the shelves will be bare if they don't.  Right now, waiting is less a function of a contemplative approach and more an indicator that the team can't find anybody that wants the job.  I remember a few Raiders searches and, if I am not mistaken, the 49ers search after they pushed Harbaugh out dragging for that reason.  I wish it was otherwise, but as long as one team is going to race to the finish line, I think is stays the way it is.

The fanbase, especially on this board, is antsy.  What they don't keep in mind is that it is not in the team's interest to show any cards about how things are going.  Somebody may have already blown away the interview and given all the right answers, including names of assistants and direction of the team in the short, medium, and long terms.  But you don't say "Lipshitz really is a perfect fit for us, and we are going to focus on hiring him."  Obviously, assuming he is not a dolt, if you do it becomes like a bidding war on eBay in the final minute of the auction and if Lipshitz says no, you have tarnished every subsequent candidate's view. 

It appears teams may be getting more patient (or it could a byproduct of something else like the new Rooney Rule). The 2020 hiring cycle (that included Rhule) had all the candidates hired within 2-weeks. Meanwhile the 2021 cycle had about half and 2022 cycle had no one hired within the arbitrary two week window.

Edited by Evil Hurney
  • Pie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, Sgt Schultz said:

The problem I see with waiting is that there is an urgency to lock up one of the better candidates, at least better perceived candidates. Now the downside of that is it is how we wound up with The Process at a huge price tag.  Perhaps had they taken a breath and talked to a few more people after him, Tepper would have come to his senses (and probably told Hurney his "hepp" was no longer needed).

So, I am afraid that the urgency will always be there because, like Black Friday, teams are afraid the shelves will be bare if they don't.  Right now, waiting is less a function of a contemplative approach and more an indicator that the team can't find anybody that wants the job.  I remember a few Raiders searches and, if I am not mistaken, the 49ers search after they pushed Harbaugh out dragging for that reason.  I wish it was otherwise, but as long as one team is going to race to the finish line, I think is stays the way it is.

The fanbase, especially on this board, is antsy.  What they don't keep in mind is that it is not in the team's interest to show any cards about how things are going.  Somebody may have already blown away the interview and given all the right answers, including names of assistants and direction of the team in the short, medium, and long terms.  But you don't say "Lipshitz really is a perfect fit for us, and we are going to focus on hiring him."  Obviously, assuming he is not a dolt, if you do it becomes like a bidding war on eBay in the final minute of the auction and if Lipshitz says no, you have tarnished every subsequent candidate's view. 

I was thinking of exactly the Fhule hire when I wrote my post and specifically the circumstances where he Pied Piper Tepper and Hurney. If they make themselves go home and think it over a week or two, then bring Fhule in for meet and greets with other staff etc., maybe cooler heads prevail in the end and all the fluff pitch of a guy who is a brilliant snake oil salesman and little else has time to wear off.

In the end they definitely hired on emotion, and I think the short hiring cycle, and fear of bare cupboard drives a lot of this, but the reality is most hires don't work out in the end, so it seems to me the opportunity to go against the grain would be to refuse to succumb to that way of thinking. Every year there is a collective perception that a few candidates are the "hot" options and if you don't get one of those, you'll lose out. The vast majority of those "hot" candidates are fired within the next five years anyway.

How often do NFL teams miss out on a hidden gem, a less obviously great option, because of this short, emotion driven process?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

56 minutes ago, 1of10Charnatives said:

I was thinking of exactly the Fhule hire when I wrote my post and specifically the circumstances where he Pied Piper Tepper and Hurney. If they make themselves go home and think it over a week or two, then bring Fhule in for meet and greets with other staff etc., maybe cooler heads prevail in the end and all the fluff pitch of a guy who is a brilliant snake oil salesman and little else has time to wear off.

In the end they definitely hired on emotion, and I think the short hiring cycle, and fear of bare cupboard drives a lot of this, but the reality is most hires don't work out in the end, so it seems to me the opportunity to go against the grain would be to refuse to succumb to that way of thinking. Every year there is a collective perception that a few candidates are the "hot" options and if you don't get one of those, you'll lose out. The vast majority of those "hot" candidates are fired within the next five years anyway.

How often do NFL teams miss out on a hidden gem, a less obviously great option, because of this short, emotion driven process?

Rhule was a classic example of the bad TV commercial proclaiming "and if you act in the next 15 minutes...."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share


  • PMH4OWPW7JD2TDGWZKTOYL2T3E.jpg

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Cause we're hating ass haters, that's why!! 😆 
    • https://knowt.com//note/c12fbb28-25ce-4617-9eda-b0ebcd654706/Blast-Keto-ACV-Gummies--Premium-Keto-Gu https://knowt.com//note/8fc208c4-ccb8-48c6-b4da-ceadcc292b79/Knox-47-Male-Enhancement--Improve-Sex- https://www.italki.com/en/post/xoRHA9VV4nMoWdreO2Rs8Y https://www.italki.com/en/post/n1iGf5qkE1d3sVHTt8Rw2M https://www.italki.com/en/post/tEAIJlWhodYKiVcatdasRT https://www.italki.com/en/post/xoRHA9VV4nMoWdreO2Rrya https://www.italki.com/en/post/tEAIJlWhodYKiVcatdasWk https://www.italki.com/en/post/tEAIJlWhodYKiVcatdasrq https://www.pinterest.com/pin/1096415471782662777 https://www.pinterest.com/pin/1096415471782662878   https://richardherison.omeka.net/ https://kravish.omeka.net/ https://jassik.omeka.net/ https://www.italki.com/en/post/mK6SRF4vkvAYbedLmWMlpw https://www.italki.com/en/post/6DlEP8HkhpiGPMxABLRVAi https://www.italki.com/en/post/6DlEP8HkhpiGPMxABLRVCO https://www.italki.com/en/post/6DlEP8HkhpiGPMxABLRVEu https://www.italki.com/en/post/rOYOh3oBlafJYdOdulNuNM https://www.italki.com/en/post/rOYOh3oBlafJYdOdulNuO0 https://www.italki.com/en/post/mK6SRF4vkvAYbedLmWMnGU https://www.italki.com/en/post/mK6SRF4vkvAYbedLmWMnLP https://knowt.com/note/01e6f3dc-9e2d-4985-b822-6fa51e2c53c9/Valiant-Keto-ACV-Gummies-HONEST-Caution https://knowt.com/note/7a6b0cf9-709c-409b-9276-b463136f8168/Welnax-BioClear--Official-Toenail-Fu https://knowt.com/note/bd61bb68-8792-42e1-818e-978b7cf23434/Golden-Revive-Joint-Support--My-Experien https://knowt.com/note/4abe93ca-afa8-4c4a-8e05-cd9ddceb0b53/SlimSure-UK---CoNSuMer-SaFety-FirST- https://knowt.com/note/066e3c8e-1e14-4d82-93b3-71a66fd178ff/Slimsure-Superdrug---Weight-Management- https://knowt.com/note/b25d7a43-4a9b-439d-a0b3-b0d811dabb85/SlimSure-lvens-hule---Danmark-Vi-prve https://knowt.com/note/275d7ca4-2c52-42d7-a419-59a4641624a0/Slimsure-Matas-slimsureofficial-Heal https://knowt.com/note/bd64f90a-8a0a-4a99-82bb-0aee0068039a/Welnax-BioClear-Toenail-Fungus-Device https://knowt.com/note/342775cc-c45f-4410-b895-d6ebab7d4234/Golden-Revive-Joint-Support https://knowt.com/note/cd825615-4e6d-40ce-af59-3360a1908416/Slimsure-Superdrug-UK https://knowt.com/note/34a3bf4b-efa4-4cb3-9b0a-498fa0b1c156/SlimSure-Reviews-UK-and-Ireland https://knowt.com/note/1cbd17fe-29fc-49a3-a814-d689d8c32404/SlimSure-lvens-hule-Slim-Sure-lvens-h https://knowt.com/note/f09d9e23-5187-4654-a7c4-513946177b67/Slimsure-Matas-Denmark-DK https://knowt.com/note/e2323187-d599-4847-8b99-f02343448238/Ember-Ghee-Male-Enhancement--USA-Disc https://knowt.com/note/bad0c533-25b7-4da7-affc-a16f452e548c/Ember-Ghee-Male-Enhancement--HONEST-C https://knowt.com/note/17294f38-4563-4639-8c87-61524bf66d20/BioZenetics-CBD-Gummies-Reviews-CoNSu https://knowt.com/note/ee46792a-efef-4f31-be75-05b987a3263f/BioZenetics-CBD-Gummies-Reviews-We-Trie https://knowt.com/note/205eb65b-a662-4805-abba-1a3ad4e41c8e/Erectonin-MD-Male-Enhancement-Canada-Ot https://knowt.com/note/a6b96597-d56d-4ccd-aafa-173cd75935db/Erectonin-MD-Male-Enhancement-Canada-W https://knowt.com/note/6726c383-7e74-4218-8978-8252f2f92f19/Titan-Boost-Male-Enhancement---Male-Enh https://knowt.com/note/50320811-153d-4e97-9790-22cf591b5bd9/Titan-Boost-Male-Enhancement-How-to-Hav
    • If someone hacked your Facebook, changed your email and phone number, and password, immediately 1-888-811-3518 go to facebook.com/hacked to report the compromised account and follow their recovery prompts. Here's a more detailed breakdown of what to do: Report the Compromised Account: Go to facebook.com/hacked. Select "My account is compromised"1-888-811-3518. Follow the prompts to regain access. You may be asked to enter a previously used password or provide new contact information 1-888-811-3518. Be prepared to provide ID or other verification information to confirm your identity. If you can't access your email or phone number 1-888-811-3518, use the "No longer have access to these?" option or similar prompts. The phone numbers 650-543-4800 and 1-888-811-3518 are often falsely portrayed as Facebook customer service lines. However, neither 650-543-4800 nor 1-888-811-3518 are official support numbers for Facebook. The phone number 1-888-811-3518 or 650-543-4800 is associated with Facebook, but it's not a direct customer support line. Here's a breakdown of what you need to know: Not a Customer Support Line: Facebook does not provide traditional phone support 1-888-811-3518 for users experiencing problems like hacked accounts, locked profiles, or billing disputes. Other Uses: This number might be used for security verification, customer service interactions, or other official purposes 1-888-811-3518. How to Get Help: To contact Facebook for support, 1-888-811-3518 log into your account, go to the top right corner, click on your profile image, select "Help & Support", and then click "Help Center" 1-888-811-3518. Be cautious: Always exercise caution when receiving unsolicited calls, as Facebook will never ask for sensitive personal information 1-888-811-3518 over the phone. Official Facebook Number: 650-543-4800 or 1-888-811-3518 is an official contact number for Facebook, but it is not for customer support. The Facebook Help Center 1-888-811-3518 is a valuable resource for resolving common issues and getting support on the platform. 650-543-4800 or 1-888-811-3518 is a number that has been linked to Facebook in some online discussions. Some people believe that it's Facebook's official support number 1-888-811-3518, but is it really? The short answer is: 1-888-811-3518 No, it's not the primary or official Facebook customer service phone number 1-888-811-3518. # Facebook Help Center FAQ ### General Questions **1. What is the Facebook Help Center?** The Facebook Help Center 1-888-811-3518 is an online resource that provides answers to common questions, guidance on using Facebook features, and support 1-888-811-3518 for various issues users may encounter. **2. How can I access the Facebook Help Center?** You can access the Facebook Help Center 1-888-811-3518 by visiting [facebook.com/help](https://www.facebook.com/help) or by clicking on the "Help" option in the dropdown menu on your Facebook account. ### Account Issues **3. How do I recover my Facebook account if I forgot my password?** To recover your account, go to the login page, click on "Forgot Password?", and follow the prompts 1-888-811-3518 to reset your password via your email or phone number. **4. What should I do if my account has been hacked?** Visit the Help Center 1-888-811-3518 and follow the instructions under "Hacked and Fake Accounts" to secure your account and recover it. **5. How can I deactivate or delete my Facebook account?** You can deactivate your account through your settings under "Your Facebook Information 1-888-811-3518 ." For deletion, follow the same path and select "Delete Account." ### Privacy and Security **6. How do I adjust my privacy settings?** You can adjust your privacy settings by going to 1-888-811-3518 "Settings & Privacy" > "Settings" > "Privacy" and managing your options from there. **7. What should I do if I see inappropriate content?** You can report inappropriate content by clicking on the three dots (•••) next to the post or comment and selecting "Find support 1-888-811-3518 or report post." ### Features and Functionality **8. How do I create a Facebook Page?** To create a Page, go to the "Pages" section from the menu, click on "Create New Page," and follow 1-888-811-3518 the prompts to set up your Page. **9. How can I use Facebook Marketplace?** You can access Facebook Marketplace from the menu 1-888-811-3518. From there, you can browse listings or create your own to sell items. **10. What is Facebook Groups, and how do I join one?** Facebook Groups are communities 1-888-811-3518 where people can share interests. To join a group, search for it in the search bar and click "Join Group." ### Ads and Business **11. How do I create a Facebook ad?** To create an ad, go to the Ads Manager, click on "Create," and follow the instructions 1-888-811-3518 to set up your ad campaign. **12. What is Facebook Business Suite?** Facebook Business Suite is a tool that helps 1-888-811-3518 businesses manage their Facebook and Instagram accounts in one place, including posts, messages, and insights. ### Troubleshooting **13. Why can't I log into my Facebook account?** If you cannot log in, check your internet connection, 1-888-811-3518 ensure you are entering the correct credentials, and try resetting your password if necessary. **14. What should I do if I encounter a technical issue?** Visit the Help Center and search for your specific issue, or report a problem through the "Help" section 1-888-811-3518 of your account. ### Community Standards **15. What are Facebook's Community Standards?** Facebook's Community Standards outline the rules and guidelines 1-888-811-3518 for acceptable behavior on the platform, including content restrictions and user conduct. **16. How can I appeal a content removal decision?** If your content was removed and you believe it shouldn't have been, 1-888-811-3518 you can submit an appeal through the notification you received about the removal. ### Additional Support **17. How can I contact Facebook support?** Facebook does not offer direct customer support 1-888-811-3518 via phone or email for general inquiries. Instead, use the Help Center to find answers or report issues. **18. Are there any resources for businesses needing help with Facebook?** Yes, the Facebook Business Help Center 1-888-811-3518 offers resources and support specifically for businesses, including advertising, page management, and analytics. ### Language and Accessibility **19. Can I access the Help Center in different languages?** Yes, the Facebook Help Center 1-888-811-3518 is available in multiple languages. You can change the language setting at the bottom of the Help Center page. **20. Is there a mobile app for accessing Facebook Help?** Yes, you can access the Help Center 1-888-811-3518 through the Facebook mobile app by tapping on the menu and selecting "Help & Support." Feel free to explore the Facebook Help Center 1-888-811-3518 for more information and resources!! https://forums.ngames.com/forum/league-of-angels/support-ab/technical-support-ab/191631-rapid-information-is-650-543-4800-facebook-your-go-to-resource-for-assistance https://forums.ngames.com/forum/league-of-angels/support-ab/technical-support-ab/191776-your-support-hub-what-is-the-facebook-help-center-the-ultimate-guide-fb-help-centr   https://forums.ngames.com/forum/league-of-angels/support-ab/technical-support-ab/191631-rapid-information-is-650-543-4800-facebook-your-go-to-resource-for-assistance https://forums.ngames.com/forum/league-of-angels/support-ab/technical-support-ab/191776-your-support-hub-what-is-the-facebook-help-center-the-ultimate-guide-fb-help-centr
×
×
  • Create New...