"When will we know the new head coach?" - A three year study

[Evil Hurney]

Introduction and Raw Data:

I was curious when we might start hearing head coaches being "hired" by their new teams so I did a bit of digging. I looked at the last 3 hiring cycles and compared the earliest date when the hire was reported (NOT finalized) to the last date of the regular season. Here are the results (I apologize for any misspellings)

Analysis:

I took that data and built a pseudo cumulative distribution function. The chart is fairly linear. For those curious the biggest outlier is our old friend Ron being hired a mere 2 days after the regular season.

Takeaway:

Half of all new HC hires (in the NFL) are completed within 17 days of the final set of games. The 50% mark for this year would be January 25th.

No hire has taken more than 30 days, which would be February 7th this year.

Don't tell me the odds:

Edited January 19, 2023 by Evil Hurney

[KatsAzz]

16 minutes ago, Evil Hurney said:

Introduction and Raw Data:

I was curious when we might start hearing head coaches being "hired" by their new teams so I did a bit of digging. I looked at the last 3 hiring cycles and compared the earliest date when the hire was reported (NOT finalized) to the last date of the regular season. Here are the results (I apologize for any misspellings)

Analysis:

I took that data and built a pseudo cumulative distribution function. The chart is fairly linear. For those curious the biggest outlier is our old friend Ron being hired a mere 2 days after the regular season.

Takeaway:

Half of all new HC hires (in the NFL) are completed within 17 days of the final set of games. The 50% mark for this year would be January 25th.

No hire has taken more than 30 days, which would be February 7th this year.

Don't tell me the odds:

Your building of the pseudo cumulative distribution function was very impressive,to say the least..

[ncstatekwi]

Soon....and it won't be Sean Payton!

[ECHornet]

I‘m going with 1/24

[Shocker]

@Evil Hurneyis a genius…hire him as coach

[Aussie Tank]

Hopefully just after the Eagles get eliminated 

[Mage]

Lol I forgot how quick the Commanders were to hire Ron Rivera

[UNCrules2187]

48 minutes ago, Mage said:

Lol I forgot how quick the Commanders were to hire Ron Rivera

To be fair Rivera was fired 4 weeks prior to the end of the regular season so I’m sure there were back channel conversations going on there 

[Icege]

10 hours ago, Evil Hurney said:

Introduction and Raw Data:

I was curious when we might start hearing head coaches being "hired" by their new teams so I did a bit of digging. I looked at the last 3 hiring cycles and compared the earliest date when the hire was reported (NOT finalized) to the last date of the regular season. Here are the results (I apologize for any misspellings)

Analysis:

I took that data and built a pseudo cumulative distribution function. The chart is fairly linear. For those curious the biggest outlier is our old friend Ron being hired a mere 2 days after the regular season.

Takeaway:

Half of all new HC hires (in the NFL) are completed within 17 days of the final set of games. The 50% mark for this year would be January 25th.

No hire has taken more than 30 days, which would be February 7th this year.

Don't tell me the odds:

Good post is good.

[d-dave]

Very nice @Evil Hurney!

I love it when people create charts that are actually easy to read and logical.

[Ivan The Awesome]

Evil Hurney is the best Hurney. I hope you do not like meatballs.

 

[TLGPanthersFan]

9 hours ago, Mage said:

Lol I forgot how quick the Commanders were to hire Ron Rivera

Rivera was in high demand. Gotta jump on the mediocrity before someone snatched him up. 

[KatsAzz]

10 hours ago, ncstatekwi said:

Soon....and it won't be Sean Payton!

I am not disagreeing with you but who in your opinion, who  will the Panthers hire as the new HC?

[1of10Charnatives]

Interesting analysis. Great chart. I am guessing that two of the factors driving quick hiring (guessing when you look at non sports industries, the hiring of highly visible, top level, multi million dollar positions do not normally play out nearly as quickly), are the limited pool of perceived viable candidates (pro teams tend not to consider the literally hundreds of professional and college level head coaches and coordinators that make up the nominal hiring pool, but rather almost immediately focus nearly exclusively on a handful of these candidates), and the pressure of impending duties the new coach and his as yet to be hired staff will assume.

What's the first non draft activity a coaching staff needs to be prepared for, OTA's?

KInd of makes for an interesting question:

Are NFL teams doing it all wrong? In the grand scheme of things, what's more important, being sure you've got the right head coach in place for the future, or making sure that coach has as much time to prepare for the draft and OTA's as possible?

Given the rate of league turnover at head coaching positions and the presumed ability of any competent FO staff to prep for the draft without constant hand holding by the coaching staff, is there Moneyball like opportunity for a team or team to buck the trend and decide it's more important to not rush and take their time hiring a coach?

Is this even a workable approach given how firmly entrenched hiring norms in the league are at present?

Edited January 19, 2023 by 1of10Charnatives