Only one playoff team in the NFC had/has a 1st round draft choice at QB.

[Ivan The Awesome]

Why are you leaving off Trey Lance from the 49ers? He's a 1st round QB as well. 

[SCO96]

1 hour ago, Ivan The Awesome said:

Why are you leaving off Trey Lance from the 49ers? He's a 1st round QB as well. 

Due to his injury Lance is not currently starting so I left him off the list. Lance is on the roster, but let’s be honest. Over the last two years his presence/play has not significantly affected the 49ers regular season and playoff status. If they hadn’t drafted him they would still have two playoff draft appearances, all of those Draft choices they gave up to acquire him, and still be poised to move forward for the next several seasons with a young QB on a rookie deal.

[Tbe]

This is the 3rd thread on this exact topic.

Finding an Elite player in the draft is a lot of luck BUT the odds are much higher when you draft first round talent. The data on that is clear as day.

Guys drafted in the first TYPICALLY have higher levels of arm talent and better game film. Hence why teams gave them a first round grade in the first place.

Are there guys who would be great if given a chance like Purdy? Absolutely, but the overwhelming majority of 7th round QBs would get their coaches fired.

There is no magic formula. Get the guy you think has IT regardless of the round.

 

[SCO96]

6 hours ago, Shocker said:

So is someone really saying we should not look at a first round QB cuz some teams don’t have one?  Seems silly

 

6 hours ago, Bear Hands said:

Meanwhile EVERY single AFC QB is a 1st rounder lol.  

The AFC has simply been selecting all the QBs in recent years.  Naturally, what happens would be the NFC didn't get those guys.   

Trevor, Burrow, *Tua, Herbert, Mahomes, Allen, *Lamar, 

NFC is about to be a QB wasteland, best be the team to get ahead of it and find a good one, right?

In theory, I agree with both of you. If a good prospect is on the board when we pick, or if we can made a reasonable deal to move up and take one I’d be all in. My original post said we shouldn’t reach on a questionable player.

If the top 5 rated QBs in this draft were Jamarcus Russell, Josh Rosen, Ryan Leaf, David Klinger, and Andre Ware I’d be a little weary of selecting one of them in the top 10. Yet, there are guys on this board who would jump out of a window if we didn’t select one of them screaming “You only find franchise QBs in the top 10 in the draft! We need to tank next year to make sure we get one!”  
 

If a team 1) lacks depth and solid players on both sides or the ball, 2) has mediocre/bad coaching or a Stone Age mentality in terms of their offensive scheme, and 3) an incompetent front office it doesn’t matter who is behind center. You won’t win consistently. All of the teams that compete for the playoffs on a consistent basis tend to have all of the above (or at least 2 of the 3) in place. A later round choice who puts in the work, who is coachable, and has above average if not elite talent, can thrive in the above environment.

Unfortunately we’ve never had all 3  in place. We’ve never had an offensive minded head coach. The passing game tends to take a backseat to the rushing attack because of the mindset of out defensive oriented head coaches. Our front office as a whole tends to do well in the top of the draft, but for most or existence we had Hurney running too many of our drafts and he was terrible after the blue chip prospects were off the board. All of the above results in never having back to back winning seasons in 28 NFL seasons.

 

Edited January 15, 2023 by SCO96

[TheBigKat]

11 hours ago, Sean Payton's Vicodin said:

1. Chiefs - first round QB

2. Bills - first round QB

3. Bengals- first round QB

4. Jags - First round QB

5. Ravens - First round QB (injured)

6. Chargers - First round QB

7. Dolphins - First round QB (injured)

Verdict: majority of playoff teams have a first round QB

don't spin the narrative..... it messes things up for the anti-tanker crowd

[Varking]

Let’s also not ignore that guys like RGIII (WAS) , Mark Sanchez (NYJ), Baker Mayfield (CLE), DWatson (HOU), Mitch Trubiski (CHI) all took franchises that struggle to make the playoffs, to the playoffs. As first round picks on their original teams. 
 

When you get drafted by a poo team it’s harder to get them to the playoffs. Let’s not act like QBing a 49ER franchise currently is harder in any way than QBing a team like the Jaguars who just had Urban Meyer. 
 

One of the many reasons a guy who gets picked at 25 looks better than a guy picked at 3 is because the guy at 25 is going to a team that has good talent on it. And don’t lie, going into the draft the team picking 25 would likely have picked the guy going 3 over the guy they got at 25 if given the choice. 
 

You think the 49ers, for instance wouldn’t have wanted Lawrence if he was available over Lance? You think the 49ers wouldn’t take Lawrence over Purdy right now despite the fact Purdy might go further into the playoffs? 

[WarHeel]

11 hours ago, Sean Payton's Vicodin said:

1. Chiefs - first round QB

2. Bills - first round QB

3. Bengals- first round QB

4. Jags - First round QB

5. Ravens - First round QB (injured)

6. Chargers - First round QB

7. Dolphins - First round QB (injured)

Verdict: majority of playoff teams have a first round QB

OP raises a great point. 8-6 is hardly an overwhelming majority.
 

I think the big take away is that while 1st round QBs have slightly better success this year than non1st rounders strictly speaking in relation to making the playoffs, we certainly don’t need to sell the farm to get one in the top 5. We have a top 10 pick. See where the chips fall and don’t break the bank. 

[Varking]

12 minutes ago, WarHeel said:

OP raises a great point. 8-6 is hardly an overwhelming majority.
 

I think the big take away is that while 1st round QBs have slightly better success this year than non1st rounders strictly speaking in relation to making the playoffs, we certainly don’t need to sell the farm to get one in the top 5. We have a top 10 pick. See where the chips fall and don’t break the bank. 

Does he? Of that list Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott were drafted by the teams they are with. The Eagles went 9-7 and made the playoffs with first rounder Carson Wentz the year before. So they were a good team already. It was their offense that held them back the next couple of years which Hurts was a part of. 
 

Dak Prescott was drafted to a team that was a perennial playoff team under Tony Romo who were only bad the year before Dak because Romo got hurt and they were 3-1 with Tony before the injury. 
 

The other guys on the list? Jimmy G was drafted in the second round and then traded for a second round pick that turned into like 7 total players including the Raiders current QB JS. Jimmy G after like six games with the 49ers was given a contract that made him the highest paid player in the NFL at the time. Not the team that drafted him. 
 

What did the Vikings give up for Kirk Cousins? They gave him a huge salary’s and the NFLs first even fully guaranteed contract. Not the team that drafted him. 
 

I could go through the rest of the list but my workout bike just got delivered. We have tried going after other teams QBs for years now and it’s not worked out. Maybe we should just draft one in the first and see if it works like the last time we did it? 
 

 

[WarHeel]

1 hour ago, Varking said:

Does he? Of that list Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott were drafted by the teams they are with. The Eagles went 9-7 and made the playoffs with first rounder Carson Wentz the year before. So they were a good team already. It was their offense that held them back the next couple of years which Hurts was a part of. 
 

Dak Prescott was drafted to a team that was a perennial playoff team under Tony Romo who were only bad the year before Dak because Romo got hurt and they were 3-1 with Tony before the injury. 
 

The other guys on the list? Jimmy G was drafted in the second round and then traded for a second round pick that turned into like 7 total players including the Raiders current QB JS. Jimmy G after like six games with the 49ers was given a contract that made him the highest paid player in the NFL at the time. Not the team that drafted him. 
 

What did the Vikings give up for Kirk Cousins? They gave him a huge salary’s and the NFLs first even fully guaranteed contract. Not the team that drafted him. 
 

I could go through the rest of the list but my workout bike just got delivered. We have tried going after other teams QBs for years now and it’s not worked out. Maybe we should just draft one in the first and see if it works like the last time we did it? 
 

 

Your first paragraph actually galvanizes my point.
 

If the eagles were already a good team and they continue to do well with a QB drafted outside of the 1st then technically they didn’t need a first round QB to be successful. 

 

Carson Wentz, a first round QB, hasn’t exactly been elite. The Eagles had a tremendous offense in 2022 without him. 
 

I never suggested needing to buy another team’s QB, nor did I advise against drafting a 1st round QB. I said we shouldn’t reach for one in the top 5. 

Edited January 15, 2023 by WarHeel

[Icege]

According to some posters here, Daniel Jones being drafted in the 1st instantly makes him better than the rest of those QBs listed 

[Growl]

perhaps the real message to be taken here is that the Panthers have a chance of having the NFC’s only elite QB

that alone makes a swing on a QB all the more worth taking

Edited January 15, 2023 by Growl

[The Natural]

1 hour ago, TheBigKat said:

don't spin the narrative..... it messes things up for the anti-tanker crowd

Please correct me if I'm wrong but I believe only two of the 14 QB’s in the playoffs this season were even top five picks. You can select a QB in the 1st round without tanking.

[Shotgun]

4 hours ago, Tbe said:

This is the 3rd thread on this exact topic.

Finding an Elite player in the draft is a lot of luck BUT the odds are much higher when you draft first round talent. The data on that is clear as day.

Guys drafted in the first TYPICALLY have higher levels of arm talent and better game film. Hence why teams gave them a first round grade in the first place.

Are there guys who would be great if given a chance like Purdy? Absolutely, but the overwhelming majority of 7th round QBs would get their coaches fired.

There is no magic formula. Get the guy you think has IT regardless of the round.

 

Do you really think NFL GMs value 1st round picks over late round picks? They just don't have access to informative threads like this one! lol

[WarHeel]

23 minutes ago, The Natural said:

Please correct me if I'm wrong but I believe only two of the 14 QB’s in the playoffs this season were even top five picks. You can select a QB in the 1st round without tanking.

This  @varking

Edited January 15, 2023 by WarHeel