"We should have traded Burns" - a rebuttal

[Toomers]

Just now, frankw said:

Congratulations on your many very big achievements here sir I should never have questioned your status. Back to Burns. If the Rams had a first in this years draft and that was included in the offer then Scott Fitterer probably pulls the trigger. That's what this always circles back to. What is the value on a first round pick one year two years or three years from now? Seems to be anything but settled opinion.

Considering you can replace Burns AND improve another position with just the money you would overpay Burns, the picks are bonus. A big bonus. And what’s the difference when they are as far as the team is concerned. First rounders will have value until they are used. If you’re trading up for a QB, those future firsts have way more value than a 2nd or 3rd this year. And pick 37 is about as close to a first as you will get. 
 

   What’s your next deflection point? This is fun. 
 

   

[carpanfan96]

3 minutes ago, Toomers said:

Considering you can replace Burns AND improve another position with just the money you would overpay Burns, the picks are bonus. A big bonus. And what’s the difference when they are as far as the team is concerned. First rounders will have value until they are used. If you’re trading up for a QB, those future firsts have way more value than a 2nd or 3rd this year. And pick 37 is about as close to a first as you will get. 
 

   What’s your next deflection point? This is fun. 
 

   

I get the value of the trade in a rebuild but to think 12+ sacks is just replaceable so easy is actually quite crazy. 

[carpanfan96]

26 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

so if thats the case why dont we see the reverse in trading?

If your talking normal trading it's because of what I mentioned earlier. 

 

A future pick's point slot isn't guaranteed, it's 1-32 possibilities. A player to player trade or a trade within the same draft has a defined value.

[Toomers]

15 minutes ago, carpanfan96 said:

I get the value of the trade in a rebuild but to think 12+ sacks is just replaceable so easy is actually quite crazy. 

Why? Josh Uche has 11.5 sacks in 350 snaps. Justin Houston(3.5M) has 9 in 387 snaps. Plenty more. And I can almost guarantee they would play the run as well or better than Burns. Sacks are overrated. The 2019 defense was beyond horrible and they were 2nd in the league in Sacks. 
 

Crazy is turning down all that draft capital for the privilege of paying a player well over what he’s worth. 

[Toomers]

17 minutes ago, carpanfan96 said:

If your talking normal trading it's because of what I mentioned earlier. 

 

A future pick's point slot isn't guaranteed, it's 1-32 possibilities. A player to player trade or a trade within the same draft has a defined value.

So value wise, every team should trade its future 1sts for 2nd round picks in the current draft? 

[carpanfan96]

6 minutes ago, Toomers said:

Why? Josh Uche has 11.5 sacks in 350 snaps. Justin Houston(3.5M) has 9 in 387 snaps. Plenty more. And I can almost guarantee they would play the run as well or better than Burns. Sacks are overrated. The 2019 defense was beyond horrible and they were 2nd in the league in Sacks. 
 

Crazy is turning down all that draft capital for the privilege of paying a player well over what he’s worth. 

It's not just about sacks. 

 

He's 4th in pressures since drafted. He's 12 in defensive stops this season. Top ten in sacks as well to be a kicker. He's a top ten dline player.  Yeeesh

Edited January 6, 2023 by carpanfan96

[carpanfan96]

1 minute ago, Toomers said:

So value wise, every team should trade its future 1sts for 2nd round picks in the current draft? 

Didn't say that, said that's how the valuation works out and give proof of said valuation. 

[Navy_football]

The Panthers don't have a player worth two 1st rounders and a 2nd. The Rams gave them an offer they couldn't refuse - and they did. Burns has too many limitations and can be made a liability if properly game planned against. I'd much rather have a Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy DE lineup than Burns and some JAG. Just solid and consistent play from both sides. Against the run and the pass.

[frankw]

34 minutes ago, Toomers said:

Considering you can replace Burns AND improve another position with just the money you would overpay Burns, the picks are bonus. A big bonus. And what’s the difference when they are as far as the team is concerned. First rounders will have value until they are used. If you’re trading up for a QB, those future firsts have way more value than a 2nd or 3rd this year. And pick 37 is about as close to a first as you will get. 
 

   What’s your next deflection point? This is fun. 

Trading Burns is a rebuild move and you are not going to get Reddick or any other premium FA pass rusher to commit unless you overpay. For many free agents playing for a contender is also a part of their decision making process. Yeah you still have guys who will take a payday on a bottom dweller but pass rushers have more choices given the need around the league. They aren't going to be in a hurry to hitch their wagon to the rebuilding Panthers. You keep saying pick 37 like that's such a big bargaining chip. If you want to move up for a QB firsts are all that matters. But if you're the general manager of a team needing a young promising QB on a rookie contract are you going to pass up staying put and taking the quarterback you're targeting for the 37th pick or a 1st two years from now knowing your job is on the line right now? Scott Fitterer is not the only NFL GM without the benefit of time to waste. Everyone wants to win now.

[Toomers]

3 minutes ago, carpanfan96 said:

It's not just about sacks. 

 

He's 4th in pressures since drafted. He's 12 in defensive stops this season. Top ten in sacks as well to be a kicker. He's a top ten dline player.  Yeeesh

He a top ten what? DL? How can someone who is a liability on 40% of his snaps be a top 10 DL? He’s nowhere close. Even if it’s just Edge players he’s not. 

[carpanfan96]

6 minutes ago, Toomers said:

He a top ten what? DL? How can someone who is a liability on 40% of his snaps be a top 10 DL? He’s nowhere close. Even if it’s just Edge players he’s not. 

Not just my rating, this is from nfl executives. he's a Top 10 edge rusher and one of the best young players in the NFL. He ranked top 25 of young defensive players and I've already linked multiple articles in this thread showing this. 

Edited January 6, 2023 by carpanfan96

[Toomers]

7 minutes ago, carpanfan96 said:

Didn't say that, said that's how the valuation works out and give proof of said valuation. 

 No. You gave mid round examples. Do you feel those are similar to trading 2–3 1sts for a QB. In the draft. You believe a team would rather have a 2nd and a 3rd this year over a first in 24 and 25? Thinking like that is how you wind up with Everette Brown. 1st round talent will still be superior a majority of the time whenever and however the picks used. 

[Navy_football]

4 minutes ago, Toomers said:

He a top ten what? DL? How can someone who is a liability on 40% of his snaps be a top 10 DL? He’s nowhere close. Even if it’s just Edge players he’s not. 

Burns is not a top 10 DL. Heck Washington has 3 or 4 I'd put above him. Even with his sack advantage. There's more to playing the position. He can't set the edge. He opens run lanes and gets out of position even when pass rushing. And he misses tackles at the WORST possible times. 

[carpanfan96]

6 minutes ago, Toomers said:

 No. You gave mid round examples. Do you feel those are similar to trading 2–3 1sts for a QB. In the draft. You believe a team would rather have a 2nd and a 3rd this year over a first in 24 and 25? Thinking like that is how you wind up with Everette Brown. 1st round talent will still be superior a majority of the time whenever and however the picks used. 

Go back to the 2021 draft. 

 

 

 

Eagles move up from 12th to 6th. 

 

Difference in value of the picks in 2021 was 379 points. A 2nd round value.  

 

Eagles gave up a 22 1st round pick.  

 

There ya go. 

 

It's the same for every single team,  it's how the draft works