"We should have traded Burns" - a rebuttal

[mrcompletely11]

2 minutes ago, carpanfan96 said:

I think they suck at line play grading, but even still...

 

They've had him ranked in the top 10 among edge rushers. 

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-edge-defender-rankings-week-13-micah-parsons-myles-garrett-2022

 

 

:shrugs: 

His lack of ability to stop the run………….

 

therein lies the problem and the point we are trying to explain to you

[carpanfan96]

6 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

If that is the universal approach why don’t you see the reverse in play during the draft?

Teams generally move when they meet a combination of factors. 

 

Value at pick vs value at pick they are moving to combined with the value of the other picks in the trade. 

You'll see two bad teams make massive trades and you'll see good teams make those trades as well. 

49ers vs bears moving up for QB's. Ones a poorly run team and the other isn't. 

 

There's a combination of factors involved like how many players have first round grades for a team and if they move back is the value there for them and their board. 

 

Hope all that makes sense, it's late and work was stupid today.  

[carpanfan96]

9 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

His lack of ability to stop the run………….

 

therein lies the problem and the point we are trying to explain to you

I don't think they grade line play well, Burns is 12th in defensive stops this season.  The Panthers also have a much better run block win rate then they do pass run win rate among defensive line advanced stats. 

Take that for what ever it's worth to you but I honestly don't think PFF knows every teams playbooks or what each player is responsible for every single down.  

 

Do they know how to grade power run and which gap the RB is designed to go to?

Do they know which blocker is responsible for which defender based on the call and who the QB calls as mike? 

Do they know what rush defense responsibilities a wide 9 tech has vs the LB on that side of the field compared to that same play call with the DE at say 6 or 7? 

 

I honestly don't think they do. :shrugs: 

 

I lost faith when they rated the 2015 Panthers oline top 3.

[MasterAwesome]

28 minutes ago, carpanfan96 said:

I don't think they grade line play well, Burns is 12th in defensive stops this season.  The Panthers also have a much better run block win rate then they do pass run win rate among defensive line advanced stats. 

Take that for what ever it's worth to you but I honestly don't think PFF knows every teams playbooks or what each player is responsible for every single down.  

 

Do they know how to grade power run and which gap the RB is designed to go to?

Do they know which blocker is responsible for which defender based on the call and who the QB calls as mike? 

Do they know what rush defense responsibilities a wide 9 tech has vs the LB on that side of the field compared to that same play call with the DE at say 6 or 7? 

 

I honestly don't think they do. :shrugs: 

 

I lost faith when they rated the 2015 Panthers oline top 3.

I actually had like an hour-long conversation with a PFF analyst last week at a party where I picked his brain about how they do their grading lol. He admitted there are always going to be subjective judgment calls cause they’ll never know for sure 100% of the play calls and assignments of each player. But they also have a ton of former coaches and players that they employ in consulting roles who give more credible front-line insight so it’s not like it’s just some Madden nerds sitting there making unilateral decisions when it comes to reviewing film. There’s also a lot of oversight with multiple analysts and management personnel reviewing each piece of film so those grades are an aggregate consensus from many sets of eyes.

[PantherPhann89]

12 hours ago, Toomers said:

That’s on you. And the poster you agreed with who insinuated that people didn’t “understand” when they actually did. It’s been common knowledge and rehashed in numerous threads on here for two months. 

Yeah it is. But I'm pretty sure there wouldn't be a Burns replacement pass rusher in the 2nd that would show up in 2023 and probably not in 2024 either. 

[Martin]

8 hours ago, stbugs said:

It isn’t hard to replace his overall team value with a $15M FA, $12M FA, 2 1sts and pick 38 this year.

The thing you guys don’t want to acknowledge is that the Rams window is about to shut and they saw a chance to get in the playoffs in a bad NFC. They were desperate to compete this year and we could have taken advantage.

There is a not small chance that Stafford gets hurt and one of the 1sts is really high and just that pick may be enough to replace Burns value. Doesn’t have to be a DE, maybe it’s a Jamar Chase or a top QB. Heck, if the Rams do blow up, maybe it’s Jamar Chase AND a top QB.

Also, there are 8 FAs signed in 2021 or 2022 that have between 9 and 16 sacks this year. The rest of the players with 9 or more sacks are playing for their drafted team, so again, maybe it’s not that hard to replace 80% or more of what Burns does plus add several other potential solid starters.

I’ve never said you can’t replace his value, I don’t disagree there. But I don’t agree that it is easy and cheap to find another 12 sack DE.

[mrcompletely11]

9 hours ago, carpanfan96 said:

I don't think they grade line play well, Burns is 12th in defensive stops this season. 

Thats cool and thats your opinion but they are a highly regarded organization that tracks, monitors and grades players.  Thats their job.  Their methodology isnt some closely guarded secret they let you know how they grade. https://www.pff.com/grades

 

Do they have flaws, sure I bet you could cherry pick a few but on the whole they have him at 65.  Thats about right all things considered.  He has become a complete liability in the run game, thats not an opinion thats a fact.  Thats not debatable.  Everyone on here agrees he is a good pass rusher.  He is a great situational player but he is basically a one trick pony.  Can he get better in the run game, maybe but I doubt it.   He is who he is at this point, 4 years in.  All that said, because we gave him crazy leverage we are undoubtedly going to pay him top 3 money.  You think he is worth that?  So the panther cycle of bad contracts just keeps rolling on.  Why did we trade cmac?  Because we gave him a dumbass contract and we had to get out from under it.  See a pattern here?

 

The Rams were desperate and dumbass fitt didnt take advantage.

Edited January 6, 2023 by mrcompletely11

[Toomers]

10 hours ago, carpanfan96 said:

I gave 4 examples that followed the same pattern. 

 

2021 49ers trade for Lance.  1000 point difference.  

2 first and 3rd

Middle 2nd is worth 400 points, Middle 3rd 200 points. 

 

Bears in 2021. Point difference 370. 

Future 1st and 4th. 

 

Same pattern. Same valuation. 

Need I continue? That's 6 examples and all follow the same point pattern. 

 

As for the videos, said I couldn't do it till tonight or the morning.  

 

As for the other part, I've proven by normal stats and advanced stats that he's top 10. 

 

:shrugs:

Let’s look at those trades. 
 

 The 49ers had pick 48 in the 2nd in 2021. Yet MIA took a future 1st(2) instead of taking the 2nd that year. Why would they do that if picks lose value?

  The Bears had pick 39 in the 2nd in 2021. Yet the NYG took a future 1st instead. Why? 

Please continue. 

 You posted a PFF list that has him 10th(for this season and weeks ago)but doesn’t include Watt, J Bosa or Sweat as they clearly state. Then when some of their evaluation showed his weakness, you went after their credibility. 
 

   The only thing you have proven is if it doesn’t fit the narrative, spin it until it does. 
 

 

[frankw]

6 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

Why did we trade cmac?

When you guys say stuff like this that's when folks look at you funny. You don't pay running backs big money it is a devalued position. You simply cannot compare the value of a pass rusher to that of a running back now.

[mrcompletely11]

4 minutes ago, Toomers said:

Let’s look at those trades. 
 

 The 49ers had pick 48 in the 2nd in 2021. Yet MIA took a future 1st(2) instead of taking the 2nd that year. Why would they do that if picks lose value?

  The Bears had pick 39 in the 2nd in 2021. Yet the NYG took a future 1st instead. Why? 

Please continue. 

 You posted a PFF list that has him 10th(for this season and weeks ago)but doesn’t include Watt, J Bosa or Sweat as they clearly state. Then when some of their evaluation showed his weakness, you went after their credibility. 
 

   The only thing you have proven is if it doesn’t fit the narrative, spin it until it does. 
 

 

exactly I think if all teams held this philosophy then you would see it work in reverse more.  Clearly you dont so that just shows all situations are different.  Why wouldnt teams in a win now mode go all in with draft picks?  Teams rebuilding like the panthers should have a plan 2/3 years out.  Fitt continually thinking this is a win now franchise is fuging stupid.  It was short sighted and a pure selfish move not to do it.

[Toomers]

1 hour ago, PantherPhann89 said:

Yeah it is. But I'm pretty sure there wouldn't be a Burns replacement pass rusher in the 2nd that would show up in 2023 and probably not in 2024 either. 

You were pretty sure there wasn’t even a 2nd round pick offered too. And with 25M/yr and 3 premium picks, if you can’t replace him the wrong people are making decisions. 

[mrcompletely11]

1 minute ago, frankw said:

When you guys say stuff like this that's when folks look at you funny. You don't pay running backs big money it is a devalued position. You simply cannot compare the value of a pass rusher to that of a running back now.

You just proved my point. 

[mrcompletely11]

Just now, Toomers said:

You were pretty sure there wasn’t even a 2nd round pick offered too. And with 25M/yr and 3 premium picks, if you can’t replace him the wrong people are making decisions. 

Thats the exact quote John Ellis and Billy pointed out on the Roar when this was going down. 

[frankw]

5 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

You just proved my point. 

I think you stbugs and the Steelers fan have gone daffy honestly. But keep thinking you're right