"We should have traded Burns" - a rebuttal

[4Corners]

I go back and forth with this but I still think not trading him was the right decision. 

[LinvilleGorge]

58 minutes ago, WestPanthers said:

So how you like the YGM picked? 

I think our history of making atrocious second round picks really skews Panthers' fans concept of value of 2nd round picks. Most teams are getting good players there.

[Basbear]

58 minutes ago, WestPanthers said:

So how you like the YGM picked? 

 

52 minutes ago, Toomers said:

 

1 minute ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I think our history of making atrocious second round picks really skews Panthers' fans concept of value of 2nd round picks. Most teams are getting good players there.

Wrong thread and all, but YGM just had both of his best games in the last two weeks.....maybe he turned a corner, be huge if.... 

[LinvilleGorge]

12 minutes ago, Basbear said:

 

 

Wrong thread and all, but YGM just had both of his best games in the last two weeks.....maybe he turned a corner, be huge if.... 

We'll see. We've had other DEs that made big jumps in year three 

[Basbear]

6 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

We'll see. We've had other DEs that made big jumps in year three 

He still has the CJ henderson "lost" face, but had a few plays that caused a negative effect on the opposing offense. Plus hes doing better on pass rushing from the inside, no longer a run defender only. Hes still very young even for 2 into his career. 

[Tr3ach]

2 hours ago, carpanfan96 said:

Most teams don't view future firsts as firsts. Trade chart or value wise was 2 second rounds and a 3rd or 3 seconds. 

 

Burns is double teamed a lot and still got 12.5 sacks. It's hard to find that production in the NFL. 

 

8 players in the NFL with 12+ sacks. Most are on stacked dline teams

I will have to rewatch tape but I dont see him getting doubled much at all unless you count tight end chips.   Most of the doubles we receive come on the interior that I've seen.  I've seen plenty of plays where Burns gets stopped easily 1 vs 1.  Once his outside speed rush gets stopped and the tackle gets their hands on him he totally stops rushing and stands straight up

 

[Wundrbread33]

2 minutes ago, Tr3ach said:

I will have to rewatch tape but I dont see him getting doubled much at all unless you count tight end chips.   Most of the doubles we receive come on the interior that I've seen.  I've seen plenty of plays where Burns gets stopped easily 1 vs 1.  Once his outside speed rush gets stopped and the tackle gets their hands on him he totally stops rushing and stands straight up

 

You can see what you want to see. Absolutely he has plays where he gets stopped. Everyone does. 
 

I can find many examples of Garrett getting stonewalled by a rookie LT in his first NFL game. 
 

These guys are pros against pros. Burns wins enough that he’s one of the best pass rushers in the league. 
 

This is the way it is. Burns was a great draft pick and is getting better each year. Fantastic player; thus the trade offer. Also, if we took the trade offer, we win or lose that trade based on whether or not we nail those picks. That wouldn’t have been known for a few years. 
 

I’m happy to have Burns, and think his brightest days are ahead. It only sucks (for the cap; it’s great for him) that we will have to pay him a bunch, but that’s how it goes. 
 

You pay your best players and get creative with the surrounding talent.

[panthers55]

12 minutes ago, Tr3ach said:

I will have to rewatch tape but I dont see him getting doubled much at all unless you count tight end chips.   Most of the doubles we receive come on the interior that I've seen.  I've seen plenty of plays where Burns gets stopped easily 1 vs 1.  Once his outside speed rush gets stopped and the tackle gets their hands on him he totally stops rushing and stands straight up

 

I wonder how much of Burns play is influenced by the defensive line coaches he has had. I thought he made some strides this year. Even saw a bullrush  and using his hands instead of a big bend  to the outside on every play. I suspect with better coaching he could get much better.

[pantherj]

Burns is going to want a huge deal. Like a 6 year $120,000,000 contract. The Rams offered a gold mine of draft picks that we desperately need to rebuild this dumpster fire. We need a QB and offensive weapons galore. That takes major draft capital.

Burns is not good against the run, and disappears so badly sometimes that its like playing with 10 men on defense. I sat stunned in my chair watching him against the Bucs. He looked like a backup DE in our most critical game of the season, and I knew he'd disappear in that game. The bigger the game, the more he ghosts this team. He's a garbage time sack master.

I wanted him traded to the Rams back around the trade deadline. Some of you might remember me going crazy in the trade deadline thread. I still want him traded. It's extremely unlikely that we are close to having a good team, so we're essentially re-entering rebuilding mode. Draft picks are desperately needed for players to mature further toward the end of the rebuilding phase. It's all about timing. If we don't rebuild, then we should expect the same results for many season to come. 

Holding on to vets who led this team to losing seasons is totally batsh!t. We don't need an undersized DE who has a better disappearing act than Houdini, but we desperately needed those picks.

I don't want Fitt as our GM anymore. He's made and missed so many deals that I disagree with that it's turned me against him. Dump him, and clear out all the coaching staff as well. It's not working obviously.

[carpanfan96]

22 minutes ago, pantherj said:

Burns is going to want a huge deal. Like a 6 year $120,000,000 contract. The Rams offered a gold mine of draft picks that we desperately need to rebuild this dumpster fire. We need a QB and offensive weapons galore. That takes major draft capital.

Burns is not good against the run, and disappears so badly sometimes that its like playing with 10 men on defense. I sat stunned in my chair watching him against the Bucs. He looked like a backup DE in our most critical game of the season, and I knew he'd disappear in that game. The bigger the game, the more he ghosts this team. He's a garbage time sack master.

I wanted him traded to the Rams back around the trade deadline. Some of you might remember me going crazy in the trade deadline thread. I still want him traded. It's extremely unlikely that we are close to having a good team, so we're essentially re-entering rebuilding mode. Draft picks are desperately needed for players to mature further toward the end of the rebuilding phase. It's all about timing. If we don't rebuild, then we should expect the same results for many season to come. 

Holding on to vets who led this team to losing seasons is totally batsh!t. We don't need an undersized DE who has a better disappearing act than Houdini, but we desperately needed those picks.

I don't want Fitt as our GM anymore. He's made and missed so many deals that I disagree with that it's turned me against him. Dump him, and clear out all the coaching staff as well. It's not working obviously.

Over the last four seasons, burns win rate on pash rush is top 15.  (you can't get that high of a pass rush win with garbage time stats)

2019 - 4th

2020 - 5th  [9th in double team %]

2021 - top 20

2022 - 15th 

He's also 11th in sacks since 2019 as well. 

NFL executives have him as a top ten pass rusher in the NFL, the stats show this as well. 

 

You absolutely don't trade a top 10 edge rusher for what's essentially 3 2nd round picks. 

Edited January 5, 2023 by carpanfan96

[pantherj]

9 minutes ago, carpanfan96 said:

Over the last four seasons, burns win rate on pash rush is top 15.  (you can't get that high of a pass rush win with garbage time stats)

2019 - 4th

2020 - 5th  [9th in double team %]

2021 - top 20

2022 - 15th 

 

NFL executives have him as a top ten pass rusher in the NFL, the stats show this as well. 

I appreciate your stat hunting and I assume you have a link for the executives ranking?

[carpanfan96]

6 minutes ago, pantherj said:

I appreciate your stat hunting and I assume you have a link for the executives ranking?

https://www.panthers.com/news/brian-burns-top-10-pass-rusher-espn-poll-2022

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.si.com/nfl/panthers/.amp/gm-report/nfl-execs-view-brian-burns-as-a-top-10-pass-rusher

 

[carpanfan96]

4 minutes ago, stbugs said:

That’s bunk about future picks and most teams. The only teams that don’t care as much about future firsts are win now/contender teams. We absolutely would be stupid to not treat a future first as a first. The player you select in 2024 1st is a first round talent and a better player (on average) than the 2023 2nd or 3rd rounder (for 2025 1st). There’s a reason why rebuilding teams like Miami was or Jets/Jax/Giants are happy to take multiple firsts. Funny that all of those 4 teams are likely in the playoffs or one game away.

If you aren’t (we aren’t) a SB contended in 2023, getting a 2024 and 2025 1st round pick is great because you don’t worry about having a 2nd and 3rd rounder now. It’s amazing with how much better we draft in the 1st, yet people in here are trying to say that future firsts aren’t valuable. Look at the last 6 drafts when we’ve selected in the top half of the 1st (most likely where the Rams picks will be), our back to back firsts are CMC and Moore, Moore and Burns, Burns and Brown, Brown and Horn, and Horn and Iky. Yep, future firsts aren’t as valuable as Samuel, Donte, Little, YGM, Marshall, and whoever we have to the Jets.

It's not bunk, 

 

Draft pick trade value goes down by a round if its in a future draft. That's how the valuation is done in the NFL. 

 

The Rams who are horrible this year, could theoretically win the superbowl next year and it's first round pick be 32nd. Since most drafts usually only have about 10-15 prospects that teams have a true 1st round grade on, it significantly lowers the value of future picks because of uncertainty. 

[GoobyPls]

Why would Fitterer make that trade? He might not be here in 2 years much less 4 years if the picks come to fruition.