Drafting a QB is a total crap shoot according to a Hall of Fame QB.

[mrcompletely11]

19 minutes ago, CPcavedweller said:

You didn't know this? It's why I say we take Mayer and Hyatt and see what we have in Corral and a new coaching staff before we go drafting yet another QB who isn't Stroud or Young. Furthermore you can take a guy like Purdy and make him serviceable when you have a TEAM around them

First round tes are incredibly bust heavy, no need to risk that poo

[MHS831]

Can we all agree that this draft is the one that will define Fetterer's career? 

I think it could be interesting to draft the BPA in the first round.  A top TE and QB in round 2.  I think Hendon Hooker's value is beaten down (age, late season injury) and he could be picked up on day 2.  However, there is a guy I might draft with the third rounder (if available) and I think he might be:

However, this guy is a gunslinger who threw for 40 TDs (10 ints) against relatively weak competition.  However, I think he could become an NFL starter in time. 

Name that Tune:  (Yes, I think that is a bandana around his neck, so buyer beware)

 

Edited December 24, 2022 by MHS831

[PappyMay]

We have so many holes I’d love to trade down 2-3 picks and get another 2nd rounder. Would love to walk away with 3-4 day 1 starters on Roomie deals for a quick rebuild once again. Free up some money in a year or two.

[Krovvy]

Only Panthers fans could look at the post-Cam years, the last half decade at this point, and be completely blind to the reality of the modern NFL. Which is that you need a quarterback to consistently compete, or possibly even compete at all when looking at just our team.

We've been a losing team since the day that Cam didn't have 'it' anymore. The same could be said after Jake Delhomme's years. Oh, we're going to build a real contender by running the ball and having elite lines on both sides of the ball? Really, do you guys think it's actually feasible to find that many players to carry an inept quarterback? Oh, we need coaching right? Just need that unicorn coach to come along and we can plug and play anyone. Well, some of the best coaches, arguably ever, are having a tough go without a quarterback this year.

Sometimes I feel as if much of our fans don't actually want to be competitive or want to win the big game. They just want recognition through pro-bowl voting or fan favorites that 'break records' or some such nonsense. Personally, I don't care about player accolades, especially when it's usually some cherry-picked statistical anomaly.

I don't get it.

[L-TownCat]

2 hours ago, mrcompletely11 said:

run the ball offense doesnt work in the modern nfl consistently.  The rules are set up for a passing/scoring style offense

That’s where Tommy comes in, chief.

[Shocker]

Drafting a player like Anthony Richardson is something I would be willing to risk but if he busts miserably nobody should be surprised.  It’s a roll of the dice for sure

Edited December 24, 2022 by Shocker

[SOJA]

right it is but the chances of hitting on a consistent Pro Bowl QB is much higher when you take that player in the first round

[WOW!!]

Don’t give a poo about ppl prospective anymore.. We’ve tried everything else to get a QB.. Sign trash traded for trash.. Just draft a QB and develop him..

[ForJimmy]

6 hours ago, Shocker said:

Drafting a player like Anthony Richardson is something I would be willing to risk but if he busts miserably nobody should be surprised.  It’s a roll of the dice for sure

Oh yeah he has a high bust rate which isn’t as much of a risk with the contract restrictions for rookies. Just draft another in a few years if he busts. If he doesn’t he has all the potential you could ask for.

[CPantherKing]

Warner is wrong about evaluating them. Warner is right about the way the NFL and traditional scouting evaluates them is wrong. The NFL for the most part has the physics of the QB all wrong and does not view the role of the QB correctly.

The other thing the NFL has gotten wrong for decades is how to evaluate a head coach. It just so happens that the head coach the NFL thought could never be a head coach because he was too cerebral and not macho enough ended up unlocking an entire coaching tree that has come close to breaking the QB code.

Anyone who studies football knows I am talking about Bill Walsh.

Bill Walsh could evaluate and visualize the fit of a QB in a few hours without looking at any of his physical measurables on paper like arm strength and speed. He did not even need to see them play a game in the NFL to know.

This coaching tree starting with Bill Walsh found and/or produced Ken Anderson, Dan Fouts, Joe Montana, Steve Young (Walsh/Holmgren), Brett Favre, Mark Brunell, Kurt Warner, Matt Hasselbeck (Holmgren/Reid), Donovan McNabb, Nick Foles, Alex Smith, Patrick Mahomes. That is 1 of every 5 conference championship QBs spots since 1980. Finding a third of the QBs in modern SB NFL history that have gone to the playoffs 5 or more times. 9 SB champion QBs of 34 in modern NFL history [of 25 since the 80s]. 2 of every 3 QBs who get an opportunity in the NFL succeed in becoming a franchise leading QB. 3 of every 5 QBs that get an opportunity in the NFL make it to the playoffs. 1 of every 10 QBs that get an opportunity in the NFL win the SB. This line of coaches sees 1 of 3 of their QBs winning the SB.

It is not as random as you may think in selecting a QB, and the 1st round QB is a guaranteed loss of draft capital. Andy Reid likes going with a 1st round QB compared to Walsh or Holmgren, but he has only hit on Mahomes as a SB winner 1/3. Holmgren had spotted Favre, Brunell, Detmer, Warner, and Hasselbeck 2/5. Walsh had Anderson, Fouts, Montana, and Young 2/4. All of them found 1 SB losing QB too.

[mrcompletely11]

4 minutes ago, CPantherKing said:

Warner is wrong about evaluating them. Warner is right about the way the NFL and traditional scouting evaluates them is wrong. The NFL for the most part has the physics of the QB all wrong and does not view the role of the QB correctly.

The other thing the NFL has gotten wrong for decades is how to evaluate a head coach. It just so happens that the head coach the NFL thought could never be a head coach because he was too cerebral and not macho enough ended up unlocking an entire coaching tree that has come close to breaking the QB code.

Anyone who studies football knows I am talking about Bill Walsh.

Bill Walsh could evaluate and visualize the fit of a QB in a few hours without looking at any of his physical measurables on paper like arm strength and speed. He did not even need to see them play a game in the NFL to know.

This coaching tree starting with Bill Walsh found and/or produced Ken Anderson, Dan Fouts, Joe Montana, Steve Young (Walsh/Holmgren), Brett Favre, Mark Brunell, Kurt Warner, Matt Hasselbeck (Holmgren/Reid), Donovan McNabb, Nick Foles, Alex Smith, Patrick Mahomes. That is 1 of every 5 conference championship QBs spots since 1980. Finding a third of the QBs in modern SB NFL history that have gone to the playoffs 5 or more times. 9 SB champion QBs of 34 in modern NFL history [of 25 since the 80s]. 2 of every 3 QBs who get an opportunity in the NFL succeed in becoming a franchise leading QB. 3 of every 5 QBs that get an opportunity in the NFL make it to the playoffs. 1 of every 10 QBs that get an opportunity in the NFL win the SB. This line of coaches sees 1 of 3 of their QBs winning the SB.

It is not as random as you may think in selecting a QB, and the 1st round QB is a guaranteed loss of draft capital. Andy Reid likes going with a 1st round QB compared to Walsh or Holmgren, but he has only hit on Mahomes as a SB winner 1/3. Holmgren had spotted Favre, Brunell, Detmer, Warner, and Hasselbeck 2/5. Walsh had Anderson, Fouts, Montana, and Young 2/4. All of them found 1 SB losing QB too.

Aqueel glass

[DaveThePanther2008]

On 12/24/2022 at 3:21 AM, Harbingers said:

Let’s be honest. How many of you thought he was the next big thing?

95% of the huddlers that are screaming to tank for the #1 pick. 

You've seen the board blow up because we didn't draft Justin Fields.  Chicago is 3-12 and everyone thinks he's the 2nd coming of Hurts.  Imagine had we passed on Wilson and Fields.

Warner is a prime example of what he's talking about. Nobody wanted him.  Finally made it to an an NFL roster and became a HOFer.  It's not always measurables it's also what's between the ears.  We should look at talent but we should also look at those QBs that bring their team from behind to win games.

I don't think there is a formula for selecting a franchise QB.  I agree that the probability is much better with a higher pick but never surprised when that 3rd rounder outshines a first rounder.  

[Day1PanthersFan]

Duh, people thought Ryan Leaf was more NFL ready than Peyton Manning 

It is a lottery pretty much 

[CPantherKing]

20 minutes ago, DaveThePanther2008 said:

95% of the huddlers that are screaming to tank for the #1 pick. 

You've seen the board blow up because we didn't draft Justin Fields.  Chicago is 3-12 and everyone thinks he's the 2nd coming of Hurts.  Imagine had we passed on Wilson and Fields.

Warner is a prime example of what he's talking about. Nobody wanted him.  Finally made it to an an NFL roster and became a HOFer.  It's not always measurables it's also what's between the ears.  We should look at talent but we should also look at those QBs that bring their team from behind to win games.

I don't think there is a formula for selecting a franchise QB.  I agree that the probability is much better with a higher pick but never surprised when that 3rd rounder outshines a first rounder.  

 

The probability is not better to draft a 1st round QB in the hopes of winning in the playoffs or the SB. Drafting a QB outside the 1st round and occasionally trading for a 28 year old NFL tested QB (regardless of round) is the best probability. Compared to 1st round and 2nd to 5th round QBs, 6th round or later QBs capable of leading a team to the playoffs are the more likely to win the SB for the team that gave them their first opportunity. If you group 2nd to 5th round QBs in with 6th round to undrafted QBs, there is no question that group will out perform 1st round QBs when given an opportunity to lead a team in the NFL.

We just remember all the talked about 1st round success stories. The mid, late, or undrafted QBs who succeed are forgotten or thought of as a 1st rounder unless they are always talked about as a 6th round pick like Tom Brady (Joe Theismann, Joe Montana, Brett Favre). A 1st round pick wins 1 SB with the team that drafted them and they are celebrated. A non-1st round pick goes to 1 SB and wins it for the team that drafted them and they are an "exception" or nothing special (Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco/Mark Rypien, Nick Foles). We choose to not talk about them. A 1st round pick wins a SB as a game manager for a team who did not draft him and he is talked about. A non-first round QB wins a SB as a game manager for a team who did not draft him and he is forgotten (Trent Dilfer/Brad Johnson). A 1st round QB makes it to the playoffs for multiple teams and never goes to a SB and they are still remembered as successful. A non-1st round QB makes it to the playoffs for multiple teams and never goes to the SB, and they are placed in the back of the history book as a side note (Phillip Rivers, Vinny Testaverde, Jeff George/Kirk Cousins, Mark Brunell, Elvis Grbac). A 1st round QB struggles with multiple teams and only sees the playoffs once with an early exit and they are talked about as potential. A non-1st round QB struggles with multiple teams and sees the playoffs once with an early exit and we stop talking about them (Baker Mayfield/Matt Schaub).

There is no advantage to drafting a QB in the 1st round. The only thing that is guaranteed is a loss of 1st round draft capital and cap space that is needed to build a championship team. There have only been 5 QBs I would have drafted in the 1st round over the past 30 seasons. I expect to see the next one in the 2026/2027 draft.