Brock Purdy and why we don't need to draft a 1st round QB

[Wundrbread33]

3 minutes ago, stbugs said:

It’s ridiculous. There’s one successful 6th round QB and he was drafted over 20 years ago. How many successful 7th rounders have there been since computers were used in the draft? None?

Purdy is in a special place. A coach who knows what he can and can’t do, a good OL, plenty of playmakers on offense and a great D such that he’s always had the lead and the D is geared up to stop CMC. CMC was threat 1, as evidenced by Kittle and the other TE being wide open as soon as CMC was in the flat.

If anyone thinks Purdy is a franchise QB and we’d be better off with him instead of Young or Stroud or Richardson or even Donaldson, you just don’t get it.

Are people saying that Purdy is a franchise quarterback and the primary reason for his teams success?

 

I think, rather, what Purdy is showing is that your chance of success is far greater if you build a stout D, a dominant O-line, and fill out the offense with weapons to support a QB. 
 

It’s early, but the 49ers are built so their QB only has to be talented enough. He doesn’t have to carry the team by being a generational franchise QB.

 

We did something similar with Jake back in the day. It’s far more likely to win that way, than to hope we draft another Cam. Those guys are too rare.

 

[Wundrbread33]

Corral is more than talented enough to win with this team.

I hope we draft another to compete with him (he does have a tricky injury) and we will be fine. 
 

We should have taken a flier on Howell that late in the draft too. 

[rebelrouser]

2 hours ago, ForJimmy said:

I can't believe so many posters are AGAINST drafting a 1st round QB.  QB has been an issue for a while now and we can't just count on mid/late round diamonds or converting someone else's outcasts.  We aren't smarter than all the other teams in the league.  Just draft one we like and try to actually develop him.  We have solid OL now which is a nice first step.  

Just because you draft a qb in the first round does not mean they are a first round talent. It depends on the year. If Atlanta had reached for Desmond Ridder in the first round instead of waiting for him to fall in the third round, would he be a better prospect? Of course not. There are four legit first round talents in this draft and then there is Anthony Richardson.  We will be drafting after the teams who need qb's have already picked. We could trade down for a legit first round talent, but I am sick and tired of giving up draft capital for qbs. 

[Mr. Scot]

3 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

I am gonna set the over/under on these type of threads at 10.5.

Are you taking the over or under before we actually hit the draft?

We can start the clock with the last one created and this one doesn't count towards it.

To be fair, there was really only one thread talking about him prior to this one.

Could there be more later? I suppose it's possible.

Heaven knows we see plenty of "hey somebody else is doing this so maybe we should try it" threads posted here on a pretty regular basis.

[mrcompletely11]

4 minutes ago, Wundrbread33 said:

Corral is more than talented enough to win with this team.

I hope we draft another to compete with him (he does have a tricky injury) and we will be fine. 
 

We should have taken a flier on Howell that late in the draft too. 

He is a 3rd round talented qb.  How many of those are there in the nfl?  How many have there been in the modern nfl?  

[Gerry Green]

37 minutes ago, RJK said:

The panthers have literally never developed a QB in franchise history. It’s not going to magically just happen. If Purdy was drafted by Carolina he’d be on IR or inactive until he washed out of the league. 

 

TBF, not one of those coaches are around anymore. The past is the past. Time to let it go.

[Jay Roosevelt]

Brock Purdy = Trevor Semien = Gus Frerotte = Case Keenum = Taylor Heinicke = Matt Cassel = Jacoby Brissett = Bruce Gradkowski = Charlie Batch = Rodney Peete = Chad Henne = 

[ForJimmy]

46 minutes ago, rebelrouser said:

Just because you draft a qb in the first round does not mean they are a first round talent. It depends on the year. If Atlanta had reached for Desmond Ridder in the first round instead of waiting for him to fall in the third round, would he be a better prospect? Of course not. There are four legit first round talents in this draft and then there is Anthony Richardson.  We will be drafting after the teams who need qb's have already picked. We could trade down for a legit first round talent, but I am sick and tired of giving up draft capital for qbs. 

It’s all a matter of opinion. I’ve seen AR ranked as the 3rd QB. Which 4 do you have 1st round grades on?

[Gerry Green]

I like the allure of a top draft pick. And the shiny new QB that pick should garner. But man, I love winning. 

 

The biggest thing right now is how much you trust the powers that be? I don't think we have enough actual evidence of what THIS FO can do. So the optimist in me is excited for the future.

[Gerry Green]

KC traded up for Mahomes.

The Bills traded up for Allen.

 

You don't need a top pick. You need a FO/Staff that can do work.

[Jon Snow]

4 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

I am gonna set the over/under on these type of threads at 10.5.

Are you taking the over or under before we actually hit the draft?

We can start the clock with the last one created and this one doesn't count towards it.

Its a good thing this was your thread.  I was about to troll the hell out of you.

[RJK]

39 minutes ago, Gerry Green said:

 

TBF, not one of those coaches are around anymore. The past is the past. Time to let it go.

Over all regimes since its inception this franchise has been a run first play good defense ball club. Teams have tendencies that seem to show themselves no matter who’s in charge. Not saying it can’t be done just that it never has. 

[Wundrbread33]

42 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Too rare? There are 19 first round starters and 14 of them were top 10. That’s not including Winston, Mariota, Wilson and Lance.

First round QBs are not rare at all, neither are top 10 guys. 6th rounders to UDFAs that are starters are rare even if that’s a big bucket of players. The good ones in there like Jake, Warner and Brady are once a decade guys. Even 3rd rounders like Cousins and R. Wilson are rare. 2nd rounders are less rare.

If Purdy stays a starter for years, he’s a rarity, not Cam. Heck, at the start of the year there were 5 starting QBs taken number 1 overall and like last year, QBs are even taken number 1 every year. Very likely will be two more number 1 picks starting in 2024.

You created an argument to something I didn’t say. 

[Wundrbread33]

29 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Also, @Wundrbread33, look at the last 20 SBs. Unless you got Brady, you best chance of winning or at least getting to the SB is a first round QB.

In 20 SBs, Tom won 6, first round QBs won 9 and everyone else won 5. That everyone else include Brees a 2nd rounder taken with pick 32 and Foles, who was backing up a 1st rounder who went 11-2 and was an MVP candidate who got the Eagles the #1 seed.

In those 20 SBs, 10 of the losing QBs were 1st rounders as well. I’m not trying to pick on you, but even with all the first round busts, it’s still far easier to make the SB win or lose with a first rounder even though the are very much outnumbered.

Would it be nice to hire the next Belichick and draft the next Brady? Heck yeah, but the chances are that I’ll win the lottery first.

It’s not that simple. I also didn’t say I’m putting my eggs in drafting the next Brady. 
 

I’ve given reasons in other posts that a 1st round QB could succeed outside of simply being more talented. 
 

Because being a 1st round QB does not equal “the most talent.” Hence busts. 
 

And historical analysis tells you what happened, but it doesn’t tell you WHY it happened, and it doesn’t tell you what will. It lacks context.

Trent Dilfer was a top 10 drafted QB, so his Super Bowl win counts for 1st rounders. But elite generational QB he was not. That’s just an example of context in his case. 
 

Manning won a Super Bowl in 2015. Without context, Denver won it because of a 1st round QB. Unfortunately we intimately know the context. 
 

It’s just not that simple. It’s far more detailed with far more moving parts than what it appears at surface level.