let's talk about Brock Purdy and Mike White

[GOAT]

6 hours ago, Sean Payton's Vicodin said:

Mike White is a poo QB and Purdy has literally just started one game. You root for a team that had Kyle Allen and Sam Darnold start 4-0 and 3-0 respectively. Once film gets out on these lads it will be all over.

 Also OP you could have just said that "I think we should just take a late round QB because those are as good as first round QBs". Its a pretty common cope around these parts.

 

5 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

IMO, it is because a simple, basic understanding of statistical probability isn't present in most fans. 

You just see Russell Wilson in the 3rd or Tom Brady in the 6th and that now becomes the norm, despite the fact that nothing could be further from the truth.

 

let me try rephrasing the question since it doesn't seem to be understood...

what are your thoughts on teams that just drafted a QB in the top 3 (where we ideally want to draft a QB) and their late round back ups are out performing them?

yes, Kyle and Sam had their streaks - but they were not playing while a fresh top 3 pick sat on the bench. they were all we had, and yes the tape caught up to them. 

I'm not saying we should draft a late round QB, actually - yes I am. I think we should draft two. One in the first and one later on in the draft. Maybe even earlier. Maybe an RG3 / Cousins type draft. We need to hit on one.

I was literally just trying to get others thoughts on these teams that have top 3 QB's and their late round back ups are out performing and could potentially dethrone them, but the Huddle had other plans 

 

[DeeJay]

I miss when they charged to make threads 

[GOAT]

18 minutes ago, DeeJay said:

I miss when they charged to make threads 

I'm actually super curious and have some time this morning, what about this thread affects you so negatively? it's literally a question about football players that we watch for entertainment purposes.

[Wundrbread33]

24 minutes ago, GOAT said:

I'm actually super curious and have some time this morning, what about this thread affects you so negatively? it's literally a question about football players that we watch for entertainment purposes.

Can’t let unproductive comments take over. There’s always someone who shits on any thread. 

[PNW_PantherMan]

As other posters have said, the odds that 1 of these 2 guys becomes a franchise QB is still pretty low.  We haven't seen enough from either guy, and Mike White had a couple good games last year before coming back down to earth.

The 49ers messed up royally by trading so much to take Lance that high.  That was a huge mistake.  I felt like he was a reach there even if you had earned that pick without trading for it, but that's just me.  The Jets took a swing at a franchise QB with their early draft pick and they missed.  It happens.  They will probably be looking to swing again soon.

[Tr3ach]

14 hours ago, GOAT said:

For sure, my question though is specifically about these teams that swung for the fences on a top 3 QB and are on the verge of moving on with late rounders.

Just wanted to get peoples opinions on that but clicking the poop emoji is a fun way to pass time this evening as well I guess.

It's a risk, it always is to say sometimes it doesnt work out so you shouldnt do it though is silly.   If you trust your scouts and GM then you always want to have more options of players to pick and the top ones are usually coming in with a couple elite traits.  It's silly to say that because it doesnt always work out that you want less players available to pick from.

[KatsAzz]

For what it's worth, it has been reported that less than half of first-round QBs manage a single 4000-yd or 24 touchdown season. Those are pretty low bars for success. On top of that, almost half don’t even make it to a second contract.

Expecting a first-round QB to change your franchise appears to be wishful thinking. If we tighten the constraints to just top-10 picks, things don’t get much better. We still see that half still don’t ever see 4000 yards or 24 touchdowns in a season. On top of that, only 70% last 5 years with their drafting team.

Okay, let’s be VERY restrictive: just first overall picks. Now we are down to a sample size of 12 guys.

It’s little surprise that the numbers are looking better. A 3200-yd season is closer to a guarantee and we have pretty good odds at 4000 yards and 32 touchdowns.

Still, the elite marks remain elusive and two of the 12 quarterbacks don't see their fifth year. 

[kungfoodude]

2 hours ago, GOAT said:

 

 

let me try rephrasing the question since it doesn't seem to be understood...

what are your thoughts on teams that just drafted a QB in the top 3 (where we ideally want to draft a QB) and their late round back ups are out performing them?

yes, Kyle and Sam had their streaks - but they were not playing while a fresh top 3 pick sat on the bench. they were all we had, and yes the tape caught up to them. 

I'm not saying we should draft a late round QB, actually - yes I am. I think we should draft two. One in the first and one later on in the draft. Maybe even earlier. Maybe an RG3 / Cousins type draft. We need to hit on one.

I was literally just trying to get others thoughts on these teams that have top 3 QB's and their late round back ups are out performing and could potentially dethrone them, but the Huddle had other plans 

 

We answered your question pretty conclusively but you simply chose not to listen.

[App Panther]

Post like these by the OP is why we'll never win a Superbowl or be consistently good. 

[GOAT]

36 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

We answered your question pretty conclusively but you simply chose not to listen.

you didn't, you completely misunderstood the question and tried to make a joke.

[RumHam]

15 hours ago, GOAT said:

what are yalls thoughts on these two situations?

we have the Jets who drafted Wilson and seem to prefer an perform better with a 5th round cast away. tons of users on here would've done terrible things to draft Wilson, and now look - replaced by some dude that was never on anyone's radar.

then we have the niners, traded their picks away to get Lance who under performed and got injured, now Jimmy's hurt and this Brock kid (THE LAST FUGING PICK IN THE DRAFT) comes out and helps them get a win. Shanahan and Kittle are raving about this dude and I'm getting the vibe he's about to take over.

What does this have to do with us? Well you have two teams that both did whatever they could to draft "their guys" in the top 3 pics and voila. Replaced by late rounders. Lot's of talk about tanking and drafting a first rounder but damn, it's really dicey out there.

What does that have to tell you? What are your thoughts on this?

it's called lack of film and a vanilla offense. you guys always seem to forget kyle allen. how's he looking nowadays?

[GOAT]

1 minute ago, RumHam said:

it's called lack of film and a vanilla offense. you guys always seem to forget kyle allen. how's he looking nowadays?

OOF man oh man this question is just not being understood...

The question was about these teams that drafted guys in the top 3, and now being outperformed by later picks. Not teams without any QB at all.

nvm this is why I rarely post on here 

[CPantherKing]

7 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

The statistics are extremely and painfully obvious when it comes to drafting QB's and their success rate. It is very heavily weighted towards 1st round picks historically. 

False statement.

When QBs are given the opportunity to start in the NFL for the team that brought them into the NFL, 1st round QBs are less successful at winning games, producing GWD in the playoffs, winning the SB, having a career that lasts 10 seasons, and developing a dynasty.

33 QBs have produced GWD this season. 13 of them are not 1st round QBs.

75 GWD in 2022 to this point. 28 GWD came from the QBs outside the 1st round.

47:20 v 28:13 ... Both groups of QBs have an avg GWD of 2. Seems even again. All I see is that 1st round QBs get more opportunities, take up more draft capital, take up more cap space, win in the clutch less come playoff time, and win SBs less.

And if you are going to pull the Brady is an outlier card, than you also need to call out the Mannings as outliers too. Not many pedigree QB factories loading up the NFL with QBs.

Walsh and Gibbs never drafted a QB in the 1st round. 7 SB trophies. 17% of the last 41 SBs since the 80s.

9 teams have won the SB with a QB they drafted in the 1st round over this same period.

18 teams have won the SB over this period. Once again even.

14 teams have not won a SB over this period.

The Chiefs, Steelers, and Bears are the only NFL teams to win the SB with only 1st round QBs they have drafted. Seems like this is your outlier stat. Relying on 1st round picks for success is not the way to go.

Of course, if the aim is to be a losing team or an average team winning in the NFL as the way you define success, you would be much closer to being correct.

[Brooklyn 3.0]

4 hours ago, MasterAwesome said:

Saying "let's skip drafting a QB in the 1st and just take late-round QBs instead" would be a stupid argument...but I don't think anyone is making that argument?  What's debatable and the question that the OP seems to be asking is: is it worth deliberately tanking in hopes that you're gonna draft the savior of your franchise at the top of the 1st when it's such a volatile crapshoot?

Yes, because the percentage that we draft a stud QB early is actually BETTER than the percentage we'd somehow upset multiple teams in the Playoffs and make it to the Super Bowl.