let's talk about Brock Purdy and Mike White

[GOAT]

what are yalls thoughts on these two situations?

we have the Jets who drafted Wilson and seem to prefer an perform better with a 5th round cast away. tons of users on here would've done terrible things to draft Wilson, and now look - replaced by some dude that was never on anyone's radar.

then we have the niners, traded their picks away to get Lance who under performed and got injured, now Jimmy's hurt and this Brock kid (THE LAST FUGING PICK IN THE DRAFT) comes out and helps them get a win. Shanahan and Kittle are raving about this dude and I'm getting the vibe he's about to take over.

What does this have to do with us? Well you have two teams that both did whatever they could to draft "their guys" in the top 3 pics and voila. Replaced by late rounders. Lot's of talk about tanking and drafting a first rounder but damn, it's really dicey out there.

What does that have to tell you? What are your thoughts on this?

[ForJimmy]

[GOAT]

4 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

I had a feeling this topic would make some uncomfortable or unsure how to respond.

[Pejorative Miscreant]

Kyle Allen was picked after the last pick in the draft and came in and helped the panthers get wins. Ditto for PJ. Guys not drafted in the top of the first round are still NFL players and can come in and be productive.  Some can end up being great but most will not be the long term answer. 

I am not big on the tanking philosophy and think that football players and coaches likely don’t subscribe to that rationale either but generally speaking the best players are at the top of the draft.  

[GOAT]

1 minute ago, Pejorative Miscreant said:

Kyle Allen was picked after the last pick in the draft and came in and helped the panthers get wins. Ditto for PJ. Guys not drafted in the top of the first round are still NFL players and can come in and be productive.  Some can end up being great but most will not be the long term answer. 

I am not big on the tanking philosophy and think that football players and coaches likely don’t subscribe to that rationale either but generally speaking the best players are at the top of the draft.  

For sure, my question though is specifically about these teams that swung for the fences on a top 3 QB and are on the verge of moving on with late rounders.

Just wanted to get peoples opinions on that but clicking the poop emoji is a fun way to pass time this evening as well I guess.

[Ocpanthertew714]

[Dilla]

Purdy hasn't even played a full game yet. Literally a month ago, Carolina coaches and his teammates were talking up PJ the exact same way after a close loss and what happened? The talent caught up with him and he put out a stinker in Cincy.

 

Mike White has 8 TDs and 10 int career wise.

 

This is premature, no? Especially Purdy.

[CPantherKing]

You are looking at a 50% split whether you choose a 1st rounder a QB chosen outside the 1st round and undrafted QBs.

First rounders will always get more opportunities. Non-first rounders will always play with more of an edge and nothing to lose.

Most QBs will be decent game managers. Most project QBs will fail. What you won't get is QBs who have proven they can produce GWD. They also will not be able to produce better against an NFL playoff caliber defense than they did against college defenses. Easy ceiling to measure coming out of college and it will transfer to the NFL every time.

There are a list of these QBs and several of them are not starting in the NFL or not on an NFL roster atm. Meanwhile,  the scouts fall in love with these big school QBs who have gone untested with the coaches, defenses, OLs, and 5 star skill position recruits that surround them leading to blow out wins and few opportunities to prove they have the foundation to be an NFL QB.

Heinicke was that QB with the Panthers. He was buried under Cam, Allen, and Grier. If you looked at Heinicke's college success in GWD, you would have seen he was better than Allen and Grier. He never got his chance with the Panthers. He should have been given 5 to 6 starts before he was tossed. If he couldn't produce GWD, then move to the next. Kyle Allen could not produce GWD. His wins were anchored by the defense and running game.

It's not difficult to find the QBs that will be successful. The difficult part is developing an organization that stops shopping for show ponies, focuses on clutch production and turnovers in college, values footwork in the pocket over everything else, and most importantly demonstrates patience and decisiveness in allowing these QBs their opportunities without falling in love with them and giving them 32 games to show a glimpse of success on the field (Lawrence and Fields).

[DaveThePanther2008]

1 hour ago, GOAT said:

what are yalls thoughts on these two situations?

we have the Jets who drafted Wilson and seem to prefer an perform better with a 5th round cast away. tons of users on here would've done terrible things to draft Wilson, and now look - replaced by some dude that was never on anyone's radar.

then we have the niners, traded their picks away to get Lance who under performed and got injured, now Jimmy's hurt and this Brock kid (THE LAST FUGING PICK IN THE DRAFT) comes out and helps them get a win. Shanahan and Kittle are raving about this dude and I'm getting the vibe he's about to take over.

What does this have to do with us? Well you have two teams that both did whatever they could to draft "their guys" in the top 3 pics and voila. Replaced by late rounders. Lot's of talk about tanking and drafting a first rounder but damn, it's really dicey out there.

What does that have to tell you? What are your thoughts on this?

Good topic.  White had a great first game and a not-so-great 2nd game.  Purdy really shined in Shanahan's offense. 

As @Pejorative Miscreantpointed out your best "talent" traditionally is at the top of draft but sometimes there are gems.  There are several youtube videos on believing White might be the answer in NY. It will be interesting to see if he'll be figured out after a couple of weeks of film.

Purdy has so many weapons I think any QB in SF would do well but make no mistake he came in and played well, which is what a back up is supposed to do.   I've also heard that Shanahan and Lynch really like this kid.  I find it quite funny that a rookie "Mr. Irrelevant" played better than the QB that SF traded 3 No. 1 for, had a full camp as the #1 QB and had one year understudy with Shanahan offense.

There are several "Lynch apologetics" out there that want to make excuses why Lance looked so bad in his debut.  Why didn't Purdy have issues?  He seemed to do well.  This ought to be fun.

I think you have to have good scouts to recommend some of these QBs that teams find.  We had Heinicke and let him go far too soon.  He's playing better than any QB since Cam.  

Once again, great topic.  Blow off all the poo's you'll get because those that do that are simple minded. They cannot see that every player drafted in the NFL is talented, athletic and deserving of a selection. Lower round picks don't usually last too long but every year there is some late round pick that turns out to be a Pro Bowler. 

 

 

[DaveThePanther2008]

24 minutes ago, CPantherKing said:

You are looking at a 50% split whether you choose a 1st rounder a QB chosen outside the 1st round and undrafted QBs.

First rounders will always get more opportunities. Non-first rounders will always play with more of an edge and nothing to lose.

Most QBs will be decent game managers. Most project QBs will fail. What you won't get is QBs who have proven they can produce GWD. They also will not be able to produce better against an NFL playoff caliber defense than they did against college defenses. Easy ceiling to measure coming out of college and it will transfer to the NFL every time.

There are a list of these QBs and several of them are not starting in the NFL or not on an NFL roster atm. Meanwhile,  the scouts fall in love with these big school QBs who have gone untested with the coaches, defenses, OLs, and 5 star skill position recruits that surround them leading to blow out wins and few opportunities to prove they have the foundation to be an NFL QB.

Heinicke was that QB with the Panthers. He was buried under Cam, Allen, and Grier. If you looked at Heinicke's college success in GWD, you would have seen he was better than Allen and Grier. He never got his chance with the Panthers. He should have been given 5 to 6 starts before he was tossed. If he couldn't produce GWD, then move to the next. Kyle Allen could not produce GWD. His wins were anchored by the defense and running game.

It's not difficult to find the QBs that will be successful. The difficult part is developing an organization that stops shopping for show ponies, focuses on clutch production and turnovers in college, values footwork in the pocket over everything else, and most importantly demonstrates patience and decisiveness in allowing these QBs their opportunities without falling in love with them and giving them 32 games to show a glimpse of success on the field (Lawrence and Fields).

Outstanding reply.  

I spit bullets thinking what would have happened if we had just kept Heinicke.  He has that Delhomme passion that we used to love.  I used to live in Norfolk Virginia where he played college football at ODU but back then they didn't have a football program.    He's a winner.  His Wikepedia profile shows he never had a losing season at ODU (6-6 was his lowest record) and is the 18 player to throw for 10,000 yds and rush for 1,000 in a career. 

[CPantherKing]

20 minutes ago, DaveThePanther2008 said:

Outstanding reply.  

I spit bullets thinking what would have happened if we had just kept Heinicke.  He has that Delhomme passion that we used to love.  I used to live in Norfolk Virginia where he played college football at ODU but back then they didn't have a football program.    He's a winner.  His Wikepedia profile shows he never had a losing season at ODU (6-6 was his lowest record) and is the 18 player to throw for 10,000 yds and rush for 1,000 in a career. 

This is typical. Heinicke was tested in college. Mayfield was not tested; he was protected by a big program. Ohio St QBs experience this all the time and never develop in college what is needed to win in the NFL. Every loss a QB has in college is an opportunity. Any QB in the NFL will lose more than they win when given this opportunity. In college you can have QBs who have more wins than losses like Desmond Ridder at Cinncy, Tom Brady at Michigan, and Grayson McCall at Coastal. It is very similar to batters in baseball. You want a .400 hitter and not a .100 hitter.

They may look awkward and lanky. They may come in last at the combine. They will pull out the wins when the rest of the team and coaching staff fail.

I believe you should give a proven college QB 4 losses in the NFL. If they produce 1 GWD, you give them another 4 losses. Once they fall below 20% GWD, you move on to the next QB. You will quickly find that QB that will be able to produce 30% GWD and win in the playoffs. Currently, there are about 14 QBs that are able to maintain a 30% GWD. Only 4 to 6 of them are able to maintain 40% GWD. 7 active QBs have won the SB. Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco are the only 2 SB winning QBs who are below 30% GWD.

A team could never draft a QB and only cycle through undrafted QBs who have proven this in college. They would find multiple QBs who could win in the playoffs and win a SB. The scouts and front offices miss big on players all the time because of the way they evaluate athletes over winners. You build a team around winners. You supercharge the winners with athletes.

Joe Gibbs and Bill Walsh were the masters of understanding the true value of a QB. Neither of them drafted a QB in the 1st round, and they would trade away their 1st round picks for more draft capital in later rounds.

[DaveThePanther2008]

22 minutes ago, CPantherKing said:

The scouts and front offices miss big on players all the time because of the way they evaluate athletes over winners. You build a team around winners. You supercharge the winners with athletes.

I keep going back to Jake but Jake wasn't the most talented QB in the NFL but he was a winner.  (A lot of fun to watch as well).  You can teach skills but you can't teach that pressure of a GWD.  You have it or you don't.   

Whatever round we draft in I hope we find that QB with balls of steel that can handle the pressure of a GWD. 

BTW, I am shocked that Rodgers is below 30% GWD. 

Edited December 8, 2022 by DaveThePanther2008

[kungfoodude]

If you want to try a strategy of only trying late round QB's, good luck. This is a strategy of ignoring all facts and statistics. If you build your decision tree on only considering outliers, you will fail. If you fall prey to hot takes, you will also fail.

The statistics are extremely and painfully obvious when it comes to drafting QB's and their success rate. It is very heavily weighted towards 1st round picks historically. 

If you are looking for 100% success rate, it's probably best to just never draft anyone because that isn't how the NFL draft works.

The examples used here are completely ridiculous. The 49ers are not going to move on with Brock Purdy. They have seen less than a game of him. In all likelihood he will play well for a stretch and then fall apart, like most backup QB's do. Mike White is not the future in NY. They know that because he has been on their team for the last two years and had a 2-3 record with some middling to bad production. 

At some point you do actually have to look beyond a game or a stretch if games. If you don't, you'll end up with Sam Darnold/Kyle Allen with a 10 year, $500 billion dollar contract after 3 games of play.

I really just wonder what is running through some of your heads sometimes.

Edited December 8, 2022 by kungfoodude

[Sean Payton's Vicodin]

Mike White is a poo QB and Purdy has literally just started one game. You root for a team that had Kyle Allen and Sam Darnold start 4-0 and 3-0 respectively. Once film gets out on these lads it will be all over.

 Also OP you could have just said that "I think we should just take a late round QB because those are as good as first round QBs". Its a pretty common cope around these parts.

Edited December 8, 2022 by Sean Payton's Vicodin