Draft position updates

[FugginPoo]

What rookie QB are we getting in this draft that is going to get us to the playoffs in next 2 years?  They are huge gambles 

[mrcompletely11]

4 minutes ago, FugginPoo said:

What rookie QB are we getting in this draft that is going to get us to the playoffs in next 2 years?  They are huge gambles 

That short term mentality is what has fuged us for 3 seasons now

[catnip]

Picking a QB in the draft is a crapshoot .   You just don't know .  Just keep swinging until you get a hit .

[45catfan]

11 hours ago, Jackie Lee said:

I think Gantt is a dork but I agree. I'd much rather have our team looking like just a QB away than picking #1 and having a complete poo roster and culture

 

You nailed nailed it.  After looking at this roster for next year, seeing our cap situation and seeing that this draft lacks super stars at the top but has good depth, I have come to same realization.  Build the team, find a competent HC, where that HC finds a stud OC and stop chasing franchise QBs for the time being.  When the time is right, snag the QB and stop forcing it. I'm thinking of the Pittsburgh situation when they drafted Big Ben.  He had success because while he played good as a rookie, the surrounding parts made him even better.

We could go this route or continue the failed Matt Rhule model or sabotage a brand new staff as we have seen in Denver when they sunk most of their resources into Russell Wilson.

[saX man]

The Colts are 4-6-1 and are slotted at pick 14 right now, and get the Cowboys next week.

Next week with us on a bye:

5-7 Falcons v. 3-7 Steelers

4-8 Packers v. 3-9 Bears

4-7 Jaguars v. 4-7 Lions

4-8 Saints v. 5-6 Bucs

If we somehow pull out a win in Seattle, we may just need to accept we're not going to be a top-5 pick.

 

[t96]

Picking 6 right now. 

Bears, Rams, Steelers, Broncos all ahead of us but would drop below us with 1 more win than us the rest of the year. Texans aren't dropping out of 1st overall. 

Rams and Broncos really have zero incentive to lose games as they traded away their picks so despite how bad they've been I still think they can 1 or 2 more down the stretch.

Steelers suck but they have some winnable games on there, including our game. 

Bears have Packers and Lions but don't see any other winnable games on their schedule.

 

Of course if we win more meaningless games we'll drop, but if we don't win any more games I see us still picking top 2-3.

[45catfan]

42 minutes ago, saX man said:

The Colts are 4-6-1 and are slotted at pick 14 right now, and get the Cowboys next week.

Next week with us on a bye:

5-7 Falcons v. 3-7 Steelers

4-8 Packers v. 3-9 Bears

4-7 Jaguars v. 4-7 Lions

4-8 Saints v. 5-6 Bucs

If we somehow pull out a win in Seattle, we may just need to accept we're not going to be a top-5 pick.

 

And I'm okay with that.  Stay put or move back a little, get more draft capital and take WR or TE with that first pick. We need more reliable targets and QB that won't lose us games.  Walker and Darnold has shown even with this swiss cheese roster we can win if the QB merely play mistake-free football.  Games with 4 TDs tossed and 300+ yards are pretty for the stat sheet, but aren't always necessary to get W's.

Edited November 28, 2022 by 45catfan

[saX man]

Just now, 45catfan said:

And I'm okay with that.  Stay put or move back a little, get more draft capital and take WR or TE with that first pick. We need more reliable targets and QB that won't lose us games.  Walker and Darnold has shown even with this swiss cheese roster we can will if the QB merely play mistake-free football.  Games with 4 TDs tossed and 300+ yards are pretty for the stat sheet, but aren't always necessary to get W's.

I personally have 1 alternate scenario if it's not Bryce/Stroud.  Before that, there's a clear chance of needing to accept it could very well be Levis and rooting for that to work out.  We'll likely be right in the range (if things hold where they are today)

But my one alternate: Jordan Addison at pick 8-10ish, Trade up into R1 for Richardson or McKee.  R2 QB scenarios work out rarely (Hurts, Brees); best trade up and get the 5th year for the most important position.  Addison (and maybe Quentin) are the types that will totally change an offense.  Would love to have ourselves a Hill/Waddle type setup for a young buck.

[45catfan]

10 minutes ago, saX man said:

I personally have 1 alternate scenario if it's not Bryce/Stroud.  Before that, there's a clear chance of needing to accept it could very well be Levis and rooting for that to work out.  We'll likely be right in the range (if things hold where they are today)

But my one alternate: Jordan Addison at pick 8-10ish, Trade up into R1 for Richardson or McKee.  R2 QB scenarios work out rarely (Hurts, Brees); best trade up and get the 5th year for the most important position.  Addison (and maybe Quentin) are the types that will totally change an offense.  Would love to have ourselves a Hill/Waddle type setup for a young buck.

Levis scares me.  He has the arm, but arm strength isn't everything. I want weapons and several of them.  We lack weapons.  If we forego a first round QB this year then so be it.  I say that because Stroud/Young should be out of reach and honestly I have serious reservations about both.  Honestly beyond those two and Levis (whose stock should be in the teens honestly) other QBs will be taken this draft in the first round, but honestly should not.  QBs will be severely overvalued early in this year and I hope we aren't one of the teams caught up in that mess.  A correction in the value of QBs will take shape on Day 2.  If we take a stab at a QB, that's where it needs to happen.  In the mean time, get a weapon to help out whomever is at QB and take some pressure off of Moore.

 

[saX man]

2 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

Levis scares me.  He has the arm, but arm strength isn't everything. I want weapons and several of them.  We lack weapons.  If we forego a first round QB this year then so be it.  I say that because Stroud/Young should be out of reach and honestly I have serious reservations about both.  Honestly beyond those two and Levis (whose stock should be in the teens honestly) other QBs will be taken this draft in the first round, but honestly should not.  QBs will be severely overvalued early in this year and I hope we aren't one of the teams caught up in that mess.  A correction in the value of QBs will take shape on Day 2.  If we take a stab at a QB, that's where it needs to happen.  In the mean time, get a weapon to help out whomever is at QB and take some pressure off of Moore.

 

Fair points.  I'm not a Levis fan as of now but am prepping for the possibility and looking for the silver lining.  And the Day 2 QB situation you speak of almost always includes a gap with a few outliers like Hurts and Brees.  

What I'm hoping to show is that teams tend to target a guy and will move up to grab him from the mid to late 1st. That's just what happens.  If every team passes on a guy in R1 at the most important position, that will also get a 5th year option, it almost always means they pass on them in Round 2 as well.  The QB picks then tend to pick back up in R3. 

Allen, Mahomes, Watson, Jackson, Love, Bridgewater, Flacco, Cutler, all trade ups.  The ones that don't work out like Kyle Boller, JP Losman, Josh Freeman, they'll happen to.  It's so easy to just say "trade down, grab a guy round 2" but it's just not how it typically happens. Not saying that's what your getting at, but it's something so easy to say, yet something that rarely works out or happens.  No one in their right mind thought Hurts was going to be this type of slayer.  

To your point, how does the Late 1st crowd stack up against the Day-2ers in this group, especially if it's being overvalued?  How do Richardson, McKee compare to a Penix, Hall, Tune, etc.?  I'm unsure at this point, leaning a bit more on the McKee/Richardson train though. 

[raleigh-panther]

[45catfan]

1 minute ago, saX man said:

Fair points.  I'm not a Levis fan as of now but am prepping for the possibility and looking for the silver lining.  And the Day 2 QB situation you speak of almost always includes a gap with a few outliers like Hurts and Brees.  

What I'm hoping to show is that teams tend to target a guy and will move up to grab him from the mid to late 1st. That's just what happens.  If every team passes on a guy in R1 at the most important position, that will also get a 5th year option, it almost always means they pass on them in Round 2 as well.  The QB picks then tend to pick back up in R3. 

Allen, Mahomes, Watson, Jackson, Love, Bridgewater, Flacco, Cutler, all trade ups.  The ones that don't work out like Kyle Boller, JP Losman, Josh Freeman, they'll happen to.  It's so easy to just say "trade down, grab a guy round 2" but it's just not how it typically happens. Not saying that's what your getting at, but it's something so easy to say, yet something that rarely works out or happens.  No one in their right mind thought Hurts was going to be this type of slayer.  

To your point, how does the Late 1st crowd stack up against the Day-2ers in this group, especially if it's being overvalued?  How do Richardson, McKee compare to a Penix, Hall, Tune, etc.?  I'm unsure at this point, leaning a bit more on the McKee/Richardson train though. 

Richardson is a HUGE gamble and he needs the Jordan Love career path to be successful.  As a day 1 starter, dude's career will never take off; set up for failure. Funny that the 'raw' tag is used/avoided depending on bias.  Even though the dude is wildly inexperienced, proponents are staying away from that label.  McKee has the prototypical size, but lacks production. McKee is not a first rounder in value, I don't care if he gets drafted there. I'm not sure Pennix makes it all the way into the first round.  Hooker would have been my 'Lamar Jackson' pick this draft, but the ACL injury hurt his draft stock. 

The value is later on.  Pennix, Ward, DJ U., Jefferson, McCall, Duggan, Tune, Rogers could all go between rounds 2-4.  Again, this QB draft is not top heavy, but there is value in the middle. Build known studs at other positions and stop mind-numbing forcing  of the QB situation.

 

[BrisbanePanther]

I personally think that just like some don't want to reach on a QB at the top of a draft, that's also the one position where you don't draft for value. QB is the only position where you should draft when and where you want, not because he was good value or was BPA. How many BPA or value QBs have delivered championships?

Besides, with QB, true value is not defined by the number where they were drafted, but by the numberof seasons in SB conversations. No one cares now about the draft capital that Buffalo and KC gave up to draft theirs where they wanted them. I think if FO believes that Young or Stroud is the guy, package the picks to move up. If they don't, I'd rather they focus on skill positions, and then package picks next year for Maye or Williams.

[saX man]

49 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

Richardson is a HUGE gamble and he needs the Jordan Love career path to be successful.  As a day 1 starter, dude's career will never take off; set up for failure. Funny that the 'raw' tag is used/avoided depending on bias.  Even though the dude is wildly inexperienced, proponents are staying away from that label.  McKee has the prototypical size, but lacks production. McKee is not a first rounder in value, I don't care if he gets drafted there. I'm not sure Pennix makes it all the way into the first round.  Hooker would have been my 'Lamar Jackson' pick this draft, but the ACL injury hurt his draft stock. 

The value is later on.  Pennix, Ward, DJ U., Jefferson, McCall, Duggan, Tune, Rogers could all go between rounds 2-4.  Again, this QB draft is not top heavy, but there is value in the middle. Build known studs at other positions and stop mind-numbing forcing  of the QB situation.

 

It's all relative--I think two of the better prospects that could be that fringe 1st range are returning to school in Ward & Daniels.  Penix as mentioned is a bit of a mystery from what I've gathered even considering the year he's had.  

You have to weigh the risk/reward.  If this is the scenario, it means we're getting another non-QB at the top of the draft.  The roster is going to start filling out, top talent year after year in Burns, Brown, Chinn, Horn, Ekwonu, and with this a new playmaker..so you have to just take those gambles at a certain point. 

I'd rather ensure we get our favorite this time, especially for a fresh new HC and not hand him a leftover to pair with another leftover in Corral.   I'm taking a late 1st investment with big upside over just waiting for whoever is left come mid-R2 (if this scenario shakes out position wise).