Maybe Teddy Bridgewater wasn’t that bad….

[Aussie Tank]

1 hour ago, CPantherKing said:

This is very straight forward.

There are LIMITED opportunities to produce GWD for every QB. A rookie contract is 5 years. On a bad team they will have on average 10 opportunities in a season. On a good team they will have 5 opportunities.

QBs who do not produce 30% GWD rarely win in the playoffs and even more rarely win a SB championship.

Fields has 2 GWD in 18 opportunities. It is easier for a .100 hitter in the MLB to become a .300 hitter than it is for a QB to go from .100 to .300 in 5 NFL seasons. It may even be easier for a .100 hitter to get to .400 in MLB, and that is not easy to do. A QB like Fields has a career of 9 seasons at the most. So, if he does make it to the playoffs consistently at some point in his career, he will have 65 opportunities.  That leaves him with 47 more opportunities and he would need to have 18 more GWD to pull even with 30%. He will need to be a .400 hitter from here on out to prove he is capable of winning a SB. He is currently a low .100 hitter. Place your bets. The clock is ticking.

Here is the other part of it. College QBs do not improve their college GWD in the NFL. If they couldn't do it in the NFL, then your hope is they are at best a great game manager that you need to plan on having a great defense to win a championship for your team.

Justin Fields was tested in 2 games in college. He lost both of them. 0 GWD and 2 Ls. He has yet to prove he is any better than Sam Darnold. Fields, Mayfield and Darnold are prime examples of what a big school program can do with their defense, OL, and skill position players to pump up the stock of a game managing QB. This translates very poorly to the NFL.

Cam Newton rattled off 6 GWD in one season at Auburn. He was 1.000 at Auburn. If you include his Blinn college year, he was a .900 GWD QB in college. That of course came down in the NFL. Cam is a prime example of a QB who comes up short, and it showed in the SB.

Most QBs who win the SB win it in their first 2 to 3 seasons as a starting QB. Then they have the potential to establish a dynasty. Stafford (y13 SB [injury plagued first 2 seasons], 28.0% GWD by S32), Mahomes (y2 SB; 36.4% GWD by S2), Brady (y1 SB; 35.3% GWD by S32), Foles (y6 SB; 31.6% GWD by S32), Wilson (y2 SB; 50.0% GWD by S32), P Manning (y9 SB; 33.3% GWD by S32), E Manning (y4 SB; 26.3% GWD by S32), Flacco (y2 SB; 20% GWD by S32), Rodgers (y3 SB; 21.1 % GWD by S32), Brees (y8 SB; 31.6% GWD by S32), Roethlisberger (y2 SB; 43.8% GWD by S32)

You can do your best to find NFL champion QBs who can't produce GWD in their first 32 starts. Keep hope alive for Fields, but he really is that bad in the clutch.  He is currently sitting at 11.1% GWD in 21 starts. 11 more starts to go, and he will need 4 more GWD and no more than 2 losses in the next 11 games to hit 30% GWD.

Teams will learn the hard way, but Garappolo>Lance and Foles>Fields if they want their team to win.

What’s your thoughts on Carr? 

[frankw]

5 hours ago, CPantherKing said:

Cam Newton rattled off 6 GWD in one season at Auburn. He was 1.000 at Auburn. If you include his Blinn college year, he was a .900 GWD QB in college. That of course came down in the NFL. Cam is a prime example of a QB who comes up short, and it showed in the SB.

There are things to be learned from these numbers but it isn't the end all be all. You can bash the guy if it makes you feel better but we'd be damn lucky to draft a QB anywhere near his caliber of talent again. But as important as talent is it takes the right coach to maximize those abilities. Mahomes is looking to go down as the next goat but if he ended up with a Ron Rivera instead of Andy Reid who knows how his career would have started off. The same can be said with Tom Brady. Conversely imagine what Newton would have looked like with this version of Andy Reid.

[CPantherKing]

6 hours ago, Aussie Tank said:

What’s your thoughts on Carr? 

Carr is an Aaron Rodgers type QB. I would expect him to win a SB every 10 years or so with a good defense and supporting crew around them. Carr and Rodgers have hero moments that stand out and are good when it comes to winning a game, but they do take a few too many risks and come up short more than the elite QB. They could easily be considered a QB that can carry a bad team and may even look like an MVP with a couple elite players around them.

A Mahomes, Brady, or Garappolo type QB will out play a Carr or a Rodgers in the 4th quarter.

I like Carr. You can win with Carr, but you better have a defense that can create turnovers and a special teams that can change field position more often than not.

In Carr's first 32 starts he had a 21.4 GWD%. He has raised that to a 29.4 GWD%. Good QBs on bad teams will have a 30% GWD. In Carr's best season he had a 70.0 GWD%, and last season he had a 46.2% GWD. Both those Raiders teams gave Carr 10+ GWD opportunities. They were bad teams that would have never seen the playoffs with a QB like Fields. Rodgers had a 50.0%GWD in his best season. If Carr had the level of coaching and talent around him that Rodgers has had in his career, Carr would be considered an MVP candidate.

Last I checked Carr was ranked 15th in GWD% and capable of directing a championship contending team. He is in his 9th season, and I would expect his career to last for 15 to 18 seasons with his style of play.

[OldhamA]

On 11/23/2022 at 2:20 PM, hepcat said:

You’re missing the point entirely. It’s not that I love Justin Fields, far from it. The point is, it was clearly the right decision for the Panthers to draft him. Even after they traded for Darnold. It’s highlighting the continued failure of the previous and current regime to draft a replacement for Cam Newton.

There were multiple opportunities to draft a QB prospect in 2020 and 2021 and they passed on them all. 

They passed on Mahomes too.

I'm extremely happy with Horn. I think Fields is a mediocre QB who can only influence games when he runs, which drastically increases his risk of injury. Case in point; he's already got a separated shoulder.

[LinvilleGorge]

6 minutes ago, OldhamA said:

They passed on Mahomes too.

I'm extremely happy with Horn. I think Fields is a mediocre QB who can only influence games when he runs, which drastically increases his risk of injury. Case in point; he's already got a separated shoulder.

You can't blame us for passing on Mahomes. We had no idea that QB would soon be a huge need for us.

[CPantherKing]

8 hours ago, frankw said:

There are things to be learned from these numbers but it isn't the end all be all. You can bash the guy if it makes you feel better but we'd be damn lucky to draft a QB anywhere near his caliber of talent again. But as important as talent is it takes the right coach to maximize those abilities. Mahomes is looking to go down as the next goat but if he ended up with a Ron Rivera instead of Andy Reid who knows how his career would have started off. The same can be said with Tom Brady. Conversely imagine what Newton would have looked like with this version of Andy Reid.

Andy Reid would not be looking for a QB like Newton. He values footwork, accuracy, and quick throws in the pocket. Those were Newton's flaws and led to several inaccurate short passes and overthrown 5 to 10 yard sideline passes.

I agree with you on the coach. Heinicke is being coached by Rivera now and he is performing at a higher level than Fields. I believe Andy Reid would get more out of Heinicke, but Heinicke is still going to produce under Rivera. The Panthers only gave him 1 start. Heinicke had a 42.3% GWD coming out of college. The highest of all QBs the Panthers had post Cam Newton's injury (Grier, Allen, Teddy, Darnold, Mayfield, Corral, and Walker). Now, he seems like a surprise QB when this was already known. He should have been given 5 to 10 starts with the Panthers when the others failed - not 1 start. Hurney and Rivera brought Heinicke with them and now he is winning games with a strong 33.3% GWD - placing him in the top 10 QBs among SB winning QBs. Heinicke will be a starter in the NFL with playoff success for some time. Heinicke can go toe to toe with the likes of Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and Aaron Rodgers.

Teddy may be better than Darnold and Mayfield, but everything that mattered pointed to the Panthers keeping Heinicke and Newton until Heinicke replaced Newton or the Panthers found a more productive NFL QB. That would have required patience as Cam Newton pre-injury and Heinicke not only gave the Panthers a better chance at winning games, they were among the top 25 active QBs in the NFL back in 2018. Cam Newton needed to be replaced after the injury, but he should have never been replaced with a healthy QB that has proven they are not as capable of winning an NFL game in the 4th quarter or playoffs.

You'll be surprised how accurate this method of QB evaluation is and how it translates from college to the NFL much better than traditional scouting and the issues with good college QBs with big programs who are unprepared and never translate to the NFL - even as a Heisman winner or national champion.

Edited November 24, 2022 by CPantherKing

[OldhamA]

5 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

You can't blame us for passing on Mahomes. We had no idea that QB would soon be a huge need for us.

I did, it already was.

[LinvilleGorge]

35 minutes ago, OldhamA said:

I did, it already was.

Sure you did.

 

[PleaseCutStewart]

Teddy's the guy that can secure a big lead as QB, but can never take you the length of the field for a TD when you need 1. QBs like that aren't hard to find.

Nothing against Teddy, as he's the best QB we have had in the past 3 seasons, but he's a bridge QB/backup QB/starting QB for the bottom 20% of the league. Nothing more.

[LinvilleGorge]

8 hours ago, CPantherKing said:

Andy Reid would not be looking for a QB like Newton. He values footwork, accuracy, and quick throws in the pocket. Those were Newton's flaws and led to several inaccurate short passes and overthrown 5 to 10 yard sideline passes.

I agree with you on the coach. Heinicke is being coached by Rivera now and he is performing at a higher level than Fields. I believe Andy Reid would get more out of Heinicke, but Heinicke is still going to produce under Rivera. The Panthers only gave him 1 start. Heinicke had a 42.3% GWD coming out of college. The highest of all QBs the Panthers had post Cam Newton's injury (Grier, Allen, Teddy, Darnold, Mayfield, Corral, and Walker). Now, he seems like a surprise QB when this was already known. He should have been given 5 to 10 starts with the Panthers when the others failed - not 1 start. Hurney and Rivera brought Heinicke with them and now he is winning games with a strong 33.3% GWD - placing him in the top 10 QBs among SB winning QBs. Heinicke will be a starter in the NFL with playoff success for some time. Heinicke can go toe to toe with the likes of Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and Aaron Rodgers.

Teddy may be better than Darnold and Mayfield, but everything that mattered pointed to the Panthers keeping Heinicke and Newton until Heinicke replaced Newton or the Panthers found a more productive NFL QB. That would have required patience as Cam Newton pre-injury and Heinicke not only gave the Panthers a better chance at winning games, they were among the top 25 active QBs in the NFL back in 2018. Cam Newton needed to be replaced after the injury, but he should have never been replaced with a healthy QB that has proven they are not as capable of winning an NFL game in the 4th quarter or playoffs.

You'll be surprised how accurate this method of QB evaluation is and how it translates from college to the NFL much better than traditional scouting and the issues with good college QBs with big programs who are unprepared and never translate to the NFL - even as a Heisman winner or national champion.

Oh lord, another self proclaimed QB guru emerges.

Whenever you think player evaluation boils down to one very specific metric, you can rest assured that you're missing a LOT.

[firefox1234]

9 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Oh lord, another self proclaimed QB guru emerges.

Whenever you think player evaluation boils down to one very specific metric, you can rest assured that you're missing a LOT.

It’s heartwarming that he blesses us with his expertise for free and not out there showing it to the world.